swissie

Compared to Gold, Silver is plentyful and therefore relatively cheap. Comperatively "little money" can move the price of Silver over proportionally. Always remembering the "Hunt Brothers", cornering the market with the help of the former broker "Prudential Bache". Unless somebody new corners the market again, I can not see the price of Silver hitting 50$ per ounce again during my livetime.

Here is a problem. One can not store Gold for free, unless one stores physical Gold under the matress. Be it futures, ETF's or other instruments, there is always a "carrying charge". Even storing Gold in a safety deposit box at the bank costs an annual fee. Just assuming that over the last 20 years an annual "carrying charge" of a modest 3% would have applyed, with compound interest and missed interest by other investements, (missed opportunity cost) the above quoted (theoretical) 394% gain of Gold would be greatly diminished. = Warren Buffet never liked Gold. The price of Gold doesn't follow financial/world events tick by tick. Lenghty periods of "dormancy" can be observed. Only to readjust on quick periodical strong "outbursts" on the upside. I believe such a corrective "outburst on the upside" is currently taking place. To be followed by a lenghty period of relative "dormancy" again.

Good enough. My (boring) investements produced satisfactory results over time.

The same mathematics would apply. But I limit my gambling to the greatest Casino that was ever invented: WALL STREET There I can appear as a "serious investor" (respected by everyone). But I can act as a ruthless gambler (with 10% of my liquid assets only) as well. My ruthless gambling in Commodities is legendary. Unfortunately, while my investements produced some nice returns (no complaints), my gambling netted only a measely 40'000 US$ over time. But must confess, the gambling was always more fun and exiting than investing. Something like having a wife for 40 years (=solid investing) and having an exotic dancer simultainiously (=trading) on the side. To dance on 2 different dance floors at the same time is possible, as long as the 2 different dance floors are strictly kept seperate.

Why all this? Back to the root of everything: "HOMO HOMINI LUPUS EST".

Quote: "If the stock goes down you keep buying more and more. At some point during the session the stock will go back up and you will be able to exit". The thing about "averaging down" is, that in order to stay close to the average price of the position, one would have to average down as follows: Original position buy 1 Stock @ 100$ add 2 " add 4 " add 8 " add 16 " Total= 31 Stocks It shows that even after averaging down only 4 times, the total exposure will have increased from 100$ to 3100$. If by then the stock shoulden't have reversed the downtrend, then it's strictly OUUUUPS! Also from a capital management point of view, averaging down can be hazardous. Here too, mathematics offer no free lunch. Quote: "A trader operates on weeks or months". No, a short term trader operates within a time frame of 30 seconds to 2 to 3 days. To remain on focus: This thread is about short term trading.

Thanks for your interest and participation. Your points work fine for long term investors, but not for short term traders. 1) The roulette table at Las Vegas offers a 50% chance of winning. The bid/ask spread and other "carrying charges/commissions" drop to below 50% for the trader operating on "the markets". 2) Dollar cost averaging works fine for long term investors, But not for short term traders. = Throwing good money after bad. A drop of 10% for a leveraged short term trader is absolutely a "main event". 3) see 2 4) Roulet gamblers and short term traders are subject to the same mathematical obstacles. As the las Vegas gambler only would stick to red or white. But no, they have to bet on individual numbers, thus abandoning the "natural" 50/50 chance.. 5) The 1% rule only applies to short term trading ONLY. 6) Leverage is a blessing. But mostly, in the long run, a course. As much as I appreciate your contribution, they are focused on "long term investing". But this is about short term trading and it's fundamental opportunities/pitfalls. Not to be confused with "long term investing". To compare long term investing versus comparing short term trading is comparing Oranges with Apples. ------------------------------------------ In a future post, I will outline why major Brokerage Houses rake in massive profits, whyle at the same time their "retail customers" lose money year after year. Once involved in "short term trading". As I worked for one of them in the "trading-room" for a few years. But that is another story. "Cost averaging" for long term investors with regard to the Japonese Nikkey 224 had to wait 30 years to break even. As a sidenote.

To trade or not to trade, that is the question. According to Shakespeare. Just considering mathematics alone, this time around. a) Most short term trades produce a loss (Broker statistics, retail traders). b) Given that, even recovering a 10% loss is hard to do. c) Improve the odds by: Limiting your losses to 1% per trade. One can lose 10 times in a row. A single profit of 10% will keep you in the game. Not so, if one loses 10% 10 times in a row. Then, you are out of the game. For short term traders, mathematics is a merciless master. Having said that, trading "highly leveraged" with regard to "capital base" will eventually lead to "game over". - Often have I come accross Farangs, determined to settle in Thailand, planning to make a living in Thailand by trading the markets. By strictly adhering to the maximum 1% loss rule, a capital stock of around 200'000 US$ would be required. Any amount below would force a trader to "leverage" his trades in order to make a "possible living" in Thailand. But: "Leverage" and mathematics are not your friend. --------------------------------------------- When it comes to make a living in Thailand I can not recommend "trading the markets". Rather: As a viral, witty, charming and flamboyant Farang, it should be possible to conquer the heart of a financially well established Thai female. A much more relaxed lifestyle awaiting, instead of having to watch NVIDIA, tick by tick, 24/7.

More than that. Even minor banks and financial institutions today have their "financial experts". Guiding their "financial sheep" tru todays financial djungle. Thousands of "experts" giving daily advice on the internet for their "investor sheep", making good use of the fact that humans are "herd animals". Soon, the "financial experts" will outnumber the "investor sheep". When things turn south, the commom explanation will be (as usual) "nobody has seen it coming", while having collected fat bonuses before things went south. Easy for me to find a thousand "experts" recommending to buy Gold, versus a thousand "experts" recommending to sell Gold. Needless to say that I don't like "financial experts". The old joke comes to mind: "Look at all the yachts of the financial experts. But where are the yachts if their customers"?

Nobody does it for free. That's where the bid/ask spread comes into play. But 10% below?

Usually, "refugees" have limited financial resources. Running out of money, not allowed to work. Next step: Turning to criminal offences to make ends meet. The same thing happens in Europe and the US. Anything new?

Thais have their "Thai-Gold". They don't go by "Ounces". Example: A couple of years ago I wanted to sell some 1 oz gold bars and some Kruegerrand coins to my Thai Bank. Against a receipt, they took in the merchandise for "assessement". A week later, the amount was credited to my Thai account. At a discount of 10% below bid/ask spread in New York or Zuerich. Conclusion: Whatever is denominated in Ounces, or not considered "Thai Gold" don't sell it in Thailand.

Currency exchange rates do matter. I don't observe "currency baskets" much. But I do constantly watch 2 "hard currencies". The US$ versus the Swiss Franc. Since the beginning of the year, the "hard currency" (Swiss Franc) has collapsed against the US$. US$ from 0.83 to 0.90. Signaling that the US$ universe is perfectly intact and above any doubt. Granted, the swiss national bank has eased interest rates by 1/4%, ahead of anyone else, but the collapse of the Swiss Franc started before that. Conclusion: Official statements issued by central banks is one thing, but what they actually do in "the markets" is another thing. For private investors, it's another "enigma". More and more "enigmas" seem to emerge globally. PS: Swiss investors have not made any money by investing in the US stock market lately. Truly, currency exchange rates DO matter.

Unfortunately you are right. I would not recommend to be part of any "western womans liberation army". Especially as the "Isaan- spirit" has not yet been affected by the "Bankkok Ways" in a meaningful way. Inspite of a hundred western NGO's, that tell Thai Females that the time to "awaken" is here. Remarkably, most rural Thai Females still don't know from what they sould be awaken from.

There are so many official and private statistics available that prove that the "Central-Banks" are the main buyers of Gold. I would like to know why in such a situation "private investors" rather sell their Gold, instead of following "the central banks policy" of accumulating gold, instead of selling it. Again: I called this thread "The Enigma of Gold". With good reason.

My sister in law is awaiting a further "correction" after a botched- up hip operation in a first- class Melbourne hospital. Describing Opium Pain Killers as the only remedy as they will try to rectify the problem with further invasive operations. (April 22). If that doesn't work, an increase of Opiod Pain killers will serve as the ultimate solution.

I remain: The central banks are gobbeling up Gold massively. At the same time Private Investors get rid of their Gold holdings. There is a good reason I called this thread as "the Gold Enigma".

Old is old, right? Not quite, I find. Males get old as well as females. But once a European female has reached 60, all attraction has evaporated. European Males at this age can still sail under " a desirable charakter with wrinkles and a fat wallet". Attributes that a European female at the age of 60 can seldom deliver. My observance: Thai women at the age of 60 have less "wrinkles" and have maintained a certain openess and a "spark" toward sexuality. As opposed to Farang Females at the same age, where no more "spark" can be detected anymore. No wonder that elderly Farangs with relatively few wrinkles end up in Thailand, knowing that regardless of age, a certain "spark", administered by Thai females, regardless of age, can still be had. At a price. "There is no free lunch", well understood. As there is no "free lunch" to be had with a wrinkeled-up European women, the choice becomes somewhat easier.

Will do. Remarkable is that I have this problem only for 4 to 5 weeks. No long term "sneeking-up" on me, as usually is the case, concerning "hip-problems". I shall see.

My hip (right side) is strarting to hurt. Little walking, little sports. Should I start walking more or less to delay hip surgery?

A question: Why are central banks buying Gold as if there were no tomorrow (especially third world countries) while private investors are selling their Gold and ETF Gold certificates? WHY THIS?

Hard to find anyone that isen't "bullish" these days. All very well supported by increasing profits and increasing dividends is the consensus. Fine! About half of investement decisions are made by "gut feelings" (psychologie). What if investors "feel" that after such a good bull-run, some profits should be realised? Our Mike Lister is not the only one thinking along those lines. Most bull markets stall out before the fundamentals would justify increased selling. (Psychology: Enough is enough, I want to see some tangible cash and can always re-enter the markets after "a little correction"). Bull Markets can only continue if investors refuse to sell AND new money enters the markets. Those 2 factors must not necessarily reflect the state of the Economy, short term. But lo and behold, seldom have "fundamentals" supported a bull-market like we experience it currently (inflation down, interest rates on the way down, profits rising). Investors paradise! When it comes to "paradise", I advice caution. After all, God closed the Jerusalem Stock Exchange for Adam and Eve for 2000 years, just when they thought that the party would never end.

IMO Dr. Copper has lost a great deal of relevance concerning "the fever curve" of the world economy. Too much depends on whats happening in China. Worldwide Copper stocks fluctuate wildly on a monthly basis. = roller coaster. The narrative of the "electrification of the world" is still intact, but this is a long term process, not helping Copper much in the short to mid term. If Cocoa should become a new economic indicator, I will stop investing altogether and I will store my assets under the matress.

So good to hear that you stay close to the fire-exit. Especially since aspestos fire suits and fire extinuishers "made in China" tend to underperform. Same as the Chinese Governement trying to "rejuvenate" the Chinese "Export Miracle" once more.

Hi Mike Lister! A while ago, I suggested to add a sub forum "investements" in ASEAN NOW. You volunteered to moderate. Thanks. But is has become appearant that a seperate "investement-forum" is not justified. I conclude that well funded Farangs have their sources of "investement-interactions/advice" already established somewhere else. In this forum here, the main concern of contributors seem to be "how to import/export money from Thailand at the lowest cost". Perfectly OK.