MrMojoRisin

2 minutes ago, jesimps said:

They say that before every coup. I just can't see the military taking this laying down. Good result for Pheu Thai though, gives them a say without having to dodge the incoming hatred of the yellows. Can we anticipate Mr Suthep out with his whistle again? He's been unusually quiet since the military took power.

My guess is the kids would love the opportunity to hit the streets and finish off the dinosaurs once and for all. Conservatives are going to need to tread very carefully for some time yet.

28 minutes ago, StayinThailand2much said:

What if Pheu Thai says 'no'? And no, having the most votes doesn't take a party automatically into government, esp. if that party has only about 30% of the votes. But yes, there are numerous examples around the world where the strongest party wasn't part of a government, but instead was sidelined by a coalition of other parties.

First opportunity to form a government

33 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

I agree if they were to pull all the tricks in order to block MF+PT to form a proper government then it would probably get ugly. But it doesn't have to be black and white. The senate holds a lot of power. They could extract concessions from the house.

 

For example the topic of mandatory conscription. MF said they want to abolish it. For that, they have to pass a law through the house. But the senate which is controlled by the military has to approve it. So that wont happen. But then what?

 

It's an interesting situation because afaik the house can't push changes to the constituion which enshrines the power of the senate. And because the senate is not elected by the voters, the voters can never push for a change to the current system unless they find a way to get senators on their side.

The military appoint the Senate

The government appoint the military leadership.

Hmm?

11 minutes ago, bannork said:

Jim, your man in the sand could still come home if PT team up with Bhumjai Thai and all the other conservative losers. 

Of course this would infuriate the entire middle and working class Thais who want reform in Thailand.

This is a test for PT. Do they genuinely want to change Thailand or will they stick to the fading brand of Thaksin?

I can't see your hero coming back by July, by the way. 

PT are the only party that want him back and they fell far short of the landslide they wanted.

Thaksin is 'out here on the perimeter (where ) there are no stars.'

 

Far from being my hero, Thaksin was always a necessary stepping stone from military run Thailand to a Thailand where a party such as Move Forward can win an election. No Thaksin means there would never be a Move Forward. He will make it home and he will fade away from Thai politics. All in all, the juice was worth the squeeze.

3 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

The most important part of this equation was 42 seats for Prawit and 37 for Cha Cha. It was a huge repudiation for the status quo. The people said no, I don't think so, you guys are dinosaurs, we don't want you, we don't like you you need to disappear off the face of the earth. 

 

Let us hope these greedy, toxic, moronic, backwards, incapable nitwits get the message, and back down. 

 

Now, they need to figure out a way to get rid of the corrupt, army appointed senators. ASAP. By whatever means necessary. The youth have prevailed. It is a glorious day in Thailand!

Strange numbers for Prayuth, only 814,000 constituency votes yet a relatively massive 4,752,000 party list votes. It will be interesting to see an analysis once the count is complete.

4 minutes ago, candide said:

In Thailand, an elected government has no power on the Judiciary and semi-Judiciary (agencies, such as the NACC). 

The government can investigate and forward cases to the courts. Once information of possible crimes is in the public domain....

5 minutes ago, eisfeld said:

I agree that a minority government probably would just result in a deadlock and re-election. Extrapolating from the unofficial partial counts so far MF+PT will probably get 320-330 seats. So they'll need to sway something in the order of 50 senators and even then it'll be too close for comfort. I'm not familiar with Thai politics enough to opinionate if that is realistic or not. If they were to bring in Bhumjaithai they'd be pretty much guaranteed to have a majority government. I guess it'll depend on what Bhumjaithai will be asking for in return.

Very hard to see Senators breaking ranks, but who knows, orders may come in from above. The Senators lose their power to participate in the selection of the Prime Minister in 2024 so pushing ahead with a minority government and thus another election achieves nothing but delaying the inevitable (and risking an uprising from the masses).

1 hour ago, eisfeld said:

Note that even with the close to 300 out of 500 seats in the house at 85.6% count for Move Forward + Pheu Thai, it might not be enough to have a majority government if the 250 seats of the senate don't align themselves. A whopping 376 out of 500 house seats are needed in order to have a guaranteed majority. Which means 75% of votes.

 

From what it looks like right now either Move Forward + Pheu Thai have to get Bhumjaithai into a coalition or hope that they can sway enough senators.

A minority government is unworkable.

The 300+ lower house seats controlled by MF and PT means they dictate the outcome of every single vote in the lower house which could only lead to another election being called. One cannot imagine that the vote for Prayuth would increase should this be the case. It is a dead end road for the junta, their only viable course of action is to simply accept defeat and step aside.

10 hours ago, steven100 said:

Voting has commenced ....      Khun Prayut Chan O Cha gestures the crowd of supporters.

 

He's holding up a finger for each vote he expects to receive.

On 5/12/2023 at 12:59 PM, The Fugitive said:

Here is the Royal Thai Army delivering rice to my mother-in-law prior to flooding.

Is this really the role of the military?

Divert the resources away from the Generals and into the correct agencies and I'm sure the money will be much much more efficiently spent.

7 minutes ago, zzaa09 said:

Indeed. 

As of past 7PM this evening, MF has a significant lead [candidate seats] throughout BKK Metro as well as an overwhelming lead throughout upcountry.....PT and PP are making a show of it with Pheu thai gaining much more constituency seats....

 

We'll see how this holds by the next couple of days. 

MF and PT have a lower house majority.