yuyiinthesky

5 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

 

Johnson's government has made a lot of mistakes , and still continues to do so ... with an enormous death toll still rising , it is definitely too early to open up again .

The death toll a county suffers reflects the capability and intelligence of it's government .

 

Add to that the expected 50000 additional deaths from cancer due to skipped checkups and treatments, caused by the covid panic (according to Professor Karol Sikora, the Founding Dean and Professor of Medicine at the University of Buckingham Medical School and an ex-director of the WHO Cancer Programme, see his interview by unherd.com on youtube).

So we have already 50000 Covid-19 deaths, plus 50000 lockdown cancer deaths = 100000! As you say, "The death toll a country suffers reflects the capability and intelligence of its government" ! (your typos corrected)

4 hours ago, Phil McCaverty said:

377,000 deaths globally (so far), close to 40,000 in the UK. That's a lot of dead people no matter what metrics you use.

Indeed, a lot of death, and there are so many more:
 

Quote

5,462,582 Communicable disease deaths this year

204,949 Seasonal flu deaths this year

3,198,451 Deaths of children under 5 this year

130,061 Deaths of mothers during birth this year

41,835,618 HIV/AIDS infected people

707,375 Deaths caused by HIV/AIDS this year

3,455,919 Deaths caused by cancer this year

412,746 Deaths caused by malaria this year

2,103,545 Deaths caused by smoking this year

1,052,436 Deaths caused by alcohol this year

451,234 Suicides this year

568,024Road traffic accident fatalities this year

Source: Worldometer snapshot at exactly this moment, from https://www.worldometers.info

Let's start with the highest numbers, and do something to reduce them.
 

5 minutes ago, scubascuba3 said:

In the UK, the govt wanted lockdown, the opposition wanted lockdown, the media especially wanted lockdown, there were only a few lone voices arguing for no lockdown such as Peter Hitchens, so most will try to just sweep this under the carpet and say hindsight is a beautiful thing, but there is no way future epidemics can be tackled the same way, just way too costly and that's only just beginning to unfold

I'm not so sure about that. If the ones in power think a lockdown will help them to stay in power, win the next election, they will go for it, no matter the destruction and damage it causes - for others.

5 hours ago, webfact said:

Everyone is required to wear masks on the sands though they can take them off for swimming. 

 

What, take the masks off? Irresponsible, that will cause the second wave !

Published in the Elsevier Public Health Emergency Collection, an interesting study on infectivity of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers:
 

Quote

Background

An ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread around the world. It is debatable whether asymptomatic COVID-19 virus carriers are contagious. We report here a case of the asymptomatic patient and present clinical characteristics of 455 contacts, which aims to study the infectivity of asymptomatic carriers.

Material and methods

455 contacts who were exposed to the asymptomatic COVID-19 virus carrier became the subjects of our research. They were divided into three groups: 35 patients, 196 family members and 224 hospital staffs. We extracted their epidemiological information, clinical records, auxiliary examination results and therapeutic schedules.

Results

The median contact time for patients was four days and that for family members was five days. Cardiovascular disease accounted for 25% among original diseases of patients. Apart from hospital staffs, both patients and family members were isolated medically. During the quarantine, seven patients plus one family member appeared new respiratory symptoms, where fever was the most common one. The blood counts in most contacts were within a normal range. All CT images showed no sign of COVID-19 infection. No severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections was detected in 455 contacts by nucleic acid test.

Conclusion

In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.

Source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7219423/

So, 455 contacts of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers had been checked, and none of them got infected. NONE!!!

Not really an argument for forcing masks and distancing on healthy people, not even on asymptomatic virus carriers.
 

Coronavirus: Norway wonders if it should have been more like Sweden

Quote

Coronavirus: Norway wonders if it should have been more like Sweden

Cost of lockdown sees prime minister raise questions about strategy

 

On Wednesday night, Norway's prime minister Erna Solberg went on Norwegian television to make a startling admission: she had panicked. Some, even most, of the tough measures imposed in Norway's lockdown now looked like steps too far. "Was it necessary to close schools?" she mused. "Perhaps not."

 

It was a preemptive step only a leader with Solberg's folksy, down-to-earth style could get away with. "I probably took many of the decisions out of fear," she admitted, reminding viewers of the terrifying images then flooding their screens from Italy.

 

She is not the first in Norway to conclude that closing schools and kindergartens, making everyone work from home, or limiting gatherings to a maximum of five people might have been excessive....

Source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/30/coronavirus-norway-wonders-should-have-like-sweden/

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

So very similar to the lockdown in Thailand aside from not closing beaches, still serving alcohol and no curfew. Thanks

Hmm similar indeed:

You sit in and around the pool with your friends
- Thailand: Arrested, Fines
- Cambodia: no problem 

You sit in a restaurant, at a table together with your friends:
- Thailand: No no no, not even with your spouse.
- Cambodia: no problem 

You invite a few (2-4) friends for a little party, eat and drink together, in your private property:
- Thailand: No no no, snitches call police, police arrests you.
- Cambodia: no problem 

A neighbor complains to the police about noise from your house:
- Thailand: Even if it is quiet already when the police arrives, and everybody sleeps, they enter your house, check the fridge for alcohol, pull you out of the bed and arrest you.
- Cambodia: no problem 

You enter a supermarket or a mini mart without mask:
- Thailand: No no no! 
- Cambodia: no problem 

You enter a supermarket or minimart chain:
- Thailand: Register, load app, QR code, name phone number, in and out! 
- Cambodia: no problem, no registration

You go to the beach, alone or with a friend:
- Thailand: No no no, police arrests you. Fines.
- Cambodia: no problem 

You go to the beach and into the water for a healthy swim:
- Thailand: No no no, police pulls you out of the water, arrests you.
- Cambodia: no problem 

You drive around on your motorbike without mask:
- Thailand: No no no, police stops you. Fines up to 20000 THB.
- Cambodia: no problem 

You're in Asia somewhere, have a visa for TH/KH, and need to do a business trip to TH/KH (by air)

- Thailand: No no no, no international travel
- Cambodia: OK, quarantine, virus test, but OK 

You want go to another province:

- Thailand: 14 day quarantine on arrival, health stickers, village chief inspects you/your house! 
- Cambodia: no problem

You want / wanted go to the capital, or one of the big cities:

- Thailand: checkpoints (Pattaya, Phuket, etc), only documented essential travel allowed
- Cambodia: no checkpoints, please don't travel, but if you want, then so be it.

(Nevertheless, zero new cases for more than a month, no deaths.)

And you want to tell me it is "very similar"? ???? ???? ????


 

5 hours ago, ukrules said:

There's a lot more to this than first meets the eye.

 

Predictions based on models have assumed zero immunity and 100% of the population is vulnerable to this. That's now looking very wrong.

 

If you want to know more about this then google 'sars-cov-2 specific t cells cross reactive' which are present in about 40-60% of the population due to previous common cold infections, probably inside the last couple of years. The documents are mostly studies which are a little complicated but there are some articles which spell it out in a way which is easier to understand.

 

A specific as yet unknown common cold virus which is a coronavirus (there's only 4 of them that are endemic) provides this immune response and it's very widespread. They don't know which of the colds does it but I'm sure there's many people working on this in labs around the world right now.

 

Could one of the 4 existing HCoVs (common cold coronaviruses) function as an effective vaccine? My suspicion is that it could and this is what explains the very large number of very mild and asymptomatic cases.

 

The as far as I know first study published about this "40-60% of the population due to previous common cold infections":

https://www.cell.com/cell/pdf/S0092-8674(20)30610-3.pdf

3 minutes ago, Sheryl said:

Actually was a virtual lock down mot disimilar to what Thailand had. Schools closed (still are), sports events and any other large gathering banned, restaurants and hotels closed.  Ban on internationsl travel. Businesses urged to let people work from home and those that could, did including government offices. They weren't stopping people on the street to ask why they were out but then didn't do that here either.

 

 

I think you cannot say "a virtual lock down mot disimilar to what Thailand had", not at all.

Yes, government offices, banks, some shops in Phnom Penh, especially bigger ones, with temperature checks and alcohol at the entry. Only very few shops required masks, and that also only for a short time.

Yes, schools are closed, gyms too, and yes, large gatherings are banned. But International travel was not really banned, but travelers coming from some countries such as Iran, USA, Italy, France, etc. No visa on arrival, so tourism was made difficult. However there were and are all the time business travelers arriving at Phnom Penh airport, mainly from China or South Korea.

But there was no curfew, no beach ban, no alcohol ban, no travel ban (except travel from Phnom Penh to the Provinces during a few days at Khmer New Year, which was not really effective because most did travel the days before already). These are the draconian lockdown measures which cause so much frustration in Thailand, and Cambodia did not implement them.

"restaurants and hotels closed" - yes, but because there are no more tourists, hotels are empty. They close or reduce due to lack of guests. My friends showed me plenty of pictures, and we had video calls when they were sitting together in restaurants, no masks, in groups, with beer, or in and around the hotel pool, again no masks, and groups. 

I had video calls with my friends at many Birthday parties, with 15-20 Farangs, also older ones, and locals, sitting close together, no masks, no Cover-19, but BBQ and beer and wine. 

Yes, the government requested the population to use masks, and social distancing, but in a quite friendly way. You could do it or not, up to you.

So yes, of course, there were measures, but nowhere near as draconian as in Thailand, not comparable, not at all.

11 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

 

The chart reports CV deaths per 100,000 population, and the percentage of fatalities among confirmed cases. How is that misleading?

 

If it's misleading at all, it's on the undercounting side because of people getting sick and dying without being formally diagnosed due to lack of testing or testing not being done posthumously, etc.

 

 

No they don't report "deaths per 100,000 population", not the pictures you took. Obviously you misled yourself too.
 

If you go to your source, you see that what you think and make appear as the titles in the pictures "Observed case-fatality ratio" and "Deaths per 100,000 population" are not the titles, but they are 2 buttons.

Active in your picture is the button "Observed case-fatality ratio", which is explained in your source as "the number of deaths ... per 100 confirmed cases". So this is _not_ as you claim "deaths per 100,000 population".

If you go to your source and click on that button "Deaths per 100,000 population" a new graph appears, which shows a very different picture, not the scaremongering 16.2% mortality anymore. 
 

13 minutes ago, JCP108 said:

Yesterday in my large neighborhood during my evening walk, I saw about 50 people. Including me, there were five wearing masks and two of those five were only using them as chin-covers. People sitting in close groups. The two night markets near my home didn't have anyone manning the screening tables at the entrance last two days.

Better stay in your room, lock doors and windows, these careless people might be all infected, they are causing the second wave!
 

15 hours ago, gargamon said:

Intimidation, fear-mongering and propaganda just aren't working.

Actually, they are working great, only this time it's not the usual "populists" using them.

The fear mongering works, look at how scared to death so many are, locked in their rooms and grateful for getting ordered to lock themselves up. Scared to go outside, scared to come close to other humans, even to their friends and relatives.

The intimidation works, look how so many scientists get silenced, excluded from the decisions, deleted from youtube and FakeBook, self censoring, after they get attacked and discredited and accused of being conspiracy theorists if they dare to have a different opinion as China/WHO/Bill Gates.

The propaganda works, the people believe in the advertised "new normal", and accept all, waiting for the vaccine like hypnotized rabbits.

Humans are still humans, and "intimidation, fear-mongering and propaganda" are working as good as ever.

7 minutes ago, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

 

Perhaps this is a more realistic look and assessment:

 

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

 

It really varies widely by location. But you certainly didn't want to be in the top death rate countries listed above:

 

This is very misleading.

You post the "observed case-fatality ratio", which is "the number of deaths ... per 100 confirmed cases" (see your source).

So these numbers you show here depend first of all on the volume of testing, and the "success" of that testing, and do not reflect the real death rates.


 

11 minutes ago, Phil McCaverty said:

If not lockdown then what?

Forgive me, but I won't repeat all again here, as this was discussed already and lots of ideas came up:
 

13 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

So we agree there is evidence for a 1 meter distance, what about a compromise, if while keeping that distance the person near you starts coughing and sneezing you can just run like hell?

That's not very nice. Better offer her or him a handkerchief or some tissues.

On 5/30/2020 at 8:57 AM, Langsuan Man said:

I haven't gotten Covid 19

 

Thank you Thailand for keeping me safer than my own country would

How do you know that?
As you might have heard the big majority of infections is asymptotic, so how do you know?

 

18 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

I'am all for meaningful methods to stop the transmission rates of the disease.

While this sounds great and I’m sure you really mean it, I think it’s approaching the problem from the wrong side. I prefer to word it like this:

I’m for all meaningful methods to minimize the deaths and other damages this virus causes, directly and indirectly.

7 minutes ago, Don Mega said:

Wonder how long till the world goes 100% cashless, Nasty to think the checkout chick could pass me an infected note or coin.

So you better pay the nice girl for her happy end service cashless! Don’t be nasty and pass her your infected notes!

26 minutes ago, JensenZ said:

He didn't get the memo. Under State of Emergency he doesn't have rights. Even in normal times, his rights are few.

There are always the universal rights of the good citizen remaining:

You have the right to let the government think for you.

You have the right to obey.
So far, at least as far as I can see, no authoritarian regime has taken these away anywhere.

14 hours ago, frantick said:

Can you transmit the flu virus to others?

Do people die from the flu?

Can you transmit the common cold?

Do people die from the common cold?

 

Do you wear a mask for any of these scenarios? No? Shame on you, you could kill someone.

 

I wear the <deleted> mask in Thailand because it's the law. I actually think 'the maskers' are prolonging the duration of the virus, but no science to back me up.

Plenty of epidemiologists are saying exactly that, the measures to decrease infections, such as the debatable “'maskers' are prolonging the duration of the virus”. And that this prolonging makes it more difficult to protect the elderly. You can keep strict isolation only for so long. Thus flattening the curve not only prolongs the Virus, but prolongs the risk for our elderly.