tgw

well, it wasn't threatening to invade Ukraine either ! it even said it wouldn't !

Technically, NATO can remain at peace while one or several of its members conduct a "special peacekeeping operation" on the ground and the sky of Ukraine. BUT the problem is not that. The problem is to determine where it the operation should stop. Stopping at the pre-invasion controlled territories of Ukraine would amount to de-facto recognize the separatists and the Crimea landgrab. Going beyond that would be to give Russian people a reason to call for war. So Ukraine will have to do this alone to win back its territories. That's what Putin bets on. That calculation of his is correct. Where he grossly miscalculated, is that he didn't give Ukraine and the rest of the "free world" an acceptable concession he would be able to sell at home as a win. That's where I guess he has some kind of mental condition that prevented him from anticipating this. So we have a situation: - where Putin is with his back to the wall (i.e. increasingly desperate and dangerous). - Russia's word and assurances, signatures in international treaties is worthless - Ukraine can't accept any scenario Putin could sell as a win

Putin and likeminded successors.

my opinion is that the best chances of avoiding or at least postponing WW3 for a long time is to stop Putin right now. Giving him Donbass would be a win for Putin. Not only would this encourage Putin and his successors to pursue that kind of tactics (hello Transnistria, the rest of Georgia, Kasakstan, etc. ) but other countries will take note of the West's weakness and act accordingly (hello China in Taiwan, hello North Korea ...). So Putin needs to be stopped now, he must not get Donbass, not pass go, not collect 200$. Only the go to jail card is for him. And although I'm scared f*ckless, I increasingly think that the West should risk it.

64th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade The 64th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (Military Unit Number 51460) is a motorized infantry brigade of the Russian Ground Forces. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/64th_Guards_Motor_Rifle_Brigade Vlad's message to Russian troops : rape, murder civilians, pillage and get rewarded !

I live in Pattaya too. Price doesn't increase when I log in. it does increase too

maybe the roubles stopped pouring in because of the sanctions ...

I replied to that kind of argument earlier:

Mykolaiv Oblast governor reports shootout between Russian troops, Russia's proxies in neighboring region. According to Vitaliy Kim, shooting between the Russian military and forces of the Russian-occupied territories in Donbas took place in the Russian-occupied city of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, on April 16. https://kyivindependent.com/ good news. if they start shooting each other among themselves, it will be less work and spare many lives of Ukrainian soldiers.

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-17-22/h_c2789afaa290f5311aee5f14371ab176 Putin believes he’s winning the war, Austrian chancellor says “I think he is now in his own war logic. He thinks the war is necessary for security guarantees for the Russian Federation. He doesn’t trust the international community. He blames the Ukrainians for genocide in the Donbas region. So, um, well, he is now in his world, but I think he knows what is going on now in Ukraine," Nehammer said. so that confirms that Putin has some kind of a mental condition. "not batting off a full wicket" would some British friends say.

I am really in no position to recommend anything. But I remember this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ilovaisk https://www.newsweek.com/2014/11/14/battle-ilovaisk-details-massacre-inside-rebel-held-eastern-ukraine-282003.html https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49426724 also known as the "massacre of Ilovaisk" Russians can be 100% trusted to not respect any agreements.

Russia is already in breach of the Geneva conventions of which it is a signatory: - attacks on civilians - attacks on civilian infrastructures - forced deportations - torture - executions - looting / pillage - rapes - banned ammunitions: cluster, vacuum, thermobaric the list of breaches by Russian troops is long, very long

https://kyivindependent.com/ (live feed) Russians making witnesses disappear ?

very good. if they could depose that joke of a Patriarch on grounds of immorality would be even better. https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/15278/orthodox-priests-call-for-patriarchs-to-depose-kirill "The petition accuses Kirill of heresy in preaching the “Russian world” ideology, and of moral crimes in blessing Russian troops and their invasion of Ukraine. " Heresy. even better. the patriarch is former KGB : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriarch_Kirill_of_Moscow most of Russia's power structures are rotten.

it really depends on the rules and their enforcement. some rules are really stupid. and others are stupidly enforced.

which controls only a portion of all the passports in the world, and regulates only what UK officers do within the borders of UK.

this is definitely wrong.

US State Department: "Nothing will dissuade" Biden administration from supporting Ukraine https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-15-22/index.html such a strong statement is certainly reassuring, I trust they know what they are doing, and I feel relieved for Ukraine. Putin must be stopped, it's the right call.

Russia warned US of "unpredictable consequences" if weapons shipments to Ukraine continue, sources say https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-15-22/index.html I'm scared Putin wants to play with the red button. I hope the strategists have a good plan in case crazy Vlad nukes Ukraine. But all scenarios look terrible in that event.

nope, there were many. starting with the Kuril Islands, Finland borders (inkl. Karelia), Chinese borders, Baltic States borders, the Barents Sea are the major ones concerning Russia itself. The Soviet Union had many more territorial disputes.

yup. guaranteeing the security of Russia might demonstrate to Russian people that there is a distinction between the two.

it's not a perfect world. even in 1990, there were plenty of Russian territories with a disputed status. security of Russia is not only the excuse used by Putin for his war, but also a major concern for many Russians, especially those in the military or in the power structure. the West must leave no ambiguity about the conflict posing no potential existential threat to Russia's security and territorial integrity.

It might convince the officer in charge of pushing the button to not do it.

no, but I think the West should give Russia all assurances and guarantees that its 1990 borders are totally safe. and maybe also the assurance that the rights of Russian minorities will be respected in areas that were de-facto colonized / russified by the Soviets.

okay, so let's recapitulate, NATO is not in Ukraine, which means that so far Russia has lost 20.000 soldiers (how many wounded?) , 750 tanks, 150 planes, 140 helos, 2000 apv, 1500 trucks, and now a capital ship, all while fighting against NOT NATO.