yuyiinthesky

3 hours ago, Yankeesvsredsox said:

2-4 am sounds more like it!

02:00 - 02:01 sounds better ????

3 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

Take the time to read the original report.  Do not be manipulated.  This is another example of uneducated  people taking a mathematical analysis and twisting it out of context. The author of the study used a derivatives hedging  model for his review.  We do not use financial models to predict public health outcomes because the are not comparable. The model requires that effective social distancing be in place. Know what? The public wasn't social distancing when this mess started and that's why the  lockdowns had to be imposed. It took the public a couple months to understand that social distancing was necessary.

 

Putting aside the suitability aspect, the OP has conveniently not stated is that this person is a supporter of the social distancing model. Yes, that's right. The modeler insists that it works and in fact his conclusions depend upon there being effective social distancing. How do we  obtain social distancing when people are non compliant? Sometimes there are draconian measures such as police enforcement. Mostly it is through general measures such as....................... wait for it............ a lockdown. 

 

 As a reminder, social distancing limits the number of people in stores, it imposes reduced capacity in restaurants and limits the number of customers in hair salons etc.  Keep this in mind when considering the mathematical model, because again I emphasize that you are being manipulated to believe that there is something written that we did not already know and that was one of the goals of the lockdowns- to allow a return to activity.

 

All that the author has said is that once the more serious measures are lifted,  spikes in the infections are not YET observed. He also states that if the infections have dropped and if social distancing is in place, the lockdown measures are not needed.  That's it.  No one can make a conclusion at this time because the loosening of restrictions is only being implemented now.   Common sense tells us that, yes, the lowered infection rates were what the lockdowns were intended to achieve: In plain language, they worked. The risk was contained which will allow a return to activity.  Now that the measures were effective, some are  taking this to mean that the lockdowns were not needed.  That is not what the model results show.

 

Note too that the  mathematical model does not take into account the measures that have been implemented such as tracing and  testing that were unavailable when the lockdowns were first introduced.  Nor are other factors taken into account such as summer weather which encourages people to avoid staying in cramped closed off places with others. 

 

Also keep in mind that the author of the report in his activity as a salesman of financial  instruments also had some exciting  headline  grabbing  "predictions" before ;

April 21, 2021 - JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Sees S&P at a Record in First Half of 2021

March 25, 2020 - JPMorgan Strategist Predicts Markets Will Surge 40%

Marko Kolanovic tells clients that social distancing is working and he expects coronavirus to soon be a memory. 

 

 

I offer that the position of  Kolanovic isn't saying anything  extraordinary because it  is based upon the effectiveness of social distancing which he champions. We will have people on this thread making the assumption that none of this was necessary. Well, if you don't social distance then the only way to stop the spread of an infectious respiratory disease is to  keep people separated through a lockdown.

 

Also note that JP Morgan has a work at home model even with  the  restrictions lifted in  its key office locations. JP Morgan has introduced workplace distancing measures that are intense. 

 

 

So many words, appearing to prove that the report is not correct, throwing in distancing and who knows what,  but at the end they just confirm that the JPMorgan report about lockdowns not altering the course of the pandemic is indeed correct.

24 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Cambodia imposed travel bans through all district and provincial borders in April

As usual, you are not well informed. These travel bans was to slow down travelling for the Khmer New Year celebration (same time and roots as in Thailand Songkran). And the district travel ban was never executed but cancelled immediately. All what was there was for the few days of the celebrations some checkpoints between Phnom Penh and the provinces. These were useless though, the ones wanting to travel home for Khmer New Year did so the days before already. 
Sorry, this does not qualify as a lockdown, not at all.
Please research better before making false statements.

30 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Japan has had a state of emergency in various restrictions and different prefectures.

State of emergency does not mean lockdown. 
Please research better before making false statements.

32 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Both examples constitute some form of lockdown, whatever Bloomberg says.

Both examples do not constitute a lockdown, whatever you say.

1 hour ago, gargamon said:

His agencies can't be trusted at the moment. They've been hiding desth counts and withholding information from the beginning. 

Currently I do not trust anything coming from either the blue or the red side, it‘s all desperate propaganda to win the next elections. 
I wish there would be other alternatives. 
 

As W. M. Briggs says so indisputably correct:

Quote

The virus was caused or exacerbated by the political party I disfavor.
If persons in the party I favored were listened to, this would not have been as big a crisis.

The virus spread so rapidly because of the actions of the party I disfavor.

The party I favor helped stem the tide and saved lives.

The crisis would have ended sooner, and more lives would have been saved, if the people in the party I hate were ignored.

Science saved us!

(Source: https://wmbriggs.com/post/30833/ somewhere in the 2nd half of the page)

2 hours ago, gargamon said:

Yes, please do. I have some bleach and a syringe here if you need it. I could also probably provide a UV light you could stick up your a**. 

 

When I watched him talking about it in the news conference, I was laughing my ass off so much, there was no way to follow his research proposal and stick ...

Nevertheless, trying to keep an open mind I did search about it, and to my surprise, indeed, there is a blood irradiation therapy, and it can even be done not involving sticking something up your ... „The extracorporeal (outside the body) method removes blood from the body and irradiates it in a special cuvette (tube).„
 

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood_irradiation_therapy
 

There was a lot of research around 1940 to 1950, and even with promising result when running tests with sick dogs. However with the antibiotics coming up it was not of big interest anymore.

So while I still have to chuckle every time I hear it, the basic idea is not totally unrealistic, not necessarily deadly, maybe possibly even deserving a little more research, maybe, possibly. (Sorry, still chuckling)

Where the hamsters allowed to take off the masks when exercising, running in their hamster wheel? 

1 hour ago, Traubert said:

Why would the Chinese be interested in someone as inconsequential as you?

They have a lot of experience there in „reeducating“ aka brainwashing in their concentration camps. Well tested procedures with millions of Uighurs.  So don‘t worry, they can fix everyone, even you.

But then again, you know that already.

8 hours ago, nauseus said:

Show me a country where decreased infection rates have not followed some form of lockdown.

 

I am not strongly into lockdowns, the only one that should have been necessary was in China. 

No problem.

As I mentioned many times, there is Cambodia, zero infections for more than a month now, no lockdown (for details please see the thread about comparing Thailand with Cambodia.

Then there is also Japan. „No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open.“
 

Quote

Did Japan Just Beat the Virus Without Lockdowns or Mass Testing?

By Lisa Du and Grace Huang

May 23, 2020, 5:00 AM GMT+7

Quote

Japan’s state of emergency is nearing its end with new cases of the coronavirus dwindling to mere dozens. It got there despite largely ignoring the default playbook.

 

No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open. No high-tech apps that tracked people’s movements were deployed. The country doesn’t have a center for disease control. And even as nations were exhorted to “test, test, test,” Japan has tested just 0.2% of its population -- one of the lowest rates among developed countries.

Yet the curve has been flattened, with deaths well below 1,000, by far the fewest among the Group of Seven developed nations. In Tokyo, its dense center, cases have dropped to single digits on most days. 

Source for quotes and images: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-22/did-japan-just-beat-the-virus-without-lockdowns-or-mass-testing

5 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Old stuff with inconclusive conclusions. They missed so much. 

Why did I know you would have to make such a comment ???? ????

11 hours ago, steelepulse said:

 

It is remarkable, isn't it, that all the lockdown fanatics would have you believe that lockdowns were so crucial in controlling the virus, and then it turns out that, well, actually, 'the vast majority of countries had decreased infection rates' after lockdowns were lifted'.

 

So lockdowns not so crucial after all then. Despite all the earnest hysteria.

Lockdowns and the preference towards lockdowns have a lot to do with how the governments think of their citizens.

Some think they are stupid, don't understand, and need to get forced to do what they should do, and impose draconian lockdowns, order the police to enforce them.

Others respect their citizens, treat them as adults, explain what they think they should do, allow discussion, encourage them to follow the guidelines, but respect their decision if they don't.

(I was astonished to see South Korea in the second group, they seem to have a lot of respect for their citizens there. Definitely on my list of countries to visit now.)

All what you can achieve with a draconian lockdown (assuming it would achieve something useful) you can achieve without it, as long as you have a convincing case for what you want and explain it to your citizens. 

So in my humble opionion this all boils down to the lockdown governments thinking they have to force their citizens because they are too stupid to understand. Which also leads to nonsense orders such as beach bans. A lot of the lockdown fans here seem to share that understanding of their fellow citizens, seeing them as being too stupid to understand.

Of course ordering lockdowns is much more easy than presenting good arguments. Or allowing discussions, questioning. Heaven forbid, different opinions, discussions, oh no (a big thanks for censoring and deleting them to Google, Twitter, FakeBook)!  So for many countries, and many posters here on TVF, "ordering" it is. 

On 5/14/2020 at 5:09 PM, steelepulse said:

Does this make sense to lock down the whole world?

Not at all!

29 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

On a personal note, I do hope Swedens strategy is a success, they have made some major mistakes with the elderly population, but if those had not been made then it does look like it has real potential, only more time will tell however and I look forward to the data they are currently gathering on the populations immunity level which is due soon. 

???? I fully agree.

18 minutes ago, chessman said:

You write stuff like that but the next post that suggests that Bill Gates is responsible for the whole crisis you’ll be all over it.

Well, I see that there is a conflict of interest in his activities, and I dare to say that. You might prefer to see an angel in him. I don't.

2 hours ago, Yorkshire Tea said:

Shop elsewhere.

That's what I do too.

3 hours ago, chessman said:

I’ll add an inability to detect sarcasm to your list of ‘skills’

Likewise.
You want to give, but you cannot take ????

54 minutes ago, Logosone said:

 

Confirmed. The Bill Gates foundation is a heavy benefactor of Imperial college, they admit it themselves:

 

https://www.gatesfoundation.org/How-We-Work/Quick-Links/Grants-Database/Grants/2020/03/OPP1210755

Wow, thanks! From that link at the gatesfoundation:

Quote

Date: March 2020 
Purpose: to develop a new tool for malaria control and elimination in sub-Saharan Africa 
Amount: $79,006,570 
Term: 60 
Topic: Malaria 
Program: Global Health 
Grantee Location: London 
Grantee Website: http://www.imperial.ac.uk 

"Date: March 2020" - Nice coincidence, just when Professor Lockdown got the world in panic mode. No wonder they attract so many conspiracy theories, they make it very easy.