Thailand's popular prime minister slipping in polls

Critics target his drug policy, leadership style

BANGKOK, Thailand -- Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra makes no secret of the place in history he wants. It is to succeed Malaysia's Mahathir Mohamad and Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew as the voice of Southeast Asia and make Thailand the symbol of the region's robust economic revival.

To push his agenda, he has spent heavily to create income and jobs, and he has seen Thailand achieve one of Asia's fastest economic expansions.

He has introduced virtually free health care, encouraged easy consumer credit and provided the nation's 70,000 villages with a system of low-interest loans.

Viewed as a champion of the poor, the 54-year-old telecommunications billionaire has enjoyed popularity ratings above 70 percent throughout much of his three-plus years in office.

But last month, Thaksin's popularity dropped to 59 percent amid an array of challenges:

·An insurgency in the Muslim-dominated south has turned violent over the past few months.

·A government crackdown on drugs has left 2,500 people dead and raised questions about human rights.

·Trade-union protests over his attempt to privatize the state electricity enterprise challenge plans for free-market reforms.

·Many have concerns about corruption and nepotism, his authoritarian style, and his commitment to democracy.

Still, political analysts say, Thaksin is likely to become the first elected prime minister in Thai history to complete a full four-year term without being unseated by a coup or a no-confidence vote in Parliament. Elections are next year.

Thaksin, a former policeman, dismisses criticism of his iron-handed governance.

"Decisiveness isn't dictatorship," he says.

"Thaksin came into office at the end of the Asian economic crisis, when there was still a lot of anti-IMF (International Monetary Fund) sentiment," said Somchai Pakapaswiwat, a political scientist at Thammasat University. "He's good at appealing to Thais' nationalistic pride. He has interjected a new dimension in Thai politics by marketing policy instead of personality."

Many of those policies are controversial.

His war on drugs resulted in complaints from human rights groups that police were turned loose to kill dealers and users at will. Thaksin defended his police and said the high death rate was the result of drug lords killing one another.

He pointed out that drug use in Thailand dropped over the past year.

When the U.S. State Department joined critics of the crackdown in its annual human rights report, Thaksin called the United States a "useless friend," implying perhaps that Washington should be more grateful for his close cooperation in the war on terrorism and for dispatching 450 troops to Iraq. (His generals say the troops will be withdrawn if they are attacked.)

The biggest challenge Thaksin faces, Western diplomats said, is in the southern provinces, where the prime minister has sent 3,000 troops, declared martial law, and allocated more than $300 million for security measures and regional development projects.

Continued unrest there could threaten Thailand's $10 billion tourist industry.

"If Thaksin can calm the region, he'll win the election hands down next year," one Western diplomat said. "But if the situation worsens, Thailand could pay a big price in terms of the economy, foreign investment and tourism."

--Los Angeles Times 2004-05-09

An interesting read covering the decline of popularity and some of the reasons why.

Panic in Bangkok by Satya Sagar

Chuan Mk II made full term before getting rolled by TRT.

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