FriscoKid

Post photos or it didn't happen.

Not necessarily. The economy could move even more towards stagflation. High prices, high unemployment, and no growth.

Exactly. The economy was solid prior to Trump's destructive economic policies because that tariff nonsense is now damaging the economy and the financial markets. Trump should have come in and touched nothing and we wouldn't be here. Inflation was low and still falling and unemployment was also at a record low. The perfect economy. But that was too good for Trump and he rather destroy that and say "I did it my way". Cutting interest rates will reignite the economy, bring down the cost of Federal debt servicing, and cause the financial markets to rally again. Gold will fall and oil prices may rise. Cheap money for everyone! It's "The Fed Put".

That’s not really true at all. Inflation has been on a steady downward trajectory for the last two years. Most of it came down during the prior administration, and any continued decline in inflation over the last two months is just a continuation of that effect. You can ask any economist and they can explain that to you. But tariffs are an inflationary policy, which will also lead to higher unemployment. It will take a few months for the effects of that to show in the numbers. So unless Trump backs off from his tariff campaign, you will most likely see inflation reverse and start moving back up in the opposite direction.

There is a theory floating around that this whole trade war designed by Trump has now shifted into simply being a red herring to try and get (what he sees as an uncooperative Fed chairman) to cut interest rates rapidly. That in itself could help Trump to be perceived to be a winner on the economy. I get the sense that his view is quite a bit wider than just a banker's perspective. I don't think he could've become as successful as he has with having too much banker tunnel vision.

To respond in short summary to what you said, Trump’s entire presidency is based on anger and vendettas. I never expected him to make any good, balanced or right decisions because of that. And based on his first term, everything he did involved chaos and destruction. So expecting him to make the right decisions now, for the U.S. or for his own future, seems unrealistic. He only has one dream, and that’s to destroy China. He will fail, but the question is, to what end? As for Jamie Dimon, I’ve always enjoyed hearing what he has to say. He doesn’t come across as someone pretending to have a crystal ball. He was asked questions and he's just basing his opinions on his understanding of the situation. He’s built the biggest and most successful bank in the world so he has a lot of credibility. Unlike Trump, he seems to care about people and the future of the world. He always comes across as fair and understanding, and I find his opinions useful. I’ll link the interview below in case you’re interested in watching it, then you can judge for yourself. It’s hard to predict exactly what will happen with China in the future. But two things are certain: they are patient and resilient, and it’s a very powerful dictatorship that would be extremely difficult to disrupt. Treasuries are moving into dangerous and uncharted territory. Dimon was asked about that as well. I think the situation can be restored and saved if it’s not left to wobble for too long, but it could require the Fed to step in very quickly and cut interest rates by at least 200 basis points as an immediate reaction, similar to what they did during the COVID crash.

If there’s one thing that’s clear, it’s that no one can force China to do something it doesn’t want to do. Governments have been trying for decades, and it’s always been a waste of time. China has been looking to decouple from the U.S. for years due to unstable relations, and this current situation is only accelerating a process they’ve known was necessary for the past two decades. Rather than being cornered, China is being nudged into doing something it’s been preparing for all along, building stronger trade networks beyond the U.S., reducing dependence on Western markets, and developing self-sufficiency in key sectors. In the long run, it’s entirely possible they emerge from all of this as the world’s largest economy. But without cheap imports from China, and without being able to export American products to China, American jobs and U.S. consumer spending will be lost and the U.S. economy will shrink.

It seems to me that the U.S. effectively cut off China, and much of the rest of the world, with Trump’s isolationist policies. Whatever China is doing now is merely reactionary. But that doesn’t mean they’re flailing. On the contrary, China is built for the long game. It’s a dictatorship that doesn’t care how much its own people suffer in the short term, they are also used to hardship, which gives it the ability to absorb economic shocks and wait things out. Trump, meanwhile, is wrecking the U.S. economy and raising the cost of living for Americans, despite promising the opposite during his campaign. The longer this continues, the more economic damage piles up. He can’t keep destroying the economy without facing serious consequences. Either he’s going to be forced to cave in or pushed out of government altogether. I watched the full interview yesterday with Jamie Dimon and the Financial Times. He made it clear: the U.S. has maybe three months to end this trade war before it turns into a full-blown disaster. China, on the other hand, could wait one or even two years and still be standing. The U.S. can’t. Americans aren’t used to economic hardship and won’t tolerate it for long. You don’t have to take my word for it. Just watch what happens.

Well, at least that should help to avoid too mutt of the thinking part. 😊

No tink too mutt na.

Less than 15 percent of China’s total exports go to the United States. That means 85 percent of their exports are already going to other parts of the world. They’ve been actively working to strengthen trade relationships across Asia and beyond to make up for that 15 percent shortfall. In the long run, they’ll be fine. The 150 billion dollars’ worth of overpriced goods they were essentially pressured to buy from the U.S. annually due to the trade imbalance can now be sourced more cheaply from alternative markets. So while their export numbers may dip temporarily, their overall trade position could end up stronger. Their imports will become cheaper, their supply chains more diversified, and they’ll be less dependent on a politically unpredictable U.S. I’m by no means a fan of China, but it’s hard to ignore the fact that they know how to adapt. In just fifty years, they’ve gone from being one of the poorest countries in Asia to becoming the world’s second-largest economy. My sense is, they’ll continue to adapt, continue to grow, and continue to strengthen economically, while the U.S. risks weakening itself and getting left behind.

I went into a place where everyone was high out of their minds. They said to me that I'm Not Approved Because I'm Not High So I left.

Desperation? It looks more like China is adapting and moving on, while the real damage is happening inside the U.S. Trump’s policies, especially his sweeping tariffs, are doing more to hurt the American economy than anyone abroad. Since January, we’ve seen business investment drop as companies freeze hiring and delay expansion. Major manufacturers are laying off workers due to rising costs and disrupted supply chains. U.S. exports are taking a hit as other countries retaliate with tariffs of their own, pricing American goods out of key markets. Wall Street is jittery, with markets swinging wildly every time a new trade threat is announced. The dollar has weakened, Treasuries are underperforming, and global confidence in the U.S. economy is slipping. Tourism is down, international students are pulling back, and consumer confidence has hit its lowest point in years. Even sectors that once thrived under open trade: tech, autos, agriculture, are now shedding jobs and facing mounting losses. So no, China doesn’t need to take down the U.S. economy. Trump’s doing it just fine on his own.

200 posts yet today, Susan from your 300 Baht a night Isarn sh*t-shack?

Siam Pharmaceutical. One of the biggest drug manufacturers in Asia.

Says the master of off-topic, tangential drivel.

Two more, wow. 🤩

Triggered.

I predicted you would call me weirdo today and you didn't fail to deliver. Bravo. I think you've now used up your five go-to insults already for the day. You've already called me a loser, a troll, pathetic, a weirdo and a stalker. So I guess there's nothing else for me to look forward to now. What a pity. Oh well, there's always tomorrow.

Franky needs a lie down.

Meds, Gamma, meds!

GG, are you OK? Off your meds again? China makes the parts and supplies them to Boeing. 😂

Omg, classic, lol. Let's us know when your done melting down so we can suck you up with a straw. Honest question though: how painful is it to give yourself a wedgie like that?

Any topic you start on AN draws more off-topic posts about the stupidity of the topic and personal attacks against you than any other poster on this entire site. You’ve even managed to outdo Bob Smith in that category, which I didn’t think was possible. Honestly, you should get an award. That level of consistent derailment and distaste is quite an achievement.

Triggered are you, snowflake? 😂