spidermike007

On August 13, 2016 at 9:50 AM, chainarong said:

Quit frankly the whole episode has been handled shoddy , on the OZ TV the reporter is saying the police knew of impending attacks but didn't know where , fair enough,  however  they said nothing,  not even a warning to everybody to be awhere that attacks may take place ,this would not prevent injuries , but it would have indicated the Junta had everyone's welfare as a  priority ,  this is not good , and it is evident that the Junta will do anything to preserve the tourist industry at any cost................................................

It would be safe to say that only a very small percentage of people believe that the military EVER had the welfare and safety of the public as a priority. And many who believed that in the beginning are now realizing that was never the case. It is a bit like saying Obama was serious about developing a green energy industry in the US, or the Yingbat was serious about fixing the flooding issues, or Trump is serious about sticking up for the little guy. They are all phony. 

There is no doubt in my mind that this was the work of factions opposed to the horrific power grab represented by the new constitution and referendum. It gave the army far more power, and influence over the country for many years to come. Since discussion and debate were not allowed, and the public was not informed about the true intentions of the vote, there was bound to be some hostile elements left behind. Extreme power has it's consequences.

The real shame, is that this only feeds into the hands of the military. Unrest only gives them more control. And the goons that are responsible for these attacks are only weakening their own economy (appears to be their intention) and tourist industry. Perhaps they are anarchists? The woman who was killed in the first attack was a poor som tam vendor in Hua Hin. What can one even say?

8 hours ago, Nasrullah said:

All the raids are a joke.......the girls are bending over backwards to move the country forward

Well spoken. On a certain level, I think the women of Thailand are the driving force behind everything. I doubt much would get done here without them. They seem to be far more industrious than most of the men. That is especially apparent in the military, where the top guys are simply taking up space. 

14 hours ago, waldroj said:

 

spidermike007,

 

I have been recording TAT's monthly tourism figures since January 2014 (to see what impact the coup may have had), so I hope I can provide the "source" you are asking for.

 

I think we share a similar view, but I have to agree with CantSpell (even though he is missing an apostrophe) in both his assessment of tourism AND (like you too) small business!

 

Unless the TAT is lying in its figures (http://www.tourism.go.th/home/listcontent/11/221/276), tourist visitation numbers from almost all countries have shown increasing trends year-on-year for some time (even post-coup).

 

The following table (based on my records of TAT statistics comparing the arrivals from the top 20 countries visiting Thailand) shows that (with the exception of Russia and a few other nations) visitation numbers have increased in the calendar year 2015 compared to 2014. There are some interesting increases in this list!

 

The latest data from TAT (for the period January-June) do show some decline in visitors from some countries (but, this may be attributable to local or seasonal issues).

 

So, while I am not disputing your "word or mouth" information (especially with the small-business owners), I am suggesting that maybe we are seeing more of a different type of visitor coming to Thailand - fewer business people (who would stay in the higher-end hotels, and use those services you mention), and more budget-oriented- and packaged-tourists with limited spending.

 

Still, it's hard to dispute the TAT claims when you consider that: in 2014 Thailand had 24.8 million visitors; in 2015 it had 29.9 million visitors; and in the first six months of this year, it has had 16.6 million visitors (4.2 million of them from China)!

 

 

 

I do not trust those TAT figures. I do not trust any government agency here. And I am convinced those include business visas, and border bounces. So, they are not accurate. 

1 hour ago, KKr said:

 

Sure, ha ha 

We must be looking at that photo with a completely different perspective. I think the one on the right is very cute. Yes, the one in the middle looks a bit tough, but she lifted 200KG! Can you do that? 

33 minutes ago, CantSpell said:

 

 

I do not agree with you 100%, the tourism has changed but it is not down and far from suffering.

 

Small business yes, less and less gogo's in the bar and less "europeans" for the small restaurants and such but tourism is not down at all

 

Many hotels in Phuket are 7-10% up compared to last year and price has not dived, Pattaya 15% up, Hua Hin dropping a little, BKK is up...

That is for the year, and no I will not give my source (but it is reliable) and it is not Ministry of Tourism data...

 

And mostly tourists do not give a darn about Thailand politics and announcements as long as no live rounds are been fired in the streets...

Food, cheap shopping, beaches, decent weather (rain is warm so not a big issue), temples, discovery of Asia,touristic facilities (hotels, relative safety, sightseeing, hookers (counted as the last) are why tourists come...

They do not care about shirt colors and politics are long as there are no immediate threat...

 

 

 

I would love to know your source. I am not basing this assessment on macroeconomic data, but rather word of mouth, from hotel people I know (including some GM's that work in 5 star properties) spa owners, owners of massage shops, gift stores, travel agencies, restaurants and bars. They are ALL complaining. Plus, I see it with my own eyes, when I travel. While you say business is up in Phuket, when I am there I see a virtual ghost island, compared to what I have seen in the past. Same goes for Samui. Normally August is a busy month. It is dead there right now. My recent trips to Pattaya are the same results, though you always have a core group that support the place. More Chinese tourists than ever, and they do not spend much money, at all. I am not sure about Bangkok, though I do hear some complaints. I am definitely referring more to small businesses, but they are the backbone of the Thai economy and more than likely employ a substantial amount of it's people. Granted, unemployment is low. But, so are revenues at these tourist related companies, from what I can tell. 

Just another example of Tourism and Sports Minister Kobkarn Wattanavrangkul occupying space on another planet. She is so completely out of touch with the tourism elements within the country, that she is willing to say something this preposterous. Anyone involved in the business knows hotels, restaurants, travel agencies, tour operators, gift shops, tour guides, massage shops, and all other related tourism businesses are suffering. Business is down from last year, and that was a terrible year for tourism. One cannot really count the zero baht Chinese tourists, as she insists on doing. There are few that are benefitting from their purchases of bottles of water, fruit shakes, cigarettes, and t-shirts. 

Back here on earth, people are realizing that this economy is being run into a further state of decline, and there is not much light at the end of the tunnel, and if there is, it may be the headlamp of an oncoming train. 

Congratulation to these fine athletes, for accomplishing something truly extraordinary. Thailand is not well known as a world leader in sports. So, this is a great feat! LET'S GO THAILAND!

I will definitely be changing this SIM to my wife's name. Not going to let any government track me, with my consent. Not a chance. Many can try. But, not going to cooperate if I can help it, thank you very much. 

5 hours ago, clockman said:

As a former minister said, white lies are ok!

Because anything white is goooood. Really now. Is this coming directly from the Tourism Ministry? Or from the little man? Is this really a Bloomberg survey? Somehow I find that a little far fetched. Granted unemployment is fairly low here. But I hear hotels, restaurants, travel agencies, massage shops, and so many other tourist related businesses complaining. All say business is down, year on year. And last year was a dreadful year for the industry. Exports are down. Car sales are down. So, where exactly are the bright spots? 

The little man continues to do an exemplary job of running the economy into the ground, and making the country less appealing to outsiders and investors. So, again I ask. Is there any truth to this survey, or is it just more muckety muck? 

This complete fool broke the cardinal rule of martial infidelity. Smart men have been practicing it for millennium. If you are going to cheat on your wife, make sure it is done as discreetly as possible. That means a hotel room, outside of the town you live in! Why would he even want to take that chance? Bringing her back to their home? What a complete goon. Was any thought whatsoever put into this act of stupidity? Why would he want to humiliate his wife like this? Of course she reacted in the way she did. 

Stupid is stupid. Ignorant is ignorant. This absolutely tiny man, with a tiny heart almost wanted to get caught, based on the foolishness he displayed. What an idiot. 

I have a friend who teaches english for a US contractor, at the Royal Palace in Kabul. He travels with an armed convoy between the Army base, and the palace every day. He realizes there are risks, but would never dream of traveling on his own. I mentioned the idea of someone working for a university there, and also the idea of tourists in Afghanistan, and he just shook his head. The idea of anyone doing this is sheer insanity. Nothing wrong with taking some chances in life, but this takes the cake. There are some actions one can take, where you just subject yourself to any event, any possibility, any consequence. This is definitely one of them. Hard to feel a great degree of sympathy for them. Kind of like the sort of empathy one might feel for someone who lost their life climbing Annapurna. You take those kinds of chances, and you just don't know what fate is going to throw your way. 

The entire planet knows how guilty the Russians are. No amount of PR, and no amount of deflection on the part of the Olympic committee, will ever be able to remove the egg on it's face. Someone is purchasing a new villa at this moment, with the funds that were paid by Russia. It is an absolutely sickening development, that any of the Russian athletes were allowed to compete, after these findings. Dreadful. A permanent scar, on the face of the Olympic committee. Shame on them. We all know what really happened, folks. You cannot fool us. We saw the findings. King Vlad tried, but could not fool the masses. This was a state sponsored system, that was found guilty of committing atrocities, against the world sports community, and is not being asked to pay much of a price for it, due to the severe weakness at the top of the IOC. 

The entire planet knows how guilty the Russians are. No amount of PR, and no amount of deflection on the part of the Olympic committee, will ever be able to remove the egg on it's face. Someone is purchasing a new villa at this moment, with the funds that were paid by Russia. It is an absolutely sickening development, that any of the Russian athletes were allowed to compete, after these findings. Dreadful. A permanent scar, on the face of the Olympic committee. Shame on them. We all know what really happened, folks. You cannot fool us. We saw the findings. King Vlad tried, but could not fool the masses.

2 hours ago, henry15 said:

The simple fact is, that the Thai voter has more trust in the army than in politicians to give them a brighter future, to solve the many economic, politicak and social problems. Even in Isaan its seems they start to realise that. Therefore the small margin between Yes and No.

 

And that says an awful lot about the scarcity of competent, reasonable, smart, talented, visionary, decent politicians in this country, at this point in time. Most Thais know it. Regardless of how much influence is used to change the face of it, most know there is simply no leader out there, who would be capable of a democratic transition. It is a very sad truth. So, it makes it that much easier for the little man to maintain his power:

"It adds that touch of legitimacy to the coup makers," Pavin Chachavalpongpun, an associate professor at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies of Kyoto University in Japan, said after the referendum results were announced. "It gives them the green light for the next few steps they want to take. They will say the opposition cannot say anything now." 

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/thailand-votes-by-public-referendum-to-make-its-government-even-less-accountable-to-the-people-a7177526.html

Of course, the same exact analysis could be applied to the US, except for the military rule component. But, certainly the lack of talent applies tenfold. 

It is quite obvious most Thai people did not have a clear understanding of what this Charter vote meant, the extraordinary and increased powers it bestowed upon the little man, and his incompetent government, and the way it postponed the possibility of any sort of democracy for years to come, with the ability of the army appointed senators to select the next PM. Thailand finds itself at a very difficult stage, and the economy will continue to decline no doubt, as a result of this vote. 

Having said that, was there a reasonable alternative? Is there anything even remotely resembling a competent leader, with the people's interest at heart, anywhere in the country right now? When will this person magically appear? What does the future hold for this place? I fear it will not be as bright a future as it could have been. Granted, the country was already into a precipitous slide, long before the little man took over. I predict that within 15 years, Thailand will be #6 within ASEAN, economically, behind the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam and Burma. And as far as tourism goes, it will continue to drop, revenue wise, while the Tourism Minister continues to brag about all of the Chinese tourists, who are spending very little money here. And the sad part, is that millions of jobs will be lost in the process. 

5 hours ago, Ronuk said:

Ao Manoa is superb.  There is even a very nice hotel there with pool.

It's kept away from tourist advertising. They don't want it ruined like tourists have ruined most of Thailands beach resorts. Never ever been asked for a passport or ID. You are free to drive and walk around as you please. Just be careful where you park. They do not like you parking or stopping anywhere other than in designated parking areas of which there are plenty. There are also beautiful beaches and numerous places to stay and eat outside of the Military Base. The military Base is only a very small part of Ao Manoa.

That entire region is one of the top regions in all of Thailand, and certainly the top region on the Gulf, for countless reasons. 

1 minute ago, ClutchClark said:

 

Mike, glad you have arived and are asking the hard questions of a trained TV investigator. 

Where did you get your training? CSI: Miami? 

 

Its interesting how many TVF members mistake a news article for the actual police report. 

 

The absence of investigative details in the Coconut does not mean they were not performed.

 

 

Perhaps you are correct. One can only hope a thorough and conclusive investigation took place. One can only hope enough regard for this foreigner, and his family was paid, and it resulted in the detectives being called in, and spending hours, and resources trying to make a conclusive determination.

Your guess is as good as mine. We just don't know the answer to this, do we? One can only guess. When one is directly exposed to shoddy work, over and over again, one tends to surmise. 

If there is anything we know with absolute certainty, it is the fact that the police labeling this a suicide means absolutely nothing. A cursory 10 minute examination of the room, and his fingerprints on the balcony was perhaps all that was required to come up with this expert opinion. I am not saying it was not a suicide, but it does appear unlikely. How many of us would jump to our deaths naked? And why wouldn't his prints be on the balcony if it was his room? Was his girlfriend interviewed? Was there any actual evidence to suggest suicide? A note? Any indications of distress? Eye witnesses? What else was taken into account to come up with this "scientific conclusion"? 

22 hours ago, digibum said:

 

The part that never gets enough attention in the normal Thai press.  Instead, it's all bluster about how the US can't tell Thailand what to do.  Thumbing it's nose at the US and siding up to China.  But behind the scenes, the government is sucking up because, well, Thailand is an export economy and Thailand needs the US.  

 

 

On par with the rice scheme in terms of totally misjudging the market.  

 

 

Correct. Thailand listens to, and obeys the US, for the most part, despite the rhetoric. Just look at the recent crackdowns on the sex industry. Does anyone really think that is coming from within? I would guess absolutely not. It is more than likely coming as a result of pressure from the US government, and it's band of NGO's. 

And all of this uncertainty is happening at a time when Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, and even Burma are going out of their way, and offering progressive policies (something that is virtually unheard of here), incentives, tax breaks, long term visas, relative stability, the right to own land (in some cases for individuals, or businesses that invest enough capital) and more. Thailand is quite literally being left in the dust by their neighbors, who are simply trying harder, and making sense. And applying practical policies, and reason. 

What percentage of the total GDP in Thailand is generated by the more than 7,000 Japanese companies doing business in Thailand, many of them whom are manufacturing here? If that was taken out of the equation, where would the economy be? Will those companies stay here, in the long term? For how long? With the continued political instability, periodic flooding, and the emergence of this countries neighbors, what impact will that have?

As an example:

Cambodia has one of the most open economies in what is a generally very open economic region. According to the Heritage Foundations Index of Economic Freedom which is complied annually Cambodia ranked 35th among 170 countries in 2003 in terms of economic freedom. This puts it on a par with Japan and well ahead of several of its neighbors (Malaysia, 72nd; Indonesia, 99th; Viet Nam, 135th; and Lao People’s Democratic Republic, 153rd). The Index noted the Cambodian government’s positive policies in terms of the level of fiscal burden, labor market restriction, regulatory barriers and trade policy.

http://www.business-in-asia.com/why_cambodia.htm

On August 4, 2016 at 1:38 PM, digibum said:

 

So true.  So true.  

 

And yes, there are been many premature reports of the death of tourism in Thailand but Thailand's two main strengths as a tourism destination were:

 

1.  It was cheap

2.  It was the most western-friendly destination in the region

 

Thailand isn't cheap anymore.  Especially in the tourist areas.  For some thing, like nightclubs and drinking, I'm not so sure you couldn't do the same cheaper back home.  600+ baht cover charges for dance clubs?  <deleted>?!  And when compared to Thailand's neighbors, the prices are ridiculous.  

 

And Thailand was never western-friendly.  It was simply the most western-friendly.  Some might argue that it's become increasingly hostile to foreigners recently.  

 

Regardless, Thailand's neighbors are throwing the doors open, learning English, and trying the best they can to accommodate westerners.  

 

Several years ago I went to Cambodia for a visa run and spent the night in the capital.  I walked around the city and I was spoken to more times in English, good English, by Cambodians than I would hear in a week in Thailand.  Little kids trying to sell me water saying stuff like, "Hey, it's hot out.  You better drink some water.  It's cold."  

 

Would a Thai even put in that much effort to sell you a bottle of water?  Even on Sukhumvit you would be lucky if they could be bothered to look up from their phones let alone speak English well enough to do anything more than quote you a price.  And gawd forbid you want two bottles and they have to break out the oversized calculator to tally it up.  

 

I know when I write stuff like this it sounds like I'm bashing Thais but I really do root for them.  But it's just so painful to watch them constantly screw themselves.  

 

Thailand's biggest problem is that they're not hungry.  They got handed the market for tourism, manufacturing, agriculture, and regional distribution by virtue of having avoided a war with the US, a crazy dictator who slaughtered an entire generation of educated people, and communism.  They never fought for it or earned it so now that other countries are taking it away from them they have no clue as to how to counter it.  They think simply being Thai entitles them to it.  

 

I don't know if they even have it in them to change course.  I mean, they're still blaming the tourists for not understanding Thai culture.  

 

 

All very good points. When you visit the Philippines, you realize Thailand was has never really adapted to Western tourism. It is like another planet for most people. The place is so foreign, the culture so remote and incomprehensible, for some it is just too much. Being in a place for a few weeks where few practice common sense or reason can be difficult. There are some great resorts here. And some nice temples and such, but the attractions just do not compare to an Anchor in Cambodia, Bagan in Burma, or some of the pristine mountain ranges and beaches in Vietnam, and the National Parks and interior ranges of Malaysia. Nor the exceptionally beautiful waters of Indonesia, once you get off the beaten track. On the Andaman side there are some nice beaches, and the water is gorgeous, but with the exception of the West coast of Phuket, few are able to take advantage of that. Most are exposed to only the Gulf, which is a fairly foul body of water, due to the horrific lack of environmental policy on the part of the government, and the continued allowance of drain off from the Ayutthaya area industrial estates, the Gulf coast waters lack the cleanliness and allure of so many other areas. 

So, what does Thailand offer? It is much like the LA area. It is coasting on it's long lost reputation, of the glory days of yesteryear. Most Westerners have more or less gotten that. That combined with the military rule, the lack of traffic and public safety policy, the complete lack of vision of the Tourism Ministry, the inability or unwillingness to tackle the continuing tourist problems with regard to the jet ski, boat rental, jewelry, false arrest, and bike damage scams, plus the lack of the clean up of the beaches and the water, Western tourism continues to decline, at an alarming rate, and it is being replaced by the zero baht Chinese tourists, who will unwittingly be eventually responsible for the collapse of the industry. 

And you are right. The Thais are just not trying too hard. Little effort is being made to improve things here for tourists. Prices keep climbing, even though there is not the kind of service to back it up, that justifies the price increases. There is no progressive policy here in regard to just about anything. And there are few in the government with the intelligence and the vision to even be aware of the real issues. 

Thailand will drop to #6 within ASEAN economically, and perhaps with regard to tourism, within 15 years, in my humble opinion. Behind the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Burma. They are trying harder, and all of them are more progressive. Thailand is not. The current economic policy here has been a disaster. 

To the world at large, being Thai means nothing. Some of us realize that there are some rather special qualities to being Thai. At least to those of us who have been here awhile, have an open mind, and know some really lovely Thai people. They do have alot of amazing qualities. But, for most people, being Thai is an illusion that exists only in the mind of a Thai person, who has been subject to a lifetime of nationalistic doctrination. 

Hey Donald, we know you do not take criticism well. We know you do not have the emotional development, nor the maturity to handle it. But, we have been telling you for a long time now that you are crashing, and your campaign is falling apart, due to you unwillingness to do some simple things, like suck up to Ryan, and some other party leaders. The refusal to do so just makes you look like too much of an outsider, and someone that is not only not electable, but potentially a dangerous rogue once elected. So, for once in your life can you accept advice, and do this for us? We are your sons and your campaign manager, after all. Can't you listen to us, just this one time? Besides, your wife, and every one of your advisors feels the same way. You do want to win this election right? So, change course, read this acceptance of the party leaders before the cameras, and try not to look too upset or too smug while doing so, ok? Not too much to ask, is it Don? 

Just another example of wasted resources, and misdirected policy. For the Thai authorities to be all of a sudden, so interested in cleaning the place up, there must be some outside influence at work. My guess it is the nefarious work of the US authorities, and their heinous NGO's. Who said the relationship has deteriorated. I believe that is strictly for public consumption. Obama can say he is not supporting a non democratic government, while the militaries still work together behind the scenes, and the promises of aid and future programs lure the little man into more terrible policy, and misdirected attempts at purity. 

Why would anyone worry about the passing of a referendum that takes away the rights of it's citizen, legitimizes a military government, gives them more power and ability to censure, arrest, and detain without question, and prolongs their tenure, while they sabotage a once great economy? Why would anyone be concerned about any of that?

As usual the little man continues to occupy space on another planet. 

1 hour ago, Yoram said:

The only people that will fondly remember Obama when he will fade into anonymity will be the

Muslims of this world, who couldn't believe their luck, and the several millions illegal immigrants, whom. thanks to Obama, has allowed them to illegally enter the US and stay there, as the man who championed their causes....

You need to do some fact checking. A recent interview with an ISIS member revealed that their operation is very minimal in the US, due to the great difficulties they have, when it comes to getting into the US legally. He talked about all of the sleeper cells in Holland, France, and Germany. Very few in the US. There are still only about 3 million Muslims in the US. One of the lowest percentages in the Western World. So, contrary to your belief, he has been very tough on Muslim immigration. And I am no fan of Obama. But, lies and distortions are just that. Get your news from somewhere other than FOX please. 

It does appear that this payment was legal. And it was revealed to the American people back in January:

Secretary Of State John Kerry Issued Press Release Announcing Settlement Of Iranian Government’s Claims, Beginning With $400 Million Payment. On January 17, Secretary of State John Kerry issued a press release explaining that Iran will be paid $400 million, to be followed by $1.3 billion more to settle “a long outstanding claim at the Iran-U.S. Claims Tribunal in the Hague”:

https://mediamatters.org/research/2016/08/04/myths-facts-400-million-payment-iran/212190