Would You Invest In Thai Business Or Real Estate Now?

[xbusman]

Actually rogerinthai, you hitting the nail on the head but it is much worse than that. Public sector and private sector make their money from the generation of GDP as you say. If you take away exports, that leaves tourism and ..... What? You cannot create wealth by massaging each other or doing each others hair. The way I always say it is that you have to take "dirt" and make something that someone wants. When we import iron ore and make a Vigo, there is wealth created all along the line as long as you can sell the vigo. That wealth disburses and pays for the massages, the hair coloring, the roads. Rice is a good example of creating wealth from "dirt". I dont really mean dirt but I hope everyone gets the idea.

When you lose your customer for vigos, well then, you lose the entire underpinning of your capital generation. There are good reasons for the hysteria being shown in these radical moves by the BOT and other parts of the government. Like a huge ship that is slow to start and slow to stop, we are seeing the early indications in the Thai economy that there are surely ice bergs ahead. They may be possible to navigate but we are firmly in uncharted waters for the most part.

[rogerinthai]

I think a major factor here is Japan - Thailand's biggest trading partner, by far. If it is possible to see what major Japanese companies are doing (are they starting more factories in Thailad, are they closing existing ones, etc.) we will have a large part of the answer.

As for currency issues, well, I am not convinced it is all "just speculations". Speculators invest/trade to make money, not to lose it, there has to be more fundamental reasons for the money coming here. Maybe they invest in Thai currency because they cannot invest in the Yuan, and believe currencies of economies in the region will rise once the Yuan eventually rise.

[rogerinthai]

I think a major factor here is Japan - Thailand's biggest trading partner, by far. If it is possible to see what major Japanese companies are doing (are they starting more factories in Thailand, are they closing existing ones, etc.) we will have a large part of the answer.

And here we got the answer to that question:

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=104193

Edited February 1, 2007 by rogerinthai

[bingobongo]

Unilever drops Thailand move

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23...3-31037,00.html

[bingobongo]

Risks rising sharply in Thailand: survey

It added that "conditions could deteriorate in 2007."

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/breakingne...newsid=30026749