JonnyF

4 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Erm no. 

 

Having a vote when people are better informed of the consequences will do. 

 

If you believe Brexit the will of the people you can hardly object. 

I was informed. If you weren't that's your problem you should have done more research on the subject - no need to vote again.

I object because voting again before the first vote has been implemented is against my democratic principles.

5 minutes ago, stephenterry said:

Speculation, dear boy. A result is a result as all leavers would say -it was a democratic victory for a pro EU party. 

True.

I accept the result as I am a democrat. Do you accept the result of the referendum?

Splitting the Leave vote between Tories and the Brexit party will not end well for either of them.

Funny how the main policy of the Liberal Democrats is to reverse the outcome of a democratic vote. A name change might be in order.

Nothing to do with the bikes, Thailand needs to train/educate the riders and enforce the law.

I've had several big bikes here, GSXR600, 899 Panigale, MT09 and the only crash I had was on a 110 cc Yamaha Nouvo when I hit some idiot reversing down Bang Na Trat road because he hadn't stopped in time for the grilled chicken stall.

The focus on big bikes lately is just an easy story for the media because a few minor celebrities have crashed. A nice deflection from the real issues.

1 hour ago, mike787 said:

If Thailand can improve their immigration and investment rules/laws towards foreigners would help.  As a foreigner, it would be financial suicide to buy property or condo's and brain wash myself into believing this is an investment.  Sure, anything is an investment to anyone.  

Let's define investment:  What is the "Return on Investment" (ROI) you expect to see?  If you cannot break inflation as determined by your country, or Thailand then you are losing money.  Then add to that fact, the time, effort, stress, and operational cost.  Now what is you ROI?  Some don't care, they just want it.  But if you are wise and informed, maybe the real estate investment is not so sexy...useless as lip stick on a pig.

I think it depends when you buy. I bought about 4 years and brought GBP over when the exchange rate was 55. The condo hasn't increased in price but I've lived rent free for 4 years which is almost 30% of the unit price back already and if I sold today for the same price that I bought it for I'd make 30% on the exchange rate. That's a pretty good ROI.

Plus I'm free to decorate it nicely without asking for permission or feeling like I'm refurbishing someone else's place and I have the security of knowing that I won't be kicked out when the landlords friend wants it or they get a better offer in terms of rent or decide to sell. It's a bit of stability, I have no regrets buying and wish I did it sooner after renting for 8 years.

10 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

These are not developments, they are, figuratively speaking, 'birds in the bush'.

 

Of course they are developments.

But for the 3rd time now, we cannot have a 'bird in the hand' until we've left. We haven't left yet, therefore we cannot sign a trade deal yet. I don't know how to put it any more simply than that.

14 minutes ago, damascase said:

Do you really think that the UK will be able to get better deals than the EU?

You mean with countries like the USA? Since the EU does not have a proper trade deal with the USA then it's not really going to be tough to beat, is it?

How about the EU's trade deal with China? Tough to beat? 

Of course, who cares about small economies like USA and China?

20 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Having spent much of the past 30 years working in SE Asia for a UK based business, I'm struggling to understand what you are on about. 

 

The  EU has never been a barrier to the UK doing international business, in SE Asia or anywhere else - far from it. 

I've been working in manufacturing here for over 12 years and we do a lot of business to the UK, and whilst our regulatory department might disagree with your last statement (not to mention there are many countries that the EU does not have trade deals with so you could consider that a barrier to the UK trading with them) it wasn't really my point. Since you confess to struggling to keep up again, I will try again.

I was explaining that we cannot do independent trade deals with other countries until we've left the EU, so complaining that we haven't done one yet when we don't leave until October is not really a valid criticism.

Once we've left, I was explaining that we can do what we want and sign deals like the one lined up with South Korea. A deal with SE Asia would be hugely advantageous therefore Dominic Raab's visit is most welcome, a sensible and encouraging course of action. Things seem to be gathering pace under Johnson, more action in less than 2 weeks than we saw in 3 years of May's cowardly reign. I realize these developments must be an affront to the doom and gloom you like to peddle, but don't let it cloud your judgement.

6 minutes ago, fishtank said:

I thought Liam Fox had been traveling round the world for 3 years signing up lucrative trade deals everywhere.

 

My Wife can sell them some Som Tam if they want.

What a joke my country has become

We can't sign until we've left. He has been lining up deals though, such as this South Korean one.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/10/uk-south-korea-brexit-trade-deal-asia-eu

Looking to SE Asia is a smart move. You don't put all your eggs in one basket, especially if that basket is the EU. Better to be an outward looking, global economy than limiting yourself to a protectionist racket with which you have a 68 Billion trade deficit, and paying through the nose for the privilege.  

11 minutes ago, sniggie said:

Major surgery is painful and should only be undertaken when necessary. Prior to the referendum result the country was coasting along quite happily as part of the EU. No surgery was required!

Most diseases are easier to cure if caught early, you don't wait until it's life threatening.

You think it's tough to leave now? Just wait until the federalists have a tighter grip and the projects like the EU Army are in full swing. I'm just glad we didn't join the Euro or it might have been too late already. Time to extricate ourselves from the United States of Europe. Sure they'll try and kneecap us for leaving their gang, that's the nature of the protectionist racket that the EU has become, but fortunately most of the country has the balls to stand on our own 2 feet and get out.

32 minutes ago, dick dasterdly said:

Why does the UK have to wait until it has left the EU before negotiating UK/EU trade deals?

The EU will not negotiate anything until they get the 39 Billion and all the other little tricks/rules agreed such as locking us into the perpetual backstop until 20xx (yes, 20xx is the actual text believe it or not, May actually signed up to that!!!). This is why the future relationship is not legally binding, it's just wordy fluff from the EU, vague promises, a carrot on a stick to try and make us sign up to the completely one sided, EU gets everything and UK gets nothing, Theresa May surrender treaty in the hope we might get a few crumbs tossed to us later. It would be like agreeing to give your ex wife half the house and all your savings based on a non legally binding promise that she'll do her best to let you see the kids once a week next year.

Once they have the 39 Billion and the backstop in their grubby pockets they will set the clock to zero and will be free to demand another xx Billion for a trade deal if they so wish. If we don't agree, they keep us locked in via the backstop since at that point they will hold all the cards. If you remember they wanted close to 100 Billion for the divorce settlement when talks opened so don't rule out a demand for a tens of Billions more for a trade deal despite the fact they are the side with the trade surplus.

No, the EU will not negotiate with a level head while they are still trying to extort 39 Billion and keep us locked in for eternity so the best way is a clean break. Trade for a few months on WTO rules, see off Juncker and Barnier and then approach them to see if they are still sulking about being rejected or if they want to discuss a fair, sensible trade deal with a the fifth largest economy in the world that happens to be on their doorstep and in regulatory alignment with them. 

But remember, Hell hath no fury like a woman The EU scorned.

1 hour ago, puipuitom said:

Look around in Thailand: how many Mercedes, BMW, Audi, VW and.. how many British made... 

Same for many other countries.

Why you think nearly all British car makers went nearly bankrumpt and were bought by overseas car makers ? Because British cars were so excellent ? Even RR and Bentley are German owned.

Last-but-not-least: which British car manufacturers you mean ?  There is nearly nothing left. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry_in_the_United_Kingdom  

Why are you talking about Thailand sales of German cars, Thailand isn't even in the top 10 for German car exports.

In Thailand it's very rare to see a German car outside Bangkok (unless it has Bangkok plates) and of the German cars in Bangkok, the Thai goverment has made more money in sales tax on that car than the Germans made selling it.

However, the point here is that if the UK Government adds high tariffs to German cars then it will cost the Germans a lot of money in lost sales, and with the German economy teetering at the moment that is not money they can afford to lose. Not to mention if the UK public become so irritated by the behavior of the EU towards the UK that they decide to buy Japanese cars instead. Or maybe South African or South American Wine. Australian and NZ meat products. Start eating our own fish from our reclaimed UK waters etc.

I would bet my last penny that EU countries are putting a lot of pressure on the likes of Barnier now to drop the arrogant attitude and have a sensible conversation. It must be a bitter pill for him to swallow that he wasn't able to stitch the UK up with May's surrender treaty but it's time to get over it.

1 hour ago, Sujo said:

GB is leaving. Why should the EU care about any deal at all.

A 64 Billion pound trade surplus in 2018. That's a pretty good reason to want to continue trading as smoothly as possible.

1 hour ago, Sticky Wicket said:

The GFA agreement has nothing to do with Brexit, it's a red herring .

There will never be a hard border anyway, again a load of BS to push a narrative.

The only place in which it alludes to infrastructure at the border is in the section on security.

During the Troubles there were heavily fortified army barracks, police stations and watchtowers along the border. They were frequently attacked by Republican paramilitaries.

Part of the peace deal involved the UK government agreeing to a process of removing those installations in what became known as "demilitarisation".

The agreement states that "the development of a peaceful environment... can and should mean a normalisation of security arrangements and practices."

The government committed to "as early a return as possible to normal security arrangements in Northern Ireland, consistent with the level of threat".

That included "the removal of security installations". That is as far as the text goes.

Exactly. The backstop was created as a method to keep us locked in and a bargaining chip for the subsequent trade deal, Macron admitted he would use it as leverage to have access to UK waters. It was so blatant that even the Guardian reported it.

It also raised the potential for the EU to prize NI from the UK and take it under the wing of the EU. In a worst case scenario, it would give the EU the option of removing it as a last minute 'concession' to the UK to 'get the deal done' when in reality it is solving a problem that never existed.

Even if there are some spot checks of goods at the border for the purpose of collecting tariffs, there will be no armed military presence.

Personally I don't believe removing the backstop is enough. They need to reduce the financial settlement by a huge amount (especially since we will have been paying the membership fees for an extra 7 months due to the extension) and make some other concessions before we could agree to the WA. I'd rather go No Deal and then start talks about the trade deal once we're 100% out. Invite them to London, remind them of their trade surplus with us, their potential continued access to UK fishing waters and see whether they want to have a sensible discussion. 

1 hour ago, Nigel Garvie said:

I think I'm back at school, "Please miss I understand the difference between voting to leave and actually leaving."  

Not the point though really, is it. Obviously Brexit effects the economy both as a major concern to business etc when it is possible (I.e. after the vote) and when/if it actually happens and we leave. We have lost many major businesses to the rEU already. Every reputable financial body (IMF, OECD, UK GOV stats,  etc etc etc) and the vast majority of economists (Excluding nutters like Minford) say Brexit is really bad news, (And no deal Brexit a disaster). Of course some of the effect is felt before the event. Osbourne and Camerons scare stories (They wanted to keep their jobs) are now totally irrelevant, they lost power, whereas Bojo's lies still are relevant. 

 

I don't refer to the JonnyF's post above particularly, but rather to the generality of Brexiteer posts in this long thread and others. Contrary to scare stories put about by them, the EU has not actually banned people from wearing our Union Jack underpants/knickers  in the event we were tasteless enough to want to do that.

The point is that Brexiteers didn't believe Project Fear phase 1 and it was subsequently proved to be nonsense as we predicted. We also do not leave the latest rendition and will be proved to be correct again should the Remainers ever accept the result of the democratic vote and stop their devious plotting to overturn it. Will there be short term disruption? Of course there will, but the horror stories are ridiculous. It's like the boy who cried wolf.

Considering the Remainers like to portray Leavers as thick and gullible, they do tend to believe a lot of the nonsense that the establishment feeds them.

Oh and here is Carney's own admission that he got it wrong, as requested by another poster.

https://www.politico.eu/article/mark-carney-eats-humble-pie-on-brexit/

11 hours ago, stevenl said:

Yes, and it may happen.

But the post I reacted to said the negative economic scenarios after brexit are clearly not correct since they don't show yet. With brexit not effectuated that is quite logical.

The predictions were based on a Vote to Leave, not leaving. They said there would be an emergency budget immediately after a Leave Vote and hundreds of thousands of job losses and I repeat, just by Voting to leave not actually leaving (I hope you understand the difference between the two).

Therefore you are wrong, just as Carney was with his pathetic attempt at scare mongering that most intelligent people simply ignored, and were proved correct to ignore.

7 minutes ago, cleopatra2 said:

Is there time to actually negotatiate a new deal. The EU negotiating team would require a new mandate.

With the coming shutdowns there is insufficient time.

If there is the will then there is enough time. Unfortunately there is no will from the EU side.

If I was Johnson I'd tell them to stick a decimal point between the 3 and the 9 of the financial settlement and drop the backstop. We'll throw in a lifetime supply of Scotch Whisky for Juncker as a sweetener, that's gotta be worth another Billion quid. Give them 24 hours to let me know their answer.