Cameroni

Yes, that's what Chinese are known for the world over. Sticklers for rules they are. Put the Swiss to shame.

It is your logic that is very strange. "Because their population is less prone to the effects of tariffs they are considered weaker?" What??? No dude, because the Chinese are MORE prone to the effects of tariffs, because they export more, that is why they are weaker. It's not rocket science.

That's not the most relevant issue. The most relevant issue is that China is about to lose 400 billion USD worth of market share. Whereas America is not losing very much at all from Chinese tariffs. As Germany showed when it replaced 94 per cent of Russian oil imports with alternative suppliers from Canada to Norway, it is always possible to find alternative suppliers. Including for rare earths, btw, which can be recycled. Clearly it is China that will suffer the most, 400 billion USD is not chump change to an economy that is already in trouble.

Of course China is in a weaker position because China hardly imports any US products, so its retaliation is much less significant than America's tariffs. In short, the US can hurt the Chinese a lot more than China can hurt Americans. The Chinese know this. That's why they are in a much weaker position to negotiate and reticent to come to the table. They know they will be savaged in negotiations. Because they don't have the cards.

Trump is already offering negotiations because he knows he will negotiate from a position of strength. It is the Chinese who are reticent to come to the table, because they know they can only lose, because they are in a much weaker position.

The paper tiger is flapping with panic already? Maybe they heard how Vietnam was offering the US to stop Chinese passthrough exports? Either way, clearly the Chinese are very afraid of what's coming. How long before China folds, gets on its knees and begs for negotiations?

Well, that's 30 minutes I'll never get back.

Exactly, you just Fedex it. What's the big deal? Big fuss about a nothing burger.

Since the only people ordering shipments over $800 are Unbox Therapy and Marques Brownlee, how is this even news? It will affect precisely no one. When was the last time you ordered items over $800?

Indeed foreign investment is a benefit, however, if you ONLY or disproportionately depend on foreign investment, if you have no manufacturing of your own, but depend on Toyota, BMW, KIA etc opening factories in your country to provide jobs, then you are in trouble. Foreign investment in the UK has fallen dramatically. Of course the UK economy has many problems, but one of its key issues is dependence on foreign money. "38% of all turnover of non-financial businesses in Britain went through foreign owned companies." "I don’t think even Thatcher would have imagined that a quarter of British GDP would today be made up of sales of US multinationals like Amazon, Coca-Cola, Goldman Sachs and Uber. What that means is that key decisions are being made elsewhere, intellectual property is often held overseas, profits are extracted and taxes not paid here." https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/06/britain-us-uk-assets-economic-disaster-labour

The UK has one major problem. It depends on foreign investment. It wants Chinese money. To buy its IOUs, to invest. For decades the British have depended on Russian, Japanese, Chinese money, and now the situation has become critical. Some predict that in 6 months Britain may be unable to pay its debts. Unless they find a white knight...like China. Reeves is hoping someone will bail her out for her failed policies. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/25/britain-is-on-the-brink-of-a-full-blown-fiscal-crisis/

That was my experience as well. I would also add that as good as Thai cuisine is, Indonesian and Balinese cuisine is a cut above Thai cooking. Bali also has a spiritual vibe most of Thailand has lost already. Better coffee too. It was sad to see Indonesia abandon its country to the Chinese at Lake Toba and to assorted Australians and Russians in Bali now, their presence degrades Bali significantly. However, if I had to leave Thailand Bali would be top of the list.

The idea that governments and financial regulators cannot influence markets is nonsense. Of course they can, and have done so countless times in the past. If you want to talk about the past, you will recall that Roosevelt's New Deal pulled the world out of depression. Policies can make a difference.

Exactly right. It is Burmese gangs that target the festivals. Absolutely disgraceful people, you need to be aware and look around. You will see these groups of concentrated Burmese following farang around. I really hope I catch one in the act one day.

Shades of the 1930s, public confidence in democratic parties plummeting, strong man leaders emerging, economic warfare looming. Didn't Japan go to war because the US imposed an oil embargo crippling the Japanese economy? Germany rearming, Britain and France too. A nascent economic and military power in Asia, China this time. Plu ca change c'est la meme chose.

We all remember when the British equivalent of the Fed thought they could outplay the markets during the ERM crisis, when Trump's current economic advisor Scott Bessent was part of Soros' team that put together a bet that broke the Bank of England. Possibly that was the beginning of the end for Britain, now terrified foreign debtors will not help finance their lifestyle anymore. The American situation is different, because the American economy is vastly greater than Britain's, and the American market will always be a magnetic attraction for export nations. However, I wonder if the Fed could also make a major blunder like the British did. Hopefully not. But QE has contributed to inflation and it is highly doubtful the Fed officials foresaw this. To have Powell in charge now, who famously advised inflation was a temporary phenomenon and nothing to worry about, does not fill you with confidence..

You do not understand what is happening, Trump WANTS the dollar to fall. Stock markets fluctuate it's not a big issue. The fact that Trump is right that manufacutring has to be revitalised is not affected by market fluctuations.

Greenspan was a disaster on many levels. Clinton did make that mistake of passing a law that forced banks to give loans to people who could not afford to pay them back. An obvious error borne from ideology, DEI led to the subprime mortgage crisis. The bankers were not locked up because at the time the loans were repackaged they were not bad loans. It was the borrowers who defaulted who made them bad loans. Indeed manufacturing has to be revitalised in the US. Trump is right.

The Fed's Quantitative Easing was responsible for inflation. That is the case. Bankers, economists and experts disagree with your view that QE does not lead to inflation: "My research compares the reported inflationary effects of QE and conventional monetary policy across 82 previous studies for the euro area, UK and US. This comparison shows that the reported inflationary effects of QE are two to four times higher than those of conventional monetary policy in the UK and US, but not in the euro area (see charts below). The result that QE generates more inflation than conventional monetary policy is therefore a general finding of academic research." As this research shows that QE generates more inflation than conventional monetary policy, any explanation of the recent inflation surge should therefore consider QE as a possible factor. https://www.thebanker.com/content/dd5946ac-33f5-518f-af14-a148e24127c7 Clearly, the Fed's QE is the underlying cause of inflation, which was exarcebated by Covid and Ukraine. Even if a cursory examination of inflation figures appears to show that inflation was not rampant prior to Covid, academic research clearly shows that QE does lead to higher inflation.

The fact that you claim the Chinese destruction of apartments is "propaganda" clearly shows you are in denial and in the dark. If you had read his link the fact check said it was "true", and of course, it is true that China has stupidly overproduced housing which stands empty. The Ghost cities are real. Chinese house prices are falling. This is all real, even if you want to close your eyes to it, it is still there. It was a massive mistake by the Chinese to overproduce housing to this degree, but they can't help themselves, overproduction seems to be in their DNA. A very stupid thing to do, house prices are falling in China. Equally your claim that ASEAN countries are not terrified of a tsunami of Chinese products coming their way, now that the US is closed for them, I am afraid it's not "in my head", I saw an interview with an Indonesian trade minister. A Thai official said similar things. This Chinese tendency to overproduce has already resulted in China dumping products cheaply in these countries. In fact China has destroyed the Indonesian garment industry with its cut price avalanche of cheap fabrics. So tariffs on China may well be on the card in the ASEAN region fairly soon. China has not just lost 400 billion USD of American market, the EU has slapped tariffs on China. So have Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia and many others. The reason being China's dumping of underpriced prodcuts in those markets. The overproduction is becoming a problem for China that is larger than the US. I take your point about prices being lower in China in some regions that is of course so, though I was in Shanghai and it wasn't exactly cheap. But yes, money will go further in many other Chinese regions, I am sure you're right on that. But you cannot deny there is a clear structural inequality in the Chinese population, there are giant swathes of dirt poor peasant populations in China who live in a poverty we cannot imagine in the West. The peasants JD Vance spoke off, the migrant labourers, they are real. Fair point, the true ramifications of Chinese women refusing to have children will take some time to manifest, but even now the lower domestic demand indicates that already the growth of the aging population is having some effect.This is not a unique problem in the world of course, but let's not pretend it doesn't afflict China as well. America will win this trade war. Yes, China has done very well in trade so far, but its overproduction has destroyed many domestic markets, particularly in Asia. Nobody wants to cut trade with China completely, however, many countries, not just the US, but many others, including the EU, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, want to limit trade with China, due to dumping practices by the Chinese. The Americans don't just reign supreme in chips, in pharmaceuticals too, six of the top ten companies are American, including the very largest ones. In consumer electronics and software too the US dominate. Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft are the highest-valued companies in the world at the end of 2024. Dominance of US corporations continues: 62 of the 100 most expensive companies in the world are based in the USA. "The latest analysis of market capitalization of companies, conducted by the auditing and consulting firm EY Switzerland, shows that despite strong geopolitical tensions and a subdued global economy, the stock market value of the 100 most expensive publicly traded companies in the world increased by 25 percent over the past year....Clearly leading in this area are companies from the USA: Of the 24 technology companies in the top 100, 18 are headquartered in the USA. Overall, US companies dominate the ranking – at the end of 2024, 62 US corporations are in the list of the highest-valued companies in the world. Of the ten most expensive companies, nine are headquartered in the USA. https://www.ey.com/en_ch/newsroom/2025/01/us-corporations-dominate-global-stock-markets-europe-and-asia-lag-far-behind This is despite China doing so well. The riches of the USA are beyond anything the Chinese have achieved. America will win this trade war.

To be fair modern porn is exceptionally good these days, this was bound to happen.

Fish and chips looks interesting.

The counter argument would be the American car success stories in Europe, the Ford Mondeo, the Ford Fiesta and many others sold rather well in Europe. if the car is good it will sell, provided the price is right. European consumers are much like any other, if a good car can be bought at a low price, they don't mind buying Romanian or Korean cars. The problem is that the American cars so far were not very competitive in Europe, barring the exceptions that sold well. I personally drove a Cadillac and have to say it is a very fine car and I am surprised Cadillacs do not sell well in Europe. I understand what you're saying about VAT, but I do think it is seen as an unwelcome complication and barrier to doing busines in Europe by many American companies. Since the US do not have this.

Very much.

Well, things are looking up already in that case.