59 minutes ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

I'll stick my house on a Thaksin affiliated party victory.

 

There's no electable alternative. The NE is secure for them already and I would bet there's simmering discontent towards the current regime which will be represented by widespread support for the last properly elected governments this country has had.

 

Dems are a spent force and still hated/unelectable in the North and NE.

I hope so, but i'm not so sure with this senate thing and the army already having a block of votes before it's even all started. It could end up with no clear winner and a confederation of smaller parties joining together to form a coalition. Could be messy. But that's what Mr P is hoping for.

Just now, thaiguzzi said:

I hope so, but i'm not so sure with this senate thing and the army already having a block of votes before it's even all started. It could end up with no clear winner and a confederation of smaller parties joining together to form a coalition. Could be messy. But that's what Mr P is hoping for.

I just cannot imagine - hard as I try - Prayut handing over the reins of power to Pheua Thai or a similar Thaksin-linked party after an 'election' (which will be all stitched up in the junta mob's favour, anyway). Prayut and his crowd will do everything possible and everything imaginable to stop that from happening (and of course, decency, right and wrong, justice, democracy, and morality will not enter into their calculations and actions one whit ...).

47 minutes ago, Eligius said:

I just cannot imagine - hard as I try - Prayut handing over the reins of power to Pheua Thai or a similar Thaksin-linked party after an 'election' (which will be all stitched up in the junta mob's favour, anyway). Prayut and his crowd will do everything possible and everything imaginable to stop that from happening (and of course, decency, right and wrong, justice, democracy, and morality will not enter into their calculations and actions one whit ...).

I think it would be difficult to find anyone to argue with your post. Of course the cheating cheater(s) will try to cheat, that is what cheaters do; the man launched a coup and it is hard to cheat more than that in politics.

 

However, I think it'll all come down to what the Thai people accept and what they consider legitimate. If it seems like the 'Reds' or any other non/anti military party or parties win cleanly, I think the Thai people will demand that they be given power and they will get it. It is really, really difficult for people to rule others if the belief is that it is illegitimate. 

 

And, at the risk of sounding like a broken record on this forum, the parties NEED to start speaking daily about the concept of "Legitimacy". They need to repeat, over and over again, that the election needs to be clean so that it can be considered 'Legitimate'. They need to speak up about the rules of the game and demand that they be 'Legitimate'. They need to point out that the Junta cannot be both a player and the ref at the same time because that would be not 'Legitimate'.  Etc. Etc. Etc.

 

If the election results revolve around the idea of 'Legitimacy', then the results are reasonably easy to see. If the Junta is allowed to define some other concept as the metric of measurement, they'll cheat and win.

 

The Junta will try to cheat because they don't have the numbers. Define what are the winning conditions, then the forces of goodness will be fine.

 

And 'Legitimate'.

 

Edited March 31, 20188 yr by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

6 hours ago, robblok said:

Thaksin his own arrogance will help the junta ban the PTP. 

 

There is a law that he can't influence the PTP but he keeps speaking for them and its clear to everyone he is the leader. If the junta so pleases they can start a court case against the PTP and dissolve them. They only need to wait for Thaksin his arrogance to take over (not a long wait)

The Juntas arrogance will trump Thaksin's and in their denial of his influence and power will open the door for him.

 

The good folk up country are just itching to have him back.

Thaksin may not be your favourite but he has more smarts than the whole Junta put together, these trips aren't coincidental, he is testing the big neighbours water. You will most definitely see the return of his party in your time, even you old buggers, maybe not him but I would say having his sister with him speaks volumes. I remember when they had the bad floods and all the Thais were sending rescue packs of water, food and clothes to the north. Thaksin paid for the trucks and had his name all over them so to the people on the receiving end it looked to them like Thaksin was their saviour. The government are fools to dismiss him but we all know that anyway. He has stirred the pot and we can sit back and enjoy the stew getting more interesting especially with all the military vegetables in it.

As I understand it, it doesn't matter who gets a landslide as th Army are guaranteed a  majority in the constitution.

Thaksin and Yingluck laugh at Junta!

The people like them, not Junta.

2 hours ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

I'll stick my house on

A figure of speech of course as that bet would assume the basic right of land ownership, which we are denied.

This fat toad is farting from his mouth!

8 hours ago, rooster59 said:

He said the authorities had to inform their Japanese counterpart that the court cases against Thaksin and Yingluck were not political in nature.

 

Brilliant!

Just now, cms22 said:

Brilliant!

Yep.Slam dunk.

 

These guys are on top of the game.

8 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Prawit dismisses

Yeah, like he dismissed all accusations regarding his unusual wealth.

3 hours ago, bristolgeoff said:

what about interpol and the arrest warrants for both.they just walk around free as a bird.very strange why no action is taken to catch them

As it says on the Interpol website, member countries are under no obligation to take action against people named in an Interpol red notice (which is not an arrest warrant, by the way, just a notice that the person is wanted by a member country). For instance, if a country feels the charges against an individual are political, religious, racial or military in nature they may decide to take no action on the basis of the red notice.

Edited March 31, 20188 yr by GroveHillWanderer

9 hours ago, coulson said:

That statement would also sum up public opinion of a recent watch controversy.

Well we all know what happens to the rooster when he becomes too old Junta, yep like you the chopping block awaits

10 hours ago, YetAnother said:

as a well known, smart american billionaire said: 'we need to listen to what they say , then we will know who the morons are' 

Wow, Yingluk is looking very Yummy in that Picture.  

Dismissed because there will be no election? :D

9 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

Yingluck looks rested and has lost some weight.

 

Maybe she had some work done.

 

I would still hit that.

 

Yes, she is a sweet Beauty 

some facts at last, but what is the election date, or never mind, more 

disappointment and manipulation  to wear us down, or...?

 

12 hours ago, rooster59 said:

The new Political Parties Act prohibits any political party from allowing an outsider to influence its internal affairs and the violating parties risk getting dissolved. 

What is an "outsider?" There's some choices (maybe more?):

1. non-Thai citizen, ie., British, Japanese, etc.
2. Thai citizen, non-party member
3. Thai citizen not living in Thailand
4. Thai citizen not living in Thailand, a party member, eligible to vote
5. Thai citizen living in Thailand, a party member but ineligible to vote
6. Thai citizen not living in Thailand, a party member but ineligible to vote
7. Thai citizen not living in Thailand, non-party member, ineligible to vote
8. Whatever on a case-by-case basis

Appreciate any authoritarian guidance as it's relevant with regard to whom is specifically affected. For Thaksin #7 above fits.

 

During an interview with Japanese media on Thursday, Thaksin said: “We have many good people in Pheu Thai Party. They should be able to lead the party to another landslide nepotistic family disaster for Thailand.” then, “I am not involved with the party. They really don’t want me to get involved". He is still being referred to as “the big boss” by many party politicians.

 

Deputy Premier and Defence Minister Prawit Wongsuwan said he was not convinced. “He can say whatever he likes. The media may believe what he says. But if you ask me, I don’t believe it,” he said, " I think he has far too much time on his hands"!

 

“We wish we can return to democracy as soon as possible" Thaksin said:,  Thailand needs a system that allows free speech and guarantees human rights to the people, despite the fact that I was systematically closing down free speech and the media, responsible for the murder of 70 odd Muslims in trucks, while slaughtering some 2,000 'suspected', (but no evidence), druggies, before I fled Thailand to avoid prosecution for my crimes. In this modern economy, you need democracy to allow more of my creativity to occur in Thailand.” - and it would!

 

And Thailand wants a corruption free and democratic country? Well this should be interesting.....................

 

12 hours ago, JOC said:

Not defending the rice pledging scheme....that was pure stupidity. But personally Yingluck gained nothing from it...

Gained nothing from the rice-pledging scheme?  Come on.  She won the election because of it.

11 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Thaksin is playing mind games with the junta and succeed. His prediction is not entirely new revelation but just an extrapolating the 2011 results under the MMA system. PTP not going to lose any of their seats in the North and North East. The 220-230 seats are money in the bank. They may even win some Central and Bangkok seats from the Dem. Question is which medium size party will give them a majority that will keep Prayut out of the equation. Any coalition to keep put Prayut is good news. Even better if the coalition get the support to change the constitution. Never say never.

Amending the Constitution is nearly impossible. The Constitution says that at least 20 percent of the members of ALL parties have to agree. If only one party of 4 members votes against the amendment and all 496 other members vote for, than the amendment will not pass.  

A case of lesser evils?

15 hours ago, rooster59 said:

Prawit dismisses Thaksin prediction of a ‘landslide win’

 

He might be correct........for a win there has to be an election.

17 hours ago, baboon said:

But then plenty on here would have us believe that Thailand has never been a democracy, so is that the correct question?

I can think of a few countries where convicted criminals have gone on to lead the place...

I can think of quite a few democratic countries run by criminals. They were never convicted though. But criminals nonetheless guilty of crimes far more severe than what goes on here. 2000 to 2008 springs to mind in that great bastion of democracy 

20 hours ago, robblok said:

Oh JOC you love twisting the facts don't you

 

She is not convicted for the rice program. She is convicted because she knew about fake G2G deals with corruption up to 36 billion (makes the thieves in the welfare centers look like amateurs). She was informed about the fake G2G deals by the opposition, the media and just about everyone.  She said she investigated and there was no corruption.. later it came out these deals were in fact fake and the rice NEVER left Thailand but was resold in the program.

 

Clear case of corruption that YL willingly let happen. 

 

Now next time you start to spread misinformation don't make it so obvious.

 

Oh they could not prove YL gained from it but the rice trader who benefited is connected to Thaksin so who knows.. not proven does not mean not true. But the fact remains.. she knew about the corruption was chair of the rice program said she checked it but did not. Clear negligence a just conviction.

Yes yes, a statement without reference. “My beliefs are the truth because I believe them. Which makes them facts” 

A post containing an oversize and intrusive image has been removed. 

On 3/31/2018 at 8:10 AM, rooster59 said:

“We have many good people in Pheu Thai Party. They should be able to lead the party to another landslide victory.”

 

If the PTP is to control the parliament without a coalition, it will need a landslide under the new MMA electoral system.

In the 2011 election PTP won 265 seats (204 constituency-based+61 party-list).

 

While CDC Chairman Meechai said he could not predict how the MMA electoral system might change election results, an analysis by Allen Hicken and "Bangkok Pundit" did:

Under MMA

• PTP loses 40 seats
• Democrats gain 1 seat

Under MMP (considered an early possibility by the CDC because used by Germany before adopting MMA)

• PTP loses 19 seats
• Democrats gains 20 seats

http://www.thaidatapoints.com/project-updates/theeffectsofthailandsproposedelectoralsystembyallenhickenandbangkokpundit?tmpl=%2Fsystem%2Fapp%2Ftemplates%2Fprint%2F&showPrintDialog=1

For the PTP to do as well in the 2011 election that might be viewed as a landslide, it will need to get more votes likely through increased voter turnout (65% in 2011) and mitigate party spinoffs. While I think the PTP can potentially dominate the next election (if it is free from junta manipulation), it will be reliant more so on a coalition government that will surely dilute its political agenda - as I believe intended by the constitution drafters.

 

23 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

Yingluck looks rested and has lost some weight.

 

Maybe she had some work done.

 

I would still hit that.

 

Typical Thai----- You just want her for the money 

21 hours ago, robblok said:

I would say the cases of Kim Da Jung and Thaksin are not similar. But that was indeed not what I asked. Nice example. 

 

Yes your right Thaksin only cares about Thaksin and his family. I think most of the high ups are like that.. only caring for their own wealth and own family and their friends. 

I think most Thais & Asians in general only care about themselves, family & friends, Hi so's or Lo so's...