UK wins Brexit transition deal in return for Irish vow

[samran]

8 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

London to a brick that, once all the politicking is done, ROI and the EU will accept a semi-soft border with camera and computer monitoring of traffic in exchange for some minor political concessions related to the north. The fact that the DUP has been so quiet lately, coupled with the relevant UK trade departments working quietly with the relevant logistics and transport businesses, indicates that the framework is already being put in place

 

Realpolitik here for a second. 

 

The trump card here is Ireland’s veto rights for any trade deal.

 

Brexit will create difficulties for them so you think they are going to do the UK any favours?

 

One of the key planks of the peace process was that the republic gave up claims to the northern counties in their constitution.

 

In return, anyone born on the Ireland of Ireland was deemed to be an Irish citizen and the check points put up during the troubles went down.

 

In the context of the EU, the republic effectively got a Clayton’s reunification in practice if not on paper.

 

so you think they are going to walk back from this position? Common sense logistics questions aside (it will be a complex nightmare to try and set up a ‘soft border’), nationalists north of the border won’t stand for it. 

 

South of the border, the ROI have the opportunity via their veto to simply wedge the British even more they could have hoped for during the peace process negotiations - the north stays in he same regulatory framework as the south, and an effective border now lies in the Irish Sea. 

 

And the great thing is, Ireland has the power to get this, if the English want to have any chance to get their precious post brexit trade deal. 

 

 

Edited March 23, 2018 by samran

[tebee]

46 minutes ago, RuamRudy said:

There are over 200 border crossing points - will they all be equipped with the necessary monitoring equipment or will some crossings require to be closed?

How do we prevent the influx of East Europeans from crossing the border if the cameras are only focused on the vehice registration details?

There is 275 I believe

 

So each will need 2 cameras @ say £20,000 (one for each direction)   £ 11 million

28 people to watch the cameras at all times - assuming one person can oversee 20 cameras at once  - just over 100 salaries to do this 24/7 

 

It ain't going to be cheap  and won't doo a very effective  job 

[samran]

6 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

You forgot to provide a reason why the IRA would blow the border crossings up.

Their goal is a United ireland. Anything which reversed the status quo they’ll oppose, just like the welcome to NI signs that went up a few years ago and immediately got vandalised. 

 

 

[samran]

1 hour ago, RuamRudy said:

There are over 200 border crossing points - will they all be equipped with the necessary monitoring equipment or will some crossings require to be closed?

How do we prevent the influx of East Europeans from crossing the border if the cameras are only focused on the vehice registration details?

You won’t. The UK and Ireland are part of the common travel area which predates the EU. That remains after brexit.

 

As a non eu National I’ve always been able to move back and forth freely between the two whether by plane boat or land. 

 

What makes you think they’ll put immigration posts now? The real issue is customs checks, which if anyone used a tad of common sense, would happen if goods crossed the Irish Sea. 

[tebee]

38 minutes ago, samran said:

 

Realpolitik here for a second. 

 

The trump card here is Ireland’s veto rights for any trade deal.

 

Brexit will create difficulties for them so you think they are going to do the UK any favours?

 

One of the key planks of the peace process was that the republic gave up claims to the northern counties in their constitution.

 

In return, anyone born on the Ireland of Ireland was deemed to be an Irish citizen and the check points put up during the troubles went down.

 

In the context of the EU, the republic effectively got a Clayton’s reunification in practice if not on paper.

 

so you think they are going to walk back from this position? Common sense logistics questions aside (it will be a complex nightmare to try and set up a ‘soft border’), nationalists north of the border won’t stand for it. 

 

South of the border, the ROI have the opportunity via their veto to simply wedge the British even more they could have hoped for during the peace process negotiations - the north stays in he same regulatory framework as the south, and an effective border now lies in the Irish Sea. 

 

And the great thing is, Ireland has the power to get this, if the English want to have any chance to get their precious post brexit trade deal. 

 

 

For the first time since it was formed the Republic has more power and influence than the UK - that is the dividend Brexit has bought us. Does anyone think they will let this opportunity go to waste ? 

 

They can force the UK into a hard chaotic Brexit.  Yes it will harm them immensely too, but they have the EU to help them afterwards. If anyone doesn't think  that sort of Brexit will be a financial and social disaster  then they haven't thought it through. 

 

UK will throw the unionists under a bus.

 

[Orac]

For the first time since it was formed the Republic has more power and influence than the UK - that is the dividend Brexit has bought us. Does anyone think they will let this opportunity go to waste ? 
 
They can force the UK into a hard chaotic Brexit.  Yes it will harm them immensely too, but they have the EU to help them afterwards. If anyone doesn't think  that sort of Brexit will be a financial and social disaster  then they haven't thought it through. 
 
UK will throw the unionists under a bus.
 

TM can’t afford to throw the unionists under a bus since she needs the confidence and supply deal to have a majority in Parliament. This is the sort of problem you get when you are reliant on a bunch of religious nutjobs to keep your job.

There seems to be agreement between both the EU and Westminster about maintaining the Good Friday Agreement yet the party that would not agree to it and campaigned against it have the UK govt over a barrel.


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[samran]

9 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

TM can’t afford to throw the unionists under a bus since she needs the confidence and supply deal to have a majority in Parliament. This is the sort of problem you get when you are reliant on a bunch of religious nutjobs to keep your job.

There seems to be agreement between both the EU and Westminster about maintaining the Good Friday Agreement yet the party that would not agree to it and campaigned against it have the UK govt over a barrel.


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Who are the unionists going to support instead, Labour? 5555

 

they are screwed.

[tebee]

31 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

TM can’t afford to throw the unionists under a bus since she needs the confidence and supply deal to have a majority in Parliament. This is the sort of problem you get when you are reliant on a bunch of religious nutjobs to keep your job.

There seems to be agreement between both the EU and Westminster about maintaining the Good Friday Agreement yet the party that would not agree to it and campaigned against it have the UK govt over a barrel.


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These are extraordinary times - who knows what new alliances might  get formed. If a united Ireland was on offer maybe even Sinn Fein might take their seats and support the Conservatives!

 

Of course if the act formerly known as  the great repeal bill  gets past would they even have to worry about a parliamentary majority? They would be able to do  things by ministerial edict . 

[Orac]

These are extraordinary times - who knows what new alliances might  get formed. If a united Ireland was on offer maybe even Sinn Fein might take their seats and support the Conservatives!

 

Of course if the act formerly known as  the great repeal bill  gets past would they even have to worry about a parliamentary majority? They would be able to do  things by ministerial edict . 

 

Neither side (on the simplistic assumption there are two sides) would want Sinn Fein MPs showing up in Westminster - they would never back TM anyway and, for those on the side of ‘Customs Union’ or another referendum they would lose the potential support of those Torres opposed to a hard brexit who would not walk through the same lobby as SF as a matter of principal.

 

 

As far as the Great Repeal Bill is concerned, there is still a lot of debating to do and many amendments and legal challenges in progress and I would be very surprised if the govt is able to override parliamentary sovereignty using it.

 

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[Orac]

Duplicate

[citybiker]

For the first time since it was formed the Republic has more power and influence than the UK - that is the dividend Brexit has bought us. Does anyone think they will let this opportunity go to waste ? 
 
They can force the UK into a hard chaotic Brexit.  Yes it will harm them immensely too, but they have the EU to help them afterwards. If anyone doesn't think  that sort of Brexit will be a financial and social disaster  then they haven't thought it through. 
 
UK will throw the unionists under a bus.
 

RoI force the U.K. into a hard Brexit?

RoI has more influence & power than the U.K.?

That’s an interesting analysis if ever I’ve seen one, IIRC it was the DUP that scuppered TM’s last deal attempt with the EU.

Do I think the ROI will take advantage at the slightest opportunity, of course.

Financial & social disaster, project fear raising its pesky head yet again I see.


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[Khun Han]

3 hours ago, samran said:

 

Realpolitik here for a second. 

 

The trump card here is Ireland’s veto rights for any trade deal.

 

Brexit will create difficulties for them so you think they are going to do the UK any favours?

 

One of the key planks of the peace process was that the republic gave up claims to the northern counties in their constitution.

 

In return, anyone born on the Ireland of Ireland was deemed to be an Irish citizen and the check points put up during the troubles went down.

 

In the context of the EU, the republic effectively got a Clayton’s reunification in practice if not on paper.

 

so you think they are going to walk back from this position? Common sense logistics questions aside (it will be a complex nightmare to try and set up a ‘soft border’), nationalists north of the border won’t stand for it. 

 

South of the border, the ROI have the opportunity via their veto to simply wedge the British even more they could have hoped for during the peace process negotiations - the north stays in he same regulatory framework as the south, and an effective border now lies in the Irish Sea. 

 

And the great thing is, Ireland has the power to get this, if the English want to have any chance to get their precious post brexit trade deal. 

 

 

 

Your post would make sense except for the simple fact that if ROI vetoes, it cuts it's own throat. ROI is bluffing.

[Khun Han]

3 hours ago, samran said:

Their goal is a United ireland. Anything which reversed the status quo they’ll oppose, just like the welcome to NI signs that went up a few years ago and immediately got vandalised. 

 

 

 

But the IRA's real position on the old border was that it was a huge money spinner for them.

[nontabury]

6 hours ago, samran said:

 

Realpolitik here for a second. 

 

The trump card here is Ireland’s veto rights for any trade deal.

 

Brexit will create difficulties for them so you think they are going to do the UK any favours?

 

One of the key planks of the peace process was that the republic gave up claims to the northern counties in their constitution.

 

In return, anyone born on the Ireland of Ireland was deemed to be an Irish citizen and the check points put up during the troubles went down.

 

In the context of the EU, the republic effectively got a Clayton’s reunification in practice if not on paper.

 

so you think they are going to walk back from this position? Common sense logistics questions aside (it will be a complex nightmare to try and set up a ‘soft border’), nationalists north of the border won’t stand for it. 

 

South of the border, the ROI have the opportunity via their veto to simply wedge the British even more they could have hoped for during the peace process negotiations - the north stays in he same regulatory framework as the south, and an effective border now lies in the Irish Sea. 

 

And the great thing is, Ireland has the power to get this, if the English want to have any chance to get their precious post brexit trade deal. 

 

 

There is already a soft boarder between the Republic and Ulster, in many aspects, VAT being one. Accepted by both sides. This of course will not stop the remoaners from creating scare stories in the hope it will prevent the Wishes of the British electorate.

Hopefully after Brexit we will make more trade deals within the  Commonwealth, and that of course will include Australia.

And yes I know, I put my hand up, I was conned into voting to join the EEC in 1975, at the cost of cutting trade ties with your country, my deepest apologies.

 

 

Edited March 23, 2018 by nontabury

[samran]

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

Your post would make sense except for the simple fact that if ROI vetoes, it cuts it's own throat. ROI is bluffing.

Let’s examine each countries respective starting negotiation positions.

 

ROI - will have still have access to the customs union and the broader EU. No problems with trade there. They’ll also be able to export their goods and services to the UK with minimum disruption (see further down)

 

Irish will still be free to live and work in the UK via agreements which predate the EU and allow the common travel area. So also no issues there. 

 

And of course they can veto any trade deal.

 

United Kingdom: They are about to get a harsh lesson in the Ricardian economics of free trade. As a small open economy it will make no sense for them to put up trade barriers, and their Boffins at HM treasury will see to that. 

 

So Irish and EU products will still have easy access to the UK. 

 

The EU on the other hand has all sorts of tariffs and other unfair barriers that face everyone outside of the EU. The UK is going to have to get used to selling less to the EU them and are not going to get anywhere near they have the access now via a new ‘free trade agreement’.

 

Most FTAs in the world are anything but free, take years to negotiate. Any chance that the UK will get anything to replace their current trade in he EU will take 15-20 years at best (Australia has been negotiating with the EU for 8 years and counting - and the final text is still underwhelming). 

 

 

So ireland has all the cards and the British have very few. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Khun Han said:

 

But the IRA's real position on the old border was that it was a huge money spinner for them.

Maybe for a few tag taggers, but the real game is in parliament - political power north and south of the border beats the comparative pennies one gets from running some petrol across the border 

[Khun Han]

17 minutes ago, samran said:

Let’s examine each countries respective starting negotiation positions.

 

ROI - will have still have access to the customs union and the broader EU. No problems with trade there. They’ll also be able to export their goods and services to the UK with minimum disruption (see further down)

 

Irish will still be free to live and work in the UK via agreements which predate the EU and allow the common travel area. So also no issues there. 

 

And of course they can veto any trade deal.

 

United Kingdom: They are about to get a harsh lesson in the Ricardian economics of free trade. As a small open economy it will make no sense for them to put up trade barriers, and their Boffins at HM treasury will see to that. 

 

So Irish and EU products will still have easy access to the UK. 

 

The EU on the other hand has all sorts of tariffs and other unfair barriers that face everyone outside of the EU. The UK is going to have to get used to selling less to the EU them and are not going to get anywhere near they have the access now via a new ‘free trade agreement’.

 

Most FTAs in the world are anything but free, take years to negotiate. Any chance that the UK will get anything to replace their current trade in he EU will take 15-20 years at best (Australia has been negotiating with the EU for 8 years and counting - and the final text is still underwhelming). 

 

 

So ireland has all the cards and the British have very few. 

 

 

Maybe for a few tag taggers, but the real game is in parliament - political power north and south of the border beats the comparative pennies one gets from running some petrol across the border 

 

Ireland most definitely doesn't]/i] hold all the cards. If it's trade with the UK is restricted, it's in serious trouble.

 

Anyway, didn't you see the news a week-or-two ago about the UK government quietly working with the affected logistics and transport companies, to put together a database of their operations?

[samran]

17 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

Ireland most definitely doesn't]/i] hold all the cards. If it's trade with the UK is restricted, it's in serious trouble.

 

Anyway, didn't you see the news a week-or-two ago about the UK government quietly working with the affected logistics and transport companies, to put together a database of their operations?

I admire your optimism, I really do. But a border of any sort between the north and the south, is a non-starter.

 

- If the UK (stupidly) decided to put up trade barriers, then not only would UK consumers lose out through higher prices, other countries who they already trade with outside the EU who send their stuff there will retaliate.

 

- Nevertheless, if they do, Ireland will be able to shift its trade focus to the EU instead. Its got the market of 400m++ people to turn to. Adjustment yes, massive pain, unlikely.

 

- The reverse? The UK will be outside the trading block. You just don't conjure up a trade deal over night to replace it. Joining the EU means one in, all in - proper free trade.

 

You want a selective trade deal with the EU, then each and every one of the 27 countries, is going to have their say.

 

You want your fishing grounds back? Well the Belgians will block British beer, the dutch will have issues with cheese and milk. The Italians will have issues with your tomatoes (even though you probably don't sell much to them), and the Romanians will have issues with your Morris dancers - just for the hell of it.

 

You want to have access to EU airspace as a local player? Well the French will laugh at you, and the Austrians will take issue with your pork.

 

Banking access? Well the Germans will just say, Nein, thanks for brexit old chaps, we will bring it all to Frankfurt.

 

On and on it will go. Not one year in the transition. Not even 2 years extra which has just been agreed to. Think 5-10 years a minimum.

 

And don't think they are going to give you the luxury for very long of negotiating it while you are still half in the trade tent pissing in.

 

Oh yeah, and Ireland have a veto....

[samran]

1 hour ago, nontabury said:

There is already a soft boarder between the Republic and Ulster, in many aspects, VAT being one. Accepted by both sides. This of course will not stop the remoaners from creating scare stories in the hope it will prevent the Wishes of the British electorate.

Hopefully after Brexit we will make more trade deals within the  Commonwealth, and that of course will include Australia.

And yes I know, I put my hand up, I was conned into voting to join the EEC in 1975, at the cost of cutting trade ties with your country, my deepest apologies.

 

 

 

While I must admit wanting to punch someone each time I line up in the 'others' line at Heathrow, temporarily becoming a monarchist wishing that ole betty would turn up and waive me and my fellow aussies magically though, the fact is the UK did the right thing.

 

You farked us over in 1972, and I will never forgive you for that (smiley faces), but we turned our trade towards Asia as a result and are the better for it. You trade with your neighbours.

 

And just us you farked over the Australian grain growers, Kiwi lamb and butter producers, and Canadian steel exporters, you will fark over the DUP when the time comes.

 

In terms of FTA's, I very much look forward to it. Australia and NZ will be first cabs off the rank. We are already teaming up to deal with you two on one. Trade wise, your pollies will drop your pants and bend over for us, just so they can run around with clenched butt cheeks proclaiming an FTA - "See!!!" they'll say, "Brexit was worth it".

 

You get to swap a market of 400million for a market of 23 million. Congrats in advance on that.

 

I will look forward however to being able to spending more time in the home counties with my wife during the summers in my older years without some dour IO questioning my right to be there. Maybe you'll even finally build a special queue for us at Heathrow too....

 

FTA's with the US, China, India? As we say in Thailand 55555.

 

You might sign a document saying FTA...but it will be nothing of the sort. And they too will want their pound of flesh...

Edited March 23, 2018 by samran

[nontabury]

9 minutes ago, samran said:

While I must admit wanting to punch someone each time I line up in the 'others' line at Heathrow, temporarily becoming a monarchist wishing that ole betty would turn up and waive me and my fellow aussies magically though, the fact is the UK did the right thing.

 

You farked us over in 1972, and I will never forgive you for that (smiley faces), but we turned our trade towards Asia as a result and are the better for it. You trade with your neighbours.

 

And just us you farked over the Australian grain growers, Kiwi lamb and butter producers, and Canadian steel exporters, you will fark over the DUP when the time comes.

 

In terms of FTA's, I very much look forward to it. Australia and NZ will be first cabs off the rank. We are already teaming up to deal with you two on one. Trade wise, your pollies will drop your pants and bend over for us, just so they can run around with clenched butt cheeks proclaiming an FTA - "See!!!" they'll say, "Brexit was worth it".

 

You get to swap a market of 400million for a market of 23 million. Congrats in advance on that.

 

I will look forward however to being able to spending more time in the home counties with my wife during the summers in my older years without some dour IO questioning my right to be there. Maybe you'll even finally build a special queue for us at Heathrow too....

 

FTA's with the US, China, India? As we say in Thailand 55555.

 

You might sign a document saying FTA...but it will be nothing of the sort. And they too will want their pound of flesh...

A pound of flesh, no problem, far better than the Tonns  of flesh we our now paying into the E.U. You are of course in a minority, in being one of the few non Brits on these threads who is not a E.u. citizens. They are also upset and very concerned at the prospect of losing our charitable contributions, that help to prop up this ailing so called union. The iceing on the cake is when our laws will be made by our democratically elected representatives, sitting in Westminster, and interpreated in our own courts, not by a group of non elected bully boy Bureaucrats in Brussels.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Khun Han]

1 hour ago, samran said:

I admire your optimism, I really do. But a border of any sort between the north and the south, is a non-starter.

 

- If the UK (stupidly) decided to put up trade barriers, then not only would UK consumers lose out through higher prices, other countries who they already trade with outside the EU who send their stuff there will retaliate.

 

- Nevertheless, if they do, Ireland will be able to shift its trade focus to the EU instead. Its got the market of 400m++ people to turn to. Adjustment yes, massive pain, unlikely.

 

- The reverse? The UK will be outside the trading block. You just don't conjure up a trade deal over night to replace it. Joining the EU means one in, all in - proper free trade.

 

You want a selective trade deal with the EU, then each and every one of the 27 countries, is going to have their say.

 

You want your fishing grounds back? Well the Belgians will block British beer, the dutch will have issues with cheese and milk. The Italians will have issues with your tomatoes (even though you probably don't sell much to them), and the Romanians will have issues with your Morris dancers - just for the hell of it.

 

You want to have access to EU airspace as a local player? Well the French will laugh at you, and the Austrians will take issue with your pork.

 

Banking access? Well the Germans will just say, Nein, thanks for brexit old chaps, we will bring it all to Frankfurt.

 

On and on it will go. Not one year in the transition. Not even 2 years extra which has just been agreed to. Think 5-10 years a minimum.

 

And don't think they are going to give you the luxury for very long of negotiating it while you are still half in the trade tent pissing in.

 

Oh yeah, and Ireland have a veto....

 

You're being silly. Ireland won't adjust easily to a complete change in it's trading practices. It would be an economic catastrophe, the 'cliff edge' that remainers like to use to describe brexit.

 

As for all the other stuff, trade wars, yeah.....right. All will be subject to negotiation. And how do you think Spain, Portugal and Greece would react to a flight embargo?

[samran]

19 minutes ago, Khun Han said:

 

You're being silly. Ireland won't adjust easily to a complete change in it's trading practices. It would be an economic catastrophe, the 'cliff edge' that remainers like to use to describe brexit.

 

As for all the other stuff, trade wars, yeah.....right. All will be subject to negotiation. And how do you think Spain, Portugal and Greece would react to a flight embargo?

Coming from a country which has to make its own way in the world trade wise, and having friends who do negotiate these things for a living (and on occasion getting involved in submissions myself), I'm not far off.

 

I have no idea what will be on the table - I was just trying to be illustrative in a light hearted way,  but as you say, it is all up for negotiations. But they will long, protracted, and at times positively absurd.

 

The current Australia - EU 'Free' Trade agreement is being held hostage to a bunch of Italian tomato farmers. I kid you not.

 

The Canada -EU 'Free' Trade agreement was held hostage, after 8 years, by a bunch of malcontents in Wallonia, at the last minute. Over what, I can't even remember.

 

And after all of that, you won't have anything near what you have now. Just saying.

 

At least the Irish will be able to switch their trade focus in a frictionless manner to the rest of the EU.

 

The brits will be facing trade land mines wherever you go... 

 

But you voted for it, so off you go.

 

Edited March 23, 2018 by samran

[nontabury]

On 23/03/2018 at 12:01 PM, samran said:

While I must admit wanting to punch someone each time I line up in the 'others' line at Heathrow, temporarily becoming a monarchist wishing that ole betty would turn up and waive me and my fellow aussies magically though, the fact is the UK did the right thing.

 

You farked us over in 1972, and I will never forgive you for that (smiley faces), but we turned our trade towards Asia as a result and are the better for it. You trade with your neighbours.

 

And just us you farked over the Australian grain growers, Kiwi lamb and butter producers, and Canadian steel exporters, you will fark over the DUP when the time comes.

 

I’ve already apologized for my part in the 1975 referendum, as I said, I did it in complete ignorance, as we were told a pack of lies by Edward Heath and friends, and unfortunately, at that time we did not have the benifit of Google. But now we do,and we are using it.

  Yes,like you I have travelled through Heathrow over the last 30+ yrs, and I also thought, many times while standing in the passport queue,that  it was a disgrace that our commonwealth friends were treated in such a manner. While I could quite easily be queuing behind a IRA supporter from the rep of Ireland.