Walker88

Perhaps from 2012 to Nov 2021 btc was a 'viable alternative' to Au. Since then, it has been a suicidal alternative. I'm not a fanboy of gold, but I do know it has a 5000 year history of being sought by humans, it has esthetic appeal in the form of jewelry, and it has numerous industrial and scientific uses (it even went to the moon as panels on the lander). Yes, someone else has to buy it for the holder to realize a gain, but the ONLY thing btc has it that it requires someone else to believe in it enough to pay more, as it cannot be worn and has zero industrial use. It requires a constant stream of new buyers (Greater Fools). Though I have no figures to back it up, I suspect of the 7.9 billion humans now alive, billions more of them will pay for gold than relieve a hodler of his btc. Articles like this reconfirm my belief that btc and crypto are cults. Using the phrase 'realizing the truth' in a title screams cult, like "The One Truth".. I cannot help but think btc is a fantasy wrapped in a dream sprinkled with hope and held inside a bottle of snake oil, but that's why there are markets. Ya payz ya money, ya takes your chances.

In point of fact, the 'demographic' that is the longest living humans are eunuchs. The number of eunuchs who reach 100 years is somewhere between 10 and 15 times the rate of non eunuchs. While I would love to live a long time, if the price of that extra time takes away one of my main reasons for wanting to hang around above ground, it isn't quite worth it (the added lifespan requires castration at a young age, a time when the equipment might be being put to good work). Regarding the removal of one's junk, or the desire to do it because one's body does not match the gender one feels inside.....two points: only available to adults seems pretty reasonable, particularly when I remember how addled my brain was during puberty, and second, the brain is being studied in much greater detail now than ever before, and increasingly it is being found that those who have desires that differ from the majority or norm (whatever term you want to use) have differences in the size of various areas of the brain. What these people feel or desire is not a choice; it is driven by their particular biology. In this day and age, we should count infinitely more on science, particularly biology, than the tenets of any and all Bronze Age belief systems, which collectively had zero clue about anything, but were damn sure they had the one and only truth and remain hellbent on imposing their superstitions on everyone else. To those who think any LGBT etc. is a mental illness, because their Bronze Age superstition says so, I am of the belief that religious belief is a personality weakness at best and more likely a mental illness.

I tip in appropriate situations, which I guess are 'appropriate' according to my personal definition. For a meal? Tip. In a bar? Tip my server always. If it's an agogo, buy the server a drink sometimes, too. If a woman on stage dances well---I don't mean sexy, but rather is fluid and coordinated (think Michael Jackson or JT Taylor of Kool & the Gang), and also working to make customers enjoy the night---I will discreetly slip her a folded 1000 baht note as I leave the club. Taxi? If he has taken the correct route and not purposely gone out of the way, and---because there are some rides I take repeatedly and know the cost---if his meter is correctly adjusted. Haircut? Always, perhaps until I go bald, which I hope is never. The woman who washes my hair also gets a tip. Hotel housekeeping? Every day, under the pillow. If a long stay, the woman learns your schedule and cleans while you eat breakfast, so if one's habit is to do a little work in the room after breakfast, one is not disturbed. Panda or Grab? Always. The guy faced death delivering through BKK traffic. Unlike the OP, I have never had anyone moan about the size of the tip. I tip not to get thanks (though get them), but because I suspect they are underpaid and may well be struggling to make ends meet. Sure, that isn't my fault, but it isn't such a bad thing to give a fellow human a bit of a boost and recognize their efforts. I'm not a sucker, and not that fool who will soon be parted from his money. I just believe it is appropriate to reward good service or a friendly face.

The odds that the world is going to face some sort of food shortage is like saying the world is going to experience some silly pandemic that shuts down economies and travel for two years. Silly fear mongering. In the event, however, that something bad happens, I did buy a large property in the EU with its own water source that sits about 100 meters higher than the arable land, so gravity works as the pump. It's also about 300 meters above the flatlands and rivers, so not a flood plain. About 18 inches of top soil and a nice stash of heirloom seeds suggest I might survive, provided I can get there. Wooded areas of the property have abundant wild boar and deer, should I go non-vegan. I didn't buy with prepping in mind, but rather because I loved the property and buildings on it. There's even a church if I got all religious, though that is unlikely. Did I mention the wine cellar? A man has to live, even in dark times.

Reminds me of the old Soviet-Era joke..... A battalion of soldiers is listening to a speech by a plump general... "Soon, comrades, all of you will have your own private jets" One soldier to another: "Dmitri, why are we needing private jet? What is use?" "Sascha, you idjiot ! What if you're in Moscva and you hear there is bread for sale in Minsk?"

It varies from person to person, depending on one's genes. Some people can consume massive amounts of carbs with no problem whatsoever, while others spike their glucose with one slice of pizza. The same is true of salt. Some people can use it almost by the teaspoon, while those prone to HBP have to severely limit it. As more research is done, lots of previous beliefs are being challenged. Healthcare turns out to be quite particular to the individual, with fewer and fewer absolutes as more research is done.

So what is your market basket that tells you inflation is 20%? Do you know how these rates are calculated? If the price of Spam rises 50%, it doesn't mean inflation is high, because Spam has minimal impact on the overall basket. Things like housing have much greater impact, and house prices are falling. Lumber and other inputs that go into house construction are falling. Everything gets collated, based on what an 'average consumer' purchases, and then a rate is calculated. People tend to assume inflation is higher than it is because they notice certain things they regularly buy, forgetting that isn't the entire basket of goods that reflects the average consumer.

There is precious little understanding of economics evidenced in this forum. Inflation is not instantaneous. It builds up over time, and then gets juiced by marginal issues. It's like a dam where one ignores the cracks and leaks until the thing bursts. After the crisis that began under Bush II, the Fed embarked on ZIRP. That set the ball rolling in the wild speculation that brought back the housing market and made credit easy. Under 45 the National Debt exploded by $7,000,000,000,000, some of it due to spendthrift policies and a large part due to the tax cut. That is what really got inflation in motion. In my analogy the dam cracked and the leaks began. Bad luck whoever is in power when it inevitably bursts, because they will get the blame.) Then came Covid and all of the aid handed out. Then as Covid came to an end all the pent up demand for everything from driving to travel to clothes juiced prices further. The fact much of the world relied on parts from China, at a time when China was locking down (disrupting supply chains) is another factor. The russian invasion of Ukraine exacerbated things further by driving up fossil fuel prices (risk premium), with help from wasteful crypto mining, at a time when people around the world were driving back to work. Toss in the fact that roughly 18% of the world's wheat crop is no longer coming to market, and all of that combined to bring about worldwide inflation. It will get worse in nations whose currency is tumbling vs the dollar, because this is one of the few times when oil and the dollar rise together. The US will be spared some of that because oil is priced in dollars, but Thailand, Japan, the EU---really everywhere except the US and Middle East---is going to feel price inflation due to higher fuel and transport costs. It is patently silly to blame Biden for all of this, though in the US, the repubs certainly are trying to do that. Blame the Fed for keeping its ZIRP for far too long, blame 45 for his profligacy, blame putin for invading a sovereign peaceful nation, blame Covid for postponing demand then unleashing it, and blame Covid/China again for their lockdowns and the resulting supply chain disruptions.

I never quite understand those arguments. Dissatisfied with govts? Do you mean fiat? Taxes? With ZERO barrier to entry, what do you call an infinite number of finite cryptos? Infinite, albeit without an economy behind it like fiat has. Fiat has a market-imposed discipline of sorts, as Weimar Germany discovered in 1921. There is no end to the number of crypto that can be issued, and new ones can improve on the flaws of existing coins. There are thousands of Satoshis out there with major incentive to build a better mousetrap and become a billionaire. As for taxes, rest assured any use of the 'wealth' gained from crypto speculation will be noticed and questions will be asked. Besides, already the FBI, CIA and NSA can follow movements in the crypto world, so hiding is a fantasy. As for banking...how will crypto solve banking issues? Anonymous borrowers doesn't make for good credit analysis, while good credit analysis requires public disclosure of the borrower. Also, I like the fact I can have up to $250,000 insured in each of my banks. There is no FDIC in crypto, so how one holds their stash is important. And what about redundancy? If the grid goes down, there are backups regarding my various pockets of wealth. What would an EMP or a major hack do to all of those crypto wallets? As the increased tensions in the world owing to russia's invasion of Ukraine have taught us, worst case scenarios re the grid are now very real possibilities. Next, how crypto banking is going to work hasn't been fully illuminated. How much credit will be available? For all of its faults, both fiat and banking since the Medicis have allowed incredible economic prosperity and lifted billions of people from poverty. Yes, the system relies on suspension of disbelief, but the ability of banks to create money and the growth in the supply of fiat has been the key to this prosperity. crypto isn't going to better what has already been done, so its utility is minimal.

I'm not against it, except for its waste of a finite resource like fossil fuel. I just don't see what value if offers society, and how that justifies the waste of energy. I also have a personal bugaboo about cults, and crypto is a cult. Like I've written in other posts, it isn't powered flight or the printing press or the transistor or the internet, but is touted by many as being almost more than all four.

Some things ARE a passing fad, while others are obviated by new technology. Just because folks write using similar arguments once used about the internet doesn't mean crypto is the new internet. Example of the first (passing fad) is the CB radio. You can look back and read articles where 'experts' predict 'CB radios will be standard in all cars in the next year or two and will change the way we live forever'. Well, Good Buddy, that's no ten-four; it's over and out. Example of the second (new tech) is the Walkman or Betamax, both from Sony, a company that once ruled home electronics, but now plays second fiddle to Samsung, LG or Apple. Things like Spotify and Netflix came along, though there were many other way stations before them, all promised to be 'the future', until they, too, were obviated. What is so revolutionary about crypto? What problem does it solve? What value does it add to society that justifies the incredible energy required for mining and transactions? And please don't equate it with Blockchain technology, as it is not the same thing. Electricity is more important than George Foreman's Grill, but George Foreman's Grill does use electricity. crypto uses Blockchain tech, but isn't the Blockchain. I am not arguing it is not a fun speculative vehicle where one can make a lot of genuine money, but it really isn't revolutionary in any actual way. Ease of money transfer? Big deal. I transfer money and just pay the mid rate on FX, and if I send a sizable sum, the spread is only a few pips and my transaction is done quickly. If I can't plan ahead and know I need funds in the next few hours, then I'm a bozo, so the claimed speed of a transaction via crypto is irrelevant. How about buying something? If it's a pack of gum, the seller can't suffer much (though even that is as energy intensive as 200+ Mastercard transactions), but if the product is expensive, the seller assumes lots of exchange rate risk in something as volatile as crypto. How about lending? Okay, what will you give up, anonymity or credit analysis? Store of wealth? Depends on where and how you store it, and how easy it is to turn it into a usable means of exchange. Taking an objective view to all of the supposed benefits leaves little else besides 'speculation'. That, however, comes at great cost, as mining and transactions are wildly energy wasteful. So bottom line, society is better off how because of crypto?

As for when I first heard of bitcoin...I don't remember the exact date, but I believe it was back around 2012. I used to read a financial website where one fellow championed it (it was about $100 at the time IIRC) and he constantly argued with the Au and Ag bulls. (I was not a believer in precious metals then, as I felt their day had come and gone, and if the Mad Max world of their aficionados came to pass, a 5000 oz bar of Ag would be worth about $0). The guy who championed btc was not well-to-do, but had bought enough btc so that if he held, he'd be okay now. I did not join in and buy, as it was not going to materially affect my lifestyle even if I bought and held to the peak. Yes, we're just anonymous nobodies here online, but I made rather substantial money as a hedge fund manager, retired at a tender age, and have all I need for the duration of my time above ground. There comes a point for some people---me being one---where enough is enough. I have former colleagues who stuck around the industry and remain there, where wealth is now a game and competition among those still in the field, but any wealth now gained offers them nothing new, as they already have everything money can buy. I did not want to be like that as I age, and had the foresight to see what that future would be. It's a lot of headaches monitoring markets 24/7, having fiduciary responsibility, dealing with endless teams of regulators, tax issues, lobbying for quite unfair things like 'carried interest', etc. One also gets obsessed with 'winning', even when gains or losses are nothing compared to one's total pot of wealth. That seemed a bad way to pass existence. It takes a toll not commensurate with any possible gain. It detracts from life's enjoyment. Okay, I am not a billionaire like a few of my former colleagues, but with markets now an intellectual curiosity that doesn't get in the way of enjoying time on Earth, I feel my time since I left has been infinitely more interesting. I enjoy writing and I enjoy commenting on issues that are at the forefront of society, or which pique my curiosity. Also, I can be dispassionate and objective, as I have no skin in the game and no ego tied up with something as banal as a trading entity. For those still seeking the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, have at it. (Just know rainbows are always the same distance away from the observer, so one can never reach 'the end')

Totally on topic. Musk is being sued, claiming he was part of a Ponzi re dogecoin. Granted it's a silly suit. He then---not so coincidentally---issues a Tweet saying he is still buying dogecoin. Guaranteed his lawyer will use that to try to get the suit dismissed, and I'd be willing to bet his lawyer advised him to make the Tweet. Also not so coincidentally, that Tweet coincides exactly with the surge in dogecon, bitcoin and ethereum. I don't hate conjured entities. Perhaps you haven't the self-reflection to notice, but you sound like a member of a religion outraged that some blasphemer drew a cartoon of your prophet. You are not alone in expressing that sort of thing, which is why I say a Cult has developed around these things (Mods, my comment is fair) If people want to trade them with each other in a giant game of Old Maid or Musical Chairs, so be it. I do not see the value of any of them, other than as speculative vehicles. Yes, one can make some money trading them, just as one could have made money in the bizzarro world of NFTs like the Bored Monkey Yacht Club. I call crypto a solution in search of a problem. Some folks argue about ease of money transfer. That is hardly a reason for the things to be worth "trillions". They are too volatile to be of value as a currency, as Elon Musk found out when his finance types undoubtedly told him the $120K equivalent they received in btc for a Tesla on Friday might be worth only $60K by the time they can hedge it. As something to loan, the same issue arises---volatility---plus either anonymity goes out the window, or no credit analysis of a borrower is done. So what does that leave for the things....other than speculation or feeling the comfort of belonging to a cult? Toss in the massive waste of energy 'mining' the things or simply doing a transaction, and crypto are a net negative for the good of society, solving nothing but costing a lot in terms of energy waste. Other folks try to equate blockchain tech with crypto, which is like saying porn is the internet, and thus revolutionary. No, porn is something that uses the internet, just as crypto is something that uses blockchain technology. Folks can knock themselves silly trading these things and convincing themselves 'they're the new internet'. I think statements about how they are as revolutionary as the internet or other infinitely more useful and beneficial to society technologies is hyperbole of the highest order. As for where I think btc is going...I think it will be obviated by someone (who wants to be a billionaire) conjuring a crypto that corrects for btc's flaws, but because btc is already somewhat ubiquitous, I think it doesn't go to zero. I think it will end somewhere in the $100-$1000 range where it will be the vehicle of choice for terrorists, drug dealers, organized crime and child pornography types.

So a legal defense turns around the crypto market..... Elon Musk, being sued for $258 billion by dogecoin holders who claim Musk was involved in a dogecoin Ponzi Scheme, issues a statement as part of his defense that he is continuing to buy dogecoin, as in, "If it's a Ponzi, why am I still buying?" If Musk so much as buys a single dogecoin for 6 cents, his lawyer will be able to get the suit dismissed. Wither Bernie Madoff? Musk could have taught him a thing or two. If such a legal defense statement turns around a weekend rout, crypto is even sillier than its critics suggest.

Hardly a reason to be 'valued' at trillions of dollars.

That is a bit of a fallacy. Everybody thinks 'the other guy' knows more. In certain circumstances, maybe individual equities, that may be true, but generally markets are too big and there are far too many players with opposing interests for anyone to have the upper hand. I remember lots of folks used to think Goldman had lots of info. It was never true. Goldman guys thought Morgan knew, or one of the big funds like Bridgewater or Tudor or Quantum. The only place where the majors have a huge advantage is when they co-locate servers in the same facility as the exchanges, then hire guys who write better code. Billionths of a second pay off. Both JPM and GS have months when their system trade platform never has a losing day.

Up to you. I traded my way and seemed to do okay, though I could have just been incredibly lucky. I got paid either way, skill or luck.

When I was a hedge fund manager, this is how I had to unwind a large position. One doesn't think it will work, but it does. It relies on an inherent optimism that people WANT the storm to pass. One paints the picture they want to see, then hits them with both barrels. To be a good trader one needs to be a cynic.

Whoever is dumping hired a professional trader. They hammered the bid side, then went fallow for a while. let the market think the storm has passed. If or when the bid side fills in again, fire the second fusillade. If the bid side doesn't fill in, go in and BUY to paint the tape. (After a hammering, the offer side tends to be thin, so one can ramp the price quite easily and cheaply.) That tends to attract believers who think there's a bargain to be had. When the bid is thick...BOOM ! Hammer it yet again. Rinse and repeat until the majority of the position is unloaded. The price action has been impressive. Charts are meaningless in this sort of panic selling. Watch the tape, because that is where the information lies, not some chart point. What should be concerning is that this began in earnest on a weekend. That suggests a truly desperate seller, which may well turn out to be a bank holding crypto as collateral for a loan gone bad.

Cute. Big Picture, not cherry pick or toss out the old mine adage. bitcoin never had a business plan. It always relied on the Greater Fool.

There are differences....an equity begins as a going concern with a business behind it. bitcoin begins in search of a Greater Fool, like investors in Ishtar or The Adventures of Pippy Longstocking: The Prequel.. A public company finds a market niche and tries to exploit it. bitcoin is a solution in search of a problem. If a company goes belly up, there is an 'order of battle' in a liquidation. IRS first, Senior Debt Holders, Subordinated Debt Holders, and then equity holders. If bitcoin goes to zero, 'thank you for playing; as a consolation prize you have a choice of a signed photo of Michael Saylor or Cathi Woods'

Also, unlike fiat held in a bank, there is no FDIC to guarantee each deposit up to $250,000. It seems one by one all of the supposed benefits of crypto are falling by the wayside. Funny that. No FDIC, no real credit analysis of borrowers, a wildly volatile 'asset' that can, in a moment, hammer or help a borrower/hammer or help a lender, little to no anonymity, disincentives to use as 'acceptable currency' as Tesla found out, wildly expensive transaction costs, inexperienced and weakly capitalized entities that have sprung up to support this industry. OK Millennials. As Lloyd Bentsen might have said, "I knew the Medicis. You, Millennials, are no Medicis"

In uncharted waters, 'charts' are meaningless, full of false hopes and empty promises. Not sure why some people hold on to such views. In Market Armageddons, prices blast through any and all support points. What is happening isn't a correction; the Four Horsemen are mounted and on the gallop.

Also remember that in the event of bankruptcy, ALL assets of an exchange/dealer/bank/etc. are frozen, so anyone who has things held by any of the firms that sprang up around crypto will not have access until the bankruptcy runs through the court system, which generally takes years.

If the major seller is using a good broker, he will let it breathe, even buy it up a little and let the market think the storm has passed. Then...BOOM ! When the bid side fills in, hammer it again. This has already happened after the late afternoon lull yesterday (Thai time). Just when folks thought it was safe to go back in the water, the seller struck again. (This assumes the seller isn't yet done; we'll see)