JAG

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

An interesting article, but it misses or omits a few key points.

 

The article mentions overall defense spending, but it does not delve into what the actual threat(s) are to Thailand; a defense budget and the concurrent defense posture should correspond to a strategic analysis of current and future threats. I have never seen such a document (although I am certain one exists) and I do not see any large-scale military threat to Thailand currently or in the immediate future. What are the new equipment/upgrades for (specifically)?

 

Secondly, a better analysis of Thailand's military budget would also consider how monies are spent and whether there is 'value for money'. The most obvious place to begin is with the number of General Officers; I don't have the numbers off the top of my head, but there is something like 10 times too many Generals for an army of Thailand's size. Further, it would be worth asking if military personnel are being used effectively; I recall a few times seeing stories in the newspaper regarding conscripts being used as personal servants. Finally, as above, do the manpower targets/needs correspond to the threats? If so, how? What is the evidence?

 

Finally, as noted in paragraphs one and two, budgets should correspond to mission(s) and threat(s). What exactly are the missions of the Thai Military? What exactly are the threats to Thailand that the military deals with? And, most importantly, in light of the frequent coups that occur in Thailand, how is it possible that those missions and threats are being dealt with? This is the most significant question, and I do not see a clear answer.

 

Until and unless the cycle of coups ends for good, any military budget will not and can not correspond to an actual threat or threats, and thus is essentially meaningless in terms of proper military preparedness and proper budgeting; it is, for all intents and purposes, simply a pot of money to be used in whatever fashion the current commanders wish.

 

That is not a proper or effective use of a military budget.

 

SB, your points are all relevant to discussing the budget and spending needs and priorities of a "conventional military". The Thai military is different. You generously suggest that they may have strategic analysis of existing and potential strategic threats to Thailand. Frankly, I see no evidence of that. Their piecemeal procurement of a variety of equipments for example, of little or limited use in the environment (topographic, geographic, climatic or in terms of potential enemies) all purchased in incompatible penny packets belies that. It follows no coherent pattern. They have four different types of infantry rifles using 3 different ammunition types! They have half a dozen different types of field artillery, all using different ammunitions and sighting systems! There is no coherence, it is not considered. Procurement is driven by things other than need. The Thai military is different.

Similarly, when it comes to the extremely bloated senior staffs, they do not function like those of a modern professional military. A modern professional military has staffs to develop doctrines, plan training, conduct and monitor it. It is a collaborative process, across arms and services, and in the big picture between Army, Navy and Air Force, and with allies. Training starts at individual level, and goes through company and battalion level exercises to formation (brigade, divisional and higher) level exercises. Complex, expensive, but it leads to professional ability when you have to do it for real. In plain terms, it makes you effective, and means fewer of your people die. The Thai military is different.

This military (it's officers) are a group within society, dedicated to furthering their own political, economic and personal power. Their soldiers for the most part conscripts, have little or no military significance, but exist merely to provide a reason for their officers privilege. That is why they have little (almost no) real training. The equipment procurement for decades has been geared to "benefitting" those who make the purchasing decisions. The bulk of (largely unserviceable) equipments held are those effectively given to Thailand by the USA forty years ago during the Cold War.

It's different. The budget and how it is used reflects that, and unlike a modern professional military they are unaccountable to government.

I sat at a big junction here in Chiang Rai waiting for the lights to go green. Across the road was a giant video screen. It was showing an advert for a new pick up truck - it showed it leaping earthquake fissures, racing trains, and driving through what appeared to be a mortar barrage.

Quite a number of people seem determined to emulate these antics on the roads, in what, despite all the commercials and hype is essentially a rear wheel drive truck - ideal for trundling along with a variety of loads in the back on rural roads, but not a sports car! They end up upside down in a ditch - often dead. I drive a 30 km route daily, in an old pick up,  on what in the UK would be called  a "B" class road. I must see the aftermath of such accidents at least twice a month. Let's not even mention overtaking on blind bends...

But before curbing/educating such lunatic driving, there are three measures which would cut the toll by, what - 30% perhaps? Enforcing the existing laws on helmets, seatbelts and using mobile phones.

We had the police in school yesterday, talking to M4,5,&6 about motorcycles, racing, helmets, modified exhausts and lights etc. All wasted as there is no enforcement.

Another couple of watches...

3 minutes ago, stanleycoin said:

maybe he knows , some good lottery numbers. 

 

Judging by the desperation to get him back as soon as possible, I rather suspect that whatever he knows has  implications which would dwarf the lottery jackpot.

I wonder what it is?

13 hours ago, Grouse said:

Why? Many Brexiters can not put their trousers on the right way round without help. Why should parliament act in their favour? 

Here we go again...

He just can't help himself, he is so clever.

I blame TVF myself, all this talk of Interpol blue and red notices recently...

I wondered how long it would be before...

1 hour ago, Dexlowe said:

"Suspended without pay" is the usual term, isn't it?

 

Fact-finding investigation has faulted the school director of five issues, including maintenance of electrical system at school did not correspond with regulation; double spending on road construction at school; self-pocketing of revenue from the sale of oil palm seeds of the school; provision of poor quality lunch for school children; and allowing sale of carbonated soft drinks in school which is prohibited by the Education Ministry.

 

Can't have been much left in the trough for anyone else.

That's why such swift action has been taken...

16 minutes ago, candide said:

I don't see by which legal mechanism they can do it.

11 minutes ago, robblok said:

If they get enough votes they can amend the constitution ? Did YL not try something similar ? 

 

Or does the senate with its part appointed senators is too powerful to ever overcome ? 

If a party (or more likely) a coalition does manage to muster the votes to change the constitution then I suspect this is what will happen: 

A protest movement, including "people's and "democracy" in its title will emerge, led by Suthep. They will cause chaos in Bangkok, probably seize parliament and the government offices. An election will be called, but the Army will stage a coup as inevitably it will look like the "wrong" people will be returned to government.

You can bet your last Baht on it - or you could if Suthep and his merry men, staging one of their mobile protection rackets (sorry I meant march to solicit donations) haven't passed by and taken it.

There is only one way this will be changed, and that will be messy.

15 minutes ago, Thailand said:

Don't you just love the "kiss my ring" pose from the train!

I recall a Charlie Chaplin film featuring a premier and a train...

2 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

You've been on the Shin cool-aid again! They like to believe they'd be elected again too. Whereas the people may have had enough of Shin kleptocracies and watching to the two fugitive billionaire fraudsters living it up in their private jet and hiso lifestyle. 

 

The new parties may do better than anyone thinks. Whether they'll be any different is another matter.

Would this be a good occasion to mention that one of the main drivers of the coup was to forestall the election, arguably because the Shinewatras party was on course to win. Oddly enough the same was true of the previous coup.

Of course the reluctance of the current regime to hold an election unfortunately (and I am sure this is an unintended consequence) prevents us from testing the hypothesis that popular support has turned away from the Shinewatras...

4 minutes ago, stephen tracy said:

If the Shins really want to wind Man-Child up good and proper, they ought to make sure they're photographed in London on the exact same day as Man-Child's up and coming visit with Theresa and Boris. It'd be a classic, and the poor little imbecile would have an absolute tantrum. 

Perhaps a picture of them looking at the fossilized dinosaurs in the Natural History Museum?

34 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

And what type of Visa, Passport are they traveling into the USA on?  Can't be diplomatic since that was all recalled revoked wasn't it? 

Maybe there is a visa which allows elected politicians deposed by military juntas to enter and visit the US. It would seem that rather a lot of countries are equally relaxed about these procedures - quite scandalous really...

7 minutes ago, coulson said:

 

This unlicensed drivers problem is definitely getting worse don't you think?