JBChiangRai

I am not sure which version I am on, but it does spell Torque correctly.

The Compound Annual Growth Rate in China is expected to be 17.5% per year over the next 5 years. China expects sales of 22 million EV's this year. You have to remember treble digit percentage growth is not sustainable as the market matures. What's important to note is whether the market is growing, static or declining. China's market is growing and expected to do so over the next 5 years. China EV Market - Size, Growth & Industry Share (mordorintelligence.com) EV's are expected to get significantly cheaper this year as battery prices drop by a third this year. Interestingly, guess which batteries go in Toyota's bZ4x? if you guessed BYD you would be right. Toyota has no capacity to go EV.

Agreed, exponential is not the right word, ever increasing market share is a better description. Your posts about EV, confirm you are ignorant on this subject. I am absolutely certain I am far better informed than you are, and I stand by my opinion. You are the one with blinkers. All auto manufacturers will develop Hydrogen vehicles for markets where Electric is unsuitable and for some commercial vehicles. They may also develop them due to lack of availability of raw materials for BEV's. What they won't do is replace BEV for reasons I explained in my earlier post (cost) as already seen via Pib's post above about Hydrogen prices in California. Whilst 14 times more expensive is largely due to scarcity and lack of economies of scale, it will always be at least 5 times more expensive per kilometer for a Hydrogen car compared to a BEV. Market dynamics will dictate the rest, where a BEV is available, which do you want, the car that's cheap to run or the one that costs 5 times more? see above

I didn't answer your question on tariffs in Thailand. Yes they do apply tariff's on imported vehicles, but less so on Chinese EV's if you comply with their option of making vehicles here for both the domestic market and export. They are not trying to penalise China's EV's, they are being very enlightened in my opinion, they want to protect their vehicle manufacturing base and not lose it to other Asian countries. It's going to be interesting to see what happens in the EU and UK.

Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics. according to The Global Electric Vehicle Market In 2023 – Virta global EV sales are up 40% in 2023 (a prediction made late in the year). Deloitte are forecasting in excess of 40% of vehicle sales will be Ev's by 2030, compare that with Toyoda who was wrong before. They forecast that 4 years ago and interestingly, their forecast for 2023 was bang on. Electric vehicle trends | Deloitte Insights Goldman Sachs are forecasting 50% of all vehicle sales by 2035 will be EV's. Toyota I believe are wrong and scaremongering to protect their legacy business. The EU is expected to be at 100% of new vehicle sales being EV by then. I think all BEV's have an artificial noise that fades out at 20-30km/h, you can turn it off on some vehicles like BYD on others you can't. The Prius doesn't use an artificial engine noise, they use alternating low and high tones to warn pedestrians it's there because it is silent.

It's going to be a very long time before we know who is right, you or me. Most countries (Thailand included) are replacing their fossil generation with EV with renewables as fast as they can. I am not sure about China. I have had a few classic cars, I would convert them to EV in a heartbeat if I still had them and if I was in a country with a thriving EV conversion process, like the UK. I've had too many problems with classic car engines. The challenge is charging facilities for a lot of the population and for commercial vehicles, though I do think they may go Hydrogen too, let's see how well Tesla's semi sells, if and when it gets to market. I am certain EV's are here to stay, but I do see a multi-tier market, BEV's, Hydrogen fuel cells, Hydrogen ICE, biopetrol (this is Porsche's preferred route for the 911 model only, all other models they are committed to BEV). BEV's success is going to be entirely down to how well they compare in price to ICEV, if all we get are offerings like Toyota's bZ4x then they will fail. If we get Chinese and Tesla competing with the Chinese, then they will succeed.

Firstly, the US is a special case because they don’t have the Chinese EV’s there to any significant representation. They are also applying tariff’s to skew the market. It’s more representational to look at countries that don’t apply tariffs, eg Thailand. Growth here is exponential, of course it will tail off with market saturation and availability, eg pickup trucks. Regarding anti-EV propaganda, I don‘t have anything other than anecdotal evidence (posts about Toyota having revolutionary technology that will destroy the EV industry when it’s nothing more than the changes made to a petrol engine to enable it to run on CNG et al). I was careful to say it’s my humble opinion. We are seeing websites like lagradaonline pop up and in the course of their first week around 10 anti-EV articles, someone with motive is behind it. It was the type of thing Russia and Cambridge Analytics did in the trump election Regarding Nio, they are an unusual case because they can be classed more of a startup then an established manufacturer, their sales volumes are tiny. It reminds me of fake it till you make it. BYD are immensely profitable with much higher margins than Tesla mostly because they manufacture most of what they need in house eg semiconductors and plastics.

I am not sure that is true. I accept their margins are artificially high because of state subsidies.

Because IMHO Toyota are behind a lot of the Anti-EV propaganda, EV’s catch fire, EV’s have range anxiety, EV’s can’t get wet etc etc Their Chairman (CEO until he was fired) is on an anti-EV crusade. They are trying to obfuscate all the reasons why EV sales volumes are growing exponentially, eg people like them, they like the acceleration, they like the silence, they like charging at home etc. I don’t think you can underestimate the threat legacy automakers face.

This guy is a dinosaur and his position has changed from EV’s will fail to EV’s will have a maximum 30% market share. IMHO he is still wrong. Toyota are crapping themselves because their manufacturing cost of an EV is higher than the price Chinese EV’s are being retailed. It’s even worse because Tesla and Chinese EV manufacturers have sorted out their supply chains for batteries and lithium and there’s insufficient left to support them.

Unfortunately, manure and poop produce methane which you still have to crack using a lot of energy to produce Hydrogen. Biogas is mostly methane too. You can use methane directly, it’s a hydrocarbon with all the after combustion pollutants that entails. But at least it is renewable this way though I doubt it’s scalable to replace petrol and diesel.

If you look at this thread You will see that even other EV manufacturers are facing an existential threat, it's even worse for late-to-market legacy manufacturers who havent yet got their supply chains or EV product range sorted out. In the case of Toyota, they are woefully behind because their late CEO (Toyoda) was fired by the board and kicked upstairs because of his anti-EV stand. Toyota have one EV here, it's the bZ4x which compares unfavourably on every metric with the MG4 at less than half the price. They face an existential threat and a lot of the anti-EV and pro Hydrogen propaganda is coming from them, IMHO.

Incidentally, I am more than a bit suspicious of LagradaOnline, I think Toyota are behind it. They are trying to obfuscate the truth about EV's because they know they face an existential threat. The graphic below is a list of all the articles on that website, it's clear what they are attempting to do.

This is a post I made in response to someone suggesting Hydrogen is the future and not BEV. There is a place for Hydrogen powered vehicles, but alongside BEV's, not instead of. The reasons are simple, but the biggest one is cost. Green Hydrogen is obtained by using renewables (typically solar) to make Electricity. At this point you can put it into your BEV and get an efficiency level of (let's call it) 1. For Hydrogen production you then have to electrolyse water to get your Hydrogen, you then have to compress it using some of your electricity, transfer it to tankers, send those tankers to Hydrogen fuel stations (using some of your Hydrogen to run the tanker), transfer it into the fuel stations tanks, then later pump it into cars using more electricity. Your car can either use the hydrogen like a CNG or LPG car would, giving you an efficiency level of about 0.15 (6 times more expensive than a BEV) or the car can have a fuel cell giving you an efficiency level of about 0.2 (5 times more expensive than a BEV). So it will come down to consumer choice, do you want a BEV which is 5 times cheaper per kilometer than a Hydrogen powered car? or do you want the Hydrogen car? Now let's look at fuel tax. I can't see how a government can charge more tax on the electricity for a BEV, but they may want to tax Hydrogen, increasing the cost of running a Hydrogen car even further. Market dynamics will take care of the rest. Obviously the consumer will want the car that's cheaper to run, the BEV. So to sell Hydrogen cars they will have to be cheaper. Hydrogen powered vehicles are likely to be buses, large trucks and the like. There is no way Hydrogen powered cars are going to be preferred by the consumer.

I will charge it up later this week and tell you

I have only done 700km in my AWD and no long journeys yet, I may drive to Chiang Mai later in the week so I will let you know.

In some countries Tesla's sales actually dropped 2023 compared to 2022, Germany, UK and China IIRC

There is a place for Hydrogen powered vehicles, but alongside BEV's, not instead of. The reasons are simple, but the biggest one is cost. Green Hydrogen is obtained by using renewables (typically solar) to make Electricity. At this point you can put it into your BEV and get an efficiency level of (let's call it) 1. For Hydrogen production you then have to electrolyse water to get your Hydrogen, you then have to compress it using some of your electricity, transfer it to tankers, send those tankers to Hydrogen fuel stations (using some of your Hydrogen to run the tanker), transfer it into the fuel stations tanks, then later pump it into vars using more electricity. Your car can either use the hydrogen like a CNG or LPG car would, giving you an efficiency level of about 0.15 (6 times more expensive than a BEV) or the car can have a fuel cell giving you an efficiency level of about 0.2 (5 times more expensive than a BEV). So it will come down to consumer choice, do you want a BEV which is 5 times cheaper per kilometer than a Hydrogen powered car? or do you want the Hydrogen car? Now let's look at fuel tax. I can't see how a government can charge more tax on the electricity for a BEV, but they may want to tax Hydrogen, increasing the cost of running a Hydrogen car even further. Market dynamics will take care of the rest. Obviously the consumer will want the car that's cheaper to run, the BEV. So to sell Hydrogen cars they will have to be cheaper. Hydrogen powered vehicles are likely to be buses, large trucks and the like. There is no way Hydrogen powered cars are going to be preferred by the consumer.

Tesla doesn’t have the margins to compete with BYD who make everything from plastics to semiconductors in house. If Tesla can’t compete, how will that play out with American, German and Japanese auto manufacturers who can’t even manufacture cars for the price Chinese manufacturers retail them. The world is changing (I feel it in the water, I feel it in the earth, and I smell it in the air).

I drove both Tesla Model 3 and BYD Seal when buying, there was no comparison, the Seal was far more comfortable and a superior car.

BYD are outselling Tesla by a factor of 10 in Thailand. It's Tesla's own fault, half a dozen price cuts everywhere except Thailand. Tesla cars are a little old looking now.

I think it’s all about how the request was made, and then you should consider it if it was made politely, then do whatever you feel is appropriate.

Wow, what a chip you have on your shoulder.

Yes, just set the temperature on the AC and it does the rest.

I think the issue is that import tax in neighbouring countries is fairly similar to Thailand, the difficulty then becomes getting the car into Singapore, Malaysia, Laos etc.