3 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Rubbish!  https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=5Y

Amazing you don't see the spike in currency rate since May 2014 (not 2013). You also questioning the conventional wisdom on reasons for currency fluctuation. 

3 minutes ago, Watchful said:

Ok, select a 3 month period and you see exactly the same trend.

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

 

Frankly, I don't know why 10 year treasuries were so low for so long, but clearly the underlying US economy appears to be gaining some serious momentum. Some indeed are cautioning that it is overheating.

 

I don't know.  I still see way too many shuttered factories and the US labor participation rate while improving is still very low. I think we have plenty of slack that this can continue for quite a while without any real fear of overheating.

If you're looking for a trend in foreign exchange direction then anything less than a 200 MA is pointless, it's just noise rather than an indication of true direction. 

 

Looking at EUR/USD over one year shows a range and direction of 1.09 to 1.24, the corresponding US Dollar Index fell from over 100 to 89 during the same period, swings and roundabouts.

1 minute ago, Eric Loh said:

Amazing you don't see the spike in currency rate since May 2014 (not 2013). You also questioning the conventional wisdom on reasons for currency fluctuation. 

The reasons you stated for currency fluctuation are correct but I could get that far into your post because I was hit the face by this nonsense that all the foreign funds left Thailand in May 2014 and as a result the baht fell to 35....it didn't and the graph I posted shows it didn't.

6 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

The reasons you stated for currency fluctuation are correct but I could get that far into your post because I was hit the face by this nonsense that all the foreign funds left Thailand in May 2014 and as a result the baht fell to 35....it didn't and the graph I posted shows it didn't.

Not sure why Prayut made this plead.

Thai junta beseeches foreign investors: 'Please come now'

 

 

Just now, Eric Loh said:

Not sure why Prayut made this plead.

Thai junta beseeches foreign investors: 'Please come now'

 

 

You're off topic, way off. 

 

You wrote that foreign funds flowed out of Thailand and the value of THB fell with the coup in 2014, they didn't and it didn't, end of story. If you want get on your usual anti-junta bandwagon, go start a thread on the subject, this one's about THB..

Exactly how does a relatively small country such as Thailand manipulate currency?  What are the mechanics involved?  While I can imagine many reasons for and against why a country may want to manipulate currency, how could Thailand do it?

11 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You're off topic, way off. 

 

You wrote that foreign funds flowed out of Thailand and the value of THB fell with the coup in 2014, they didn't and it didn't, end of story. If you want get on your usual anti-junta bandwagon, go start a thread on the subject, this one's about THB..

Back to your chart. Perhaps you can explain the reasons why the Baht in 2013 average around 30B/USD and started to depreciate end 2013 (shutdown) culminating to around 33B/USD in May 2014 (coup). Maybe I can learn something from you. 

4 minutes ago, gk10002000 said:

Exactly how does a relatively small country such as Thailand manipulate currency?  What are the mechanics involved?  While I can imagine many reasons for and against why a country may want to manipulate currency, how could Thailand do it?

The BOT would need to sell Baht and buy USD and that would cause THB to weaken. Another way might be to lift all currency controls and leave THB at the mercy of foreign currency speculators who would start to attack it and force a devaluation. A third way might be if their export or tourism business went into decline and the budget and trade surplus went negative. A final way that I can think of is if they place controls over FDI, any overseas investment money coming into Thailand became taxable unless held here for a minimum period - they tried that once and it didn't work out too well but it would do the trick.

59 minutes ago, kaorop said:

not for many many thais, the local economy has been stagnant for years...

Whenever I talk with business owners lately, and then I don't have the mom and pop grocery store around the corner in mind, they all complain that business never has been as bad as since May 2014.

 

Foreign investment has declined rapidly, and however you see thousands of shophouses build ( which all stay empty for years), the construction companies are the ones that are in the biggest trouble.

When you need financial advice, the first place to come to should be Thaivisa.

No! Absolutely not a manipulator of the baht value! All you have to do is write a list of major expenditure against value of the baht at any one time.. To see "no manipulation" is taking place. Manipulation is taking place of every other currency the price of gold, consumer pricing of national controlled commodities and a whole other host of indicators leading to set prices. I think they are doing an excellent job of keeping their stories straight and therefore bringing happiness to the people. Are we fools?

2 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

Thailand is doing great. Their economy is booming.

Yeah and they manage to sell every last grain of rice each year.

If they are not manipulating the Currencies...Why have a couple of High profile International Banks come out and said they are?...

Good news if you've got bags of cash to exchange into off shore accounts and not so good if your a producer of exports and left sitting on goods you can't sell.my supermarket at home used to sell a few different types of Thai rice,now just one and probably the most expensive one on the shelf.

35 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

The BOT would need to sell Baht and buy USD and that would cause THB to weaken.

 

In reality, does anyone want that much baht?

There's a lot of really smart people in this subforum who know this stuff much better than I. So perhaps they can tell me if I'm correct or not.

 

Thailand is reacting due to the tariffs brought onto China, correct? And those tariffs were due to seveal issues, such as currency manipulation, their own tariffs, and "dumping" to get a monopoly, correct? 

 

But Thailand is only protesting their innocence on the currency manipulation. But, according to my understanding, making their currency stronger means their exports are more expensive and not as competitive, correct? And a stronger baht makes imports from the USA more affordable, correct? So what do they have to fear in regards to a currency manipulation allegation? Or is it simply one official covering his rear for possible actions the USA may take?

 

I have heard of no instances of "dumping" by Thailand, so that wouldn't occur any actions would it?

 

So it just leaves the tariffs that are currently in place with regards to imports. In that instance, doesn't a quid pro quo make sense? 

1 hour ago, janclaes47 said:

Whenever I talk with business owners lately, and then I don't have the mom and pop grocery store around the corner in mind, they all complain that business never has been as bad as since May 2014.

 

Foreign investment has declined rapidly, and however you see thousands of shophouses build ( which all stay empty for years), the construction companies are the ones that are in the biggest trouble.

yes and yet i often travel across the eastern economic corridor and construction of new factories is unfathomable...

maybe like most of us as tourists to expats, companies are blinded for many years to truths of this country, idk?

Edited April 24, 20188 yr by kaorop

If i use my 'crane' index, the future of Thai economy does not look good.

 

1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

The BOT would need to sell Baht and buy USD and that would cause THB to weaken. Another way might be to lift all currency controls and leave THB at the mercy of foreign currency speculators who would start to attack it and force a devaluation. A third way might be if their export or tourism business went into decline and the budget and trade surplus went negative. A final way that I can think of is if they place controls over FDI, any overseas investment money coming into Thailand became taxable unless held here for a minimum period - they tried that once and it didn't work out too well but it would do the trick.

An interesting summation. Thank you. Reference your comments...... "lift all currency controls".

As a layman I am curious to know exactly what those currency controls might be. Also your opinion as to whether they alone could be defined as a form of manipulation. 

4 hours ago, mikebell said:

Can you believe the word of a Thai banker?  I said Banker.

First class crooks

2 hours ago, blackcab said:

 

In reality, does anyone want that much baht?

In the same way that Thailand attracts foreign direct investment because the opportunities exist here that don't exist elsewhere, Thai exports seem to feel they would rather have their earnings in Baht than in another currency. The SET is historically quite stable by comparison to other exchanges that fell during the February correction and government bonds are always sold out very very quickly. So yes, people do want onshore THB which is a major problem for the BOT.

2 hours ago, weegee said:

If they are not manipulating the Currencies...Why have a couple of High profile International Banks come out and said they are?...

You'd need to quote the context of those things weegee in order to get a sensible answer, which banks, when etc?

2 hours ago, janclaes47 said:

Whenever I talk with business owners lately, and then I don't have the mom and pop grocery store around the corner in mind, they all complain that business never has been as bad as since May 2014.

 

Foreign investment has declined rapidly, and however you see thousands of shophouses build ( which all stay empty for years), the construction companies are the ones that are in the biggest trouble.

It is essential to understand what type of business you're talking about, in what sector, where and how long they've existed otherwise the term "business owners" means very little by way of getting a sensible reply.

 

Shop houses and builders really don't have anything to do with the value of THB, neither one influences the value.

 

As for FDI, I haven't looked lately but I will and if I spot something useful I'll comment.

 

56 minutes ago, Cadbury said:

An interesting summation. Thank you. Reference your comments...... "lift all currency controls".

As a layman I am curious to know exactly what those currency controls might be. Also your opinion as to whether they alone could be defined as a form of manipulation. 

THB is not a freely convertible currency, you can't do the same things with THB that you can with say the Pound or the Dollar but that is slowly changing. For example, there's a low limit on the amount of THB that a person can take overseas (50K), recently that was increased to 2 mill. to neighbouring countries and one province in China. Only financial institutions with a Thai banking license can transfer funds overseas and these are closely defined by the BOT, THB cannot be sent as THB, it must be exchanged first. Overseas banks are limited by how much THB they can hold and if they breach these limits they will no longer be able to do business with Thai banks or in Thailand. Those are the key currency controls which are designed to allow the central bank, BOT, to maintain control over the currency and to prevent offshore attacks by speculators.

 

Are those things currency manipulation you ask. Given those controls have been in place since 1997 and given that BOT relaxed them almost every year, I would argue they do not constitute currency manipulation. Instead, I see them as being very firmly in the controls camp, perhaps if Western speculators hadn't attacked the currency in 1997 they might not exist today or indeed be needed at all, but that's water under the bridge, you can, however, understand the mindset of wanting those controls, in light of history..

 

32 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

It is essential to understand what type of business you're talking about, in what sector, where and how long they've existed otherwise the term "business owners" means very little by way of getting a sensible reply.

 

Shop houses and builders really don't have anything to do with the value of THB, neither one influences the value.

 

As for FDI, I haven't looked lately but I will and if I spot something useful I'll comment.

 

Thanks for taking my comment out of its context, again.

 

Did I say that they ahd anything to do with THB value influences?

 

I also made clear that I wasn't talking about small mom and pop businesses, so anyone would have understood that means bigger longer established ones.

 

And here it is for you again, what I actually said,

 

' they all complain that business never has been as bad as since May 2014.

 

You will also see that I mentioned that foreign investment has declined rapidly, and that you can check by yourself from the public available figures and statistics, and that definitely has something to do with the value of a currency.

Let me add, I don't think they keep the Baht low, they are imo instead preventing it from falling through the bottom.

Edited April 24, 20188 yr by janclaes47

5 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

THB is not a freely convertible currency, you can't do the same things with THB that you can with say the Pound or the Dollar but that is slowly changing. For example, there's a low limit on the amount of THB that a person can take overseas (50K), recently that was increased to 2 mill. to neighbouring countries and one province in China. Only financial institutions with a Thai banking license can transfer funds overseas and these are closely defined by the BOT, THB cannot be sent as THB, it must be exchanged first. Overseas banks are limited by how much THB they can hold and if they breach these limits they will no longer be able to do business with Thai banks or in Thailand. Those are the key currency controls which are designed to allow the central bank, BOT, to maintain control over the currency and to prevent offshore attacks by speculators.

 

Are those things currency manipulation you ask. Given those controls have been in place since 1997 and given that BOT relaxed them almost every year, I would argue they do not constitute currency manipulation. Instead, I see them as being very firmly in the controls camp, perhaps if Western speculators hadn't attacked the currency in 1997 they might not exist today or indeed be needed at all, but that's water under the bridge, you can, however, understand the mindset of wanting those controls, in light of history..

 

Thank you for your detailed explanation. I know it is hypothetical but it is interesting to imagine what would happen to the THB if those currency controls were relaxed or removed altogether and the vultures returned. 

There are so many financial experts when this subject comes up (often) on TV, I wonder if they all live in the Bahamas, Bermuda or Monaco and want to just show off their knowledge about money on a Thai ex-pat social media forum.....or do they live in a dusty village outside Burriram or Korat....?

 

4 minutes ago, janclaes47 said:

Thanks for taking my comment out of its context, again.

 

Did I say that they ahd anything to do with THB value influences?

 

I also made clear that I wasn't talking about small mom and pop businesses, so anyone would have understood that means bigger longer established ones.

 

And here it is for you again, what I actually said,

 

' they all complain that business never has been as bad as since May 2014.

I'm trying very hard to take your question seriously and to answer it. In order to do that I need to understand the nature of the business, what business sector they exist in, manufacturing, tourism etc and how long they have been established. 

 

A long established business owner may complain about their own market sector or they make genereal observations - is that because of an increase in competition that's eating into his market share or is it because people from manufacturing and agriculture are moving into tourism-related business? Or is the business so bad because the baht is strong and the business imports components, without understanding those details it's impossible to answer the question sensibly. BUT if it's just a general across the board whinge that things haven't been this bad since 20xx, it may just be that it's nothing more than complaining without being able to substantiate the complaint, Thai people do like to complain a lot. 

6 minutes ago, lonewolf99 said:

There are so many financial experts when this subject comes up (often) on TV, I wonder if they all live in the Bahamas, Bermuda or Monaco and want to just show off their knowledge about money on a Thai ex-pat social media forum.....or do they live in a dusty village outside Burriram or Korat....?

 

1

Some posters used to work in finance-related fields and have an interest in economics and are keen to help others understand the mechanics of it all. Others don't even begin to understand the meaning of those things so they get by posting sarcastic posts instead.

7 hours ago, geriatrickid said:

It doesn't make sense. If the allegation is that Thailand keeps its baht artificially low, why then are the pages of the forum filled with complaints from foreigners  of how poorly their  home currency does against  the baht.  One would expect an exchange rate that delivered extra baht into the pudgy fingers of us all.

 

My national currency has done rather poorly against the baht and if the central bank is conspiring to keep the baht low, then I would be  grateful if they would do something about my shrinking exchange results.  In plain language, gimme some love y'all.

It doesn't make sense. I agree.  We all thought that it was keeping the baht too high.