1 minute ago, simoh1490 said:

Some posters used to work in finance-related fields and have an interest in economics and are keen to help others understand the mechanics of it all. Others don't even begin to understand the meaning of those things so they get by posting sarcastic posts instead.

So my sarcasm means I obviously never worked in the financial sector then.....and some highly respected helpful financial experts live in dusty villages outside Korat. Pick what you like out of that for what is reality or sarcasm, you could be right or wrong on all counts.

Just now, simoh1490 said:

I'm trying very hard to take your question seriously and to answer it. In order to do that I need to understand the nature of the business, what business sector they exist in, manufacturing, tourism etc and how long they have been established. 

 

A long established business owner may complain about their own market sector or they make genereal observations - is that because of an increase in competition that's eating into his market share or is it because people from manufacturing and agriculture are moving into tourism-related business? Or is the business so bad because the baht is strong and the business imports components, without understanding those details it's impossible to answer the question sensibly. BUT if it's just a general across the board whinge that things haven't been this bad since 20xx, it may just be that it's nothing more than complaining without being able to substantiate the complaint, Thai people do like to complain a lot. 

You don't need to take me serious, nobody on this forum takes you serious.

 

I told you previously already, because you are obsessed by money ( especially the money that others have), doesn't make you a financial expert.

 

Everyone with a bit of reading comprehension would have figured out from my first post that I was talking about construction companies, the larger ones that have been established since decades, not those that build the single townhouses.

 

Do you also want names, telephone numbers and email addresses?

 

Why they complain, because there is no foreign investment, and that is what they have relied on for their business.

 

If you look at the thousands and thousands of unoccupied shophouses, everyone knows this is parked money, but they stay empty because business is bad.

 

In my area along highway #36, a major highway for industry and business, there are tens of large new build villages that are 80% empty.

 

Near my house Patta has build a new village with 270 houses which is 90% finished now, starting from 5.9 million, but is virtually empty.

 

Why? Because the people don't have the money to pay for it. There are several similar projects, that are also mostly empty, within a 5 km radius.

 

Why they keep building? Because they get easy money from the banks, because the show must go on.

 

 

 

 

3 hours ago, dave_boo said:

There's a lot of really smart people in this subforum who know this stuff much better than I. So perhaps they can tell me if I'm correct or not.

 

Thailand is reacting due to the tariffs brought onto China, correct? And those tariffs were due to seveal issues, such as currency manipulation, their own tariffs, and "dumping" to get a monopoly, correct? 

 

But Thailand is only protesting their innocence on the currency manipulation. But, according to my understanding, making their currency stronger means their exports are more expensive and not as competitive, correct? And a stronger baht makes imports from the USA more affordable, correct? So what do they have to fear in regards to a currency manipulation allegation? Or is it simply one official covering his rear for possible actions the USA may take?

 

I have heard of no instances of "dumping" by Thailand, so that wouldn't occur any actions would it?

 

So it just leaves the tariffs that are currently in place with regards to imports. In that instance, doesn't a quid pro quo make sense? 

I think all of this is Trump speak for an imbalance between imports and exports, the US imports way more from China than China imports from the US and Trump wants to balance things up, he calls all that currency manipulation because having a trade surplus does indeed strengthen the local economy.

 

But what's being missed or rather overlooked in the case of China for example is the degree to which China buys US Treasuries and supports US businesses in China - GM sells more cars in China than it does in the US, the problem is that GM makes those cars in China rather than importing them from the US. 

 

As for Thailand, I really don't think there's any dumping taking place, Thailand is a developing nation hence its prices are/were cheap and western countries wanted to but at those prices, is it really Thailands fault that US prices are so high by comparison and it's not cost-effective for Thailand to import more from them.

Just now, janclaes47 said:

You don't need to take me serious, nobody on this forum takes you serious.

 

I told you previously already, because you are obsessed by money ( especially the money that others have), doesn't make you a financial expert.

 

Everyone with a bit of reading comprehension would have figured out from my first post that I was talking about construction companies, the larger ones that have been established since decades, not those that build the single townhouses.

 

Do you also want names, telephone numbers and email addresses?

 

Why they complain, because there is no foreign investment, and that is what they have relied on for their business.

 

If you look at the thousands and thousands of unoccupied shophouses, everyone knows this is parked money, but they stay empty because business is bad.

 

In my area along highway #36, a major highway for industry and business, there are tens of large new build villages that are 80% empty.

 

Near my house Patta has build a new village with 270 houses which is 90% finished now, starting from 5.9 million, but is virtually empty.

 

Why? Because the people don't have the money to pay for it. There are several similar projects, that are also mostly empty, within a 5 km radius.

 

Why they keep building? Because they get easy money from the banks, because the show must go on.

 

 

 

 

I tried to answer your question and you've become abusive, on to my ignore list you go - byee.

Just now, simoh1490 said:

I tried to answer your question and you've become abusive, on to my ignore list you go - byee.

Been waiting for that since ages, Mr self proclaimed financial expert.

26 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

Thank you for your detailed explanation. I know it is hypothetical but it is interesting to imagine what would happen to the THB if those currency controls were relaxed or removed altogether and the vultures returned. 

That kinda goes in the direction of wondering whether the likes of Soros actually help a country or not, if by attacking the currency at the first opportunity and making lots of money as a result, does any of that have a positive effect on that country's economy in the longer term, lessons learned and all that, dunno.

I'm confused: is the accusation that the baht is being kept too low? or too high?

 

Are they saying it should be 25 baht to the dollar, or 35?

 

 

36 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

I'm confused: is the accusation that the baht is being kept too low? or too high?

 

Are they saying it should be 25 baht to the dollar, or 35?

 

 

Whoever wrote the article is very confused.

A post containing an aberrant misspelling of Trump's name has been removed.

6 hours ago, KiwiKiwi said:

Indeed Thailand is a very small goldfish bowl where the goldfish aren't very bright so when the chief goldfish says there isn't a better goldfish bowl in the whole wide world, well, they naturally believe him.

 

Mugs.

I share your sentiments - but to be fair, the Thais have, from day one, been kept down and brainwashed with ridiculous and unrelenting levels of propaganda. There was an extraordinary display of public 'group think' and sartorial colour conformism in recent years (no questions asked or allowed), and as for the Thai education system, it has been deliberately kept very low, so that people CANNOT think or QUESTION.

 

All this is unlike the Thai baht - which is seemingly being kept pretty high (through some sort of dodgy and behind-the-scenes means, I suspect). But I am no economist - so I may well be wrong on this!

7 minutes ago, Eligius said:

I share your sentiments - but to be fair, the Thais have, from day one, been kept down and brainwashed with ridiculous and unrelenting levels of propaganda. There was an extraordinary display of public 'group think' and sartorial colour conformism in recent years (no questions asked or allowed), and as for the Thai education system, it has been deliberately kept very low, so that people CANNOT think or QUESTION.

 

All this is unlike the Thai baht - which is seemingly being kept pretty high (through some sort of dodgy and behind-the-scenes means, I suspect). But I am no economist - so I may well be wrong on this!

 

"the Thai education system, it has been deliberately kept very low, so that people CANNOT think or QUESTION".

 

For the love of dear God! So how do the Thai doctors and surgeons manage to get trained and end up saving countless lives as a result; how do Thai academics achieve their status and standing; how do Thai graduates get accepted for Masters and Doctorates at Oxbridge and Ivy League universities; how do Thai business leaders develop large multi-national companies without that education! 

9 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

"the Thai education system, it has been deliberately kept very low, so that people CANNOT think or QUESTION".

 

For the love of dear God! So how do the Thai doctors and surgeons manage to get trained and end up saving countless lives as a result; how do Thai academics achieve their status and standing; how do Thai graduates get accepted for Masters and Doctorates at Oxbridge and Ivy League universities; how do Thai business leaders develop large multi-national companies without that education! 

How many Thais get to go to a decent university and why is it that the only decent universities are not in Thailand?

 

Eligius is quite right, suppressing the education system has been going on for decades. I know it, he knows it and anyone who has ever had anything to do with the Thai education system knows it.

 

But you say oitherwise, and I wonder why that is. Of course everyone is entitled to an opinion but opinions that vary significantly from the norm are suspect, and everyone also has a right to doubt an opinion if there is good cause. In this case it's your opinion that doesn't fit very well with the known facts.

 

If we wait long enough you'll probably hold up the 'geniuses' who score gold medals in the 'olympiads' as proof of the superior Thai education system, even though the 'olympiads' have been completely discredited for a long time.

 

'Thai doctors'? ye Gods and little fishes. Have you ever been to a Thai doctor for something other than a runny nose (for which they will probably prescribe  muscle relaxant, paracetamol and amoxyl, same as for most things because they get commissions and ignore the fact that most runny noses are viral and viruses do not respond to any of the above medications.

Edited April 24, 20188 yr by KiwiKiwi

9 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

How many Thais get to go to a decent uiversity and why is it that the only decent universities are not in Thailand?

There's over 25,000 universities in the world, Thailand has five in the top 1,000, two in the top 300. Does being a graduate from the 300th best university in the world make you an inferior scholar; does being the 500th best university in the world make you a crap university; do good and capable students only come from the top ten universities in the world; what is your definition of "decent" because business and hospitals globally rate Chulakorn, Mahidol and CMU graduates very highly and their graduates are seen in companies and hospitals around the world.

 

Edit to include listings site and 500 to 300: https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2018

Edited April 24, 20188 yr by simoh1490

9 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

There's over 25,000 universities in the world, Thailand has five in the top 1,000, two in the top 300. Does being a graduate from the 300th best university in the world make you an inferior scholar; does being the 500th best university in the world make you a crap university; do good and capable students only come from the top ten universities in the world; what is your definition of "decent" because business and hospitals globally rate Chulakorn, Mahidol and CMU graduates very highly and their graduates are seen in companies and hospitals around the world.

 

Edit to include listings site and 500 to 300: https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings/world-university-rankings/2018

Okaayyy

 

 

It's off-topic anyway and I have a policy of not perpetuating off-topic comments. So does TV.

 

8 hours ago, mikebell said:

Can you believe the word of a Thai banker?  I said Banker.

Yes, in this case I can.  Do you see a flaw in his explanations?

9 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

If anyone is a currency manipulator it's the US, the Fed. has purposely devalued USD by 10% in order to make their exports more attractive and this improves the exchange rates against overseas currencies - I don't see Thailand keeping their currency low, how can they possibly do that when the yardstick against which it is measured is falling like a stone! BOT has been actively trying to weaken THB but it's a losing battle, perhaps higher oil prices will help that.

You're pretty specific with your numbers here.  Any evidence supporting this purposeful devaluation by 10% (against a weighted basket of currencies I assume, not against the Thai Baht).  Increasing interest rates and winding down its balance sheet as the Fed is currently doing would have the opposite side effect on exchange rates.  The US Fed does not target exchange rates.

Edited April 24, 20188 yr by metisdead
Please do not modify someone else's post in your quoted reply, either with font or color changes or wording.

22 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

How many Thais get to go to a decent university and why is it that the only decent universities are not in Thailand?

 

Eligius is quite right, suppressing the education system has been going on for decades. I know it, he knows it and anyone who has ever had anything to do with the Thai education system knows it.

 

But you say oitherwise, and I wonder why that is. Of course everyone is entitled to an opinion but opinions that vary significantly from the norm are suspect, and everyone also has a right to doubt an opinion if there is good cause. In this case it's your opinion that doesn't fit very well with the known facts.

 

If we wait long enough you'll probably hold up the 'geniuses' who score gold medals in the 'olympiads' as proof of the superior Thai education system, even though the 'olympiads' have been completely discredited for a long time.

 

'Thai doctors'? ye Gods and little fishes. Have you ever been to a Thai doctor for something other than a runny nose (for which they will probably prescribe  muscle relaxant, paracetamol and amoxyl, same as for most things because they get commissions and ignore the fact that most runny noses are viral and viruses do not respond to any of the above medications.

If your agenda is simply to bash all things Thai, say so and I'll leave you to it. But if you're posting what you think are facts then I won't, on topic or off! Assuming the latter:

 

yes, I have been to see a Thai doctor about serious medical conditions, I've had one probe around the inside of my heart for goodness sake. Here's a list of doctors employed by Bumrungrad hospital in Bangkok, it lists the CV's of all their doctors. Take a scan through and tell me again these are not serious well trained, world class medical professionals.  https://www.bumrungrad.com/en/meet-our-doctors-thailand

2 minutes ago, OldSiamHand said:

You're pretty specific with your numbers here.  Any evidence supporting this purposeful devaluation by 10% (against a weighted basket of currencies I assume, not against the Thai Baht).  Increasing interest rates and winding down its balance sheet as the Fed is currently doing would have the opposite side effect on exchange rates.  The US Fed does not target exchange rates.

Earlier on I posted a link to the US Dollar Index, it is currently at 90 whereas one year ago it was at 100, that's a 10% fall. The DI does not consider exchange rates, it is the mechanism that values the USD in isolation, exchange rates are set using that value.

Just now, OldSiamHand said:

You're pretty specific with your numbers here.  Any evidence supporting this purposeful devaluation by 10% (against a weighted basket of currencies I assume, not against the Thai Baht).  Increasing interest rates and winding down its balance sheet as the Fed is currently doing would have the opposite side effect on exchange rates.  The US Fed does not target exchange rates.

I think you'll find that every country manipulates currency to the extent that they have the skills and greed and to the extent that their currency carries sufficient weight.

 

I used to think that the Thai baht was falsely kept high, but then someone who knows more than I do about foreign exchange and economics (not hard to know more than me on those 2 topics) showed me that the Thai Baht just isn't important enough to affect most strong currencies and to look for other factors. Turns out he was right..

 

3 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

If your agenda is simply to bash all things Thai, say so and I'll leave you to it. But if you're posting what you think are facts then I won't, on topic or off! Assuming the latter:

 

yes, I have been to see a Thai doctor about serious medical conditions, I've had one probe around the inside of my heart for goodness sake. Here's a list of doctors employed by Bumrungrad hospital in Bangkok, it lists the CV's of all their doctors. Take a scan through and tell me again these are not serious well trained, world class medical professionals.  https://www.bumrungrad.com/en/meet-our-doctors-thailand

Gawd. How many are there on the list? Then how many doctors qualify and work in Thailand. Spot the flaw in claiming Bumrungrad hospital medics are representative of Thai doctors?

 

There are probably honest coppers in Thailand as well, but that means nothing. Nothing at all and everyone knows it. And yes, the post is off-topic, so...

 

Over and out.

5 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

Gawd. How many are there on the list? Then how many doctors qualify and work in Thailand. Spot the flaw in claiming Bumrungrad hospital medics are representative of Thai doctors?

 

There are probably honest coppers in Thailand as well, but that means nothing. Nothing at all and everyone knows it. And yes, the post is off-topic, so...

 

Over and out.

They are all employed in Thailand virtually all are Thai. If you like we can repeat the exercise using any one of a dozen or more hospitals in Thailand, Bumrungrad just happened to be the easiest to demonstrate the point.

9 hours ago, ChrisY1 said:

 

The economy is tanking....there's almost zero growth..

I beg to differ

53 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Earlier on I posted a link to the US Dollar Index, it is currently at 90 whereas one year ago it was at 100, that's a 10% fall. The DI does not consider exchange rates, it is the mechanism that values the USD in isolation, exchange rates are set using that value.

Agreed that it has weakened by 10%, but to say that the fall was engineered by the Fed is another thing.  Even if all economies were created equal with central banks having the same monetary policy and governments having the same fiscal policy, you would see changes in exchange rates over time.

55 minutes ago, KiwiKiwi said:

I think you'll find that every country manipulates currency to the extent that they have the skills and greed and to the extent that their currency carries sufficient weight.

 

I used to think that the Thai baht was falsely kept high, but then someone who knows more than I do about foreign exchange and economics (not hard to know more than me on those 2 topics) showed me that the Thai Baht just isn't important enough to affect most strong currencies and to look for other factors. Turns out he was right..

 

For the Thai baht to be kept falsely high would require massive sales of foreign reserves.  Far easier for a middling economy like Thailand's to keep the currency low by buying foreign reserves.  It's been doing just that, however, and yet the currency strengthens.  Funny thing monetary policy.

10 hours ago, Sealbash said:

Other than wanting to have the distinction of the first Thai bash on this thread, do you have any factual evidence as to where the BoT has made any moves to manipulate yet he currency?


Sent from my iPad using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

What a barrel of laughs you must be, do you always take everything so literally?

2 minutes ago, OldSiamHand said:

For the Thai baht to be kept falsely high would require massive sales of foreign reserves.  Far easier for a middling economy like Thailand's to keep the currency low by buying foreign reserves.  It's been doing just that, however, and yet the currency strengthens.  Funny thing monetary policy.

Over 60% of Thai export bills are settled in USD, the remainder in any one of 23 other currencies. As exporters are paid in foreign currency they convert that holding into THB via the BOT, BOT then adds that foreign currency to their foreign currency reserves. As a result of those things, demand was placed on THB hence it's value increased, plus the value of BOT's foreign currency reserves also increased.

12 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

But what's being missed or rather overlooked in the case of China for example is the degree to which China buys US Treasuries and supports US businesses in China - GM sells more cars in China than it does in the US, the problem is that GM makes those cars in China rather than importing them from the US. 

 

As for Thailand, I really don't think there's any dumping taking place, Thailand is a developing nation hence its prices are/were cheap and western countries wanted to but at those prices, is it really Thailands fault that US prices are so high by comparison and it's not cost-effective for Thailand to import more from them.

 

Be reasonable, China buys US Treasuries, because they have to park their money some place.  I mean they could buy Treasuries from Venezuela or Turkey.  I mean Erdogan is begging for foreign direct investment.

 

As for the high price of US products in Thailand some of that is due to Thailand's border adjustment taxes.  When Thai exports enter the US and get hit with 2 to 3% taxes and US products get hit with 40% taxes, this explains some of this disparity.

 

Now, I don't want you to think I'm just picking on Thailand.  Germany plays the same game!  Their VW's, Audi's, BMW's and Mercedes enter the US paying 2 to 3%, but US cars going into Germany 24 - 28%.  According to the EU this is "free trade", but NOT to Trump.  The current EU argument seems to be... it's working just fine so Trump don't disrupt. 

 

59 minutes ago, Watchful said:

 

Be reasonable, China buys US Treasuries, because they have to park their money some place.  I mean they could buy Treasuries from Venezuela or Turkey.  I mean Erdogan is begging for foreign direct investment.

 

As for the high price of US products in Thailand some of that is due to Thailand's border adjustment taxes.  When Thai exports enter the US and get hit with 2 to 3% taxes and US products get hit with 40% taxes, this explains some of this disparity.

 

Now, I don't want you to think I'm just picking on Thailand.  Germany plays the same game!  Their VW's, Audi's, BMW's and Mercedes enter the US paying 2 to 3%, but US cars going into Germany 24 - 28%.  According to the EU this is "free trade", but NOT to Trump.  The current EU argument seems to be... it's working just fine so Trump don't disrupt. 

 

USD is a reserve currency so when a country is looking to invest overseas and build foreign currency reserves, it only makes sense to target US financial instruments, that's a very reasonable and sensible thing to do. 

 

The US car tax you cite is not only for US cars, it's a tax on all cars other than the ones that are produced here. It's perhaps not an entirely free market concept but the idea that Thailand should protect its jobs market (and its economy) by allowing a tax-free concession to Japanese car companies based here is a sound one I reckon. I suspect that Germany is doing the same thing, protecting their homegrown industries, their jobs market and their economy and nobody can argue with that. If Ford and GM want to establish car plants in Germany or in Thailand for that matter, I'm certain that tax would go away very quickly.

31 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

USD is a reserve currency so when a country is looking to invest overseas and build foreign currency reserves, it only makes sense to target US financial instruments, that's a very reasonable and sensible thing to do. 

 

The US car tax you cite is not only for US cars, it's a tax on all cars other than the ones that are produced here. It's perhaps not an entirely free market concept but the idea that Thailand should protect its jobs market (and its economy) by allowing a tax-free concession to Japanese car companies based here is a sound one I reckon. I suspect that Germany is doing the same thing, protecting their homegrown industries, their jobs market and their economy and nobody can argue with that. If Ford and GM want to establish car plants in Germany or in Thailand for that matter, I'm certain that tax would go away very quickly.

 

Your point about "NOT entirely free market" is a valid one.  Trump could say to Thailand, if you want to continue to sell car parts in the US market, you'll just have to build parts manufacturing plants in the US.

 

Merkel and Trump butt heads regularly over  NATO and German taxes on American produced goods.  He is just likely to tell Merkel if you want to sell BMW's in the US, you'll just have to manufacture them in the US.

 

Merkel then complains that this is contrary to free trade!

 

Frankly, I don't see this getting resolved anytime soon.  Everybody wants access to the US market, but nobody wants to reciprocate. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Watchful said:

 

Your point about "NOT entirely free market" is a valid one.  Trump could say to Thailand, if you want to continue to sell car parts in the US market, you'll just have to build parts manufacturing plants in the US.

 

Merkel and Trump butt heads regularly over  NATO and German taxes on American produced goods.  He is just likely to tell Merkel if you want to sell BMW's in the US, you'll just have to manufacture them in the US.

 

Merkel then complains that this is contrary to free trade!

 

Frankly, I don't see this getting resolved anytime soon.  Everybody wants access to the US market, but nobody wants to reciprocate. 

 

 

I, on the other hand, see this being resolved very soon, everyone has far too much to lose from it if it's allowed to continue. It's all well and good to be a blowhard and be bellicose but the reality is that the US has more to lose from this trade war than anyone, and everyone knows that.