That's an easy one, the writer intentionally disclosed classified information. That's about a 100% shot at being indicted.
Biden's staff inadvertently mixed in a handful of classified documents in with other official papers. When discovered, the classified documents were immediately returned. There's about a 100% chance of *not* being indicted in that circumstances.
At this point, the issue on the table is your grip on reality. This is a very well understood area of criminal investigation, with plenty of precedent. You can recognize reality, or, do what a lot of crazy people do, which is ignore data that doesn't fit into your worldview. Let's see how you react.