billd766

6 minutes ago, herfiehandbag said:

The "Mad Mullahs" (what an appropriate term) have been engaged in a slow burn conflict with Israel for decades. They run terrorism throughout that part of the world, with Israel as the main target. They own Hezbollah, are largely in control of Hamas, and are an active, not potential, existential threat to Israel. They do not share a border with Israel, other than by proxy with Lebanon and Syria. If the geography was different, and they did have a border they would have launched full scale conventional war long ago.

 

Their great boast and the great threat is their emerging missile launched nuclear capability. Israel ignoring that will simply make no difference; so Israel has laid down a marker, shown they are aware, and have the capacity to react.

 

In my opinion, and such predictions are just that, opinions, I suspect that Iran will not be able to resist the opportunity to launch nuclear missiles once they have them. They are not constrained by the moral and political constraints which hold sway amongst the worlds other nuclear armed countries (including Israel) which dictate no "first use".

 

So I expect, sadly, Iran to initiate a nuclear exchange. The weapons will not be on the scale or in the quantity which would be involved in the much studied and modelled prospect of a superpower nuclear exchange. Israel has phenomenal (and phenomenally expensive) anti aircraft and anti missile defences, but some will get through,  there will still be a lot of damage. Iran's missile and nuclear capacity, along probably with it's communication and IT systems, will be destroyed.

 

Let's try and look on the bright (?) side, the Mullahs regime may collapse under that damage.

I agree with the first half of your post though I am not so sure about the second part, where the mad mullahs will be unable to resist using their new nuclear weapons.

Their military leaders will point out that by using them the mullahs will actually be ensuring their own destruction, that of their country plus that of their Shi'a religion, with no guarantee of the complete destruction of Israel, nor would their be any chance of destroying "the great Satan" that they call the USA.

I think that they would need to build at least 11 nuclear weapons and find a country that will allow them to test one of the first to see if it actually works. Possibly Russia or more likely (if at all)or North Korea may let them. there is nothing worse than building a big bomb only to find out (if/when) you set it off it doesn't go bang.

How long it will take to build them I have no idea, as it is not something that I would build at home (it is not in my skillset), even if I could find the plans on the internet.

19 hours ago, placnx said:

Your post has good points, but it now appears that the Israel war cabinet has taken the advice of many countries not to escalate. You are right that Israel always wants to make the final response, and it seems that Iran understands this.

 

When Iran attacked I think that the participation of Jordan and others to mitigate damage to Israel was prudent so as to keep the hardliners in the Netanyahu government from getting traction in their campaign to have a major counterattack on Iran. I don't know whether Jordan and the GCC did so, but they should have told the Israel war cabinet that in the case of a major response by Israel they would not repeat the aid given when Iran attacked the first time.

Iran did NOT attack Israel first, but simply responded to the Israeli attack on its consulate/embassy, and from what I have read, that was then end of it as far as Iran was concerned. 

However the Israeli's had to make a second attack, which was stupid in the extreme.

Hopefully that should be the end of it, but with the murderous war cabinet in Israel and the mad mullah's in Iran, who knows.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68854498

There is more information in the link

Israel's far-right National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir, said a few days ago he wanted Israel to "go berserk" in response to Iran's attack. This morning the minister - upon whose faction the Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, depends - seemed less than impressed. On X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, he posted one word, best translated as: "Lame."

After Iran's attack last weekend, I spoke to Daniel Greenzweig, 65, a businessman working in the hi-tech sector, who told me: "We need to hit them and we need to hit them hard. They need to realise that that is not the kind of behaviour that can be tolerated. I am not recommending we destroy their nuclear facilities but, if they did, I wouldn't have a problem with it."

However

An opinion poll published earlier this week by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem suggested 52% of people believed Israel should not respond, with 48% saying it should. It also found that only 28% of people supported military action if it led to a larger overall war, with 34% saying they were opposed, with a sizeable 38% saying they did not know.

4 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

Iran launched a barrage of drones and missiles against Israel.

 

Iran is very close, some say as close as six months, to putting together a working nuclear warhead for those drones and missiles.

 

I don't think provocation comes into it - once they have the nuclear warhead Iran will, almost inevitably, threaten to use it if not use it. The Iranian regime has declared what it claims is a sacred mission to destroy Israel. They are a theocracy, one cannot comfortably assume that they do not mean it.

 

Is it a provocation for Israel to demonstrate that they can reach into Iran if they want?

IMHO IF Israel keeps provoking Iran there will be a day of reckoning when the mad mullahs simply will retaliate, and no matter how loud or how long Israel keeps denying it, they will have brought retaliation of the worst kind upon themselves, and on many other parts of the world.

4 hours ago, cncltd1973 said:

Israel is the tip of our spear with most Arab countries now in our coalition. Iran is the new North Korea but with near-nuclear capabilities and an open desire to use them. this isn't about keeping the peace anymore, we're halfway into a chess match with Iran (and Russia) with nuclear consequences. personally, I think it's brilliant that Israel and Ukraine are holding the wall for us. the least we can do is provide them sharpening stones

I posted the confused emoji.

Who is "our" and who is "we"?

Perhaps you mean the governments and not all of the people.

But please don't include me in the "our" and "we".

 In fact why not just speak for yourself and add the rider "and anybody who agrees with me".

I agree with you about supporting the Ukraine, but I definitely disagree with you about supporting the murderous slaughter of innocent Palestinian men women and children by Israel.

5 hours ago, 2long said:

I bet you lead a very lonely life!

All you ever do is quote on others' 'posts and pick holes in what they say!

Some of us are sometimes wrong. But most of us write what we think or feel at the time.

All you ever do is pick up on things which you don't agree with or feel that you can prove are wrong.

Yes, sometimes you're right and we're wrong... but I bet most members om this forum are happier than you.

Oh, and we all know you want the final word, so go for it... while you're quote a load of other members.

I agree with you 100%.

Most of the time I see his name come up, I just skip over the post..

3 hours ago, john smith said:

BillD766 has failed to notice that " critical illness" is in inverted commas  which obviously indicates irony 

 

Why not reply to billd766 post or even send him a message. He doesn't bite.

4 hours ago, hotchilli said:

And that money comes from ????

Everybody who pays some sort of tax including the 80 to 90% of the people who cannot actually use the systems, simply because they don't live in Bangkok.

5 hours ago, xylophone said:

It looks like we are going to have to agree to disagree on this, and as for the leadership in both Israel and Hamas being replaced by non-religious leaders, well that's a pipe dream, and some.

Then the war will carry on and more people on both sides will die until somebody has the balls to say that enough is enough and intervene.

Who that will be I have no idea.

Personally, I think that it should be President Biden and the USA, but he and the USA have enough internal problems in this election year to cope with.

How can I select a 365 day time period without saving it as a new stream?

Every time I try and then go elsewhere and return it reverts to the time period since I last posted.

2 hours ago, xylophone said:

The IDF do not purposely attack/target Palestinians, they target Hamas, and in the process there are sure to be "casualties of war" and as has already been discovered, there are many so-called "innocent Palestinians" who support Hamas, so what do you expect.

 

As a gesture of goodwill Hamas could release the hostages, that's the first step, but Hamas being a terrorist organisation will not do this. That is a simple first step which could break the deadlock, so why won't Hamas do this.

For a sophisticated military force who can target the roof of a moving vehicle because some IDF soldier "thought" 3 vehicles were taken over by Hamas, why would they destroy an apartment building to target one apartment and perhaps kill the occupants and NOT kill any other people or destroy the building?

That IMHO, is an overkill unless they intended to do so in the first place.

Do you really believe that if Hamas released all the hostages that the war would instantly stop and all the IDF would return to Israel?

Netanyahu has said that he wants to, in his words, destroy Hamas in Gaza completely.

If he does, do you believe think that the war will instantly stop and all the IDF would return to Israel?

What if all the hostages are released, Hamas destroyed in Gaza, and the war does not stop?

Where will he attack next? The West bank, Lebanon. Jordan or anywhere else there are Palestinians?

Will Hamas keep fighting Israel and the IDF until the last warm Palestinian body in Gaza has died and then the war will be over?

IMHO the war will never be over until the current leadership in both Hamas AND Israel are removed, and replaced by non religious leaders with common sense, who are sick of the slaughter by BOTH sides.

38 minutes ago, webfact said:

The OP is written by 

THAI NEWSROOM

and NOT by Thaiger 

 

The footer says:

 

Full story: THAI NEWSROOM 2024-04-18

 

//Admin 

There is very little information that I can find about Thai Newsroom apart from the About Us part of their website, which says

Veteran journalists starting afresh
The team of journalists launching this news portal have decades of experience and are dedicated to bringing readers both in Thailand and at every corner of the world the very best news about Thailand and of course rest of the world.

We want to use the wealth of knowledge and experience we have gained through years of hard work to bring timely, accurate, insightful and balanced news that will help our readers stay ahead of the game of life, be this a small issue at home or a major national or international development.

We will be by your side every day to help shed light on what is actually going on and really value your support.

The internet has described by Eric Bleecher as the “first mass medium in history with almost no barriers to entry and practically unlimited content-carrying capacity” and we are fully part of this new digital wave and will remain digitally close to you by being just a few clicks away.

Sincerely,

Nina Suebsukcharone

(Founder and acting Editor)

Nothing about the ownership, the staff, how long they have been in existence. In fact until this thread I had never even heard of them.

Are they a major supplier of Thai news to all and sundry including the Thaiger and ANN or just the latest New Kids On The Block?

But was the pupil concerned, "forced" to go to that particular school, or did she attend voluntarily and then try to change the rules into her (minority) favour?

1 hour ago, eyeman said:

Yes Really. Ignorance award of the year above.

Ice factories can be deadly, Father Joe of Mercy center thought this battle maybe 25 years ago (could be more?) in Klong Toey on behalf of the poor people  affected by ammonia leaks and tragic end result, there is no such thing as a simple ice factory..

Ignorance of the year award. Really?

Where are all YOUR explanations, diagrams etc referring to what happened?

I learned a lot more about ammonia leaks and ice plant from in a few minutes than I could ever learn from your posts in a lifetime.

He discussed the subject, provided links and easily understandable drawings.

And you discussed and provided what? Just what knowledge did you provide on the subject, other than a cheap and stupid insult?

3 minutes ago, xylophone said:

As a start Hamas could release the Israeli hostages...........but they are reluctant to do that for some reason; perhaps many of them have been killed??

 

If some sort of "proof of life" as regards to the hostages, was offered by Hamas, then that could be a start.

Equally as a start Israel could stop attacking the Palestinians in Gaza.

Sadly that is just as likely as Hamas releasing the Israeli hostages, and so the unceasing slaughter on both sides will continue.

Negotiations don't seem to work as one side or the other or both sides reject the outcome of every negotiation. 

IMHO the only way to some sort of "peace" is for 1 or more western nations to come into the area with armed forces to impose it.

However the nations who impose that peace had better have a lot of body bags with them and be prepared to wield a very big stick.

4 minutes ago, transam said:

53% +47% = 100%

What happened to all the other supplier countries in your supply equation........?  🤔

It seems that according to my government (UK), they only supply 0.42% of weapons to Israel.

39 minutes ago, NanLaew said:

 

I did answer your post.

 

You have a differing opinion and, in my opinion, a propensity to incorrectly and selectively define the ones who are committing 'murder'. Both Israel and Iran's proxies recognise this as a war. Military conflicts are historically chock-full of "acts of war", and the IDF are at war with Hamas.

 

Hamas uses hospitals and ambulances and Palestinian civilians as camouflage. Since they are at war, the Palestinian civilian's killed as a result of their deceit are also being murdered. Who's murdering them?

 

The IDF is NOT the correct answer.

I am sorry that I missed your post, my apologies.

If that is what you believe, fair enough.

I look at the numbers of killed and wounded on each side and I find that far more Palestinian men women and children have been killed than Israeli's, coming up to 100 to 1, Palestinians v Israeli's. A vastly disproportional ratio, especially given that about 60% or more were unarmed women an children. That is of course discounting those Palestinian men, women and children still buried in the rubble of their houses and apartment blocks.

Then of course who knows how many people will die of starvation, dehydration (no water), no medicines, no hospital care, no electricity etc.

But it will be reasonably certain that none of those will be Israeli.