1 hour ago, simoh1490 said:

I, on the other hand, see this being resolved very soon, everyone has far too much to lose from it if it's allowed to continue. It's all well and good to be a blowhard and be bellicose but the reality is that the US has more to lose from this trade war than anyone, and everyone knows that.

 

 

And that is where we are going to agree to disagree.  We have all the raw materials we need, including energy reserves.  We have moth balled manufacturing plants.  We are a food exporter. 

 

We can survive an extended trade war.  Which of our trading partners can do the same?  You may think Trump is a blowhard and bellicose, but play hard ball with him and the trade "fixes" will be implemented.

 

Now  NOT tariffs, because these are commodity specific and punish the good guys as well as the bad.  NO something far more complex like border adjustment taxes equal to the maximum tax you apply to American products.  That is, country specific taxes.

7 minutes ago, Watchful said:

And that is where we are going to agree to disagree.  We have all the raw materials we need, including energy reserves.  We have moth balled manufacturing plants.  We are a food exporter. 

 

We can survive an extended trade war.  Which of our trading partners can do the same?  You may think Trump is a blowhard and bellicose, but play hard ball with him and the trade "fixes" will be implemented.

 

Now  NOT tariffs, because these are commodity specific and punish the good guys as well as the bad.  NO something far more complex like border adjustment taxes equal to the maximum tax you apply to American products.  That is, country specific taxes.

trump is bought and sold by russian olies, to think hes making the us great is total bs and trade wars are a front.

11 minutes ago, Watchful said:

And that is where we are going to agree to disagree.  We have all the raw materials we need, including energy reserves.  We have moth balled manufacturing plants.  We are a food exporter. 

 

We can survive an extended trade war.  Which of our trading partners can do the same?  You may think Trump is a blowhard and bellicose, but play hard ball with him and the trade "fixes" will be implemented.

 

Now  NOT tariffs, because these are commodity specific and punish the good guys as well as the bad.  NO something far more complex like border adjustment taxes equal to the maximum tax you apply to American products.  That is, country specific taxes.

The problem is your debt, you need people to buy it and if you upset everyone by creating a hostile trade environment that will be problematic.

17 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Over 60% of Thai export bills are settled in USD, the remainder in any one of 23 other currencies. As exporters are paid in foreign currency they convert that holding into THB via the BOT, BOT then adds that foreign currency to their foreign currency reserves. As a result of those things, demand was placed on THB hence it's value increased, plus the value of BOT's foreign currency reserves also increased.

Sure, and that's been going on for ages and is one factor surely considered by the BOT.  There is also a similar effect from tourism that may be even greater.  Tourists buy THB with foreign currency at banks and money exchanges.  These banks and money exchanges then retain the foreign currency or convert into THB via the BOT, BOT then adds that foreign currency to their foreign currency reserves.

1 hour ago, OldSiamHand said:

Sure, and that's been going on for ages and is one factor surely considered by the BOT.  There is also a similar effect from tourism that may be even greater.  Tourists buy THB with foreign currency at banks and money exchanges.  These banks and money exchanges then retain the foreign currency or convert into THB via the BOT, BOT then adds that foreign currency to their foreign currency reserves.

Yes, similar thing but not greater. Tourism represents about 22% of GDP whilst exports represent around 63%. And the only exchange that counts as far as the Baht exchange rate is concerned is where USD is sold for THB, tourists selling say Dinars or Roubles for THB don't change the THB/USD rate, they merely increase the foreign currency reserves. It's for that reason that exports are the main culprit since export bills are settled in USD, or at least 65% of them are, other currencies received from tourism merely go into the BOT foreign reserves which are expressed in USD but actually contain over 20 different currencies.

2 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Yes, similar thing but not greater. Tourism represents about 22% of GDP whilst exports represent around 63%. 

Tourism is treated as a part of exports in a country's capital accounts.

9 minutes ago, OldSiamHand said:

Tourism is treated as a part of exports in a country's capital accounts.

We had this discussion very recently, poster OldHippy will be along shortly to challenge you on that, the overwhelming consensus was that as far as GDP distribution is concerned Tourism is not a considered a part of a country's Exports....you'll forgive me if I don't go there again with you on this point, it got kinda old the last time around, mostly it was the odd accountant poster amongst us who thought it could be so, the economists did not. I'll try and find the link and post it for you to see.

 

Here, start at post 268. https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/955589-baht-depreciation-expected/?do=findComment&comment=12842069

Edited April 25, 20188 yr by simoh1490

19 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

We had this discussion very recently, poster OldHippy will be along shortly to challenge you on that, the overwhelming consensus was that as far as GDP distribution is concerned Tourism is not a considered a part of a country's Exports....you'll forgive me if I don't go there again with you on this point, it got kinda old the last time around, mostly it was the odd accountant poster amongst us who thought it could be so, the economists did not. I'll try and find the link and post it for you to see.

 

Here, start at post 268. https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/955589-baht-depreciation-expected/?do=findComment&comment=12842069

Well, I looked at the first few pages of posts and quickly got lost.  

 

I think all posters involved need a primer on what is meant by GDP and how it is calculated:

 

This is from the US BEA, but most other developed countries follow a similar approach to national accounts:

https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipa_primer.pdf

 

You'll see that you can calculate GDP by a few different ways:  the income approach, the expenditure approach or the value added approach.  All three approaches give you the same GDP results.  When talking about exports, we are in the world of the "expenditure approach" (and the common formula for calculating GDP under this approach of C+I+G+X-M).  Under the "expenditure approach", tourism falls under X (exports).  Here is the most recent accounting of US GDP under the "expenditure approach" which shows tourism(travel) as a component of exports:

 

https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm

 

2 hours ago, OldSiamHand said:

Well, I looked at the first few pages of posts and quickly got lost.  

 

I think all posters involved need a primer on what is meant by GDP and how it is calculated:

 

This is from the US BEA, but most other developed countries follow a similar approach to national accounts:

https://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipa_primer.pdf

 

You'll see that you can calculate GDP by a few different ways:  the income approach, the expenditure approach or the value added approach.  All three approaches give you the same GDP results.  When talking about exports, we are in the world of the "expenditure approach" (and the common formula for calculating GDP under this approach of C+I+G+X-M).  Under the "expenditure approach", tourism falls under X (exports).  Here is the most recent accounting of US GDP under the "expenditure approach" which shows tourism(travel) as a component of exports:

 

https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/trade/tradnewsrelease.htm

 

As said, we've had that discussion and I'm not going there again. This debate is about THB anyway, not the structure of GDP accounts or the means of calculating GDP. Regardless of whichever way you want GDP to be constructed, it doesn't have any bearing on USD/THB since the bulk of USD income is derived from exports rather than from tourists.

20 hours ago, kaorop said:

trump is bought and sold by russian olies, to think hes making the us great is total bs and trade wars are a front.

 

This is kind of way off topic, but are you suggesting all of those sanctions against the Russian "olies" (your word not mine) is really to benefit them?

 

He's is freezing them out of credit markets and contracts with US firms. And this is your idea of paying back the Russians?

20 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

The problem is your debt, you need people to buy it and if you upset everyone by creating a hostile trade environment that will be problematic.

Now here is an area we agree, but only partially. If no foreigners buy debt interest rates will rise and pension funds will start buying government securities again.  The "hit" will show up in the equities markets as pensions reduce equity holdings in favor of high return, low risk government securities.

 

Nevertheless, the spending simply must be brought in line. Trump is correct.  The welfare state must be reformed. Further, the generous welfare benefits just encourage illegal immigration.  That is, sneak your kid to the US and you are set for life.  Next, we have those with no desire to work who have lived on welfare generation after generation.  That must also end. 

3 hours ago, Watchful said:

 

This is kind of way off topic, but are you suggesting all of those sanctions against the Russian "olies" (your word not mine) is really to benefit them?

 

He's is freezing them out of credit markets and contracts with US firms. And this is your idea of paying back the Russians?

yes ot but your not being truthful, stop. watching fox...... on topic does anyone really think the thais that could manipulate wouldnt? they do every other sketchy, imoral, illegal thing to increase their personal wealth at all costs to others...

Edited April 26, 20188 yr by kaorop

22 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

As said, we've had that discussion and I'm not going there again.

Okay, but the discussion you referenced was superficial at best, based on assumptions and feelings rather than simple facts.   No need for further discussion, as a five minute review of what I linked to settles the issue.

5 minutes ago, OldSiamHand said:

Okay, but the discussion you referenced was superficial at best, based on assumptions and feelings rather than simple facts.   No need for further discussion, as a five minute review of what I linked to settles the issue.

You said that you didn't read it, how would you know, if you read through it you will see the discussion gets quite involved in places! For what it's worth, participants in that discussion included some TVF members who have quite exemplary, if not extraordinary economics and financial credentials of long-standing thus your "primer" was not required for most.

23 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

You said that you didn't read it, how would you know, if you read through it you will see the discussion gets quite involved in places! For what it's worth, participants in that discussion included some TVF members who have quite exemplary, if not extraordinary economics and financial credentials of long-standing thus your "primer" was not required for most.

I did slog through the remaining pages.  I'd be surprised if these TVF members had extraordinary economics and financial credentials based on the lack of understanding some very basic economic concepts involved in the expenditure approach to calculating GDP.  Tourist expenditures is a component of exports when calculating GDP under the expediture approach - the "proof is in the pudding" as shown in the breakdown of the BEA's most recent figures.  Surely "facts matter" in the TVF??

10 hours ago, OldSiamHand said:

I did slog through the remaining pages.  I'd be surprised if these TVF members had extraordinary economics and financial credentials based on the lack of understanding some very basic economic concepts involved in the expenditure approach to calculating GDP.  Tourist expenditures is a component of exports when calculating GDP under the expediture approach - the "proof is in the pudding" as shown in the breakdown of the BEA's most recent figures.  Surely "facts matter" in the TVF??

You seem to keep wanting to talk about the structure of GDP accounts and that's not the topic, if you want to talk about Baht I'll continue, otherwise, we're done here.

9 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

You seem to keep wanting to talk about the structure of GDP accounts and that's not the topic, if you want to talk about Baht I'll continue, otherwise, we're done here.

I only bring it up because posts continue to refer to tourism expenditures as being something separate from exports, that's all.

3 hours ago, OldSiamHand said:

I only bring it up because posts continue to refer to tourism expenditures as being something separate from exports, that's all.

I am uncertain whether you are simply trying to be provocative, unnecessarily pedantic or indeed even trolling on this point but in the interests of getting some clarity on the Baht value issue, I'll give this one last shot. Thailands total GDP in 2017 was circa USD 402 bill., of that, about USD237 bill. or 59% represented the value of goods that were exported, adding services to that total brings the value equal to USD 70% of total GDP.   

 http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-10-exports/

 

Tourism contributed 20% or about USD 90 bill. to GDP in 2017.  

https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic-impact-research/countries-2017/thailand2017.pdf 

 

Regardless of how Thailands GDP is computed, it remains appropriate to express both exports and tourism values as percentages of GDP in order to understand their relative importance and to determine growth, as indeed (virtually) everyone does. So when we talk about USD income that is converted into THB which in turn causes the value of THB to rise, the lions share of that income is derived from exports rather than from tourism, regardless of the structure of GDP and its remaining composition.

Edited April 27, 20188 yr by simoh1490

25 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

I am uncertain whether you are simply trying to be provocative, unnecessarily pedantic or indeed even trolling on this point but in the interests of getting some clarity on the Baht value issue, I'll give this one last shot. Thailands total GDP in 2017 was circa USD 402 bill., of that, about USD237 bill. or 59% represented the value of goods that were exported, adding services to that total brings the value equal to USD 70% of total GDP.   

 http://www.worldstopexports.com/thailands-top-10-exports/

 

Tourism contributed 20% or about USD 90 bill. to GDP in 2017.  

https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic-impact-research/countries-2017/thailand2017.pdf 

 

Regardless of how Thailands GDP is computed, it remains appropriate to express both exports and tourism values as percentages of GDP in order to understand their relative importance and to determine growth, as indeed (virtually) everyone does. So when we talk about USD income that is converted into THB which in turn causes the value of THB to rise, the lions share of that income is derived from exports rather than from tourism, regardless of the structure of GDP and its remaining composition.

That all makes sense, as you now qualify export figures to "the value of goods that were exported" and "Adding services to that total".  These do not constitute all "exports" in an economy but just the exports of goods and services (i.e things shipped or activities performed overseas).  Tourism is another "export" for purposes of the national accounts (C+I+G+X-M for those of us who at least went through Economics 101).

4 minutes ago, OldSiamHand said:

That all makes sense, as you now qualify export figures to "the value of goods that were exported" and "Adding services to that total".  These do not constitute all "exports" in an economy but just the exports of goods and services (i.e things shipped or activities performed overseas).  Tourism is another "export" for purposes of the national accounts (C+I+G+X-M for those of us who at least went through Economics 101).