Thailand signs four agreements with China on development of high speed train project

[Guest]

I have read down and see from the first 10 or more comments that the real culture in Thai Visa is alive and well, i subscribe to the forum but do not read much and comment even less but i was so pissed with all the negative posts i could not help myself, not one positive thing for a great project, you should all be ashamed of yourselves. on this forum there is rarely a positive outlook but come on you lot. this post may not be shown and i may get barred for a time for writing it but i am sick and tired of all the negatives on the blog.

Go Thailand i think the Rail project is a fabulous project and support it all the way, it will make travelling to the capital much easier for Isaan people and hopefully take some traffic off the 2 highway, i for one would use it regularly coming from Khon Kaen to bkk.

[Rancid]

With this project I guess countries have the option to join or not, if it turns out successful then not joining would be seen as a monumental blunder, that aside investing in infrastructure is better than investing in arms, as at least there are benefits.

 

Certain countries are diametrically opposed to the project as believe not in their national interest or worrying about loss of power/influence. As such their media heavily pushes the meme about how terrible it all is. In the end time will tell...

[Srikcir]

7 minutes ago, Rancid said:

With this project I guess countries have the option to join or not

Although in the case of Thailand, it has been the option of an unelected government using Article 44 to join this project. The Thai people themselves have no option.

[Guest]

15 minutes ago, Rancid said:

With this project I guess countries have the option to join or not, if it turns out successful then not joining would be seen as a monumental blunder, that aside investing in infrastructure is better than investing in arms, as at least there are benefits.

 

Certain countries are diametrically opposed to the project as believe not in their national interest or worrying about loss of power/influence. As such their media heavily pushes the meme about how terrible it all is. In the end time will tell...

other countries can make up their own mind of the pro's or con's, but infrastructure spending in the right area's seem like a good idea and i can not think of a down side to the project, look at what this type of project has done for other nations, nothing but good.

what countries are opposed and for what reasons?.

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, jewell49 said:

i can not think of a down side to the project

One might speculate some downsides, several of which are potential results of Prayut invoking Article 44 to expedite the project (*):

• Potential increase to Thailand’s current trade deficit with China
• No environmental impact review *
• No checks & balances on potential corruption/collusion between government and contractors *
• No infrastructure to support adjacent rail property commercialization
• No final cost estimate of project *
• No economic viability analysis (will cargo & passenger revenues service loan debt) *
• Thailand 100% responsible for cost overruns and loan default.
• Route illegally encroaches on designated farmland (Sor Por Kor)
• Chinese engineers and architects may be exempt from damages caused by the Chinese during the project implementation. *
• Any "upstream" rail disruption in other participating nations through which the project passes through can impact economic viability of project in Thailand.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 9, 2017 by Srikcir
none

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 9/7/2017 at 0:15 AM, Chris Lawrence said:

"Chinese debt is so bad that even Chinese bankers now say it's a 'bubble'" https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-debt-bad-even-chinese-200000552.html

 

So where is the money coming from? Thai banks may handle some but I suspect overseas money will flow in.

 

So they signed an agreement to build a railway but investigations are still in process? Environment Impact works? Thais may be pushing the cart with Chinese donkey siting in the cart.

 

Thanks for sharing. I am also surprised we don't hear more about the grey rhinos like Anbang, Wanda and HNA in mainstream media. Even too big to fail will eventually have to crack.

[ExpatOilWorker]

On 9/7/2017 at 8:33 AM, AhFarangJa said:

A Glimpse into the future............

 

 

Will the train driver be Spanish?

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Srikcir said:

One might speculate some downsides, several of which are potential results of Prayut invoking Article 44 to expedite the project (*):

• Potential increase to Thailand’s current trade deficit with China
• No environmental impact review *
• No checks & balances on potential corruption/collusion between government and contractors *
• No infrastructure to support adjacent rail property commercialization
• No final cost estimate of project *
• No economic viability analysis (will cargo & passenger revenues service loan debt) *
• Thailand 100% responsible for cost overruns and loan default.
• Route illegally encroaches on designated farmland (Sor Por Kor)
• Chinese engineers and architects may be exempt from damages caused by the Chinese during the project implementation. *
• Any "upstream" rail disruption in other participating nations through which the project passes through can impact economic viability of project in Thailand.

 

 

 

 

 

Potential !! increase in deficit with china?? please

how do you know there is no impact study and mainly along an existing route

Corruption checks how do you know and where in the world is there no coruption

Infrastructure where needed comes after!!

There is never a final cost on a project this size !!!

Again how the hell do you know there is no viability study of course there would have been!!!

Again how do you know Thailand is responsible for all cost over runs, the contractors would be liable.

Illegal encroachment, really??? where in the world does the government not aquire land for infrastructure projects.

Engineers MAY be exempt PLEASE.

The Thailand project finishes in Nong Khai how would that impact on Thailand GET REAL

[Ricardo]

1 hour ago, jewell49 said:

<snip for brevity>

The Thailand project finishes in Nong Khai how would that impact on Thailand GET REAL

 

But the economic-success of the project depends largely on freight from/to further North than Nong Khai, you don't really believe a few medium-speed passenger-trains to Isaan would justify this major investment, do you ?

 

If the domestic-passenger traffic alone justified it, then the Thai high-speed passenger-only network would already have been built, it hasn't been.

 

If the hoped-for volumes of freight-traffic from China to the Thai-ports fail to materialise as-anticipated, then the project could lose a lot of money, which would fall upon Thailand because China is now planned to be only a lender & constructor, not an equity-partner.

 

If the interest-rate on the debt, whether Thai-bonds or loans from Chinese-banks, is set too high then the project would still be a financial-disaster, despite being a success for Chinese exporters.  In other recent threads posters have pointed to the Channel-Tunnel, as a possible similar example.

 

We're not nay-saying the project, as some seem to believe, merely pointing out that the numbers need to add-up, in Thailand's own interests.

 

Lastly I'd point out that this (Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima) section is only the first one, there remain the line down to the Eastern Seaboard and the section onwards to the Lao border.  There's nothing to say, that the same financial-backing or deals will be available, for those two sections, which are also essential to the success of the project.

Edited September 9, 2017 by Ricardo

[Srikcir]

1 hour ago, jewell49 said:

Potential !! increase in deficit with china?? please

how do you know there is no impact study and mainly along an existing route

Corruption checks how do you know and where in the world is there no coruption

Infrastructure where needed comes after!!

There is never a final cost on a project this size !!!

Again how the hell do you know there is no viability study of course there would have been!!!

Again how do you know Thailand is responsible for all cost over runs, the contractors would be liable.

Illegal encroachment, really??? where in the world does the government not aquire land for infrastructure projects.

Engineers MAY be exempt PLEASE.

The Thailand project finishes in Nong Khai how would that impact on Thailand GET REAL

All my commentary is based on TV republished articles since 2015 regarding the Chinese dual rail project. As an example I offer the following:

• "ACADEMICS HAVE cautioned that the Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima high-speed train project could end in bankruptcy and fail to develop sought-after technology in Thailand."
• "Sompong Sirisoponsilp, former director of the Transportation Institute at Chulalongkorn University, said the government had not thoroughly considered the project, which will result in a total economic failure and a loss of other benefits that the government expected." 
• "Nuannoi Trirat, an economist and director of the Institute of Asian Studies at Chulalongkorn University, said the current project in Nakhon Ratchasima was likely to end in bankruptcy as there were limited passengers and many transportation options."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30318836

By invoking Article 44 (*) Prayut bypasses all those REAL concerns.

 

[Ossy]

1 hour ago, Ricardo said:

If the hoped-for volumes of freight-traffic from China to the Thai-ports fail to materialise as-anticipated

Forgive my appearing 'higgorant', Ricardo, after your excellent post. Is this 'hoped for' traffic for onward shipping to western markets, i.e. would it, otherwise, have had to sail from its Chinese port, via Malaysia and across the Indian Ocean to wherever?

How many shipping days would the cross-land train trip save? 2 , at most, I'd have thought. I really do wonder at the attractiveness of this option, espec. when consignments 'fall into the hands' of the Bangkok Dock Company for onward shipping . . . aghhh! If I was manufacturing in and exporting from China, I reckon I'd opt for the 'one good ship and true' and to hell with the riskier, 'high-speed' option.

[Ricardo]

48 minutes ago, Ossy said:

Forgive my appearing 'higgorant', Ricardo, after your excellent post. Is this 'hoped for' traffic for onward shipping to western markets, i.e. would it, otherwise, have had to sail from its Chinese port, via Malaysia and across the Indian Ocean to wherever?

How many shipping days would the cross-land train trip save? 2 , at most, I'd have thought. I really do wonder at the attractiveness of this option, espec. when consignments 'fall into the hands' of the Bangkok Dock Company for onward shipping . . . aghhh! If I was manufacturing in and exporting from China, I reckon I'd opt for the 'one good ship and true' and to hell with the riskier, 'high-speed' option.

 

Please do keep asking, there's nothing wrong with questioning things, so long as there are good answers,that's how we all learn from these threads.  I make no claim to specialist inside-knowledge, I'm just an interested bystander too, trying to make sense of it all !

 

Looking back 10-15 years, to the heyday of the global-boom and Chinese-exports and the revival of the imperial century-old China-Singapore railway-project, the Chinese ports were struggling to cope with the volume of imports & exports, so at-that-point a line from Southern-China to Laem Chabang (then already one of the top-20 container-ports in the World !) made obvious sense.

 

And  'Yes'  the ultimate destination of most of this traffic is/was North-America or Europe. Hence the modern direct-freight trains now running from China to Europe & the UK, for example, just one more option !  Hence also this project, for a line down to the Thai ports, also the growing industrial-areas of the Eastern Seaboard, as well as various other rail-options, to Vietnam and Burma, for example.

 

While only saving a few days (I think two is probably too low) in-transit, this project also avoids the Chinese-ports themselves, bypassing any bottlenecks there and so gaining an extra transport-option for Chinese exporters.  It also avoids Bangkok, that seems IMO to be a Thai add-on, whether for domestic political-consumption or real economic-gain I wouldn't like to say.

 

There is then also the looming-problem that the Malacca Straits are close to capacity, hence regular Chinese efforts to revive the Kra Canal idea or a port/rail/portlink across Southern-Thailand, but now last-months' signing of a  port/rail/port link across Malaysia may have solved that, or might just be one more alternative.  I can't believe that China's long-term planners would, or ever should, put many of their eggs into the one basket !  They're canny very-long-term thinkers !

 

Having made the basic strategic-decision about this route, one then seeks to maximise the returns from the investment, and considers other lesser sources of revenue.  One poster (on another thread) suggested the line would improve-speed/lower-cost on import/exports to Laos, for example.  And Thailand would also wish to try to ship agricultural-produce or cheap manufactured-goods up to China. 

 

Then there's the possibility to run freight into the new (under construction now) freight-yard just North of Bangkok, and transfer onto the SRT meter-gauge network for onward shipment to other parts of Thailand, their track-doubling/capacity-increasing work is gradually advancing !  There will also eventually be a meter-gauge double-track slow-speed option all-the-way to Padang Besar & Malaysia & Singapore, once the Southern-line is fully upgraded.

 

Lastly passengers, well Thais may wonder why their government  (any of their governments  ...  this is a long-term project supported by all parties)  should borrow to invest public-money in a new railway-line to help mainly China. Well if one can sell the idea as being 'high-speed'  (it's not !)  to benefit passengers to Isaan, then that has real domestic political-appeal, doesn't it ?  Especially if isaan is one of your two main areas-of-support.

 

Looking at Chinese articles about this project, and it's worth googling, you'd be forgiven for thinking that this is all about high-speed tourists from China, but how many of those really want to go to Laem Chabang & Maptaphut & Sattahip ?  China has to justify this project to its own people, too.   

 

The OP is clearly an article which shows the Chinese view of the new line, it attempts to sell the idea of Thailand as the Hub of its future S.E.Asian trade, whereas there may also be an element of an economic Trojan-Horse about the whole thing ?  Who knows ?

Edited September 9, 2017 by Ricardo

[Guest]

14 hours ago, Ricardo said:

 

Please do keep asking, there's nothing wrong with questioning things, so long as there are good answers,that's how we all learn from these threads.  I make no claim to specialist inside-knowledge, I'm just an interested bystander too, trying to make sense of it all !

 

Looking back 10-15 years, to the heyday of the global-boom and Chinese-exports and the revival of the imperial century-old China-Singapore railway-project, the Chinese ports were struggling to cope with the volume of imports & exports, so at-that-point a line from Southern-China to Laem Chabang (then already one of the top-20 container-ports in the World !) made obvious sense.

 

And  'Yes'  the ultimate destination of most of this traffic is/was North-America or Europe. Hence the modern direct-freight trains now running from China to Europe & the UK, for example, just one more option !  Hence also this project, for a line down to the Thai ports, also the growing industrial-areas of the Eastern Seaboard, as well as various other rail-options, to Vietnam and Burma, for example.

 

While only saving a few days (I think two is probably too low) in-transit, this project also avoids the Chinese-ports themselves, bypassing any bottlenecks there and so gaining an extra transport-option for Chinese exporters.  It also avoids Bangkok, that seems IMO to be a Thai add-on, whether for domestic political-consumption or real economic-gain I wouldn't like to say.

 

There is then also the looming-problem that the Malacca Straits are close to capacity, hence regular Chinese efforts to revive the Kra Canal idea or a port/rail/portlink across Southern-Thailand, but now last-months' signing of a  port/rail/port link across Malaysia may have solved that, or might just be one more alternative.  I can't believe that China's long-term planners would, or ever should, put many of their eggs into the one basket !  They're canny very-long-term thinkers !

 

Having made the basic strategic-decision about this route, one then seeks to maximise the returns from the investment, and considers other lesser sources of revenue.  One poster (on another thread) suggested the line would improve-speed/lower-cost on import/exports to Laos, for example.  And Thailand would also wish to try to ship agricultural-produce or cheap manufactured-goods up to China. 

 

Then there's the possibility to run freight into the new (under construction now) freight-yard just North of Bangkok, and transfer onto the SRT meter-gauge network for onward shipment to other parts of Thailand, their track-doubling/capacity-increasing work is gradually advancing !  There will also eventually be a meter-gauge double-track slow-speed option all-the-way to Padang Besar & Malaysia & Singapore, once the Southern-line is fully upgraded.

 

Lastly passengers, well Thais may wonder why their government  (any of their governments  ...  this is a long-term project supported by all parties)  should borrow to invest public-money in a new railway-line to help mainly China. Well if one can sell the idea as being 'high-speed'  (it's not !)  to benefit passengers to Isaan, then that has real domestic political-appeal, doesn't it ?  Especially if isaan is one of your two main areas-of-support.

 

Looking at Chinese articles about this project, and it's worth googling, you'd be forgiven for thinking that this is all about high-speed tourists from China, but how many of those really want to go to Laem Chabang & Maptaphut & Sattahip ?  China has to justify this project to its own people, too.   

 

The OP is clearly an article which shows the Chinese view of the new line, it attempts to sell the idea of Thailand as the Hub of its future S.E.Asian trade, whereas there may also be an element of an economic Trojan-Horse about the whole thing ?  Who knows ?

Great post, i am not suggesting that the train to Nong Khai would be viable for Thailand traffic only but if other governments between Thailand and China commit to the project then it is in their best interests to see that all works as well as the prospectus, and Thailand has no responsibility for any costs above or below it's own borders. And freight is the prime mover of this entire project, however the side benefit for Issan is the Passenger and freight movement between Nong Khai to Bkk. for anyone who has traveled highway 2 a small reduction in road traffic in particular lorries, as there are an enormous amount of freight moved on this road, would be of great importance especially by year 2021.

[Guest]

17 hours ago, Srikcir said:

All my commentary is based on TV republished articles since 2015 regarding the Chinese dual rail project. As an example I offer the following:

• "ACADEMICS HAVE cautioned that the Bangkok-Nakhon Ratchasima high-speed train project could end in bankruptcy and fail to develop sought-after technology in Thailand."
• "Sompong Sirisoponsilp, former director of the Transportation Institute at Chulalongkorn University, said the government had not thoroughly considered the project, which will result in a total economic failure and a loss of other benefits that the government expected." 
• "Nuannoi Trirat, an economist and director of the Institute of Asian Studies at Chulalongkorn University, said the current project in Nakhon Ratchasima was likely to end in bankruptcy as there were limited passengers and many transportation options."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/news/national/30318836

By invoking Article 44 (*) Prayut bypasses all those REAL concerns.

 

Of course that project standing alone is not viable even the farmer in the back of Kalasin could see that, we do not need an academic to tell us that, the vision for the entire project from China to Singapore? or Bkk makes sense but even a thousand mile walk begins with the first step.

[Ricardo]

1 minute ago, jewell49 said:

Great post, i am not suggesting that the train to Nong Khai would be viable for Thailand traffic only but if other governments between Thailand and China commit to the project then it is in their best interests to see that all works as well as the prospectus, and Thailand has no responsibility for any costs above or below it's own borders. And freight is the prime mover of this entire project, however the side benefit for Issan is the Passenger and freight movement between Nong Khai to Bkk. for anyone who has traveled highway 2 a small reduction in road traffic in particular lorries, as there are an enormous amount of freight moved on this road, would be of great importance especially by year 2021.

 

Laos & China already have a similar deal, although the financing is slightly-different, and construction is now under-way, as reported in other threads.  You can also google China/Laos/railway.

 

Of course the Thai truckers may not welcome the new competition ?    But I agree absolutely about the potential-benefits of getting container-freight off the roads, and onto rail instead  ...  the Ministry of Transport has supposedly been working towards this nationally, part of the justification for the 20-year SRT track-doubling project.

 

One more potentially-interesting related-topic, which hasn't yet been discussed much because we simply don't know yet, is how they will split the revenue between China/Laos/Thailand, on a container moving from (say) Yunnan to Laem Chabang.  That too will be absolutely key to whether the Thai-section will be profitable or loss-making overall.

 

That's not to be negative, just to say that it is very important, and no details have yet emerged/been-settled AFAIK ?  Unless perhaps someone else has seen anything about it ?