Word Association (2024)

[ilostmypassword]

1 minute ago, craigt3365 said:

Thank you.

I don't think thanks are enough. For my efforts, I should get a medal.

[craigt3365]

3 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

I don't think thanks are enough. For my efforts, I should get a medal.

Morch is very level headed.  Maybe he should get a medal.

[Morch]

10 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

I don't think thanks are enough. For my efforts, I should get a medal.

 

Well, you're doing a great job demonstrating how "focused" you are, if not "on the issues presented here". Less so when it comes to "derailing the conversation".

 

[Morch]

Just now, ilostmypassword said:

I suppose anything's possible. But given that Hariri's family has business ties to the kingdom, the Crown Prince has shown no reluctance to go after anyone who doesn't go along with him, and that Lebanese intelligence had no such reports, the most likely explanation is that Saudi Arabia created a lie. But I guess it's a pardonable one since Lebanon has declared war on the Saudis albeit it in a very recondite way.

 

Not claiming that there was an actual assassination attempt, but basing the rejection on what Lebanese Intelligence says is, again, not a very sound foundation for an argument. From what was reported on the supposed assassination plot/attempt, the information originated from an undisclosed Western intelligence agency. That's not saying a whole lot either, without further details. There was one specific incident mentioned, which mentioned an attempt to jam the communication and navigation equipment on Hariri's convoy, with footprints allegedly pointing at Iran. Again, nothing substantiated, so hard to tell.

 

The possibility of Hariri's resignation being tied with the current Saudi Arabian purge was mentioned earlier. It would require further details on who else was detained, though.

[metisdead]

Off topic deflection posts and replies have been removed. 

[ilostmypassword]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

 

Not claiming that there was an actual assassination attempt, but basing the rejection on what Lebanese Intelligence says is, again, not a very sound foundation for an argument. From what was reported on the supposed assassination plot/attempt, the information originated from an undisclosed Western intelligence agency. That's not saying a whole lot either, without further details. There was one specific incident mentioned, which mentioned an attempt to jam the communication and navigation equipment on Hariri's convoy, with footprints allegedly pointing at Iran. Again, nothing substantiated, so hard to tell.

 

The possibility of Hariri's resignation being tied with the current Saudi Arabian purge was mentioned earlier. It would require further details on who else was detained, though.

I cannot see any upside for Iran if Hariri were to be assassinated  It seems less unlikely that some intelligence agency has manufactured this evidence because the current arrangement in Lebanon clearly favors Hesbollah. The only parties who would benefit from this would be opponents of Hesbollah, Iran, and Syria.  And given that Saudi Arabia has made a claim that Lebanon has declared war on them - a claim so ludicrous and inept that it's worthy of Kim Jong Un, the odds strongly favor them being at the bottom of this. with possible assistance from some foreign intelligence agency.

[Morch]

11 minutes ago, ilostmypassword said:

I cannot see any upside for Iran if Hariri were to be assassinated  It seems less unlikely that some intelligence agency has manufactured this evidence because the current arrangement in Lebanon clearly favors Hesbollah. The only parties who would benefit from this would be opponents of Hesbollah, Iran, and Syria.  And given that Saudi Arabia has made a claim that Lebanon has declared war on them - a claim so ludicrous and inept that it's worthy of Kim Jong Un, the odds strongly favor them being at the bottom of this. with possible assistance from some foreign intelligence agency.

 

Hariri is/was useful as long as he plays along and keeps the status quo. The status quo, though, effectively favors Hezbollah (and by extension, Iranian interests). If Hariri was to develop a spine, or be pressured by Saudi Arabia into asserting his positions, rather than giving up ground for Hezbollah - then his value as a fig leaf would be diminished. Under such circumstances, removing Hariri would have brought back the previous political deadlock (which allowed Hezbollah more freedom ), while at the same time sending a message to possible replacements. 

 

Not saying that there was an attempt on Hariri's life, just that it is not an set-in-stone that Iran wouldn't have gained from such a move.

 

Your "analysis" relies on conditions being stable, which is not the hallmark of Lebanese politics at the best of times. As the hot issues contested (and unresolved) just prior to Hariri's resignation directly touched problem areas between factions and their respective patrons - perhaps things were not as stable as some seem to imagine.

 

I've commented on the Saudi claim regarding Lebanon supposedly declaring a war on the parallel topic. To cap, it may sound ludicrous, but goes to the issue of Hezbollah's status and how are its actions to be addressed.

 

Of course, it is entirely possible that Saudi Arabia is fully behind the whole thing. Nothing posted by me contradicts this possibility. The point made is that this assertion is less clear cut then assumed, and that the information presented to support this is partial and not always accurate.