Cameroni

Britain's real problem are its underlying economic issues. For years the decline of Britain has been predicted, and it looks like it has now come to pass. The proliferation of chicken shops and Turkish barbers, the crime, the poverty, if you go to some parts of the UK now, you'd think you've entered a dystopian horror film. Britain's economic decline is more apparent than ever.

Indian professor predicts China cannot win the trade war: Trump has forced China into a tariff war that it can neither afford nor win. The timing could not have been worse for Beijing, given its economic fragility. China’s economy is unravelling — not through a sudden crash, but by slow, systemic suffocation. Beneath the façade of 5% growth lies mounting debt and entrenched deflation. The deeper danger isn't immediate collapse but a prolonged zombie-like stagnation that spreads risks across the global economy. In late 2024, China announced that its economy grew by 5% for the year. At first glance, this seemed like good news. The world’s second-largest economy appeared stable and a working engine in uncertain times. But behind the headlines, the reality is very different. Foreign investors are pulling out. Youth unemployment is rising fast. Big real estate companies are collapsing. And prices, both at factories and in shops, are steadily falling. What is further interesting to note is that in 2024, China’s nominal GDP grew just 4.2%, as against the real GDP growth of 5%. Typically, nominal GDP grows faster than real GDP because it includes inflation. Here, a lower nominal GDP suggests that prices are falling across the board, signalling what is known as deflation — something that economists fear much more than inflation, for it represents an utterly stagnating economy. Further to this, independent groups like the Rhodium Group estimate that China’s real growth has likely been between 2.4% and 2.8%, far lower than the official number. And that is with significant government support behind the scenes. Beijing, meanwhile, has few viable counters. It imports too little from the U.S. to retaliate meaningfully. Currency devaluation risks capital flight. Threatening export bans — such as of rare earths and pharma inputs — will further accelerate global diversification. While they are still projecting strength, it masks a shrinking toolbox. This is a trade war China cannot afford and cannot win. The timing could not have been worse. https://swarajyamag.com/economy/chinese-economy-a-fragile-giant-behind-the-roaring-dragon

First of all China's GDP figures are a total lie. It's an open secret that they're about as reliable as Chinese guarantees of civil liberties. "China's total-country-debt-to-GDP ratio is extraordinarily high. After taking into account so-called "hidden debt" and adjusting for inflated GDP claims—the country did not grow anywhere near the reported 5.0 percent pace last year—the ratio could be, according to my estimate, 375 percent. Higher figures are also plausible." https://www.newsweek.com/chinas-economy-deep-trouble-opinion-2037177 Secondly, if you think 400 billion USD is chump change to China, you're very mistaken. The Chinese will come crawling to the negotiation table. It's not just the US, after all, the EU, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, many other countries have imposed tariffs on China and reduced its export options.

"Yes, every economy faces difficulties, especially developing ones. But China's are intractable. Because Xi Jinping is determined to take the country in an unsustainable direction, China is entering, as some call it, a "doom loop." "China's economy is confronting a crisis unlike any it has experienced since it opened its economy to the world more than four decades ago," the New York Times reported in September. In 2008, China's President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao decided they would not allow the economy to suffer, so they embarked on perhaps the biggest stimulus program in history. The result was historic overbuilding, and the country now has too much of almost everything. For instance, He Keng, a former senior statistics official, in 2023 publicly revealed that China had enough vacant apartments to house the entire population of 1.4 billion people. He noted that some believed that empty homes could hold three billion. To deal with the severe imbalance, some Chinese localities are demolishing newly completed but vacant apartment buildings. Yet this is only a temporary fix. After all, destroyed buildings cannot produce revenue to pay for their construction and demolition. Without paying for the bad investments—largely real estate—the economy can't grow," says Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research, author of Wild Ride: A Short History of the Opening and Closing of the Chinese Economy. "And it definitely can't pay for the bad investments. At least within the next decade." The crisis will almost certainly last a long time. "China has grown almost entirely through capital investment," notes Stevenson-Yang. "Because there isn't enough to invest in, a lot of good money chases bad, and they have reached a limit. The Chinese economy is having a heart seizure." The seizure looks fatal. China's total-country-debt-to-GDP ratio is extraordinarily high. After taking into account so-called "hidden debt" and adjusting for inflated GDP claims—the country did not grow anywhere near the reported 5.0 percent pace last year—the ratio could be, according to my estimate, 375 percent. Higher figures are also plausible. "China's economy is in a slow grind downwards," Andrew Collier of Hong Kong-based Orient Capital Research and Harvard's Kennedy School told me in the middle of last year. As a result, money has been flooding out of the country. According to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, net foreign direct investment fell by $168 billion last year, the biggest drop since 1990. Also, illicit outflows are draining large amounts of cash. "Based on trade flows, capital flight appears to have reached operatic levels," Stevenson-Yang says.. Pessimism is pervasive in China, not so much because the country is having a downturn but because people believe Xi Jinping is taking it in the wrong direction. His plan is to export his way out of economic difficulties, but as Nobel laureate Paul Krugman points out, foreign markets are not big enough for Xi's plan to succeed. "We can't absorb," he says. "The world will not accept everything that China wants to export." New American tariffs will give cover to other leaders to also block Chinese goods. Even before Trump took the oath of office, the European Union imposed tariffs on China's electric vehicles and Global South countries such as Indonesia, Brazil, and Turkey imposed tariff and other barriers. Expect more countries to follow.." https://www.newsweek.com/chinas-economy-deep-trouble-opinion-2037177 How's this for facts, Paul and Eric?

Thankfully, the leaders of the Western countries have a brain in their heads, unlike you, which is why they have been extra careful not to put troops on the ground in Ukraine. Because they are, rightly, afraid of nuclear war with Russia, which could wipe out your home country and the entire plant in the blink of any eye. You need to study history properly. Western fools have predicted the death of Russia as a great power for 35 years now. However, what history taught is that it is not the case, that a country that can destroy your home country in the blink of an eye, and could destroy the entire planet in the blink of an eye will always be a strong actor on the world stage that has to be reckoned with, as the Ukraine found out. And indeed as the West, hiding behind Ukraine, has now found out.

Paul Henry should stop talking nonsense and check the facts, as Cameroni has already done so and can tell he is talking complete bs. The US market is worth 400 billion USD to China. THAT is the key fact. Another fact: China is a nation dependent on exports. Why? Because the huge Chinese market is very low value. US purchassing power is 89000 USD, China's purchasing power per head is only 15000 USD. The US holds bigger and better cards in this trade war. The US market is far more valuable. The Chinese depend far more on the US market. And btw, unemployment is already a problem in China. So is lack of domestic demand. Real Estate crisis. Overdependence on foreign investment. Trump has more bullets, and he knows it. The Chinese will be DESPERATE to negotiate. They will come crawling to the table.

China exports 400 billion USD worth to the US. The US has just taken that away. The US has the capacity to shave several points off of China's GDP. So what you are saying is false. The US DOES have the ability to impact China's economic growth figures substantially. How could it be otherwise when the US is China's biggest, most profitable trading market worth 400 billion USD?

So not the entire wold then. Okay.

What does Taylor Swift think about all this though? She will decide the next election. Oprah said so.

Yes, of course the mining rights are not given away for free. If you take the Detour Lake mine for instance the Canadian government made about 4.9 million dollars in fees, taxes etc from that mine. The value of the Detour Lake Gold mine however is estimated to be in the billions. Whoever negotiated on behalf of the Canadian government should be fired surely?

How do you not die of embarassment posting claptrap like this, is what I'd like to know. Because there was a cyberattack on Estonia, for which there is not a shred of evidence mind you that it was the Russian government, Putin intends to invade Estonia? So I guess China intends to invade the US then? Since there were Chinese cyberattacks on the USA? I mean seriously, how do you get out of bed in the morning? Trade restrictions? So the US is basically going to invade the entire world then? I mean I literally cannot believe you would post such flimsy transparent non-evidence. Again the question is does Russia intend to invade the Baltics? The resounding clear answer is "NO". There is absolutely zero chance. Airspace violations? So Russia is also planning to invade England and Scotland then? I mean do you actually believe the utter drivel that you write? This is what I'd like to know.

What you don't seem to understand is that the mineral rights that adhere to the land are sold off to private gold mining companies. It is they who then own the rights. They acquire them to operate the gold mines. The Canadian government doesn't do that.

"Wilson pushed for sedition and espionage laws, adopted in 1917 and 1918, that made illegal certain speech about the war, including speech that might incite disloyalty within the military or be supportive of the enemy. These laws, which later were viewed as an instance of government overstepping the bounds of First Amendment freedoms, led to the conviction of several anti-war activists at the time. Wilson's attorney general, A. Mitchell Palmer, also led raids on communist and socialist groups, creating mass arrests and undermining First Amendment rights." https://firstamendment.mtsu.edu/presidents-and-the-first-amendment/

There is criminal libel on the books in the US, i hate to break it to you. Obviously the executive branch has a lot to do with it, since it implemented the laws that constitute the libel laws in the US. Or you think those laws magically appeared out of thin air? Not if they're at university. In the 1980s and 1990s, more than 350 public universities adopted "speech codes" regulating discriminatory speech by faculty and students. Indeed they have, however, the executive can pass laws that limit free speech. Just like Illinois when they put group libel laws in place to protect blacks. Lol, so did the "speech codes" adopted by 350 public universities regulating discriminatory speech. Yet, oddly, they are still in place. So basically leftists can do it, just no anyone else, right?

She would. Those girls are bored as hell.

The whole ERM debacle is certainly a contender from Britain as well.

So what, that doesn't happen at university, does it? Religious and political activism by them should be banned. That's all. What are you on about? Self taught priests? Religious schools can instruct priests. Just not at university. A normal university is one dedicated to teaching and research. An abnormal one is Antioch, for instance where students are taught to obtain written contracts to kiss a girl, touch her breast and required to get "affirmed consent". That's not normal behaviour that is being taught at these universities. So pretty much all of them now. I am pro debate and pro-democracy, but you didn't learn democracy at university. Nor should you. It's not a political institution, but an academic one. There is no reason to debate feminism or socialism at campus. You Pattaya girlie bar addicts obviously don't follow the news; https://www.theguardian.com/news/2023/may/05/how-the-fall-of-edward-colstons-statue-revolutionised-the-way-british-history-is-told Lol, you're completely clueless, Heidegger taught at university under the Nazis. He was one of the pre-eminent lecturers at that time. You're seriously clueless, Germany prohibited Nazi parties, how could one possibly gain power? Maybe ease up on the gin and tonics. No they didn't you ignorant clown, they voted for the PDS and The Linke, pseudo communist parties. Plenty of pro-communists in Russia.

What are you on about, those German politicians were handpicked by the Americans, British, French and Russians. Of course they picked non-Nazis. There was always a small minority of opposition politicians in Germany, mostly underground. However, the universities did influence how the students turned out. Heidegger himself was routed for being antisemitic. So were many German politicians post 1945. The masses ARE weak willed. Just look at how the British now celebrate anti-white, anti-coloniali causes. Where did that come from? Universities and political activists. We're talking about Harvard and normal universities. Chapels and such can stay open, only overt religious activism and political activism would be banned. This is very reasonable. People can still support their country, presidents can still throw balls, none of that is political activism obviously , don't be obtuse. Stop talking nonsense, I don't want trade unions banned. Nor do I want to ban books. Only political activism. And 18 year olds are gullible af, they are basically in danger of being perverted by these political activists.

Trump can pass executive orders, they are laws. if he wants he can get a law passed that bans activism on campuses. That would be a very sensible thing to do to root out the leftwing cancer on campuses.

I know a super hot 23 year old there. I would do her.

Political activists on campus do not teach kids "to think for themselves". Don't talk nonsense. They want to ram their ideology down the gullible throats of the young. That's what they want. These political activists are using institutions of learning for something completely different. Political persuasion. That should be banned. Mercilessly.

Clearly you mean Königsberg. Which was annexed in 1945. Obviously we are talking of 2025. Not 1945. Putin has showed no signs whatsoever of being interested in the Baltics.

All activism. Ban it. Left or right. Education is no place for political ideological hate of either side. Religious crusading too. Sports is fine. Since when are sports teams political activism? Don't talk nonsense.

Powell has turned hawkish, so it is pretty clear he will not reduce interest rates in June. This should strengthen the dollar. Particularly if China indicates they're open to negotiate a deal. Tariffs are played out now. There has to be a dip, but Gold will keep going to 3500 and probably beyond, so buying the dip is the way to go.

Fed will not reduce interest rates in June. This will strengthen the dollar. So there may be dip in gold. A perfect opportunity to buy, to jump onto the 3500 train.