Dawn of the new Democrats?

[candide]

43 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

It would be a good idea if the Dems and the PTP were to work together but I don't think it will happen.

 

There are too many hatreds and dinosaurs for it to happen. While those two are fighting each other firstly to decide IF they will work together, next who will be the PM and who will get what ministry, Prayuth and his sharks will be hoovering up the minnow parties.

I agree with you, I don't think they can work together.

Alternatively, an attractive offer of ministry and other positions by Prayuth may allow him to rally at least part of the Dems. I would not be surprised.....

[Samui Bodoh]

29 minutes ago, candide said:

I agree with you, I don't think they can work together.

Alternatively, an attractive offer of ministry and other positions by Prayuth may allow him to rally at least part of the Dems. I would not be surprised.....

Monsieur, I will have to disagree, and you are the reason.

 

A while ago you made an excellent post (I don't know if many people saw it, but I hope they did) where you noted, correctly in my view, that the Dems have essentially split. If memory serves (feel free to correct), there were the party intellectuals wing, the military faction, and the activists wing. Of the three groups, the activists and the military types have already left for the PDRC, leaving behind the intellectuals. I think that you were mostly correct; I don't see either the military types and/or the activist wing returning to the Dems under Abhisit as it just doesn't seem to fit. My long-winded point is that the remnants of the Dem party are, I think, likely to be looking for a coalition partner, any coalition partner after the election. And, that would include the PTP as long as it isn't a Shin family member at the helm.

 

We won't know for a while, but I do enjoy speculating.

 

The other point I would add is that the Dems may be in a worse time than any of us think. They will likely do well in the South as there isn't serious competition. However, in the Bangkok seats, I can see the former Dem vote splitting and allowing other parties to gain; it is a constant occurrence in my country so I am not just speculating madly.

 

Hmm... I should clarify. In my country, the vote split is usually the determining factor in who wins, and the Thai situation around Bangkok is starting to look very familiar in an electoral sense.

 

Again, we'll have to wait a while to see how our predictions do...

 

Cheers

 

Edited April 26, 2018 by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

[candide]

30 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Monsieur, I will have to disagree, and you are the reason.

 

A while ago you made an excellent post (I don't know if many people saw it, but I hope they did) where you noted, correctly in my view, that the Dems have essentially split. If memory serves (feel free to correct), there were the party intellectuals wing, the military faction, and the activists wing. Of the three groups, the activists and the military types have already left for the PDRC, leaving behind the intellectuals. I think that you were mostly correct; I don't see either the military types and/or the activist wing returning to the Dems under Abhisit as it just doesn't seem to fit. My long-winded point is that the remnants of the Dem party are, I think, likely to be looking for a coalition partner, any coalition partner after the election. And, that would include the PTP as long as it isn't a Shin family member at the helm.

 

We won't know for a while, but I do enjoy speculating.

 

The other point I would add is that the Dems may be in a worse time than any of us think. They will likely do well in the South as there isn't serious competition. However, in the Bangkok seats, I can see the former Dem vote splitting and allowing other parties to gain; it is a constant occurrence in my country so I am not just speculating madly.

 

Hmm... I should clarify. In my country, the vote split is usually the determining factor in who wins, and the Thai situation around Bangkok is starting to look very familiar in an electoral sense.

 

Again, we'll have to wait a while to see how our predictions do...

 

Cheers

 

I agree that there is currently a split, as you mention. However, it is not clear what the real cause is. One may be that the remaing Dems are more attached to democracy than we originally thought. The other, more practical, may be that the army steals their job by remaining in power. If the second dominates, there is nothing that a good job offer can't solve.

Edited April 26, 2018 by candide

[Samui Bodoh]

8 minutes ago, candide said:

I agree that there is currently a split, as you mention. However, it is not clear what the real cause is. One may be that the remaing Dems are more attached to democracy than we originally thought. The other, more practical, may be that the army steals their job by remaining in power. If the second dominates, there is nothing that a good job offer can't solve.

They HAVE to be more attached to Democracy than we thought.

 

I lived under Suharto's Indonesia, the Communist party of Vietnam, the Dictator(s) in S Korea in the late 80's, a few African kleptomania parties, Chaing Kai Shek's KMT in Taiwan, etc etc etc. Of all those parties and more, the single lowest opinion I have ever had of a political party is the Thai Democrat party.

 

I hate the thought that I might have underestimated my contempt for them so badly...

 

 

[billd766]

3 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Monsieur, I will have to disagree, and you are the reason.

 

A while ago you made an excellent post (I don't know if many people saw it, but I hope they did) where you noted, correctly in my view, that the Dems have essentially split. If memory serves (feel free to correct), there were the party intellectuals wing, the military faction, and the activists wing. Of the three groups, the activists and the military types have already left for the PDRC, leaving behind the intellectuals. I think that you were mostly correct; I don't see either the military types and/or the activist wing returning to the Dems under Abhisit as it just doesn't seem to fit. My long-winded point is that the remnants of the Dem party are, I think, likely to be looking for a coalition partner, any coalition partner after the election. And, that would include the PTP as long as it isn't a Shin family member at the helm.

 

We won't know for a while, but I do enjoy speculating.

 

The other point I would add is that the Dems may be in a worse time than any of us think. They will likely do well in the South as there isn't serious competition. However, in the Bangkok seats, I can see the former Dem vote splitting and allowing other parties to gain; it is a constant occurrence in my country so I am not just speculating madly.

 

Hmm... I should clarify. In my country, the vote split is usually the determining factor in who wins, and the Thai situation around Bangkok is starting to look very familiar in an electoral sense.

 

Again, we'll have to wait a while to see how our predictions do...

 

Cheers

 

 

I think you may be wrong about the Democrats doing well in the south.

 

That is Sutheps territory and his grasp on it will not be given up easily plus there is perhaps a family dynasty there too.

 

He probably knows where all the bodies are buried and will be owed a great many favours which may shut the Democrats out.

 

Anyone could have seen this coming for the last 2 or 3 years and IMHO Prayuth will take advantage of it to the detriment of the Democrats, certainly in their current situation.

 

To gain some crumbs they may have to eat humble pie and go along with Prayuths lot whether they like it or not.

[Samui Bodoh]

9 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

I think you may be wrong about the Democrats doing well in the south.

 

That is Sutheps territory and his grasp on it will not be given up easily plus there is perhaps a family dynasty there too.

 

He probably knows where all the bodies are buried and will be owed a great many favours which may shut the Democrats out.

 

Anyone could have seen this coming for the last 2 or 3 years and IMHO Prayuth will take advantage of it to the detriment of the Democrats, certainly in their current situation.

 

To gain some crumbs they may have to eat humble pie and go along with Prayuths lot whether they like it or not.

Good post! We are in the realm of speculation, so we will have to wait a while for the answers...

 

I can't completely disagree with your post, but I think that there will be a strong element of what I call "Legacy Voting". Simply put, if you and your family have been voting for a certain party all your lives, it is very difficult to change; it is not really a logical proposition, but there is a great deal of evidence to support the idea in Political Science circles. Even if Suthep should buy a party, I still think the Dems will do okay with the new system of ballot distribution. Will they be as strong as they have been in past elections? I think no, but they will be a player for the immediate future.

 

The second part of the equation is what occurs after a vote; my view is that the Dems (in one form or another) will be part of any governing coalition, the question is which one? Should an election occur and it is 'reasonably free and fair', I think the forces of goodness will win. Should that occur, the Dems (official party) will agree to almost anything in order to join a government and try to project some kind of relevance. Alternatively, if there is no election or it is so fixed to render it meaningless (very possible), there will be a push to have as many parties and/or civilians to join to give the illusion of legitimacy and/or reconciliation, in which case the (un)official Dems will clamor to join.

 

Either way I suspect that the people who have been the whores (apologies- I can't think of a better word for them) will continue to be the whores; the question is who will be their masters.

 

[Anak Nakal]

Dem party have no ethic or moral.

[bannork]

Note that Suthep's brother didn't set up a party last month. This suggests Suthep knows Prayuth is not even popular in the south. His tirade against a Songkhla fisherman and the continuing low price of rubber has done Prayuth no favours there. 

 

 

[Eric Loh]

21 minutes ago, bannork said:

Note that Suthep's brother didn't set up a party last month. This suggests Suthep knows Prayuth is not even popular in the south. His tirade against a Songkhla fisherman and the continuing low price of rubber has done Prayuth no favours there. 

 

 

Rumour had it that the Muan Maha Prachachon Party will not be set up as many of the PDRC members were dead against it and they can’t find supporters to finance. More many of their leaders have gone back to the Dem Party and will be hard to find incumbent politicians to replace. As usual Suthep is just full of hot air. 

[bannork]

On 26/4/2561 at 12:58 PM, billd766 said:

 

The best thing that the Democrats could have done several years ago would have been to clear out all the old dinosaurs in the party leadership, remove Abhisit and start from scratch.

 

Now IMHO they are trying to do too little and far too late.

 

Abhisit will be forever tainted by 2010 and will only drag the party further behind.

 

They will be decimated at the next election (whenever and if ever it comes). They will lose a lot of seats in the south to Suthep's new party, quite a few seats in Bangkok and they have little chance in the north or northeast against whatever name and whoever runs Thaksins party up there.

 

This is only my opinion and is worth just as much (or just as little) as anyother posters here.

 

Sadly I believe that Prayuth will stay in power by hook or by crook as the smaller parties will want to go with the money and power and not to help the Thai people.

As you know Suthep didn't set up a new party, his supporters  have all gone back to The Democrats.

I\m not sure why you think the Democrats will lose in Bangkok. A change of leadership could invigorate the party, they have plenty of canvassers and supporters in Bangkok..

 

[Samui Bodoh]

2 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Rumour had it that the Muan Maha Prachachon Party will not be set up as many of the PDRC members were dead against it and they can’t find supporters to finance. More many of their leaders have gone back to the Dem Party and will be hard to find incumbent politicians to replace. As usual Suthep is just full of hot air. 

I was in the middle of writing out a post with a different conclusion when your post popped up. How good is the rumor? Is there anything concrete to back it up? Not doubting you, but couldn't Suthep generally fund a party himself? There would have to be quite serious and severe opposition to shoot it down; I find it a little hard to believe. Unless...

 

I was about to propose a different theory, but I will freely admit that I have not the slightest evidence to support it, but rather it is pure speculation and proposed political maneuvering.

 

My theory (based on nothing) is that a separate regional party to fight the Dems in the South would be avoided or at least softened, and instead have Suthep/the rent-a-mob join up with Somkid's up-coming party to try to create a 'national' party. The thinking being to get away from a purely regional party (Suthep's rent-a-mob) and pretend that there was a real 'grassroots', 'national' party that supported Prayut. In terms of pure politics, it would benefit Prayut if he could show (honestly or not) that he had support from different regions of the country as a counter to the PTP. Further, assuming that Somkid's party would finish either first or second in the South and the Dems also finish first or second in the South, they could sweep all the seats.

 

I am not sure at all if I am even close to being correct, but as I try to glimpse into the electoral future, I am sure that Prayut and his evil minions are desperately trying to find a path where they can claim some legitimacy of their own instead of just picking off bribe-able politicos from different regions/areas. This is a scenario where they could claim some legitimate support.

 

What do you think? Plausible? 

[bannork]

3 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I was in the middle of writing out a post with a different conclusion when your post popped up. How good is the rumor? Is there anything concrete to back it up? Not doubting you, but couldn't Suthep generally fund a party himself? There would have to be quite serious and severe opposition to shoot it down; I find it a little hard to believe. Unless...

 

I was about to propose a different theory, but I will freely admit that I have not the slightest evidence to support it, but rather it is pure speculation and proposed political maneuvering.

 

My theory (based on nothing) is that a separate regional party to fight the Dems in the South would be avoided or at least softened, and instead have Suthep/the rent-a-mob join up with Somkid's up-coming party to try to create a 'national' party. The thinking being to get away from a purely regional party (Suthep's rent-a-mob) and pretend that there was a real 'grassroots', 'national' party that supported Prayut. In terms of pure politics, it would benefit Prayut if he could show (honestly or not) that he had support from different regions of the country as a counter to the PTP. Further, assuming that Somkid's party would finish either first or second in the South and the Dems also finish first or second in the South, they could sweep all the seats.

 

I am not sure at all if I am even close to being correct, but as I try to glimpse into the electoral future, I am sure that Prayut and his evil minions are desperately trying to find a path where they can claim some legitimacy of their own instead of just picking off bribe-able politicos from different regions/areas. This is a scenario where they could claim some legitimate support.

 

What do you think? Plausible? 

The Democrat voters in the south are very loyal to the party and their own MPs. Another party has no chance, especially as long as Chuan Leekpai is alive.

[Samui Bodoh]

3 minutes ago, bannork said:

The Democrat voters in the south are very loyal to the party and their own MPs. Another party has no chance, especially as long as Chuan Leekpai is alive.

I generally agree with you; I think the Dems will do well in the constituencies.

 

However, there are the 'list' seats as well...

 

And with one vote for the Dems for the constituency, those are up for grabs.

 

Remember there is a new voting system.

 

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I was in the middle of writing out a post with a different conclusion when your post popped up. How good is the rumor? Is there anything concrete to back it up? Not doubting you, but couldn't Suthep generally fund a party himself? There would have to be quite serious and severe opposition to shoot it down; I find it a little hard to believe. Unless...

 

I was about to propose a different theory, but I will freely admit that I have not the slightest evidence to support it, but rather it is pure speculation and proposed political maneuvering.

 

My theory (based on nothing) is that a separate regional party to fight the Dems in the South would be avoided or at least softened, and instead have Suthep/the rent-a-mob join up with Somkid's up-coming party to try to create a 'national' party. The thinking being to get away from a purely regional party (Suthep's rent-a-mob) and pretend that there was a real 'grassroots', 'national' party that supported Prayut. In terms of pure politics, it would benefit Prayut if he could show (honestly or not) that he had support from different regions of the country as a counter to the PTP. Further, assuming that Somkid's party would finish either first or second in the South and the Dems also finish first or second in the South, they could sweep all the seats.

 

I am not sure at all if I am even close to being correct, but as I try to glimpse into the electoral future, I am sure that Prayut and his evil minions are desperately trying to find a path where they can claim some legitimacy of their own instead of just picking off bribe-able politicos from different regions/areas. This is a scenario where they could claim some legitimate support.

 

What do you think? Plausible? 

I gleaned the information from Bkk Post which I can't link under forum rules. You quite right that some Dems heavyweights cautioned Suthep that his party may fighting on the same turf and should be avoided. As for financing, no mentioned why Suthep wouldn't foot the bill like he did with the Dem Party. Perhaps it was due to his 'retirement' from politics.

 

PS. I simply can't refer to your pseudo name as it deemed disrespectful. Can you drop 'bodoh'?

[billd766]

3 hours ago, bannork said:

As you know Suthep didn't set up a new party, his supporters  have all gone back to The Democrats.

I\m not sure why you think the Democrats will lose in Bangkok. A change of leadership could invigorate the party, they have plenty of canvassers and supporters in Bangkok..

 

 

We will just have to wait a year or two until the next election and see what happens.

 

If I were to put money on it I would put the Democrats as #3, PTP as #2 and the current PMs party whatever it will be as #1 simply because they are holding the cards and are able to shuffle them the way THEY want.

 

Ne3ver mind the popularity vote, the legal or moral vote. At this point in time THEY have the power to do what they want.

[BobBKK]

11 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

We will just have to wait a year or two until the next election and see what happens.

 

If I were to put money on it I would put the Democrats as #3, PTP as #2 and the current PMs party whatever it will be as #1 simply because they are holding the cards and are able to shuffle them the way THEY want.

 

Ne3ver mind the popularity vote, the legal or moral vote. At this point in time THEY have the power to do what they want.

 

I'd be totally shocked if the PM's Party got anywhere near number 1, however, I think that there maybe skulduggery and several parties form a 'coalition' to get the PM back as PM (unfortunately). FFP will lay foundations to get in at some point in the future as they will take much of the youth vote so I do see them as 3 or 4 this time.

[candide]

16 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

I was in the middle of writing out a post with a different conclusion when your post popped up. How good is the rumor? Is there anything concrete to back it up? Not doubting you, but couldn't Suthep generally fund a party himself? There would have to be quite serious and severe opposition to shoot it down; I find it a little hard to believe. Unless...

 

I was about to propose a different theory, but I will freely admit that I have not the slightest evidence to support it, but rather it is pure speculation and proposed political maneuvering.

 

My theory (based on nothing) is that a separate regional party to fight the Dems in the South would be avoided or at least softened, and instead have Suthep/the rent-a-mob join up with Somkid's up-coming party to try to create a 'national' party. The thinking being to get away from a purely regional party (Suthep's rent-a-mob) and pretend that there was a real 'grassroots', 'national' party that supported Prayut. In terms of pure politics, it would benefit Prayut if he could show (honestly or not) that he had support from different regions of the country as a counter to the PTP. Further, assuming that Somkid's party would finish either first or second in the South and the Dems also finish first or second in the South, they could sweep all the seats.

 

I am not sure at all if I am even close to being correct, but as I try to glimpse into the electoral future, I am sure that Prayut and his evil minions are desperately trying to find a path where they can claim some legitimacy of their own instead of just picking off bribe-able politicos from different regions/areas. This is a scenario where they could claim some legitimate support.

 

What do you think? Plausible? 

Another alternative explanation would be a behind curtains agreement between Suthep and the Dems. 

[Samui Bodoh]

53 minutes ago, candide said:

Another alternative explanation would be a behind curtains agreement between Suthep and the Dems. 

Monsieur! I am shocked! SHOCKED! C'est impossible! 

 

Actually, it is getting a little bit off topic (sorry), but I have no problem if Suthep and his rent-a-mob want to join up with Somkid's party, either formally, informally or "behind curtains".

 

The reason that I am okay with it is twofold. First, how would this be bad and/or illegal? I can see no reason at all for anyone to complain about this; my only thought on the matter is that I prefer transparency so I would prefer that if they do it, they do it openly and aboveboard.

 

The second reason that I don't have a problem with it is that I am beginning to think it might be a good idea if the Forces of Light and Goodness created some kind of pro-Democracy pledge and encouraged all parties to sign on. One of the problems that has plagued Thai politics for so long is that people get elected, then 'sell' their seat/loyalty to the highest bidder. I remember in the late 90's they brought in a law which said something like 'MPs cannot change parties 90 days before an election or 90 days after an election' (my memory is quite hazy; anyone remember the details of that law?). I think a concern is that if there is not a clear government formed after the election, the Forces of Darkness will start trying to pick off MPs with offers of jobs, etc. If there was a clear pledge, created before an election and not emanating from a single party which stated something like "we will not support the military in politics" or something like that, it would be a good thing.

 

I wonder if there is a will to sign on to something like that? It would be good to see that question asked and answered before people cast their votes...

 

... and, to a certain extent, it would make the election a referendum on whether the Thai people want Democracy or Military rule; I think I know the answer to that, but it would be good if the Thai people weighed in...

 

Edited April 28, 2018 by Samui Bodoh
Lack of coffee

[Eligius]

1 minute ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Monsieur! I am shocked! SHOCKED! C'est impossible! 

 

Actually, it is getting a little bit off topic (sorry), but I have no problem if Suthep and his rent-a-mob want to join up with Somkid's party, either formally, informally or "behind curtains".

 

The reason that I am okay with it is twofold. First, how would this be bad and/or illegal? I can see no reason at all for anyone to complain about this; my only thought on the matter is that I prefer transparency so I would prefer that if they do it, they do it openly and aboveboard.

 

The second reason that I don't have a problem with it is that I am beginning to think it might be a good idea if the Forces of Light and Goodness created some kind of pro-Democracy pledge and encouraged all parties to sign on. One of the problems that has plagued Thai politics for so long is that people get elected, then 'sell' their seat/loyalty to the highest bidder. I remember in the late 90's they brought in a law which said something like 'MPs cannot change parties 90 days before an election or 90 days after an election' (my memory is quite hazy; anyone remember the details of that law?). I think a concern is that if there is not a clear government formed after the election, the Forces of Darkness will start trying to pick off MPs with offers of jobs, etc. If there was a clear pledge, created before an election and not emanating from a single party which stated something like "we will not support the military in politics" or something like that, it would be a good thing.

 

I wonder if there is a will to sign on to something like that? It would be good to see that question asked and answered before people cast their votes...

 

Very good observations, Samui, with which I am in agreement.

 

Did you know that young Thanathorn (Future Forward Party) has insisted on such a pledge as you suggest? He wants politicians and parties to commit to keeping the army in their barracks and out of politics. He urges other 'democratic' parties to support him in this pledge. While I have some reservations about Thanathorn, I do think this is an excellent idea and should be promoted.

[bannork]

23 minutes ago, Eligius said:

Very good observations, Samui, with which I am in agreement.

 

Did you know that young Thanathorn (Future Forward Party) has insisted on such a pledge as you suggest? He wants politicians and parties to commit to keeping the army in their barracks and out of politics. He urges other 'democratic' parties to support him in this pledge. While I have some reservations about Thanathorn, I do think this is an excellent idea and should be promoted.

How can politicians keep soldiers in the barracks?  It's the latter that have the guns.

[pornprong]

14 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

We will just have to wait a year or two until the next election and see what happens.

 

If I were to put money on it I would put the Democrats as #3, PTP as #2 and the current PMs party whatever it will be as #1 simply because they are holding the cards and are able to shuffle them the way THEY want.

 

Ne3ver mind the popularity vote, the legal or moral vote. At this point in time THEY have the power to do what they want.

Deputy PM Somkid recently stated that he expects that a pro-junta party may win up to 20 seats.

 

As much as you want your hatred of PTP to be validated at an election, the fact is everyone expects PTP to win around 220-230 seats.

There just isn't that many deluded Thaksin haters amongst the Thai populace.

 

Any comments on what you think about a system where the candidate for a party that wins 20 out of 500 seats is still the frontrunner to be the next PM?

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, pornprong said:

Any comments on what you think about a system where the candidate for a party that wins 20 out of 500 seats is still the frontrunner to be the next PM?

If by some form of skullduggery, <deleted> got the premiership, how will parliament function when PTP and their coaliations have most of the seats as oppositions. The parliament will be a lame duck with bills stalled and unable to be passed. <deleted> is obsessed with being in power and ignoring the country well being. 

 

Anyway, I still think his ambition will be crushed with PTP securing a large majority at the expense of the Dem Party and have enough support in parliament to appoint the PM. 

[billd766]

41 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

If by some form of skullduggery, <deleted> got the premiership, how will parliament function when PTP and their coaliations have most of the seats as oppositions. The parliament will be a lame duck with bills stalled and unable to be passed. <deleted> is obsessed with being in power and ignoring the country well being. 

 

Anyway, I still think his ambition will be crushed with PTP securing a large majority at the expense of the Dem Party and have enough support in parliament to appoint the PM. 

 

I agree with you about the PTP getting a large number of seats of their own plus quite a few from the Democrats but to run the government they will need the support of quite a few parties. That would be Varawut Silpa-Archa (Banharn's son) and the Chart Thai Pattana, the BhumChaiTai party out of Buriram that used to be run by Newin Chidchob and both have worked with the PTP or its predecessors before.

 

I don't think that the Democrats will join in (perhaps they won't be invited), nor do I think the new younger parties will join them ceither.

 

IMHO there are far too many parties getting involved in the next election which is bad for Thailand but good for the current PM. They will split up the votes and it will become a beggars muddle in which Sneaky Pete will make his move.

 

IIRC the government (whichever one it will be) needs at least 376 votes to get legislation passed and the upper house has 250 of the best senators that you can find. That means that if the government is run by the PTP and a coalition they will need at least 400 seats (to allow for sickness etc) and every MP will HAVE to turnout.

 

If they want to change the new Constitution for example they will have to wheel every MP in including those in sickbeds and at deaths door as Sneaky Pete will be on them like flies on a turd.

 

There will be no sneaky 04:30 votes this time around.

[Eric Loh]

37 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

I agree with you about the PTP getting a large number of seats of their own plus quite a few from the Democrats but to run the government they will need the support of quite a few parties. That would be Varawut Silpa-Archa (Banharn's son) and the Chart Thai Pattana, the BhumChaiTai party out of Buriram that used to be run by Newin Chidchob and both have worked with the PTP or its predecessors before.

 

I don't think that the Democrats will join in (perhaps they won't be invited), nor do I think the new younger parties will join them ceither.

 

IMHO there are far too many parties getting involved in the next election which is bad for Thailand but good for the current PM. They will split up the votes and it will become a beggars muddle in which Sneaky Pete will make his move.

 

IIRC the government (whichever one it will be) needs at least 376 votes to get legislation passed and the upper house has 250 of the best senators that you can find. That means that if the government is run by the PTP and a coalition they will need at least 400 seats (to allow for sickness etc) and every MP will HAVE to turnout.

 

If they want to change the new Constitution for example they will have to wheel every MP in including those in sickbeds and at deaths door as Sneaky Pete will be on them like flies on a turd.

 

There will be no sneaky 04:30 votes this time around.

If we base on the 2010 results and extrapolate under the MMA, PTP will still have a sizeable seats of between 220-230. I think they will win more in Bangkok and Central. BJT will be the most significant coalition as they are the biggest mid-size party of around 50 seats. Anutin of the BJT has been quite vocal anti junta critic recently. 

 

Chart Thai Pattana can go either way as they has a non confrontational policy initiated by its founder Banghan. CTP and Chart Thai Pue Pardin however are the smallest mid-size parties. They are not so significant in terms of getting the majority in the coalition. 

 

Dem will not join the coalition as it has different policies with PTP and risk angering their supporters. But they may join PTP in the voting process for the premier. That will do lots in re-branding their battered image.

 

Lower house generate legislations and don’t need the upper house to pass bills. The upper house will review and suggest changes or amendment to the bills.  This where the problem will be with the appointed senators if PTP is the government. Hope there will be reasonable senators that will consider good legislations. By the way, Parliament session can stretch deep into the night. Nothing unusual. In this instance, the Dems walked out and decided not to participate in the amnesty voting of the

bill. 

[Samui Bodoh]

13 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

If we base on the 2010 results and extrapolate under the MMA, PTP will still have a sizeable seats of between 220-230. I think they will win more in Bangkok and Central. BJT will be the most significant coalition as they are the biggest mid-size party of around 50 seats. Anutin of the BJT has been quite vocal anti junta critic recently. 

 

Chart Thai Pattana can go either way as they has a non confrontational policy initiated by its founder Banghan. CTP and Chart Thai Pue Pardin however are the smallest mid-size parties. They are not so significant in terms of getting the majority in the coalition. 

 

Dem will not join the coalition as it has different policies with PTP and risk angering their supporters. But they may join PTP in the voting process for the premier. That will do lots in re-branding their battered image.

 

Lower house generate legislations and don’t need the upper house to pass bills. The upper house will review and suggest changes or amendment to the bills.  This where the problem will be with the appointed senators if PTP is the government. Hope there will be reasonable senators that will consider good legislations. By the way, Parliament session can stretch deep into the night. Nothing unusual. In this instance, the Dems walked out and decided not to participate in the amnesty voting of the

bill. 

Good post! I was doing a double-take when I saw billd766's post and the number 375 to pass legislation. It didn't sound correct to me...

 

I do have to argue a bit on the extrapolation of results under the new constitution based on 2011 results; I think the 2011 election went more strongly towards the PTP than the up-coming one will (whenever that may be...). The 2011 election was the first opportunity to manifest anger over the slaughter of people on the streets of Bangkok, and I think that really played a significant role in getting people to the polls. I remember the mood of that election; there was a palpable sense of revenge for the killings. Further, the rice-pledging scheme was a bright, shiny new policy and attracted huge interest. The benefit of hindsight allows us to see that it wasn't the best thought out plan, but at the time it looked like it would be a GREAT thing. Those two elements led to, what I think, was an elevated vote count for the PTP that won't be equaled. Next, who will be the PTP Leader? The contenders that I have seen are okay, but none really excite the way Thaksin or Yingluck did, and that matters. Yes, the PTP should win the next election, but to assume the same vote totals as 2011 doesn't compute to me. Finally, the above doesn't take into account the sophisticated propaganda campaign that the Junta has been waging against the PTP and other legislators; they have essentially turned the word "politician" into a synonym of "thief" or "crook". It is easy to underestimate the effectiveness of that campaign; it is hard to convince a slightly cynical public that politicians AREN'T crooks.

 

Nevertheless, I do agree that the PTP should be the largest party (assuming that they are allowed to contest it fairly, JAG has had a few choice thoughts on that), but I would be wary of assuming seat totals like the ones noted before.

 

Finally, this thread is about the Dems, so let me make a final comment. I do actually think the Dems, or at least what is left of the party, will want to join a coalition, any coalition, as long as it is not led by a Shin family member. Yes, their base may be a bit angry, but if they are unable to re-build SOME relevance soon, then they will simply fade away into nothingness (IMHO), and I think they know that. Were I a Dem strategist, I would be looking for ANY means to keep my party alive so as to be able to re-build; failure to do might well mean the actually end of it. They have a great deal to atone for; they need time more than anything.

 

Happy Saturday all!

[Eric Loh]

32 minutes ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Good post! I was doing a double-take when I saw billd766's post and the number 375 to pass legislation. It didn't sound correct to me...

 

I do have to argue a bit on the extrapolation of results under the new constitution based on 2011 results; I think the 2011 election went more strongly towards the PTP than the up-coming one will (whenever that may be...). The 2011 election was the first opportunity to manifest anger over the slaughter of people on the streets of Bangkok, and I think that really played a significant role in getting people to the polls. I remember the mood of that election; there was a palpable sense of revenge for the killings. Further, the rice-pledging scheme was a bright, shiny new policy and attracted huge interest. The benefit of hindsight allows us to see that it wasn't the best thought out plan, but at the time it looked like it would be a GREAT thing. Those two elements led to, what I think, was an elevated vote count for the PTP that won't be equaled. Next, who will be the PTP Leader? The contenders that I have seen are okay, but none really excite the way Thaksin or Yingluck did, and that matters. Yes, the PTP should win the next election, but to assume the same vote totals as 2011 doesn't compute to me. Finally, the above doesn't take into account the sophisticated propaganda campaign that the Junta has been waging against the PTP and other legislators; they have essentially turned the word "politician" into a synonym of "thief" or "crook". It is easy to underestimate the effectiveness of that campaign; it is hard to convince a slightly cynical public that politicians AREN'T crooks.

 

Nevertheless, I do agree that the PTP should be the largest party (assuming that they are allowed to contest it fairly, JAG has had a few choice thoughts on that), but I would be wary of assuming seat totals like the ones noted before.

 

Finally, this thread is about the Dems, so let me make a final comment. I do actually think the Dems, or at least what is left of the party, will want to join a coalition, any coalition, as long as it is not led by a Shin family member. Yes, their base may be a bit angry, but if they are unable to re-build SOME relevance soon, then they will simply fade away into nothingness (IMHO), and I think they know that. Were I a Dem strategist, I would be looking for ANY means to keep my party alive so as to be able to re-build; failure to do might well mean the actually end of it. They have a great deal to atone for; they need time more than anything.

 

Happy Saturday all!

#Thanks. Your points well illustrated. 

 

I gave those confident numbers based on the 2008 election held after the 2006 coup. That election was won handsomely by PPP which was the offshoot of the TRT. It was an election that really handicapped TRT with the party dissolution and the ban of their 111 incumbent MPs. Their founder fled and the junta launched a propaganda campaign to discredit TRT. No Shin prime minister candidate and they have to rope in Samak and field a second tier team. PPP still won and the election turnout was massive. An angry and resounding message against the coup.

 

All seem similar this time around with the added anger against delayed election, poor economy and a pompous non elected premier. Citizens across the divide are fed-up with this corrupt regime and will come out in numbers.

 

North and NE are secured PTP constituencies. Bangkok, Central and some south constituencies are vulnerable for surprise changes. 

 

Last words go go to the Dem who I see will have a rude awakening this coming election. They should start going to the grounds and sense the mood of his supporters. Still time for Abhisit to do the right thing and resign.

 

 

[Eligius]

2 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

...

 

All seem similar this time around with the added anger against delayed election, poor economy and a pompous non elected premier. Citizens across the divide are fed-up with this corrupt regime and will come out in numbers.

 

North and NE are secured PTP constituencies. Bangkok, Central and some south constituencies are vulnerable for surprise changes. 

 

Last words go go to the Dem who I see will have a rude awakening this coming election. They should start going to the grounds and sense the mood of his supporters. Still time for Abhisit to do the right thing and resign.

 

 

Very good post, as always, Eric. I particularly like the part I've excerpted above.

 

Yes, I can well imagine that even a number of the Bangkok people who previously voted Democrat might this time - just might - vote for Thanathorn's Future Forward Party. Most Thais I speak to these days, of all political stripes (except for the die-hard fascists - some of whom, regrettably, I also know), are disillusioned with/ strongly dislike this military junta. 

So I think you are right: there could be a big shake-up IF the Thai people are truly allowed a voice ...

[billd766]

9 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

#Thanks. Your points well illustrated. 

 

I gave those confident numbers based on the 2008 election held after the 2006 coup. That election was won handsomely by PPP which was the offshoot of the TRT. It was an election that really handicapped TRT with the party dissolution and the ban of their 111 incumbent MPs. Their founder fled and the junta launched a propaganda campaign to discredit TRT. No Shin prime minister candidate and they have to rope in Samak and field a second tier team. PPP still won and the election turnout was massive. An angry and resounding message against the coup.

 

All seem similar this time around with the added anger against delayed election, poor economy and a pompous non elected premier. Citizens across the divide are fed-up with this corrupt regime and will come out in numbers.

 

North and NE are secured PTP constituencies. Bangkok, Central and some south constituencies are vulnerable for surprise changes. 

 

Last words go go to the Dem who I see will have a rude awakening this coming election. They should start going to the grounds and sense the mood of his supporters. Still time for Abhisit to do the right thing and resign.

 

 

 

quote "I was doing a double-take when I saw billd766's post and the number 375 to pass legislation. It didn't sound correct to me..."

 

I now have a feeling that 375 is the number to select an "outsider PM". Please correct me if I am wrong.    

 

IMHO it is far too late for Abhisit to resign and for the Democrats to reform anew. That should have happened 8 years ago really when they lost to the PTP and 2 years ago at the latest. They can bleat and whine all they like about the current government wouldn't have allowed them to reform etc but IMHO they are in for a defeat.

 

The only way to recover will be to dump the entire leadership and bring in a new lot and make a rule that nobody over 60 can be the PM or on the central committe.

 

Even then it will take them at least one and probably 2 elections to recover.

[baboon]

9 hours ago, Eligius said:

Very good post, as always, Eric. I particularly like the part I've excerpted above.

 

Yes, I can well imagine that even a number of the Bangkok people who previously voted Democrat might this time - just might - vote for Thanathorn's Future Forward Party. Most Thais I speak to these days, of all political stripes (except for the die-hard fascists - some of whom, regrettably, I also know), are disillusioned with/ strongly dislike this military junta. 

So I think you are right: there could be a big shake-up IF the Thai people are truly allowed a voice ...

Truly allowed a voice? Forget it. Yes, there are plenty of former junta supporters round my way who aren't so keen anymore, but it is too late. They duly filed up to vote 'Yes' to the latest turkeys for Christmas constitution and you know what? The junta could scrap that constitution tomorrow, freeze the 'election' and start afresh.

What would the locals do? The same as always: Nothing.

Now that's fine by me, but whenever Mrs baboon starts complaining about the latest injustice, I am afraid I simply don't want to know anymore. Me, I am simply a guest and can go home if I don't like it...

[Anak Nakal]

8 hours ago, baboon said:

Truly allowed a voice? Forget it. Yes, there are plenty of former junta supporters round my way who aren't so keen anymore, but it is too late. They duly filed up to vote 'Yes' to the latest turkeys for Christmas constitution and you know what? The junta could scrap that constitution tomorrow, freeze the 'election' and start afresh.

What would the locals do? The same as always: Nothing.

Now that's fine by me, but whenever Mrs baboon starts complaining about the latest injustice, I am afraid I simply don't want to know anymore. Me, I am simply a guest and can go home if I don't like it...

If not care, why post?