How are things where you are in Thailand

[lovelomsak]

43 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

That is because, in his time, a boom like the one we are experiencing today, was not possible since all the shackles hadn't been removed.

There were two major fateful decisions:

- the creation of the US central bank in 1913, in practice the creation of the money printing machine

- the severed link between the dollar and gold, in 1971, thanks to Nixon...something much worse for the fate of humanity than the ridicule Watergate.

 

The advent of central banking was promptly followed by...the Great Depression!

Then came WWII and, in the end, the Bretton Woods accord that gave us those famous three glorious decades.

Under Bretton Woods, the dollar was linked to gold, hence limiting the possibility of the central banks to issue money and credit at will.

But after 1971, the world slowly entered in a cycle of booms and busts, each one more destructive than the previous one, until 2008...for now.

Yet, despite these ominous warnings, the rulers, that is the banksters and their affiliated oligarchs, are not willing to change anything.

As a matter of fact, like a gambler who keeps on losing, they double down (on credit creation) after each loss...which is exactly what they have done after 2008, hence the boom we are living in.

But the thing is that a boom is nothing to be happy about, this is not how the economy is supposed to work, 10 steps forward, then brutally 12 steps backwards, then forward again...

A strong economy should be humming...as they say...not roaring...

So we are now in the final stage (after the 2000 and 2008 near collapses) of this gigantic boom brought about by an even more gigantic debt buildup.

And since we will not abandon this policy, the first option offered by Mises, we will face the collapse of the currency (system).

The Chinese and the Russians, as well as a few others, are well aware of that, piling up gold in order to be ready for the next chapter, while the insouciant Westerners are selling theirs to the East.

Because, when faith in the actual currency system will collapse, a return to real money backed by real value like gold may well be the solution..

I have to say I like what you say and am a believer same as you . The economies of the world  will get a great correction in the futrue and the future appears to be coming quicker since  banks have stopped using cash and use only digital money

 BUT the thread is about Thailand and the ruling junta. Is life better since they took power for the average Thai. If consumerism is the yardstick for a better life then Thais are definitely living better now than ever before. And I think consumerism is what middle class is all about. They feed off each other buying and selling to each other.

    When the economies do collapse will it make any difference if they are in debt for a honda wave or a Mercedes? 

    

[Gecko123]

My report on my area in central Thailand can be found on page 12, post 176 of the above thread.

 

Some of the posts on this thread describing their rural villages and towns as "booming" have been met with a heavy measure of skepticism from me. Land prices have gone up largely in response to government plans to privatize (and thus borrow) against the land. When you consider a 120,000 baht per rai land price and weigh that against the profit which can be earned in most cases per rai, these current land prices seem highly inflated, and I suspect this is being driven by speculation more than potential return on investment value. Yes, there are spots in Thailand where a more favorable growing climate allows farming to be more profitable, but in the wide swaths of central and eastern Thailand everyone is locked into the same seed, fertilizer, labor, fuel and crop prices which makes me question the objectivity of these isolated reports of rural prosperity. Driving around Thailand, I can't recall a single small village or town which I would describe as enjoying out of the ordinary affluence. The above academic article would seem to support these observations.

Edited January 5, 2018 by Gecko123

[lovelomsak]

39 minutes ago, Gecko123 said:

When you consider a 120,000 baht per rai land price and weigh that against the profit which can be earned in most cases per rai, these current land prices seem highly inflated, and I suspect this is being driven by speculation more than potential return on investment value.

Could you please help me find this 120,000 baht a rai land. Where i am it 250,000 up. I would take the wife to look at buying some,for her. Just a few rai I am thrifty

[Brunolem]

3 hours ago, lovelomsak said:

I have to say I like what you say and am a believer same as you . The economies of the world  will get a great correction in the futrue and the future appears to be coming quicker since  banks have stopped using cash and use only digital money

 BUT the thread is about Thailand and the ruling junta. Is life better since they took power for the average Thai. If consumerism is the yardstick for a better life then Thais are definitely living better now than ever before. And I think consumerism is what middle class is all about. They feed off each other buying and selling to each other.

    When the economies do collapse will it make any difference if they are in debt for a honda wave or a Mercedes? 

    

It is clear that the military regime has brought much needed political and social stability to the country.

I don't follow that closely but to me it doesn't seem that they interfere much with the economy, which is left in the hands of the oligarchs, almost as in any other non-socialist country.

The middle class, I would think, is essentially made of the minority holding secure jobs in the private sector, and the countless mid-level public workers that fill up the countless administrations.

These people, who represent a small part of the total population are leaving the American dream, the way the Americans themselves live it, blissfully unaware that it is just...a dream!

Along with many economics analysts, I am convinced that, most probably during the next decade, there is going to be a major reset and the hangover is going to be both painful and lasting...I mean decades, if not centuries...

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, lovelomsak said:

Could you please help me find this 120,000 baht a rai land. Where i am it 250,000 up. I would take the wife to look at buying some,for her. Just a few rai I am thrifty

In my area you can get a rai for less than 100,000 baht

[lovelomsak]

30 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

It is clear that the military regime has brought much needed political and social stability to the country.

I don't follow that closely but to me it doesn't seem that they interfere much with the economy, which is left in the hands of the oligarchs, almost as in any other non-socialist country.

The middle class, I would think, is essentially made of the minority holding secure jobs in the private sector, and the countless mid-level public workers that fill up the countless administrations.

These people, who represent a small part of the total population are leaving the American dream, the way the Americans themselves live it, blissfully unaware that it is just...a dream!

Along with many economics analysts, I am convinced that, most probably during the next decade, there is going to be a major reset and the hangover is going to be both painful and lasting...I mean decades, if not centuries...

I have to agree.  But would like to add there is not a thing we can do to stop  it. To concern ourselves about it is what drives some of us to live in small remote villages here in Thailand.. 

[RachaRob]

The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt,
who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country,
with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title.

 

Not sure who wrote this but do like it!

[Sheryl]

The rural area I live in is definitely more prosperous than it was, largely thanks to employmeny opportunities in factories..some in the area and others up to an hour away. The factoroes rent charter buses to bring workers to and from and almost every household has at least one wage earner as a result.

The other thing that has greatly helped is the free health care scheme which has removed a common source of going into debt/having to sell home and land.

The comparatively small provincial capital town, which used to have almost nothing, now has a Big C, Tesco, Robinson and even a small Home Pro.

Definitely, things have improved economically. This trend well predates the current junta BTW.

How things are for the Thai people and how they are for resident expats are not the same thing. In fact they can be opposites since economic growth tends to make places less affordable...prices rise along with standards of living. It is definitely more expensive to live here now and that is especially tough on retirees on fixed incomes



Sent from my SM-J701F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[amvet]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

In my area you can get a rai for less than 100,000 baht

In the city in Rayong or Surin land goes for 2 to 3 million per rai.  I think it rather odd that use is not mentioned in the price of land.  

[amvet]

52 minutes ago, RachaRob said:

The world will soon wake up to the reality that everyone is broke and can collect nothing from the bankrupt,
who are owed unlimited amounts by the insolvent, who are attempting to make late payments on a bank holiday in the wrong country,
with an unacceptable currency, against defaulted collateral, of which nobody is sure who holds title.

 

Not sure who wrote this but do like it!

That argument was first heard during Tang Dynasty (A.D. 618-907).  Of course it was heard in Chinese so you may have missed it.  Just to give you a date of your view a date.  Roughly 1300 years ago.  

[amvet]

2 hours ago, Brunolem said:

It is clear that the military regime has brought much needed political and social stability to the country.

I don't follow that closely but to me it doesn't seem that they interfere much with the economy, which is left in the hands of the oligarchs, almost as in any other non-socialist country.

The middle class, I would think, is essentially made of the minority holding secure jobs in the private sector, and the countless mid-level public workers that fill up the countless administrations.

These people, who represent a small part of the total population are leaving the American dream, the way the Americans themselves live it, blissfully unaware that it is just...a dream!

Along with many economics analysts, I am convinced that, most probably during the next decade, there is going to be a major reset and the hangover is going to be both painful and lasting...I mean decades, if not centuries...

Probably should note WW1 and WWII didn't change Thailand much.  Vietnam brought prosperity, roads and education, infrastructure, and the creation of a middle class.  The last 40 years has been spent trying to teach the new middle class that they are really still poor and mentally substandard to the ruling class and to start drinking beer and wine. 

[Brunolem]

2 hours ago, lovelomsak said:

I have to agree.  But would like to add there is not a thing we can do to stop  it. To concern ourselves about it is what drives some of us to live in small remote villages here in Thailand.. 

Actually, quite a number of serious and famous (in their area of expertise) people are concerned and are actively taking measures.

 

The case of super wealthy hedge funds managers buying land in New Zealand, with landing stripes, is often cited...some do even buy whole islands.

There is a large community of wellknown investors settled in Argentina.

Closer to us, Jim Rogers, often seen on Bloomberg and the likes, has moved to Singapore, while Mr Doom and Gloom, Marc Faber, lives in Northern Thailand.

These guys are not crazy, and they have proved to be right again and again, for decades.

It is unlikely that they suddenly all lost it, exactly at the same time, and for the same reasons.

 

[gunderhill]

Drive thru Hua  Hin past the 7  Kings "show"  and you will see row after row after row of shophouses  built, theyve  been there now for 2  years  plus ,90% not  sold and the same co. has built even more farther  down the same road within 1-2-3km's also unsold.

Go to Seacon Square in Bangkok and see where the small stalls used to be inside (2nd  floor)  selling clothes and  brick a brac, toys, curios 2nd  floor, almost none existant now. Note how many of the shops in there come and go and how the  upper  floors are a  lot emptier of retailers  than they used to be, go to any of the shops there in the week and  see how quiet they are.

Look at the ads  for new cars  offering low interest and see  how its financed, people working for me (labourers) saying they cant  afford the payments on their  pick up and business is terrible.

The govt  will ALWAYS paint a  rosy picture especially here.

[simoh1490]

Re. Rows Of Empty Shop houses:

 

Every city and large town has somebody who builds rows or clusters of shop houses that remain empty, either in the wrong place or at the wrong price and they simply don't sell, it's not a meaningful indicator of wealth distribution.

 

A better one perhaps is to walk around the malls from time to time and see the volumes of people, who's there and what are they buying where, another is mall restaurants, which ones are busy and how packed - you get a sense from such things as to whether people are spending or not. Also, what stores/shops have sales when and how often. Two years ago it was unusual to see large shops having sales just before Xmas, that's prime consumer shopping time, not so this last Xmas, plenty of pre-Xmas sales, right up to Xmas itself.

 

And builders and tradespeople, who is busy, how much do they want and are they negotiating on price, the ones I know are very busy an prices aren't flexible.

 

 

[EVENKEEL]

8 hours ago, amvet said:

In the city in Rayong or Surin land goes for 2 to 3 million per rai.  I think it rather odd that use is not mentioned in the price of land.  

You're spot on the price in Rayong area, and if you want anything walking distance to beach its closer to 5  mil

[gunderhill]

5 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Re. Rows Of Empty Shop houses:

 

Every city and large town has somebody who builds rows or clusters of shop houses that remain empty, either in the wrong place or at the wrong price and they simply don't sell, it's not a meaningful indicator of wealth distribution.

 

A better one perhaps is to walk around the malls from time to time and see the volumes of people, who's there and what are they buying where, another is mall restaurants, which ones are busy and how packed - you get a sense from such things as to whether people are spending or not. Also, what stores/shops have sales when and how often. Two years ago it was unusual to see large shops having sales just before Xmas, that's prime consumer shopping time, not so this last Xmas, plenty of pre-Xmas sales, right up to Xmas itself.

 

And builders and tradespeople, who is busy, how much do they want and are they negotiating on price, the ones I know are very busy an prices aren't flexible.

 

 

Try about 150+ in this   1km stretch  of  road, Im not talking a  developer  building 6-10, anyone near Hua  hin will know these  shop  house they are painted "puke" orange, I  looked at one once, the standard of work was appalling. The developer saves the corner shop for Family mart or 7-11 and after they are in everyone else closes down , behind them are row  upon row of more shop  houses ie  not on the prime location at the front but tucked behind.

[Brunolem]

8 hours ago, gunderhill said:

Drive thru Hua  Hin past the 7  Kings "show"  and you will see row after row after row of shophouses  built, theyve  been there now for 2  years  plus ,90% not  sold and the same co. has built even more farther  down the same road within 1-2-3km's also unsold.

Go to Seacon Square in Bangkok and see where the small stalls used to be inside (2nd  floor)  selling clothes and  brick a brac, toys, curios 2nd  floor, almost none existant now. Note how many of the shops in there come and go and how the  upper  floors are a  lot emptier of retailers  than they used to be, go to any of the shops there in the week and  see how quiet they are.

Look at the ads  for new cars  offering low interest and see  how its financed, people working for me (labourers) saying they cant  afford the payments on their  pick up and business is terrible.

The govt  will ALWAYS paint a  rosy picture especially here.

This is very true, yet doesn't really reflect the state of the economy, but rather the peculiar state of mind of many Thais.

 

According to their understanding of basic economics, offer brings demand forward.

In other words, build and "they" will come, as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow morning!

 

My wife is like that: she is convinced that if she could open a Lotus supermarket in her 50 house village, she would make a fortune!

And so are plenty of others, like the two women who have built motels a few kilometers away from the village, who barely ever see a customer.

Never mind, others, "thinking" that it is a good idea, are waiting to do the same.

 

Shophouses mushroom everywhere in the country, according to same "economic principle".

A guy owns a land and, with the help of a few family members, builds a shophouse for a few hundred thousand baht, then sets a price which has nothing to do with the market (what market?) but with what feels good to him.

And whatever happens, or rather not happens, he won't change his price because that would mean losing face, and that's not good at all...

 

Note that the Thais are still very reasonable when compared to the Chinese and their 65 million empty apartments!

 

Having said that, it is unlikely that this oversupply of shophouses has much influence on the economy, or that it shows anything about its strenght.

There is also an oversupply of taxis (5 taxi-meter companies in Ubon city!) and of many other things...

[gunderhill]

19 minutes ago, Brunolem said:

This is very true, yet doesn't really reflect the state of the economy, but rather the peculiar state of mind of many Thais.

 

According to their understanding of basic economics, offer brings demand forward.

In other words, build and "they" will come, as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow morning!

 

My wife is like that: she is convinced that if she could open a Lotus supermarket in her 50 house village, she would make a fortune!

And so are plenty of others, like the two women who have built motels a few kilometers away from the village, who barely ever see a customer.

Never mind, others, "thinking" that it is a good idea, are waiting to do the same.

 

Shophouses mushroom everywhere in the country, according to same "economic principle".

A guy owns a land and, with the help of a few family members, builds a shophouse for a few hundred thousand baht, then sets a price which has nothing to do with the market (what market?) but with what feels good to him.

And whatever happens, or rather not happens, he won't change his price because that would mean losing face, and that's not good at all...

 

Note that the Thais are still very reasonable when compared to the Chinese and their 65 million empty apartments!

 

Having said that, it is unlikely that this oversupply of shophouses has much influence on the economy, or that it shows anything about its strenght.

There is also an oversupply of taxis (5 taxi-meter companies in Ubon city!) and of many other things...

Wasnt  judging the whole economy, the question was "how is it by you"

[amvet]

4 hours ago, gunderhill said:

Try about 150+ in this   1km stretch  of  road, Im not talking a  developer  building 6-10, anyone near Hua  hin will know these  shop  house they are painted "puke" orange, I  looked at one once, the standard of work was appalling. The developer saves the corner shop for Family mart or 7-11 and after they are in everyone else closes down , behind them are row  upon row of more shop  houses ie  not on the prime location at the front but tucked behind.

It is truly amazing that the baht is as strong as ever almost no unemployment and GDP keeps rising.  2017 was the best economic performance in 5 years (Bloomberg).  Tourism is up.  The Chinese are still putting millions into new hotels and apartments as Thailand is a much better investment than China.  I wonder how all this stuff happens when they paint shop house puke orange?  Hard to imagine.

Edited January 6, 2018 by amvet

[gunderhill]

1 hour ago, amvet said:

It is truly amazing that the baht is as strong as ever almost no unemployment and GDP keeps rising.  2017 was the best economic performance in 5 years (Bloomberg).  Tourism is up.  The Chinese are still putting millions into new hotels and apartments as Thailand is a much better investment than China.  I wonder how all this stuff happens when they paint shop house puke orange?  Hard to imagine.

see above  reply

[amvet]

10 minutes ago, gunderhill said:

see above  reply

Yes I wrote it.  What am I supposed to see? Unless you mean how is it by me.  And it is fine the area is booming as is every place I know of in Thailand.  Macro economy is made up of thousands of micro economies and in Thailand they are thriving.  People from countries whose currencies are in decline are prone to paint everyone with a brush of doom and gloom but that's been the case on Thai Visa for Brits for the past 10 years. 

Edited January 6, 2018 by amvet

[gunderhill]

1 hour ago, amvet said:

Yes I wrote it.  What am I supposed to see? Unless you mean how is it by me.  And it is fine the area is booming as is every place I know of in Thailand.  Macro economy is made up of thousands of micro economies and in Thailand they are thriving.  People from countries whose currencies are in decline are prone to paint everyone with a brush of doom and gloom but that's been the case on Thai Visa for Brits for the past 10 years. 

Oh dear the topic is  "How are  things where you are in Thailand" this is what I have answered I am not discussing the entire economy as its  not the topic.

[geriatrickid]

I note the comment on the empty shophouses in Hua Hin and would add the  vacant condo developments. I won't mention one place but it is named after Adam & Eve's hometown. We drove by today and  those buildings weren't even  completed, just abandoned. So many empty townhouses on the other side of the tracks. Once you buy a condo or a town house it looks like you are stuck with it unless you sell at a loss. FN outlet is massive but empty. Venezia is lovely, but  bereft of customers etc. Bluport is my favourite shopping mall, but the  merchandise is 10-20% more expensive than elsewhere.  I am certain that someone coming from Pattaya would have sticker shock with the prices. Yes, lots of new cheap consumer items to be had, but the debt that goes along with it makes the borrowers slaves to their debt.

 

Remember, Thailand is still an agrarian economy with most wage earners are living a subsistence existence.

[gunderhill]

6 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

I note the comment on the empty shophouses in Hua Hin and would add the  vacant condo developments. I won't mention one place but it is named after Adam & Eve's hometown. We drove by today and  those buildings weren't even  completed, just abandoned. So many empty townhouses on the other side of the tracks. Once you buy a condo or a town house it looks like you are stuck with it unless you sell at a loss. FN outlet is massive but empty. Venezia is lovely, but  bereft of customers etc. Bluport is my favourite shopping mall, but the  merchandise is 10-20% more expensive than elsewhere.  I am certain that someone coming from Pattaya would have sticker shock with the prices. Yes, lots of new cheap consumer items to be had, but the debt that goes along with it makes the borrowers slaves to their debt.

 

Remember, Thailand is still an agrarian economy with most wage earners are living a subsistence existence.

Yes Venezia  is a Ghost Town and must have cost a fortune to  build and I though that FN had closed  down? I dont  go  that way too often. Also Baan Klang condo, someone I know is  selling, had to sell at a substantial loss as zero interest. I still prefer Market  Village which has expanded into the basement so there is "some" growth

[Brunolem]

24 minutes ago, geriatrickid said:

 

Remember, Thailand is still an agrarian economy with most wage earners are living a subsistence existence.

Very true!

And for these tens of millions of people, there is no economic boom!

Since banks reopened on Wednesday, farmers have been queeing, and still are, in order to collect a government handout of 1,000 baht per rai, to help them survive!

 

It's like in the US where the economy is also booming, but where 95 million working age people are not employed, and 45 million are on food stamps!

 

In the meantime, it is true that Ferrari has never sold so many cars...so there must be a boom...somewhere...

 

[speedtripler]

1 hour ago, Brunolem said:

Very true!

And for these tens of millions of people, there is no economic boom!

Since banks reopened on Wednesday, farmers have been queeing, and still are, in order to collect a government handout of 1,000 baht per rai, to help them survive!

 

It's like in the US where the economy is also booming, but where 95 million working age people are not employed, and 45 million are on food stamps!

 

In the meantime, it is true that Ferrari has never sold so many cars...so there must be a boom...somewhere...

 

One of my neighbours bought a new yellow ferrari few days ago..... Very nice but it's difficult to get it into the soi with the speed ramps and I'm not sure what he's going to do when it rains because our street floods quite often

 

No idea how they can afford them... 

[amvet]

3 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

I note the comment on the empty shophouses in Hua Hin and would add the  vacant condo developments. I won't mention one place but it is named after Adam & Eve's hometown. We drove by today and  those buildings weren't even  completed, just abandoned. So many empty townhouses on the other side of the tracks. Once you buy a condo or a town house it looks like you are stuck with it unless you sell at a loss. FN outlet is massive but empty. Venezia is lovely, but  bereft of customers etc. Bluport is my favourite shopping mall, but the  merchandise is 10-20% more expensive than elsewhere.  I am certain that someone coming from Pattaya would have sticker shock with the prices. Yes, lots of new cheap consumer items to be had, but the debt that goes along with it makes the borrowers slaves to their debt.

 

Remember, Thailand is still an agrarian economy with most wage earners are living a subsistence existence.

Today about 30% of Thais are engaged in agriculture.  https://tradingeconomics.com/thailand/employment-in-agriculture-percent-of-total-employment-wb-data.html

[amvet]

3 hours ago, gunderhill said:

Oh dear the topic is  "How are  things where you are in Thailand" this is what I have answered I am not discussing the entire economy as its  not the topic.

You are trying to understand the Thai economy by a small group of anecdotal evidence that is in most cases not reflective of the Thai economy as a whole in an attempt to bash Thailand.  2017 was the best year economically for Thailand out of the last 5 years.  Perhaps not in Nakon nowhere but in Thailand as a whole.  You will not find any reputable information to the contrary except by Mr Nobody and his family on Thaivisa.  You might want to investigate when Thailand changed from an agricultural nation to an industrial nation and the effect of globalization on traditional outdated cliches of Thai economic theory. 

[gunderhill]

12 minutes ago, amvet said:

You are trying to understand the Thai economy by a small group of anecdotal evidence that is in most cases not reflective of the Thai economy as a whole in an attempt to bash Thailand.  2017 was the best year economically for Thailand out of the last 5 years.  Perhaps not in Nakon nowhere but in Thailand as a whole.  You will not find any reputable information to the contrary except by Mr Nobody and his family on Thaivisa.  You might want to investigate when Thailand changed from an agricultural nation to an industrial nation and the effect of globalization on traditional outdated cliches of Thai economic theory. 

Nope  I'm  not, I'm saying what its  like by me as per the OP, you however are.

It would appear other people living around here  see the same as I do, you could watch Harald Baldrs video on Hua Hin dying city, you tube.

Edited January 6, 2018 by gunderhill

[amvet]

13 minutes ago, gunderhill said:

Nope  I'm  not, I'm saying what its  like by me as per the OP, you however are.

It would appear other people living around here  see the same as I do, you could watch Harald Baldrs video on Hua Hin dying city, you tube.

I don't think it is news to categorize this website as a home for whinging poms.  It has been that way since I first started reading it in 2005. 

 

Someone needs to confront you fellows with economic facts/reality or we would all jump off of a high hotel balcony.  Last year was the best year economically for Thailand in the past 5 years.  That's a fact. In one town or your little bedsit it it isn't than that is an anomaly. 

Edited January 6, 2018 by amvet