How are things where you are in Thailand

[gunderhill]

3 minutes ago, amvet said:

I don't think it is news to categorize this website as a home for whinging poms.  It has been that way since I first started reading it in 2005. 

 

Someone needs to confront you fellows with economic facts/reality or we would all jump off of a high hotel balcony.  Last year was the best year economically for Thailand in the past 5 years.  That's a fact. In one town or your little bedsit it it isin't than that is an anomaly. 

You just DONT get it do you, I couldn't care  less about Thailand's economy I'm just answering the Op when he asked " what's it  like by you" I've stated what its  like by me and by me ONLY.

Pls do us all a  favour and "go find that balcony"

ps  feel free to drop by my  "little  bedsit of this whinging Pom Thai basher "( can you squeeze in anymore insults?)  set in its 15 Rai close to Hua  Hin or if your'e  in Bangkok drop by one of the six condos we own there with Mrs  Whinging Pom(Thai so only half whinging) married and been here 12 years.

Sheesh " not having a clue" must be your speciality

Edited January 6, 2018 by gunderhill

[gunderhill]

On 1/4/2018 at 9:33 PM, lovelomsak said:

It is about do people see prosperity where they are in  Thailand or do they see doom and gloom.

Try explaining that to  "Amvet"

[mpyre]

On 1/3/2018 at 4:09 AM, connda said:

What you are seeing is the result of massive debt.  Ever see all the unbuilt buildings and infrastructure after 1997?  The next popped debt bubble is going to make that look like a walk in the park.  Eat, drink, and be merry for tomorrow...............

The entire world is up to its eyeballs in debt, both public and private...when this thing finally blows we're all going down...

[speedtripler]

2 minutes ago, mpyre said:

The entire world is up to its eyeballs in debt, both public and private...when this thing finally blows we're all going down...

People I know are doing well.... Albeit some are taking more advantage of credit cards than they probably should be for material goods they don't really need

 

As Warren buffet says the markets have never *not* recovered from every recession in history so don't buy anything you wouldn't be comfortable holding at least ten years... 

 

It can only get so bad, I don't think we're looking at starvation or mass looting levels... Try and Keep a diversified portfolio of assets and you will probably come out the other side intact but maybe a bit poorer (on paper) 

 

 

[amvet]

26 minutes ago, mpyre said:

The entire world is up to its eyeballs in debt, both public and private...when this thing finally blows we're all going down...

In my little area went out to eat last night with an electrical engineer and fellow who manufactures gear for Japanese factories to check metal auto parts for quality control.  They both said business was great and get paid cash from Japan (Thai guys).  It is nice in Thailand that gold is still viable as currency and readily exchangeable on almost any street corner. 

Edited January 7, 2018 by amvet

[amvet]

9 hours ago, gunderhill said:

Try explaining that to  "Amvet"

I understand.  I live in a very prosperous area of Thailand as does everyone I know and my whole Thai family.  I don't know where you find all these poor people.  If Thailand was wracked with poverty it would be ready for street demonstrations like they are having in Iran now but they don't.  Top concerns are white willies and new cell phones. 

[Thai Ron]

19 minutes ago, amvet said:

I understand.  I live in a very prosperous area of Thailand as does everyone I know and my whole Thai family.  I don't know where you find all these poor people.  If Thailand was wracked with poverty it would be ready for street demonstrations like they are having in Iran now but they don't.  Top concerns are white willies and new cell phones. 

LOL!

 

You really can't see beyond your own nose, can you?

My neck of the woods is full of well-to-do suited and booted Thais.

New condos going for 250,000 a square meter and new Bimmers, Mercs and Porsche Cayennes as far as the eye can see.

That doesn't mean I'm oblivious to the plight of ordinary Thais just scraping by if I go outside the confines of the low-to-mid Sukhumvit  corridor.

They're not protesting because the army has banned political gatherings etc but you'd know that if you weren't so out of touch

 

Your assertions that top priorities are white penises and new cellphones seem incongruous  with the ostensibly hi-so pretensions of your Thai "family" in that "very prosperous" area of Thailand.

[amvet]

4 minutes ago, Thai Ron said:

LOL!

 

You really can't see beyond your own nose, can you?

My neck of the woods is full of well-to-do suited and booted Thais.

New condos going for 250,000 a square meter and new Bimmers, Mercs and Porsche Cayennes as far as the eye can see.

That doesn't mean I'm oblivious to the plight of ordinary Thais just scraping by if I go outside the confines of the low-to-mid Sukhumvit  corridor.

They're not protesting because the army has banned political gatherings etc but you'd know that if you weren't so out of touch

 

Your assertions that top priorities are white penises and new cellphones seem incongruous  with the ostensibly hi-so pretensions of your Thai "family" in that "very prosperous" area of Thailand.

Oh sorry.  I thought you wanted me to post about my area and not about the economy in general.  I guess you meant you wanted me to post about my area only if the information was negative to Thailand.  I'll try to think of some negative stuff to say in the future so I won't be such an embarrassment to the average TV poster. 

[Thai Ron]

Just now, amvet said:

Oh sorry.  I thought you wanted me to post about my area and not about the economy in general.  I guess you meant you wanted me to post about my area only if the information was negative to Thailand.  I'll try to think of some negative stuff to say in the future so I won't be such an embarrassment to the average TV poster. 

That is what the topic calls for - posts about your area but although you started off fine, you then went on to doubt the existence of poverty in Thailand citing the absence of Iran-style demonstrations and civil unrest as some kind of proof.

 

It sounded like you were saying that, because everything is A-OK in your neck of the woods, it's fine everywhere.

[Peterw42]

30 minutes ago, amvet said:

I understand.  I live in a very prosperous area of Thailand as does everyone I know and my whole Thai family.  I don't know where you find all these poor people.  If Thailand was wracked with poverty it would be ready for street demonstrations like they are having in Iran now but they don't.  Top concerns are white willies and new cell phones. 

Interested to know how you define a "prosperous area"? A house,car, and a big screen TV all owned outright, or House, car, TV on credit and the wages to service the credit, or House ,car TV on credit and not enough wages to service the debt. Is it full employment with a wage (for all ) that affords a certain lifestyle.

I still dont get it, a large percentage of the population earns under 500 baht a day, yet a large percentage have a prosperous 2.000 baht a day lifestyle.

What would be an estimate of the average wage in the prosperous area ?

[Brunolem]

36 minutes ago, Peterw42 said:

Interested to know how you define a "prosperous area"? A house,car, and a big screen TV all owned outright, or House, car, TV on credit and the wages to service the credit, or House ,car TV on credit and not enough wages to service the debt. Is it full employment with a wage (for all ) that affords a certain lifestyle.

I still dont get it, a large percentage of the population earns under 500 baht a day, yet a large percentage have a prosperous 2.000 baht a day lifestyle.

What would be an estimate of the average wage in the prosperous area ?

Like everywhere else in the world, wealthy people do not make their money by earning wages...that's for the peasants...unless they are professional footballers, but that's another story.

 

Wealthy people own the means of production, and a nice portfolio on the stock market to boot.

 

They make big money by paying little money to the serfs, and by benefiting from the windfall brought to the financial markets by central banks money printing.

 

As for the masses making 500 baht a day and living on 2,000 baht, the difference is made by debt...exactly like in America where students are now selling their virginity on the net, in order to pay down their debt!

 

In my little corner of the woods, a 50 house village, I can feel the "boom"...new houses are popping up like mushrooms.

 

Until recently, my house was the only one painted, because nobody could afford it...now it's a painting festival!

 

All this is financed like that:

 

The children working overtime in big factories in Bangkok or Chonburi, get bonuses because business is booming thanks to exports.

They send this money to their parents who immediately leverage it and take a big loan from a local bank, in order to start building a new house, because the neighbor has done it, and if they don't do the same they, and their children, will lose face.

 

As I try to explain to my wife, this is all very nice, but houses don't produce any income with which to pay back the loans...

 

Never mind, the frenzy goes on...until reality is going to reassert itself...

 

 

 

[Peterw42]

12 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

Like everywhere else in the world, wealthy people do not make their money by earning wages...that's for the peasants...unless they are professional footballers, but that's another story.

 

Wealthy people own the means of production, and a nice portfolio on the stock market to boot.

 

They make big money by paying little money to the serfs, and by benefiting from the windfall brought to the financial markets by central banks money printing.

 

As for the masses making 500 baht a day and living on 2,000 baht, the difference is made by debt...exactly like in America where students are now selling their virginity on the net, in order to pay down their debt!

 

In my little corner of the woods, a 50 house village, I can feel the "boom"...new houses are popping up like mushrooms.

 

Until recently, my house was the only one painted, because nobody could afford it...now it's a painting festival!

 

All this is financed like that:

 

The children working overtime in big factories in Bangkok or Chonburi, get bonuses because business is booming thanks to exports.

They send this money to their parents who immediately leverage it and take a big loan from a local bank, in order to start building a new house, because the neighbor has done it, and if they don't do the same they, and their children, will lose face.

 

As I try to explain to my wife, this is all very nice, but houses don't produce any income with which to pay back the loans...

 

Never mind, the frenzy goes on...until reality is going to reassert itself...

 

 

 

Yes, that would be my observations as well. 

 

To me its a bit like saying the US economy is booming because the price of shares is going up. When the profit/dividends from the shares remain the same. Thats buying and selling the illusion of prosperity.

[amvet]

3 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

Interested to know how you define a "prosperous area"? A house,car, and a big screen TV all owned outright, or House, car, TV on credit and the wages to service the credit, or House ,car TV on credit and not enough wages to service the debt. Is it full employment with a wage (for all ) that affords a certain lifestyle.

I still dont get it, a large percentage of the population earns under 500 baht a day, yet a large percentage have a prosperous 2.000 baht a day lifestyle.

What would be an estimate of the average wage in the prosperous area ?

Production operator. It support, Maintenance 15,000 to 20,000.  Low level exec 25,000 to 30,000.  Check out JobsThai.com  It is not difficult to get this information.  Unemployment is almost non existent in Thailand.  

[Kwasaki]

2 hours ago, Peterw42 said:

As I try to explain to my wife, this is all very nice, but houses don't produce any income with which to pay back the loans...

Depends on situation and area,  I would say.

A lady in our village borrowed money from the gov bank, built six 1 bedroom terraced apartments on her spare family land, rented them out and she's doing OK.

My wife's building three terraced apartments on savings and will renting, one person is waiting for one to be completed.

[Peterw42]

31 minutes ago, amvet said:

Production operator. It support, Maintenance 15,000 to 20,000.  Low level exec 25,000 to 30,000.  Check out JobsThai.com  It is not difficult to get this information.  Unemployment is almost non existent in Thailand.  

Were is the prosperity in those wages, repayments on the obligatory pick-up is 15k a month. 

Yes they are very realistic wages but not enough to fund the lifestyle a lot of Thais lead. Even a couple both on those wages would struggle to pay rent, service a mortgage, repay a car etc.

Thats the point many are making in this thread, wages paid dont match up with lifestyle lived, a new build house in an estate, 2 cars, consumer goods etc.

 

 

[amvet]

1 minute ago, Peterw42 said:

Were is the prosperity in those wages, repayments on the obligatory pick-up is 15k a month. 

Yes they are very realistic wages but not enough to fund the lifestyle a lot of Thais lead. Even a couple both on those wages would struggle to pay rent, service a mortgage, repay a car etc.

Thats the point many are making in this thread, wages paid dont match up with lifestyle lived, a new build house in an estate, 2 cars, consumer goods etc.

I imagine you haven't been here 20 years or more as the same was said 20 years ago but things are fine.  More people are educated every year more tourists every year and export growth every year.  In 97 the country was going to fail.  Did it?  Or did it rebound?  How is the baht doing?  The sky is not falling as the old timers will attest.  

[Thai Ron]

16 minutes ago, amvet said:

I imagine you haven't been here 20 years or more as the same was said 20 years ago but things are fine.  More people are educated every year more tourists every year and export growth every year.  In 97 the country was going to fail.  Did it?  Or did it rebound?  How is the baht doing?  The sky is not falling as the old timers will attest.  

Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it won't.

Absolutely everything is built on debt.

Debt secured against assets - real estate mostly - with values literally marked to make believe.

 

All those toxic assets CDOs, synthetic CDOs from the run up to 2007/08 and Lehman Brothers haven't been expunged from the system. 

No, they're just tucked away somewhere nice and quiet off balance sheet in so-called "bad banks".

The assets they're secured against - real estate in US - are still way down from their peaks.

 

The next crisis is a currency crisis - when everyone loses faith in the value of money (paper backed by nothing more than the promises of a government).

You can't get more "fail" than that.

Hang on to your Swiss Francs and gold 

 

 

[cliveshep]

Just bought another motor bike, it is almost new, drives like new, 7650km on the clock from new, shiny and beautiful.

 

It was a repo bike, 53 plate but has languished in a warehouse full of similar repo bikes of all ages being auctioned off. They must have over a 1000 repossessed bikes sitting gathering dust being bought in lots by dealers and sold at half price or less.

 

So is is clear the from 53 until 60 (Thai calendar) some poor folk couldn't even afford the repayments on a motorbike as we looked at a lot of them, most only a year or so old with around 8k on the clocks but a lot dearer than ours. We bought because we effectively got a new bike at a fire-sale price even thought it is older it has had  no wear at all. Tyres barely scrubbed, grips not worn, seat not worn and I couldn't care less about the age - the model is still current.

 

So I'd say from what we saw when looking that the debt for Thais in many cases has crushed them. If the high value baht bubble bursts and falls that might be good for Thailand's exports, very bad for the poorer paid folk but good for us Brit pensioners afflicted by Brexit. I am not a money man but spiralling debt has to be a very bad thing and the whole edifice has to come tumbling down soon.

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, Peterw42 said:

Were is the prosperity in those wages, repayments on the obligatory pick-up is 15k a month. 

Don't understand obligatory are those repayments on a top the range 4 door 4x4, which is use mostly as a car I would say not for work.. 

[lovelomsak]

1 hour ago, amvet said:

I imagine you haven't been here 20 years or more as the same was said 20 years ago but things are fine.  More people are educated every year more tourists every year and export growth every year.  In 97 the country was going to fail.  Did it?  Or did it rebound?  How is the baht doing?  The sky is not falling as the old timers will attest.  

I feel the same as you about the sky is falling people. I was  here is 97. Guys in Pattaya with condos that cost 150,000 were concerned  they had invested in a ghost town. Where are condos now? Doom and gloom is often used by guys with either no money to invest  or are afraid of losing what money they do have. Mostly bar stool talk just something to say to give an opinion.

  Thailand is stil far cheaper than most of Europe or America so has a long ways to go to be expensive. And is Thailand not full of pensioners from Europe who could only afford a small box apartment back in their country,so what do guys from these nations have to say about good money management.

  Rural Thais are still gatherers. They live off the land. They only work outside the home for things like cars and phones.All their cash can go on toys so to speak because they do not have a grocery bill and use little utilities.If they make 10,000 a month 9,000 can go on a car.And when little brother goes to work,together they can build a house for mom and dad. on shared salaries.

  Different world here guys.

[Airalee]

I wonder what will happen when all the latest funky mortgage loans come due.  The ones with the 105% LTV (loan to value) and the Neg-am (negatively amortizing) loans recast to a fully amortizing payment at a (much) higher interest rate.  I have seen one particular bank offering teaser terms with initial payments of only ฿1000 per ฿1,000,000 borrowed.

[lovelomsak]

1 hour ago, cliveshep said:

Just bought another motor bike, it is almost new, drives like new, 7650km on the clock from new, shiny and beautiful.

 

It was a repo bike, 53 plate but has languished in a warehouse full of similar repo bikes of all ages being auctioned off. They must have over a 1000 repossessed bikes sitting gathering dust being bought in lots by dealers and sold at half price or less.

 

So is is clear the from 53 until 60 (Thai calendar) some poor folk couldn't even afford the repayments on a motorbike as we looked at a lot of them, most only a year or so old with around 8k on the clocks but a lot dearer than ours. We bought because we effectively got a new bike at a fire-sale price even thought it is older it has had  no wear at all. Tyres barely scrubbed, grips not worn, seat not worn and I couldn't care less about the age - the model is still current.

 

So I'd say from what we saw when looking that the debt for Thais in many cases has crushed them. If the high value baht bubble bursts and falls that might be good for Thailand's exports, very bad for the poorer paid folk but good for us Brit pensioners afflicted by Brexit. I am not a money man but spiralling debt has to be a very bad thing and the whole edifice has to come tumbling down soon.

You mention your bike it is 8 years old. Sat in impound for 8 years. Along with 1000 others. That is around than 10 bikes a month being repo. Not a lot.

  I know of 2 that went back had nothing to with ability to pay.One was a divorce the husband refused to pay for sons bike after divorce so went back.The other a married man had a girl friend in University bought her a bike got tired of her dropped her and the bike payment he said he got his monies worth so no loss.

[MaeJoMTB]

1 hour ago, cliveshep said:

So I'd say from what we saw when looking that the debt for Thais in many cases has crushed them. If the high value baht bubble bursts and falls that might be good for Thailand's exports, very bad for the poorer paid folk but good for us Brit pensioners afflicted by Brexit. I am not a money man but spiralling debt has to be a very bad thing and the whole edifice has to come tumbling down soon.

Value of the Baht is irrelevant to poor Thais, they can't afford foreign holidays, and don't buy much in the way of imports.

[amvet]

1 hour ago, Airalee said:

I wonder what will happen when all the latest funky mortgage loans come due.  The ones with the 105% LTV (loan to value) and the Neg-am (negatively amortizing) loans recast to a fully amortizing payment at a (much) higher interest rate.  I have seen one particular bank offering teaser terms with initial payments of only ฿1000 per ฿1,000,000 borrowed.

What happened in 97?

[amvet]

3 hours ago, Thai Ron said:

Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it won't.

Absolutely everything is built on debt.

Debt secured against assets - real estate mostly - with values literally marked to make believe.

 

All those toxic assets CDOs, synthetic CDOs from the run up to 2007/08 and Lehman Brothers haven't been expunged from the system. 

No, they're just tucked away somewhere nice and quiet off balance sheet in so-called "bad banks".

The assets they're secured against - real estate in US - are still way down from their peaks.

 

The next crisis is a currency crisis - when everyone loses faith in the value of money (paper backed by nothing more than the promises of a government).

You can't get more "fail" than that.

Hang on to your Swiss Francs and gold

Do you know how much gold is in Thai grannies underwear drawer?  Do you know what happened to the Swiss Franc?  No of course not.  (On Wednesday one euro was worth 1.2 Swiss francs; at one point on Thursday its value had fallen to just 0.85 francs. A number of hedge funds across the world made big losses. The Swiss stockmarket collapsed.) Maybe you should look into what happened to the Thai economy in 97 the how and why and where it is now. 

[Thai Ron]

2 hours ago, amvet said:

Do you know how much gold is in Thai grannies underwear drawer?  Do you know what happened to the Swiss Franc?  No of course not.  (On Wednesday one euro was worth 1.2 Swiss francs; at one point on Thursday its value had fallen to just 0.85 francs. A number of hedge funds across the world made big losses. The Swiss stockmarket collapsed.) Maybe you should look into what happened to the Thai economy in 97 the how and why and where it is now. 

Mate, first you assumed I didn't know that most Thais are Buddhists (in another thread) and now you're making another erroneous assumption that I'm unfamiliar with what happened in this region in 1997.

 

With all due respect, given how out of touch you are on so many other things, you'll forgive me if I don't pay much mind to your attempts to "educate" me

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, amvet said:

 Do you know what happened to the Swiss Franc?  No of course not.  (On Wednesday one euro was worth 1.2 Swiss francs; at one point on Thursday its value had fallen to just 0.85 francs. A number of hedge funds across the world made big losses. The Swiss stockmarket collapsed.) Maybe you should look into what happened to the Thai economy in 97 the how and why and where it is now. 

I don't know where you got this "information"?

The Swiss Franc is very closely managed by the SNB and certainly didn't collapse by some 30 or 40% in one day!

Maybe you are confusing with the Venezuelian Bolivar...

 

Edited January 7, 2018 by Brunolem

[Brunolem]

6 hours ago, Thai Ron said:

Just because it hasn't happened yet doesn't mean it won't.

Absolutely everything is built on debt.

Debt secured against assets - real estate mostly - with values literally marked to make believe.

 

The next crisis is a currency crisis - when everyone loses faith in the value of money (paper backed by nothing more than the promises of a government).

You can't get more "fail" than that.

Hang on to your Swiss Francs and gold 

 

 

You are right.

Most people have difficulties to grasp the concept of globalization, the fact that what is going in their little corner of Pattaya, or Hua Hin, is meaningless.

 

When, not if, the next (and final) crisis will strike, Thailand will no be sparred.

Its exports will grind to a halt and tourists will disappear overnight, as they have done many times before.

 

Then, a very big chunk of the debts on the books will become unrecoverable.

Payments will stop, and so constructions will stop, as they did in 1998.

 

It is likely that the catalyst will be a currency crisis, probably starting with the dollar, already tethering on the brink.

Yesterday, Pakistan joined the group of those who have given up transacting in dollars.

We are witnessing in not so slow motion the end of the dollar as reserve currency, with the added problem that many currencies worldwide are pegged to the dollar, starting with many in East Asia.

 

As the saying goes, one could say to the members above, convinced by the Thai economic boom: enjoy it while it lasts...

[amvet]

35 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

I don't know where you got this "information"?

The Swiss Franc is very closely managed by the SNB and certainly didn't collapse by some 30 or 40% in one day!

Maybe you are confusing with the Venezuelian Bolivar...

 

January 15, 2015 when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) suddenly announced that it would no longer hold the Swiss franc at a fixed exchange rate with the euro, there was panic. You can look it up as I get paid too much to lecture novices.

Edited January 7, 2018 by amvet

[amvet]

22 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

You are right.

Most people have difficulties to grasp the concept of globalization, the fact that what is going in their little corner of Pattaya, or Hua Hin, is meaningless.

 

When, not if, the next (and final) crisis will strike, Thailand will no be sparred.

Its exports will grind to a halt and tourists will disappear overnight, as they have done many times before.

 

Then, a very big chunk of the debts on the books will become unrecoverable.

Payments will stop, and so constructions will stop, as they did in 1998.

 

It is likely that the catalyst will be a currency crisis, probably starting with the dollar, already tethering on the brink.

Yesterday, Pakistan joined the group of those who have given up transacting in dollars.

We are witnessing in not so slow motion the end of the dollar as reserve currency, with the added problem that many currencies worldwide are pegged to the dollar, starting with many in East Asia.

 

As the saying goes, one could say to the members above, convinced by the Thai economic boom: enjoy it while it lasts...

Switzerland's central bank lost $51 billion and the franc is getting hammered.  How does a central bank, which can essentially print its own money, get hit with such a loss? Thailand (we are talking about Thailand I think, dropped it's dollar peg in 1997.

Edited January 7, 2018 by amvet