Start with crypto now - Should or not?

[phycokiller]

3 hours ago, lkn said:

What is the end goal? I.e. will you eventually cash out?

 

And if so, can you explain where the profit comes from?

 

E.g. if it goes to $60k and everybody decides that now is the time to cash out (realize the profit), that is more than a trillion dollars, where does that come from?

 

Are you expecting that when bitcoin hits $60k there will be new buyers lining up to buy at that price for a total of more than a trillion dollars? Or are you expecting that people who buy into bitcoin will basically never cash out?

 

If the goal is to never cash out, how exactly is this an investment?

personally I dont plan to cash out, at least not into fiat. maybe out of bitcoin to another coin if another becomes dominant

[metisdead]

A number of inflammatory and insulting posts have been removed as well as the replies:

 

7) You will respect fellow members and post in a civil manner. No personal attacks, hateful or insulting towards other members, (flaming) Stalking of members on either the forum or via PM will not be allowed.

[NiwPix]

I am going to take the time to reply to IKN. I am not sure if he is just flaming or genuinely interested in the "hype" on cyrpto/bitcoin and wants to understand it...out of my perspective of course. Opinions may differ.

First of all, I would like to say that cyrpto is "new" and thus a big risk and always will be risky...just like the stock was a risk when it started and to this day is still a risk. Just like money is a risk and to this day is a risk...I think the same is with cyrpto.

 

I would say cyrpto currency is similar to the stock market:

Buy 1 Google stock for $1. A year later it is worth $5. Another year later it is worth $100. And then you "cash out". Who decides the stock is worth $100. Google doesnt really have any assets, except for a unbelievable good algorithm. Where did the $99 profit you made come from? People just think the company is worth x million/billion of dollars.

 

When I worked, I got money transferred to my account every other week. I logged into my account and saw numbers. Then I wrote checks to pay mortgage, I shopped online, I paid my bills online. The money I earned, I never physically saw / touched. They were just digital numbers.

If the US would've gone bankrupt...or more bankrupt than now ;), my dollars could've been worthless..especially in other countries.

 

The currency is not really backed by anything. They can print money at will. It is just a piece of paper...and people accept it because they know they can use it to pay rent and buy groceries etc.

Who decides the value of gold? It is said that gold is what the world resets itself, the currency will be gold. IF the world comes to end, what good is gold for you if you dont have enough food to survive?

 

Cyrpto currency will be the future of currency. I even could see countries creating their own cyrpto currencies.

Do I plan on cashing out on cyrpto? No way Jose.

What is my goal? To have the cyrpto(s) of the future ( Sorry, I dont think it will be bitcoin ). I would like to have as many cyrpto as possible while the price is low. I would like to be able to go on amazon and use my xyz cyrpto to buy a TV ie.

I would like to use my xyz cyrpto to pay bills or book a vacation.

Right now the use is very limited, but give it some time many people will start accepting it and the value of the cyrpto will rise.

[lkn]

9 minutes ago, NiwPix said:

I would say cyrpto currency is similar to the stock market:

Buy 1 Google stock for $1. A year later it is worth $5. Another year later it is worth $100. And then you "cash out". Who decides the stock is worth $100. Google doesnt really have any assets, except for a unbelievable good algorithm. Where did the $99 profit you made come from? People just think the company is worth x million/billion of dollars.

When you bought Google stocks for $1 they had a business model that earned them 5 cents per share (primarily by selling ads).

 

The money you invested in Google (by buying shares), got used to build new data centers, lay more fiber cable, hire more engineers, and overall improve their business, and through these improvements, they increased their market share and thus revenue, so now they’re making $5 per share, the same share that you bought for $1.

 

So when you “cash out” you’re selling a revenue stream (of $5 per share) to someone else, who is willing to pay $100, because they are buying into a business that is generating $5 per year for every $100 that gets invested, and they still have room to grow.

 

Disclaimer: Numbers above made up, but that is the general idea of what stocks are. It’s very different from a cryptocurrency where there is no underlying asset or revenue generating business model.

[lkn]

1 hour ago, NiwPix said:

The currency is not really backed by anything. They can print money at will. It is just a piece of paper...and people accept it because they know they can use it to pay rent and buy groceries etc.

If you are North Korea, yes.

 

But in general the value of a currency is based on the underlying economy.

 

Take Switzerland, people who produce dairy products there and sell to Germany will have to pay tax to the Swiss government in CHF. That means that either the dairy exporters will require Germans to pay in CHF, which creates demand for CHF (as the Germans will have to buy CHF before they can buy Swiss dairy products), or they will be paid in EURO, where they must sell a large part to cover their local expenses (like tax) so again, demand for CHF is created.

 

The U.S. dollar is a little special in that a lot of commodities are traded in USD (like oil, coffee, etc.), so there is a lot of demand for USD which is not directly from buying American products, which some argue is why the U.S. can get away with running such a big deficit.

 

This is of course a simplification, but a country can’t just print lots of new money without consequences, that has already been tried several times, and it never ends well.

 

I’m sure someone will take this to rant about all the problems with the U.S. economy, quantitative easing, etc.

 

Though I would be happy though if we can keep it to cryptocurrencies. The alleged irresponsible financial policies of some countries does not answer any of the questions in my original post above.

 

So far the best answer is that people will never cash out.

[NiwPix]

How would you explain a few years ago in Greece, the citizens were allowed to only withdraw 50 Euro of THEIR OWN MONEY per day from banks?

Something similar happened to in England back in the 60's or 70's...I dont remember when it was. I must also admit, this is going off a story from somebody I had many discussions with and I did not actually research his claim...but I can see it being true.

 

Just these two things alone made me think "Is my money really safe in the Bank"? Should I maybe store it in a safe, but there I remember stories from my grandma how during war time soldiers just took over their house and they lost everything. ( military = government )

Enough stories of corrupt police marching into houses and stealing things and no evidence. ( Police = government )

Then there is also an example of the Reichsmark. Worthless after the war.

What happens if the US or any strong economy go into a major war or loads of terror attacks?

 

I did not study business / finances, but I KNOW nobody really understands all the sh*t that goes on. Huge market crash in 2008...and just recently "another" Dow adjustment. Everything just seems overall inflated and it just doesnt feel right.

I do not trust the current financial system and dont see it getting any better...quite the opposite actually.

I also can not foresee that cyrpto will survive, but I just dont see how this can fail. It just needs time to shine. The people decide the value, not the government. Interesting new concept.....time will tell how this spans out.

[speedtripler]

3 hours ago, NiwPix said:

How would you explain a few years ago in Greece, the citizens were allowed to only withdraw 50 Euro of THEIR OWN MONEY per day from banks?

Something similar happened to in England back in the 60's or 70's...I dont remember when it was. I must also admit, this is going off a story from somebody I had many discussions with and I did not actually research his claim...but I can see it being true.

 

Just these two things alone made me think "Is my money really safe in the Bank"? Should I maybe store it in a safe, but there I remember stories from my grandma how during war time soldiers just took over their house and they lost everything. ( military = government )

Enough stories of corrupt police marching into houses and stealing things and no evidence. ( Police = government )

Then there is also an example of the Reichsmark. Worthless after the war.

What happens if the US or any strong economy go into a major war or loads of terror attacks?

 

I did not study business / finances, but I KNOW nobody really understands all the sh*t that goes on. Huge market crash in 2008...and just recently "another" Dow adjustment. Everything just seems overall inflated and it just doesnt feel right.

I do not trust the current financial system and dont see it getting any better...quite the opposite actually.

I also can not foresee that cyrpto will survive, but I just dont see how this can fail. It just needs time to shine. The people decide the value, not the government. Interesting new concept.....time will tell how this spans out.

Precisely - bitcoin is gaining value at a tremendous rate in the last 8 years or you can look at it as fiat money is losing value every year and neither statement is wrong

 

There are a lot of opportunities opening up in a new asset class, if people can't see the wood for the trees then they will miss out but that's life.... 

 

 

 

 

[Jabers]

On 2/6/2018 at 9:45 AM, Skeptic7 said:

"only up" 

 

 

yes pops, as i said.... only up

 

 

if you would of bought that day you made an embarrassing comment, you would of made 150,000 baht.

 

not bad in less then 2 weeks huh?

 

or maybe you are happy with the 150 baht made from government savings ?

[Jabers]

18 hours ago, NiwPix said:

I am going to take the time to reply to IKN. I am not sure if he is just flaming or genuinely interested in the "hype" on cyrpto/bitcoin and wants to understand it...out of my perspective of course. Opinions may differ.

First of all, I would like to say that cyrpto is "new" and thus a big risk and always will be risky...just like the stock was a risk when it started and to this day is still a risk. Just like money is a risk and to this day is a risk...I think the same is with cyrpto.

 

I would say cyrpto currency is similar to the stock market:

Buy 1 Google stock for $1. A year later it is worth $5. Another year later it is worth $100. And then you "cash out". Who decides the stock is worth $100. Google doesnt really have any assets, except for a unbelievable good algorithm. Where did the $99 profit you made come from? People just think the company is worth x million/billion of dollars.

 

When I worked, I got money transferred to my account every other week. I logged into my account and saw numbers. Then I wrote checks to pay mortgage, I shopped online, I paid my bills online. The money I earned, I never physically saw / touched. They were just digital numbers.

If the US would've gone bankrupt...or more bankrupt than now ;), my dollars could've been worthless..especially in other countries.

 

The currency is not really backed by anything. They can print money at will. It is just a piece of paper...and people accept it because they know they can use it to pay rent and buy groceries etc.

Who decides the value of gold? It is said that gold is what the world resets itself, the currency will be gold. IF the world comes to end, what good is gold for you if you dont have enough food to survive?

 

Cyrpto currency will be the future of currency. I even could see countries creating their own cyrpto currencies.

Do I plan on cashing out on cyrpto? No way Jose.

What is my goal? To have the cyrpto(s) of the future ( Sorry, I dont think it will be bitcoin ). I would like to have as many cyrpto as possible while the price is low. I would like to be able to go on amazon and use my xyz cyrpto to buy a TV ie.

I would like to use my xyz cyrpto to pay bills or book a vacation.

Right now the use is very limited, but give it some time many people will start accepting it and the value of the cyrpto will rise.

100% correct this man

 

its usually just the old guys that cant change. old people are the hardest to change their ideas, lifestyle or way of mind. just like politics. all old guys refusing to advance and get with the times (except canada)

[Skeptic7]

5 hours ago, Jabers said:

 

yes pops, as i said.... only up

 

 

if you would of bought that day you made an embarrassing comment, you would of made 150,000 baht.

 

not bad in less then 2 weeks huh?

 

or maybe you are happy with the 150 baht made from government savings ?

You got that straight Son!...hindsight is always crystal clear...like how's the old saying go...20-20? Just like your crystal ball, it seems. As for your example above...it's a bit disingenuous as anyone could cherry pick a chart recently (or anytime) to show a dramatic and "embarrassing" move down too. Even more sketchy is how you remarked that it was unfair, shortsighted and "ridiculous" of me to post a 1-month chart last month...then you go on to post a 12 day chart to prove your point.  The ol' hindsight adage comes to mind...again. But I digress...

 

TRUCE! 

 

Hey...good on ya if you've made bank in such a volatile and unstable instrument.   To be crystal clear...I have nothing against cryptos. Find them fascinating and think they have a real and more defined place in the future. No denying that the overall performance has been nothing short of spectacular. May even dip my foot in and test the waters sometime...though not just now, as the volatility is a bit extreme for someone of my advanced (555) age! My argument is that they seem a bit rich and also fit the definition of an investment "bubble" precisely.  

 

Time for a nap.  

Mine on and best wishes...

Edited February 22, 2018 by Skeptic7

[Jabers]

14 hours ago, Skeptic7 said:

You got that straight Son!...hindsight is always crystal clear...like how's the old saying go...20-20? Just like your crystal ball, it seems. As for your example above...it's a bit disingenuous as anyone could cherry pick a chart recently (or anytime) to show a dramatic and "embarrassing" move down too. Even more sketchy is how you remarked that it was unfair, shortsighted and "ridiculous" of me to post a 1-month chart last month...then you go on to post a 12 day chart to prove your point.  The ol' hindsight adage comes to mind...again. But I digress...

 

TRUCE! 

 

Hey...good on ya if you've made bank in such a volatile and unstable instrument.   To be crystal clear...I have nothing against cryptos. Find them fascinating and think they have a real and more defined place in the future. No denying that the overall performance has been nothing short of spectacular. May even dip my foot in and test the waters sometime...though not just now, as the volatility is a bit extreme for someone of my advanced (555) age! My argument is that they seem a bit rich and also fit the definition of an investment "bubble" precisely.  

 

Time for a nap.  

Mine on and best wishes...

oh boy.....

(opps i mean, oh old man)....

 

you clearly dont understand the irony of what i did. it was to prove anyone can take a random amount of time and post it and say they are right.

 

i did what you did. but i guess you dont understand.

 

 

[speedtripler]

If you stayed clear of bubbles, you would have to avoid investing in stocks, bonds, gold and the currently overpriced property market...... Not. Only. Cryptocurrencys.... 

 

There are no certaintys and no investment  instruments  worth doing with 0.0% risk,  in my view the risk/ reward ratio in crypto is higher than anything else and therfore worth  the risk but as always, stay well diversified in a broad group of asset classes

[chingching]

"You got that straight Son!...hindsight is always crystal clear...like how's the old saying go...20-20? Just like your crystal ball, it seems. As for your example above...it's a bit disingenuous as anyone could cherry pick a chart recently (or anytime) to show a dramatic and "embarrassing" move down too. Even more sketchy is how you remarked that it was unfair, shortsighted and "ridiculous" of me to post a 1-month chart last month...then you go on to post a 12 day chart to prove your point.  The ol' hindsight adage comes to mind...again. But I digress."

IT seems to me, you are the one cherry picking  dates,  But let's use real numbers.  I will pick an arbitrary date of January 1, 2013.  Thats 1879 days ago.  Bitcoin now (as I write this)  is $9837.00  So if you had bought bitcoin at any time between jan 1, 2013 to  about Nov 30, 2017,  and held you would be making money.   That's 1794 days out of 1879 days , or 95% of the days,    After Nov 30 some days you'd be losing a lot, other days you'd still be ahead,  so on better than 95% of the time a "cherry picked" day is a winner.

[speedtripler]

26 minutes ago, chingching said:

"You got that straight Son!...hindsight is always crystal clear...like how's the old saying go...20-20? Just like your crystal ball, it seems. As for your example above...it's a bit disingenuous as anyone could cherry pick a chart recently (or anytime) to show a dramatic and "embarrassing" move down too. Even more sketchy is how you remarked that it was unfair, shortsighted and "ridiculous" of me to post a 1-month chart last month...then you go on to post a 12 day chart to prove your point.  The ol' hindsight adage comes to mind...again. But I digress."

IT seems to me, you are the one cherry picking  dates,  But let's use real numbers.  I will pick an arbitrary date of January 1, 2013.  Thats 1879 days ago.  Bitcoin now (as I write this)  is $9837.00  So if you had bought bitcoin at any time between jan 1, 2013 to  about Nov 30, 2017,  and held you would be making money.   That's 1794 days out of 1879 days , or 95% of the days,    After Nov 30 some days you'd be losing a lot, other days you'd still be ahead,  so on better than 95% of the time a "cherry picked" day is a winner.

You could also count From 2009-2013 onwards so the number of positive days to buy it would actually be even higher than 95% and I predict in the next economic crisis  (coming soon apparently) more people will run into cryptos and maybe gold as a "safe haven" when the sky comes crashing down on stocks etc 

 

It matters less what the outgoing  generation don't like than what the upcoming  generation DO like and 2/3 of millennials surveyed would rather invest in cryptocurrency than stocks and they distrust banks and financial institutions (deservedly so) after witnessing  2008

 

 

 

[Meljames]

On 2/21/2018 at 1:34 PM, sanemax said:

Although it you would have invested 600 000 Baht in a B/C two months ago, you would have lost 3-400 000 Baht

 

 

If you were dumb enough to sell it. 

[poanoi]

by the time i find out about a ponzi scheme like this,

its too late to join to make a buck on the last stragglers,

cause i am always one of the last stragglers

[phycokiller]

4 hours ago, poanoi said:

by the time i find out about a ponzi scheme like this,

its too late to join to make a buck on the last stragglers,

cause i am always one of the last stragglers

take a look at the bitcoin log chart, could get a bit slow for a while, maybe even drop more, but theres no sign of it ending and its still the best investment going

[janclaes47]

On 04/02/2018 at 3:51 PM, speedtripler said:

Btc 22k in March 

Bookmark it! 

Which year?

[Jabers]

On 3/15/2018 at 11:17 PM, janclaes47 said:

Which year?

lol.

 

his time is running out.

 

will it go 3x in 8 days? doubt it

 

he must of meant the year 2020

[Skeptic7]

On 2/4/2018 at 3:51 PM, speedtripler said:

Btc 22k in March 

Bookmark it! 

 

On 3/23/2018 at 1:19 PM, Jabers said:

lol.

 

his time is running out.

 

will it go 3x in 8 days? doubt it

 

he must of meant the year 2020

Nope, he insisted everybody "bookmark it" for this month (March 2018)...same as you declared "only up" for cryptos on 3 Feb. Pretty much been only down since those bits of soothsaying. 

 

In any event...March isn't quite over yet and "only up" obviously LOL wasn't meant to include the nearly 2 months since that brash & brazen call. Even given the undeserved benefit of the doubt, both these "expert" calls could certainly have been even worse...but not by much! 

 

Since these 2  prognostications, Bitcoin is down approx 25% with others down even more...some considerably more. That puts the first poster quoted above off by $15,000+ (about 65% off) from his $22,000 March call and the 2nd quoted poster conservatively DOWN at least 25% on his "only up" crypto call of 3 Feb. (Post #103)

 

Absolutely almost ASTOUNDING how the self-anointed TV cryptokid "authorities" got it all so well nearly figured out. In other words...not any more than the rest of us! 

[Naam]

On 2/26/2018 at 10:04 AM, phycokiller said:

take a look at the bitcoin log chart, could get a bit slow for a while, maybe even drop more, but theres no sign of it ending and its still the best investment going

i wonder what you call a bad investment 

[phycokiller]

1 hour ago, Naam said:

i wonder what you call a bad investment 

maybe one that hasnt had 600% growth the last year

[Naam]

8 hours ago, phycokiller said:

maybe one that hasnt had 600% growth the last year

past performance is water under the bridge. get an opinion from the poor buggers who shelled out $19,000 ~3 months ago and we can talk again.

[sanemax]

On 2/23/2018 at 6:54 PM, Meljames said:

If you were dumb enough to sell it. 

I wasnt "dumb enough" to buy it in the first place

[Jabers]

On 3/30/2018 at 11:00 AM, Skeptic7 said:

 

Nope, he insisted everybody "bookmark it" for this month (March 2018)...same as you declared "only up" for cryptos on 3 Feb. Pretty much been only down since those bits of soothsaying. 

 

In any event...March isn't quite over yet and "only up" obviously LOL wasn't meant to include the nearly 2 months since that brash & brazen call. Even given the undeserved benefit of the doubt, both these "expert" calls could certainly have been even worse...but not by much! 

 

Since these 2  prognostications, Bitcoin is down approx 25% with others down even more...some considerably more. That puts the first poster quoted above off by $15,000+ (about 65% off) from his $22,000 March call and the 2nd quoted poster conservatively DOWN at least 25% on his "only up" crypto call of 3 Feb. (Post #103)

 

Absolutely almost ASTOUNDING how the self-anointed TV cryptokid "authorities" got it all so well nearly figured out. In other words...not any more than the rest of us! 

 

well clearly you are an <deleted> trying to seem so high and mighty and talk down to everyone who ever said anything because you stood and hid on the sidelines like a scared little baby not saying anything and just waiting for your time to jump in and act so special.

 

then you come on here and be rude to everyone to make yourself feel better (what a sad life you must live)

 

not 1 person on here claimed to be an 'expert' as you are acting like they did.

 

want me to dig through you history comments and point out all the wrong things you have said and try to make myself feel better for it as you seem to do?

 

dont worry, i will be back in a few months to do the exact same thing to you when its up again :)

 

 

EDIT:

ahhhh, but now i see your history and you are american..... that explains the arrogance.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 31, 2018 by Jabers

[Skeptic7]

4 hours ago, Jabers said:

 

well clearly you are an <deleted> trying to seem so high and mighty and talk down to everyone who ever said anything because you stood and hid on the sidelines like a scared little baby not saying anything and just waiting for your time to jump in and act so special.

 

then you come on here and be rude to everyone to make yourself feel better (what a sad life you must live)

 

not 1 person on here claimed to be an 'expert' as you are acting like they did.

 

want me to dig through you history comments and point out all the wrong things you have said and try to make myself feel better for it as you seem to do?

 

dont worry, i will be back in a few months to do the exact same thing to you when its up again :)

 

EDIT:

ahhhh, but now i see your history and you are american..... that explains the arrogance.

 

   

 

So when presented with facts about actual quotes about specific claims that turn out to be...to put it mildly...wrong...

 

...sorry u find that so American (rude, arrogant and mean spirited). Waaaa waaa waaa. Sometimes the truth hurts. And being wrong sux. 

 

"only up" means ONLY UP

- AND -

"bookmark it. Btc 22k by March" means just that. 

 

And it's blatantly obvious why the post was held off until the end of March. Sad that something so blatantly obvious needs an explanation...but there was a timeframe set and it was THE END OF MARCH. 

 

As for being wrong...yes, everyone has been. The difference 'tween us is when I'm shown to be wrong...I man up and acknowledge it...not just get defensive, double down, rationalize and point fingers. 

 

Thx 4 the awesome suggestion, considering changing my handle to AnotherArrogantAmerican! 

Edited March 31, 2018 by Skeptic7

[Skeptic7]

On 2/22/2018 at 2:12 PM, Jabers said:

 

yes pops, as i said.... only up

 

 

if you would of bought that day you made an embarrassing comment, you would of made 150,000 baht.

 

not bad in less then 2 weeks huh?

 

or maybe you are happy with the 150 baht made from government savings ?

 

On 2/22/2018 at 7:41 PM, Skeptic7 said:

You got that straight Son!...hindsight is always crystal clear...like how's the old saying go...20-20? Just like your crystal ball, it seems. As for your example above...it's a bit disingenuous as anyone could cherry pick a chart recently (or anytime) to show a dramatic and "embarrassing" move down too. Even more sketchy is how you remarked that it was unfair, shortsighted and "ridiculous" of me to post a 1-month chart last month...then you go on to post a 12 day chart to prove your point.  The ol' hindsight adage comes to mind...again. But I digress...

 

TRUCE! 

 

Hey...good on ya if you've made bank in such a volatile and unstable instrument.   To be crystal clear...I have nothing against cryptos. Find them fascinating and think they have a real and more defined place in the future. No denying that the overall performance has been nothing short of spectacular. May even dip my foot in and test the waters sometime...though not just now, as the volatility is a bit extreme for someone of my advanced (555) age! My argument is that they seem a bit rich and also fit the definition of an investment "bubble" precisely.  

 

Time for a nap.  

Mine on and best wishes...

 

On 2/23/2018 at 10:09 AM, Jabers said:

oh boy.....

(opps i mean, oh old man)....

 

you clearly dont understand the irony of what i did. it was to prove anyone can take a random amount of time and post it and say they are right.

 

i did what you did. but i guess you dont understand.

 

 

Getting old having  to use ur own quotes against u once again. Disrespectful, name calling and condescending they are. Not to mention u reiterated "only up"! 

Then...

I specifically waved a white flag and called a truce, congratulated u on ur gains, said I had nothing against cryptos and would even consider investing, poked fun at myself...and signed off wishing u the best.

 

Your reply (directly above) disregarded the good will and focused on being snide and dismissive. Speaks volumes...

 

AAA

[phycokiller]

On 3/30/2018 at 9:30 PM, Naam said:

past performance is water under the bridge. get an opinion from the poor buggers who shelled out $19,000 ~3 months ago and we can talk again.

past performance is what people base their decisions on, theres not much else to go on, and its not like this is the only bubble bitcoin has had

[Naam]

1 hour ago, phycokiller said:

past performance is what people base their decisions on, theres not much else to go on, and its not like this is the only bubble bitcoin has had

please replace the word "people" with "amateurs".

[Langsuan Man]

3 hours ago, phycokiller said:

past performance is what people base their decisions on, theres not much else to go on, and its not like this is the only bubble bitcoin has had

What about common sense

 

You have a currency that is literally made out of thin air (data mining / block chain) and is valued  based upon what other investors are willing to pay for it and past performance is just reporting what other "amateurs" were willing to pay for it at a certain point in time