What the heck

[oldhippy]

3 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

 

The rate at introduction was 1.1795

 

https://www.eurusd.co/history.html

Yes and no.

 

In 1999 the euro was introduced as a virtual currency, a accounting currency at 118 US cents.

In 2002 the euro was introduced as a real currency at 89 US cents.

 

 

 

[Berkshire]

This helps to explain....

 

[“Obviously, a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities,” Mnuchin told reporters in Davos. Mnuchin said recent declines in the value of the dollar against other currencies were “not a concern of ours at all.”

The dollar continued its recent descent following Mnuchin’s remarks. It’s now down about 10 percent against a basket of other currencies since last January, when President Donald Trump said the greenback was “too strong,” making it hard for U.S. companies to compete against China and other countries.]

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/24/white-house-trump-attack-u-s-dollar-308351

[oldhippy]

There was a time (50's - 80's) when economists were able to make rather accurate predictions.

The world was stable: the iron curtain was solid as eeuuh steel, people trusted the banks that could not possibly fail, there were no big political changes.

Those days are over.

 

At the very best we can predict that younger economies (Asia) will grow faster than the old ones (Europe, US), resulting in a long term strengthening of Asian currencies.

 

But i am 66, so I say with Keynes: In the long run we are all dead.....

(I used to teach macro economics).

 

 

 

 

[oldhippy]

22 minutes ago, Berkshire said:

This helps to explain....

 

[“Obviously, a weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities,” Mnuchin told reporters in Davos. Mnuchin said recent declines in the value of the dollar against other currencies were “not a concern of ours at all.”

The dollar continued its recent descent following Mnuchin’s remarks. It’s now down about 10 percent against a basket of other currencies since last January, when President Donald Trump said the greenback was “too strong,” making it hard for U.S. companies to compete against China and other countries.]

 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/24/white-house-trump-attack-u-s-dollar-308351

Let's hope this will not end up as a repeat of the 30's, when all countries devalued their currencies for that exact same reason. "The devaluation race".

Result: instability and hostility, and when it was all over, basically back to the old exchange rates.

 

Also, there is a catch:

Imports should decline (because more expensive), but if your consumers still want the same products the result will be a price rise. And for manufacturers some imports could be vital, so no decrease of imports, only higher prices.

And obviously, you need to produce goods and services that other countries are enough interested in.

 

Traditionally it was said that devaluations (depreciations) wear out after maximum 3 years.

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

13 hours ago, oldhippy said:

There was a time (50's - 80's) when economists were able to make rather accurate predictions.

The world was stable: the iron curtain was solid as eeuuh steel, people trusted the banks that could not possibly fail, there were no big political changes.

Those days are over.

 

At the very best we can predict that younger economies (Asia) will grow faster than the old ones (Europe, US), resulting in a long term strengthening of Asian currencies.

 

But i am 66, so I say with Keynes: In the long run we are all dead.....

(I used to teach macro economics).

 

Can the world economy really rely on the Asian growth engineer to keep rolling on?

It has been 20 years since the last Asian financial crisis and in the case of China they have had 30 years of unstoppable positive and sometimes double digit % growth.

Financial crises tend to come and go, every 10-12 years, at least in the west, so is Asia due?

The problem is, what will be the trigger effect? Defaults in China? real-estate collapse? Inflation? Capital flight? Slowdown in exports? War?

 

 

 

Edited January 26, 2018 by ExpatOilWorker

[morrobay]

27 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

 

Financial crises tend to come and go, every 10-12 years, at least in the west, so is Asia due?

The problem is, what will be the trigger effect? Defaults in China? real-estate collapse? Inflation? Capital flight? Slowdown in exports? War?

 

 

 

 

Good questions, and add to the list : Ending of easy money. https://www.ft.com/content/845a9c2a-5fbc-11e7-8814-0ac7eb84e5f1

See paragraph 7 :  " Almost 2 T in emerging market bonds and debt come due by end of 2018

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, morrobay said:

 

Good questions, and add to the list : Ending of easy money. https://www.ft.com/content/845a9c2a-5fbc-11e7-8814-0ac7eb84e5f1

See paragraph 7 :  " Almost 2 T in emerging market bonds and debt come due by end of 2018

Can you PM me a copy/paste of the article? U need subscription to read the link.

[Mac98]

On 1/24/2018 at 12:05 PM, The manic said:

If 0.7% is of such significance to you you should be so wealthy that it makes no difference. Have one less beer a week or one less whore a month. But the reason? Ask Soros!

That 0.7% was the difference between my retirement income equaling 800,000 baht and falling short. I know a bank account can make up the difference, but I read that you already have to be a be a long-term resident to open an account these days. Was planning a move in April, having visited up to six months at a time for 20 years.

[The manic]

18 minutes ago, Mac98 said:

That 0.7% was the difference between my retirement income equaling 800,000 baht and falling short. I know a bank account can make up the difference, but I read that you already have to be a be a long-term resident to open an account these days. Was planning a move in April, having visited up to six months at a time for 20 years.

You can open an account any time.

[morrobay]

3 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Can you PM me a copy/paste of the article? U need subscription to read the link.

I just googled : End of easy money in emerging markets.      And there many open source papers on subject including above.

[ExpatOilWorker]

9 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

 

Can the world economy really rely on the Asian growth engineer to keep rolling on?

It has been 20 years since the last Asian financial crisis and in the case of China they have had 30 years of unstoppable positive and sometimes double digit % growth.

Financial crises tend to come and go, every 10-12 years, at least in the west, so is Asia due?

The problem is, what will be the trigger effect? Defaults in China? real-estate collapse? Inflation? Capital flight? Slowdown in exports? War?

 

 

The weak Dollar could be a trigger for the next Asia financial crises, possible starting in China.

 

Until recently Chinese companies went on a wild shopping spree all over the world. As these companies credit rating is falling they now find it harder to service their Yuan denominated debt and are selling foreign assets, but thanks to the weaker dollar have to repatriate at a less favorable exchange rate.

 

HNA Group is a good example, They just sole some office building in Sydney and have about 12 billion yuan in debt maturing this year. 

HNA have a total debt of about $100 billion and as debt mature they will have to pay 20% interest rate. This size of debt and rate is comparable with Venezuela's sovereign debt and it is not hard to see where they are going.

 

 

 

[morrobay]

Actually its the dollar denominated  debt as interest rates rise that will be the undoing in Asian emerging markets.

 https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/markets/emerging-markets-and-the-end-of-easy-money

If I heard correctly in an interview on Bloomberg in Davos, Swittzerland . The economist said Asian currencies are " floating". (from easy money) 

[ExpatOilWorker]

4 hours ago, morrobay said:

Actually its the dollar denominated  debt as interest rates rise that will be the undoing in Asian emerging markets.

 https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/markets/emerging-markets-and-the-end-of-easy-money

If I heard correctly in an interview on Bloomberg in Davos, Swittzerland . The economist said Asian currencies are " floating". (from easy money) 

Not much meat on that article. It is from November 2017 and he is predicting a stronger dollar, which of course we all know now never happened.

[morrobay]

28 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Not much meat on that article. It is from November 2017 and he is predicting a stronger dollar, which of course we all know now never happened.

In first sentance he says dollar is down 7  percent. I dont see any predictions from Nov 2017 about dollar. In rest of article he is projecting an increase for 2018 in accord with future rate rises. And some related history  during tightening cycles.

[ExpatOilWorker]

6 minutes ago, morrobay said:

In first sentance he says dollar is down 7  percent. I dont see any predictions from Nov 2017 about dollar. In rest of article he is projecting an increase for 2018 in accord with future rate rises. And some related history  during tightening cycles.

Yes, is is saying everything was honky dory in 2017 because if the 7% dollar fall and then continue to explain why emerging markets are in trouble because the party is over and the dollar will gain strength. Well the darn dollar is still falling.

 

[Hardie]

Check the price of oil, seems there's always an inverse relationship with the value of the USD...

[Koratjohn77]

On January 24, 2018 at 10:04 PM, janclaes47 said:

Really ?

 

You mean 36.04 in January 2016 is the same as 31.50 today.

 

Can I exchange some USD with you at the 2016 rate, if it's all the same for you?

That's just not correct it hasn't fluctuated that much as you stated it's been more like between 32 and 33.  I remember back in 2010 it was 35 baht to the dollar.  Yes it's exactly 31.50 today it has been approximately the same for years.  I've never seen it above 35 baht to the dollar before never, but I was never here prior to 2010 when it was about 35 baht to the dollar.  Over the past 4 years that I've actually lived here it's been about the same but has slightly changed over the past 8 years.  

[janclaes47]

1 minute ago, Koratjohn77 said:

That's just not correct it hasn't fluctuated that much as you stated it's been more like between 32 and 33.  I remember back in 2010 it was 35 baht to the dollar.  Yes it's exactly 31.50 today it has been approximately the same for years.  I've never seen it above 35 baht to the dollar before never, but I was never here prior to 2010 when it was about 35 baht to the dollar.  Over the past 4 years that I've actually lived here it's been about the same but has slightly changed over the past 8 years.  

 

Instead of calling me a liar in my face, you could have looked it up yourself.

 

[Koratjohn77]

On January 25, 2018 at 10:06 AM, Suradit69 said:

I'm not sure what you're talking about. Looking at the high and low over the past 5 years, it ranges from Baht 28.6 to Baht 36.5 to the dollar and even using  today's rate shown at Bangkok Bank at Baht 31.30 compared with the  high of Baht 36.50, that's a difference of Baht 5.20.

 

If you wanted to put Baht 800,000 in your Thai bank account for a retirement extension and did it either at the best rate (36.5) or the worst rate (28.6), it would cost you either $27,972 or   $21,918 and at today's rate (31.30) it would be $25.560.

 

For anyone living on a limited fixed income, those fluctuations are pretty significant, especially if your timing is bad ... and isn't it always.

 

 

I've never seen it above 35 baht to the dollar going back to 2010.  Over the past 4 years that I've actually lived here it's been between approximately 32 and 33 it's 31.50 now.  I don't know where people are coming up with these numbers sounds like people have been getting screwed by the banks.  That's why I keep my money in the states ATM withdrawal fees are 220 baht.  I don't know about some of these other people but I've been getting almost exactly the same exchange rate since I've been living here.  The ATM fees have gone up by 20 baht I've noticed over the past year.  As far as the exchange rate I'm not sure where some people on here are getting their figures.  And I do pay pretty close attention to it mostly.  

[Koratjohn77]

8 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

 

Instead of calling me a liar in my face, you could have looked it up yourself.

 

Okay so you know how to use Microsoft Excel.  I go by what my actual currency converter app tells me and it's accurate by the hour.  

[Koratjohn77]

I swear every time I log in here it's expats complaining about something.  I actually like it here that's why I choose to live here.  

[janclaes47]

3 minutes ago, Koratjohn77 said:

Okay so you know how to use Microsoft Excel.  I go by what my actual currency converter app tells me and it's accurate by the hour.  

Nothing to do with Excel mate, it's the Kasikorn website, available to everyone with a pc and a brain.

 

http://www.kasikornbank.com/en/Rate/Pages/Foreign-Exchange.aspx

[jerry921]

Yes, Mnuchin said a weak dollar was helpful. He and his office issued a clarification shortly afterward walking back the remark, saying it had been misinterpreted, that he was talking about "in the short term only" and saying in the long term a stronger dollar was more desirable. Trump also made a personal statement in favor of a strong dollar. So you can believe whichever statement you want, they've jawboned both sides.

 

There's talk about protectionist policies (that's probably going to be more talk than action), and talk about a big deficit-expanding infrastructure bill (which might have trouble getting passed by the Senate).

 

And there's talk about 4 more interest rate increases during 2018 for a total of 1%.

 

Yes the Euro rates might start higher, but I bet that gets delayed longer than people expect - that's still at the talking stage with no real increases seen yet.

 

All the things that are leading to weakness are so far only talk. The only thing actually happening so far is increasing rates, and that should strengthen the dollar.

 

So believe what you want, but I still think the current dollar weakness is a head fake caused by talk and the interest rate increases the US has already made and the 4 more that are penciled in for 2018 will take the dollar higher after the effect of the talk blows over.

 

Ignore the jawboning, watch their hands on the levers.

 

And above all, don't panic.

 

Just my two baht worth.

[Berkshire]

More evidence that the Trump Administration is deliberately weakening the USD...

 

[But some of the comments and actions by the U.S. government are encouraging investors to send the dollar lower. It has shed almost 13% versus other leading currencies since the start of last year.]

[Fels points to the Trump administration's moves to slash taxes and boost spending, which he says are coming at "the wrong time" -- namely when the economy is already in good shape. The measures will pile on more government debt, making investors less eager to own dollar assets, like U.S. Treasury bonds.]

[Policies like that "are sending an implicit but very clear signal to markets: A weaker dollar is the goal," Fels wrote. "Markets have understood the signal."]

 

http://money.cnn.com/2018/02/02/investing/dollar-currency-cold-war/index.html

[morrobay]

On 1/30/2018 at 10:24 AM, jerry921 said:

Yes, Mnuchin said a weak dollar was helpful. He and his office issued a clarification shortly afterward walking back the remark, saying it had been misinterpreted, that he was talking about "in the short term only" and saying in the long term a stronger dollar was more desirable. Trump also made a personal statement in favor of a strong dollar. So you can believe whichever statement you want, they've jawboned both sides.

 

There's talk about protectionist policies (that's probably going to be more talk than action), and talk about a big deficit-expanding infrastructure bill (which might have trouble getting passed by the Senate).

 

And there's talk about 4 more interest rate increases during 2018 for a total of 1%.

 

Yes the Euro rates might start higher, but I bet that gets delayed longer than people expect - that's still at the talking stage with no real increases seen yet.

 

All the things that are leading to weakness are so far only talk. The only thing actually happening so far is increasing rates, and that should strengthen the dollar.

 

So believe what you want, but I still think the current dollar weakness is a head fake caused by talk and the interest rate increases the US has already made and the 4 more that are penciled in for 2018 will take the dollar higher after the effect of the talk blows over.

 

Ignore the jawboning, watch their hands on the levers.

 

And above all, don't panic.

 

Just my two baht worth.

I agree and as some on the Bloomberg guest interviews have said : its not about "talk " but about action. And as the reference here states the Trump tax cuts will boost foreign investment/inflows and the dollar will rise. Prediction : The dollar has already hit the floor and is going up. If the dollar is expected to appreciate in 2018 in part from % rates going up, then why would FX traders wait to buy the dollar ? 

 

https://www.americanaccountingandtax.com/trade-and-capital-flow-consequences-of-tax-reform-a-means-to-a-faster-expansion-of-u-s-capital-formation-and-employment/

 

Edited February 4, 2018 by morrobay

[ExpatOilWorker]

7 hours ago, morrobay said:

I agree and as some on the Bloomberg guest interviews have said : its not about "talk " but about action. And as the reference here states the Trump tax cuts will boost foreign investment/inflows and the dollar will rise. Prediction : The dollar has already hit the floor and is going up. If the dollar is expected to appreciate in 2018 in part from % rates going up, then why would FX traders wait to buy the dollar ? 

 

https://www.americanaccountingandtax.com/trade-and-capital-flow-consequences-of-tax-reform-a-means-to-a-faster-expansion-of-u-s-capital-formation-and-employment/

 

Something bigger could also be at play here. The Dow had a fairly big 650+ point drop Friday. The tide of easy QE money could have turned and over the next couple of years we will have to get use to more normal inflation/interest condition. The yield of 10 years treasure is also sharply up and will soon reach 3%.

Unless 30 year treasure follow suit, we might have a negative yield curve. China already have a negative yield curve and usually this is a strong signal of dark clouds ahead.

The M2 money supply is a subject in its own right, but in most cases it could need some trimming, but who will take the pain of some good old wealth destruction?

[morrobay]

Yes and its about time reality hits these suger cool aid qe monopoly stock trading weasles. They , thanks to those SAPS at the fed including hacks ( Mr financial crisis ) greenspan and bernanke have been running roughshod on the dollar for too long. Quote from Stalin : The way to destroy a country is to destroy its currency. Sounds like treason to me.

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, morrobay said:

Yes and its about time reality hits these suger cool aid qe monopoly stock trading weasles. They , thanks to those SAPS at the fed including hacks ( Mr financial crisis ) greenspan and bernanke have been running roughshod on the dollar for too long. Quote from Stalin : The way to destroy a country is to destroy its currency. Sounds like treason to me.

Venezuela is currently going down the drain financially and I wouldn't be surprised when we start see some hangovers from excessive QE.