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jayboy
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Posts posted by jayboy
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So it seems to me that Tony Cartalucci must be doing something right since some of you are so desperate in your attempts to assassinate man's character without actually providing any facts to the contrary.
Why don't you simply pay more attention to his links, what he actually says based on his own sources and then try to take his argument apart by using your own sources and facts instead of posting incoherent rants against the man.
But it is his website and links that inform my opinion.I have provided examples of his crazed ideas.I know nothing about the man himself.
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Good to see Cartalucci getting some exposure. He is a rare bird in that he reports facts without allowing emotion to cloud his judgement, which combined with his long term familiarity with Thailand makes his articles well worth reading. All too often these international reporters, some clearly looking like disheveled junkies, seek short term relationships with workers in the "entertainment" industries, straight after arriving in country from other less hospitable places, and read way too much into the drunken pillow talk they hear.
We're talking about the same Tony Cartalucci right? This is conspiracy theorist Tony Cartalucci that writes for Alex Jones' Infowars? Does he report the 'facts' in the same way that Alex Jones does?
Yes, the very same.Still it's interesting that he is getting much exposure on the Thai political crisis, and is widely quoted - even though a quick survey of his views (on non Thai matters) demonstrates he is nuts.He is for example a passionate Assad supporter and believes 9/11 was an inside job etc etc.I know nothing about his background but it is curiously akin to the mindset of some Indian/Pakistani commentators - where zany conspiracy theory is a way of life.
The trouble is the Democrat/Suthep people have a conflicted view of foreign press coverage.They hate to have their darker side scrutinised by outsiders and yet at the same time crave foreign approval.Unfortunately every serious foreign news source, academic, think tank, ambassador tends to identify the obvious - namely the deeply undemocratic nature of the anti government opposition.This means that their few foreign supporters are given great prominence, not only the laughable Cartalucci but also the equally absurd American, Michael Yon.Personally I find Michael Yon more absurd than Cartalucci, because at least the latter has some command of the material.Yon is just plain ignorant.Yet both have huge support across the social media from the actiivist urban middle class - and shamefully for educated men, Abhisit and Korn have taken up Michael Yon as a credible source.
Finally, since invoking oddities like Cartalucci/Yon etc is ultimately self defeating we will inevitably hear more on the lines that Thailand is utterly inexplicable to foreigners, follows unique rules unknown to other countries and that you have to be a Thai (in practice often descendants of Southern Chinese coolies) to appreciate "Thainess".
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Actually, a poll around the last election showed that people preferred the Democrat policies.
It could be argued that "trust" is just as important as individual policies are in such opinion polls. Concealing the names of the parties behind the policies removes that crucial element, which has a big influence on voter's decisions. At the very least, these results demonstrate how much distrust has a role in Thai voter's decisions.
I agree. But many posters seem to think the Democrats lose because of their policies.
Most people in Thailand don't vote for policies, they just vote for the same families that they have always voted for, regardless of which party they are in.
Nonsense.People in Thailand are like people anywhere else.They vote for politicians and parties they believe will best serve the needs of their country, their communities, their families and themselves.
If the Democrats thought they had a snowball's chance in hell of winning the election on February 2nd there would be no talk of delay.
The answer to the Democrats problem is of course is to develop policies likely to appeal to the country at large (not just by copying Thaksin's policies as they did last time) and eject the failed leadership.But what they have actually done is to drift further to the reactionary right, and ditch the one person who understood what was needed to make the party re-electable (Alongkorn).
They deserve their coming failure.
...and you honestly believe that the people are of the opinion that PTP "will best serve the needs of their country, their communities, their families and themselves"...?
Wake up, and get yourself ready for the wake up call that up-country voters are ultimately set to deliver to this crooked regime.
The coming failure will be that of the Shinawatra dynasty....!!
You have failed to grasp the point.The issue is not whether PTP or any other party will measure up but rather the criteria all voters apply when making choices.
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Ummm ... did you read the comment about the poll where people preferred the Democrat policies?
If the Democrats supposedly copy Thaksin's policies, and people don't vote for them, does that mean that Thaksin's policies are no good?
No, it means the Thai people are not idiots and can see through political opportunism.
To stand a fighting chance the Democrats must become a genuinely national party, detoxify its reputation,geniunely embrace electoral democracy (ie not rely on military and judicial intervention), cut its links with feudal and military vested interests, build up a large membership base and of course eject discredited leaders.
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Actually, a poll around the last election showed that people preferred the Democrat policies.
It could be argued that "trust" is just as important as individual policies are in such opinion polls. Concealing the names of the parties behind the policies removes that crucial element, which has a big influence on voter's decisions. At the very least, these results demonstrate how much distrust has a role in Thai voter's decisions.
I agree. But many posters seem to think the Democrats lose because of their policies.
Most people in Thailand don't vote for policies, they just vote for the same families that they have always voted for, regardless of which party they are in.
Nonsense.People in Thailand are like people anywhere else.They vote for politicians and parties they believe will best serve the needs of their country, their communities, their families and themselves.
If the Democrats thought they had a snowball's chance in hell of winning the election on February 2nd there would be no talk of delay.
The answer to the Democrats problem is of course is to develop policies likely to appeal to the country at large (not just by copying Thaksin's policies as they did last time) and eject the failed leadership.But what they have actually done is to drift further to the reactionary right, and ditch the one person who understood what was needed to make the party re-electable (Alongkorn).
They deserve their coming failure.
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It makes more sense to follow democratic principles set in place under the current constitution to allow for an election to determine the next government.
Closing down international airports, blocking roads, creating chaos, violent acts etc... are not part of a democratic society.
Those actions break laws that were enacted to safeguard the principles of democracy, the people, from violence, dictators and the like.
Let the elections proceed and see what happens. Everyone must learn to live within the legal framework and not to take to the streets every time to force out an elected government. Spend more time on the campaign trail and touching the lives of the people in a real way if you want to win an election.
Everyone is talking about reform because of Suthep, the government have no interest in improving Thai society,, they only want power.
2 months and very little violence- only a skirmish between vocational students and police, Ramkhamhaeng students and the red shirts.
Suthep has galvanized the entire middle class across the country. He has the south as well.
This is all so beyond Yingluck, even Thaksin can't help her now.
And the Suthep mob/Democrats do not want power?
Yes the violence has been virtually non existent, thanks to the Yingluck administration which has shown discretion and patience.The whole community of nations have praised this spirit of humanity,
Unlike the Abhisit government which murdered unarmed civilians.
Yes the Bangkok middle class -largely Sino Thai - has hooked itself to the old unelected elites.Useful idiots in Lenin's famous phrase.But don't be under the illusion that there aren't many middle class Thais who while having no love for Thaksin are repelled by the Democrat/Suthep alliance.
If you think Yingluck (or rather the the people of Thailand who stand behind her) are finished, let's see what the next general election decides.
Bring it on.
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I wouldn't be surprised if Yingluck has told Thaksin she doesn't want to be PM again but will continue to pretend she will take the post again to boost votes for Pheua Thai.
They have no other pin-up poster boys or girls. Pongthep is cute but rather dull and Chaturon's voice is too reedy to attract the grassroots.
On the other hand the Democrats are brimming with intellect and personal magnetism- Apisit, Korn and Dr Surin come to mind.
I think I see what you mean but surely none of the Dems you mention really appeal to the grass roots.
Abhisit and Korn have considerable intellects.My feeling is that Surin is comparitively speaking a light weight - a very overrated bureaucrat type who bends with the breeze.
Korn and Surin do have real charisma but as noted above they don't have a very broad appeal.
Where I completely disagree with you is on Abhisit's personal magnetism.He doesn't have any - though the Chinese granny element would probably disagree.
The Dems' best hope was Alongkorn - but he just got the bum's rush.
Where I fully agree with you is on the PTP's poor offering of leaders.
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Probably you need to be a little more circumspect about referring to "empty rooms upstairs" when the context clearly indicates she will relinquish her party leadership position if PTP loses the election.Caretaker Prime Ministers Yingluck Shinawatra reiterated she will step down only if her party loses in the February 2 general election.
So if PTP loses the elections, she agrees not to be prime minister. If that isn't a generous offer
Clear again from that statement that Yingluck has some empty rooms upstairs .
Speaking of being circumspect about other people having empty rooms upstairs, she isn't the party leader.
Jarupong Ruangsuwan is.
Perhaps her context isn't as clear as some might have thought it was.
I didn't say she was and in fact my words were carefully chosen to convey she was among the leaders not the top one.
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Caretaker Prime Ministers Yingluck Shinawatra reiterated she will step down only if her party loses in the February 2 general election.
So if PTP loses the elections, she agrees not to be prime minister. If that isn't a generous offer
Clear again from that statement that Yingluck has some empty rooms upstairs .
Probably you need to be a little more circumspect about referring to "empty rooms upstairs" when the context clearly indicates she will relinquish her party leadership position if PTP loses the election.
Sent from my GT-I9300 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app
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Not too much in the speech really but put that together with his thugs blowing whistle at the boy whilst at school and it becomes something very different. Suthep clearly has no rules limitations or boundaries regarding his behaviour and the fact they he thinks children are legitimate "targets" for the pusuit of his dreams is appalling. This maniac wants to rule the country? Sociopathic behaviour from an intended leader seems wrong, I wonder how those dross bags blowing the whistles at t'pipe' would feel if a 100 adults did the same to their own kids? They'd be screaming blue murder, that's how they'd feel. Lunatics running the assylum?
It as been proved a LIE!!! Nobody whistle at her son at the school! The headmaster of the school made a written declaration! Only Yingluck propaganda!!!
Copy of the letter from the Headmaster:
Dear Parents,
In the past 24 hours there have been rumours circulating about politically motivated attempted security breaches at School. These rumours are untrue.
None the less, today we have reviewed security at School and will ensure that all staff are vigilant in order to ensure the children's safety.
I request that all parents support the School by ensuring that no politics are brought on Campus. Our School is a place for children to enjoy learning.
Thank you.
Michael Farley, Headmaster
You are mistaken and in any case the letter is about security not the harrassing of Yingluck's son.
I am very familiar with the position at Harrow with a friend on the governing body and with several friends as parents.There was no breach of security as the Headmaster's circular makers clear.However there was some whistling by a very small minority of parents at Yingluck's child.The Headmaster has made it clear this vulgar and unpleasant behaviour is unacceptable.This is not a particularly important issue particularly since a very small number of foolish parents were involved.
But please do not accuse people of lying or suggest Yingluck propaganda when you are unfamilar with the facts.
OK, so maybe a few parent whistled to her son... but why blaming K. Suthep for it?!!!
No reasonable person would, and you are probably right that some government supporters have made more of this incident than necessary.
Nevertheless the language used on all sides needs to be carefully watched.What's going on in Thailand is a political dispute (and one very similar to experiences in many other countries) but there's no need for either side to dehumanise their opponents.Both sides have been guilty of this.
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Not too much in the speech really but put that together with his thugs blowing whistle at the boy whilst at school and it becomes something very different. Suthep clearly has no rules limitations or boundaries regarding his behaviour and the fact they he thinks children are legitimate "targets" for the pusuit of his dreams is appalling. This maniac wants to rule the country? Sociopathic behaviour from an intended leader seems wrong, I wonder how those dross bags blowing the whistles at t'pipe' would feel if a 100 adults did the same to their own kids? They'd be screaming blue murder, that's how they'd feel. Lunatics running the assylum?
It as been proved a LIE!!! Nobody whistle at her son at the school! The headmaster of the school made a written declaration! Only Yingluck propaganda!!!
Copy of the letter from the Headmaster:
Dear Parents,
In the past 24 hours there have been rumours circulating about politically motivated attempted security breaches at School. These rumours are untrue.
None the less, today we have reviewed security at School and will ensure that all staff are vigilant in order to ensure the children's safety.
I request that all parents support the School by ensuring that no politics are brought on Campus. Our School is a place for children to enjoy learning.
Thank you.
Michael Farley, Headmaster
You are mistaken and in any case the letter is about security not the harrassing of Yingluck's son.
I am very familiar with the position at Harrow with a friend on the governing body and with several friends as parents.There was no breach of security as the Headmaster's circular makers clear.However there was some whistling by a very small minority of parents at Yingluck's child.The Headmaster has made it clear this vulgar and unpleasant behaviour is unacceptable.This is not a particularly important issue particularly since a very small number of foolish parents were involved.
But please do not accuse people of lying or suggest Yingluck propaganda when you are unfamilar with the facts.
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When I think back to my own student days in the late 60s/ early 70s (occupations over files, Angry Brigade, LSD etc) Khun Aum's infractions seem minor indeed. The Thammasat authorities will be laughed at in the West if they punish this student. The point made about struggling to find the rule that fits the 'crime' is all too apposite. As for those students signing the petition - better not put that on your CV if you apply for an overseas Ph.D. place.
Good point.This whole incident reflects badly not on the student involved but on Thammasat itself which once had a decent reputation for intellectual rigour and independent thought.
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What would you suggest Khuhken- this is a serious problem-- one that many of us have debated for twenty odd years in this country- how could Thailand become a fully functioning democracy- without coups, without street violence- with governments permitted to serve their terms-- without the perception of corruption (albeit unproved in most cases)--
Is it the system that needs changing- or is it the very culture from which the system derives- OR_ is it a case that the whole notion of liberal democracy as practiced (on paper) is incompatible with Thai culture?
If that is the case, what systemic changes would YOU initiate?
Yes it is a serious problem and the first step would be to take it seriously. No, I don't think that liberal democracy is incompatible with Thai culture. Local culture is not static, nor is it the same in all parts of the country.
What must change is the attitude towards the laws of the country which is not a cultural facet but why corruption is endemic in Thailand, as it is in many other developing nations. It needs to be tackled from both the top & bottom. At the top proper sharp-toothed bodies are needed to control (impossible to eliminate) corruption by politicians, bureaucrats and the police. The latter needs total reform together with the DSI.
From the bottom, the education system needs a wide cleansing with more schools to reduce classroom numbers, fair & effective exam results & no buying of places in desired schools & universities.
I could go on - land taxation, subsidies, bail system & more. It's not a short term job but an evolutionary task for an independent body.
I am geninely pleased to be able to agree with this.I would add some points
1.Justice system needs to be strengthened wirth genuine independence, free of political influence.Judges too often bear the impression of the last person who sat on them.Courts should be very clear where their role ends and role of legislators begins.
2.Education system needs to detach itself from the "wai khru" mentality as society itself becomes less deferential.Students should be encouraged to question and be suspicious of received wisdom.English and Mandarin languages to be given high priority.
3.Tax regime to be overhauled.End capital gains exemption on sales of listed equities.Bring in land tax on lines Korn suggested.
4.Local governors to be elected.One of the few Suthep suggestions I like.
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There will be no coup. Suthep's history. Now prepare for the elections in february. Tell the voters what you will do when you can be the government. Fight the other side with facts. More than enough to hurt them with: amnesty bill, rice scheme disaster, the two trillion borrowing plan, corruption. Start working. Go to the red shirt provinces too and talk WITH people.
I don't think that it will make any difference (i.e., the Democrats will still have little hope of winning the next election). While you raise some valid arguments, the issues aren't the ones that will 'sell' to PTP's power base in the provinces ... they're not issues that will get them to switch party allegiance. Politics in Thailand are in a 'tribal period' just as there are in the US now and they were in the UK in Thatcher's time: the electorate is highly polarised, people's political allegiance has become part of their personal identity, and the spit in the electorate is along high-level symbolic issues and national direction rather than on specific issues. The "colour coding" of politics in Thailand, the overlap with class and cultural differences, and related regional differences all exacerbate the fundamental 'tribalism' of the situation. The only way that another party has a chance is if it comes across as being genuinely interested in the views/needs of the rural population ... Raising issues about over-spending or a problematic rice scheme will not do the trick.
Politics will always be mainly tribal in nature.It's true in every country.Electorates tend to be made up of monolithic blocks and victory usually comes from persuading people on the margins of the major blocks, ie the floating voters.Many people might consider Suthep's agenda worth supporting but in an election (or referendum) could not bring themselves to vote for it.Equally there are many who see strong advantages in the PTP but are put off for various reasons - and would never vote for it.I believe social class and wealth are the key tribal determinants.Once in a while a politician comes along who transcends these tribal divisions.Tony Blair in 1997 was a classic example - someone who persuaded millions of well educated wealthier middle class people to vote for New Labour (who would have found voting for Kinnock impossible).Suthep obviously isn't such a catalytic figure since he divides rather than brings together.Of poor Abhisit (still rather like him) the less said the better.So it seems to me there is a huge potential in Thailand for a dynamic unifying politician, ideally one who doesn't rely on dark charisma.But no sign of him or her yet.
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Palakorn, with Prawit and Surin as outside bets. Pridiyathorn in as finance min problaby. But who really knows? The list is kept in a very secure place, a distant fortress guarded by Heimdall. Not even Sean Crispin or Andrew MacGregor Marshall who have vast access to this realm are aware of the full details...
Yes but Shawn Crispin has a deep inside source (as always), the details of which he is not in a position to reveal.
Yes, as a good a wishlist as Shawn has created, the fact is he's unwilling to reveal his "insider source" - as if that lends the whole thing an increased sense of credibility
Where's that vestibule of knowledge Not The Nation on this sordid affair?
I admire him and he has some excellent insights on Thai politics.The trouble is there is an awful lot of dross in there with the gems, and he is sometimes wildly wrong.Furthermore if a journalist has excellent sources and inside information, it's really not necessary for him/her to keep on referring to it.Still despite my reservations, Crispin is compulsory reading and is interesting and illuminating even when wrong.
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PDRC co-leader Thaworn Senneam also said;"He said the most important condition that would show the PDRC had achieved victory was that it now had somebody who would become the next premier. "Now we have someone [a candidate to be the next PM] who is sincere and not corrupt. [if] we cannot find someone who is [totally] innocent [in life], we can choose the most innocent."Who will the candidate be?The situation in Thailand is certainly dire and spiraling fast from one state of lawlessness to another by the minute.Who will save Thailand?
Palakorn, with Prawit and Surin as outside bets. Pridiyathorn in as finance min problaby. But who really knows? The list is kept in a very secure place, a distant fortress guarded by Heimdall. Not even Sean Crispin or Andrew MacGregor Marshall who have vast access to this realm are aware of the full details...
Yes but Shawn Crispin has a deep inside source (as always), the details of which he is not in a position to reveal.
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In the last election Pheua Thai got over 15 million votes whilst the Democrats received over 11 million.
And things have changed a lot in the last 2 years, not for the better as far as election results have shown for Pheua Thai.
Then there is no need for the Democrats to behave like frightened little rabbits at the prospect of an election in February.
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wrong again ilike ---
They forced out the government
They appointed a people's council and rewrote the constitution
Then they had elections ...
Please feel free to oversimplify (as I certainly have) but they did what Suthep is asking for, for very much the same reasons
This is a particularly stupid post even by his low standards.He neglects to mention that the Icelandic precedent was in the context of a financial debacle - and that there was never the slightest suggestion that popular democracy should be suspended - so no connection whatsoever with Suthep's vision.
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This guy is such a plank. :-)
My thoughts exactly..
He knows that an election will bring back the current government - but then it's what the people of Thailand want. Sooner or later they will have to accept that democracy means that who wins an election is the chosen person to lead, regardless of whether they agree or not.
All of those who scream vote buying.. don't be so naive to think that it's just one party doing it.. we got the same amount from all candidates last time
totster
The article by Chris Baker and Acharn Pasuk in the BP yesterday demolished the argument vote buying influences electoral results once and for all.From now on those who invoke vote buying as an argument against democracy in Thailand need to show evidence and demonstrate their case.Otherwise there is no need to bother with them.
How about some logic then..
If vote buying does not work why is it done
Remember Mr T his remarks those who did not vote for me won't be helped (threat to the South)
If stuff like this does not work... then why it is done.. I am sure they much rather keep they money themselves.
Read the article which answers your point.Sorry I can't link to it under forum rules but it can easily be found online.
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This guy is such a plank. :-)
My thoughts exactly..
He knows that an election will bring back the current government - but then it's what the people of Thailand want. Sooner or later they will have to accept that democracy means that who wins an election is the chosen person to lead, regardless of whether they agree or not.
All of those who scream vote buying.. don't be so naive to think that it's just one party doing it.. we got the same amount from all candidates last time
totster
The article by Chris Baker and Acharn Pasuk in the BP yesterday demolished the argument vote buying influences electoral results once and for all.From now on those who invoke vote buying as an argument against democracy in Thailand need to show evidence and demonstrate their case.Otherwise there is no need to bother with them.
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Yea because Cambodia was the only one that agreed to send anyone.
More international face down the drain.
Actually many foreign countries have praised the government for its proportionate and patient appoach to the protests.
Internationally I'm afraid it's not the government losing face but the opposition (with the single exception of Korn who has been notably guarded on the ludicrous Peoples Assembly)
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So if the government resigns, and is replaced by another "caretaker" government until the elections are held, who comprises that caretaker government? I just don't understand how this is supposed to work.
You are not alone.I have Thai friends who, though not marching today, are fully supportive of Khun Suthep and the Democrats' actions.Yet they are unsure and confused about the details of proposed next steps.I'm not entirely sure even the leaders have a clear road map.
In other words we are in completely uncharted territory and anyone who claims to know where Thailand is heading and how it will get there shouldn't be trusted.But these waters are also dangerous and Gramsci's famous comment is particularly pertinent.” When the old refuses to die, and the new is struggling to be born, monsters appear"
Hence Thaksin...... Well said Jayboy, I think its the most profound and though provoking comment I have ever read from you.
Thaksin, following the Gramsci line of thought, is certainly part of it...but not the end of it.Once revolutionary currents are flowing, the results are unpredictable.It may seem far fetched but it's not impossible in years to come the old elites (or those parts that have not already done so) might regret they didn't deal with Thaksin who is essentially wedded to the status quo.The next leader of the less privileged majority might be much more of a threat.
In circumstances like this one looks to men of calibre to rise to the occasion.I have been very critical of Abhisit but I recognise his quality.The latest indications (and I mean this morning) he has been backtracking on the question of participation in elections.That's a start but a long way to go still.
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So if the government resigns, and is replaced by another "caretaker" government until the elections are held, who comprises that caretaker government? I just don't understand how this is supposed to work.
You are not alone.I have Thai friends who, though not marching today, are fully supportive of Khun Suthep and the Democrats' actions.Yet they are unsure and confused about the details of proposed next steps.I'm not entirely sure even the leaders have a clear road map.
In other words we are in completely uncharted territory and anyone who claims to know where Thailand is heading and how it will get there shouldn't be trusted.But these waters are also dangerous and Gramsci's famous comment is particularly pertinent.” When the old refuses to die, and the new is struggling to be born, monsters appear"
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Because their leader told them to quit.
Good excuse for the coup.
The boss said they would all get their jobs back and some money.
Thinking about this makes it all the more funny.
So all the minority group has to do in Parliment to oust the majority ruling party in the UK is to simply resign?
No election needed is there for you in Thailand who wear yellow?
My oh my are those Republicans in America stupid then. They hate the President there and you say if they all simply resigned they could get a committee to run the nation and no election needed?
OH--that only works here you say.
OK--and the UN will not like it?
But you do not care as long as you are not hammered with trade sanctions like Myanmar was.
If that happens, you go to plan B and have an election and lose again.
If the Baht goes to 45, better for exports is it.
Besides, it is not as if you caould ever win an election with the current hate for your group is it.
Good plan BUT
What if the other side fights back or what if the PM refuses to leave office and simply calls for another election?
What?
You use the army again?
How old fashion of you.
Myanmar reborn to the east.
What utter and complete nonsense written by a poster who has no understanding whatsoever of Thai politics or indeed of the power of the Thaksin fascist dictatorship.
I thought much of his post very much to the point.But let's see how events pan out.
Democrat leader Abhisit proposes reconsideration of Feb 2 election
in Thailand News Headlines
Posted · Edited by jayboy
Well perhaps but Abhisit was friendly with Boris, and I understand did not know Cameron at school.In any event friendship only goes so far and I doubt whether Boris (who is a cunning and astute man) will be that keen to shmooze with a politician with Abhisit's antidemocratic credentials.
But your point is valid.In a normal world after several defeats the Democrat Party would have a serious rethink and consider how it could make itself more attractive to the Thai electorate.This in UK terms is exactly what Tony Blair did with the unelectable Labour Party and although his record is now tarnished by his foreign policy, it's worth remembering what an astounding political feat Blair achieved in detoxifying the Labour Party and turning it into an election winning machine.
This is exactly what Abhisit should have done.What he has actually done is to sow the seeds of his party's eclipse and his own mainstream political future.