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Italy's efforts to form government fail as president defends euro


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15 minutes ago, The Renegade said:

Well done President Mattarella, a stunningly astute you pulled off.

 

As rivals they polled a combined 53% of votes at the last election. How high will that number jump ?

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-politics-euro-election-analysis/italys-fresh-election-risks-being-referendum-on-euro-idUSKCN1IT1IF

 

If the EU and the € are so great, why would anyone want to leave it ?

The grass is greener, boo hoo, we can't borrow and devalue like before, we are being forced to be prudent although despite this we have still managed to make a pigs dinner of the economy, we want freedom of choice, at least until we are bailed out and the IMF tells us what to do but maybe we can give those pesky investors a haircut, reasons like that maybe.

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Just now, The Renegade said:

You sound very hurt and angry. Are  you now beginning to believe that the Policies of the EU Institutions are actually going to cause the demise of the EU ?

 

Why do you have such difficulty in understanding that investors, financial markets or the EU have no right in interfering with a Countries Democratic process ?

 

 

It is possible that the demise of the EU stands before us but that doesn't make me angry, disappointed yes,worried even. The typical irresponsibility of the latin states is laughable, they mess up their economies and others are to blame. If they exit the Euro, which I doubt, they will have to be bailed out,then the IMF will be blamed, they want to be free with other peoples money. I can imagine that the mafia would be overjoyed at the prospect of leaving the EU, unfettered power again, king maker once more.

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1 minute ago, soalbundy said:

It is possible that the demise of the EU stands before us but that doesn't make me angry, disappointed yes,worried even. The typical irresponsibility of the latin states is laughable, they mess up their economies and others are to blame. If they exit the Euro, which I doubt, they will have to be bailed out,then the IMF will be blamed, they want to be free with other peoples money. I can imagine that the mafia would be overjoyed at the prospect of leaving the EU, unfettered power again, king maker once more.

But if they messed up their economies in their own currency the error of their ways would be self correcting in an efficient and transparent way. The Euro actually makes it much more difficult. In fact, it perversely makes it worse by actually improving the competitive position of the stronger economies.

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2 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

But if they messed up their economies in their own currency the error of their ways would be self correcting in an efficient and transparent way. The Euro actually makes it much more difficult. In fact, it perversely makes it worse by actually improving the competitive position of the stronger economies.

well then let us blame the the prudent well managed economies. At one time while in the EU the Italian economy, for a short time, actually overtook that of the UK, oh good money, let's splurge it out.

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2 hours ago, soalbundy said:

well then let us blame the the prudent well managed economies. At one time while in the EU the Italian economy, for a short time, actually overtook that of the UK, oh good money, let's splurge it out.

f I were blaming prudent well managed economies, why wouldn't I include the UK in that list? Or Sweden? Or Denmark?or Norway? Or Switzerland  It's because I'm not blaming prudent, well managed economies. I'm blaming the Eurozone economy. And if you think that saying that it would be preferable if Italy were to have its own currency is somehow letting Italy off the hook, I would have to say that your thought processes must be paralyzed by a misplaced sense of righteousness.. If Italy had had its own currency, the consequences of its imprudence would have occurrd much more quickly and be very severe. More quickly because bankers wouldn't be betting, as it turn out correctly, that the Eurozone would bail the bankers out if things went badly. (And let's be very clear. The bailout of Greece was actually a bailout of the bankers. 95 percent of the money lent by the Eurozone  to Greece actually was given to the bankers who otherwise would have gone belly up.) And the consequences for Italy would be very severe. Massive inflation and massive erosion of purchasing power. . But the effective devaluation of the lira would mean that Italian exports would become more competitive. And the devaluation if Italy's currency would not have the effect of massively slowing the restructuring of the Italian economy which is an effect of being a member of the Eurozone.

In fact, Italy couldn't have gotten into the state it's in now because lending would have dried up or become much more expensive well before the crash.

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I'm sure there are some well informed contributors who can explain possible outcomes.

 

Right now, this I shall a single if large Euro zone country. If the ECB stops being the purchaser of last resort of Italian bonds, what happens?

 

If public sector salaries and pensions can not be paid, then what?

 

I would appreciate any explanations.

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12 minutes ago, Baerboxer said:

 

At some point there will be a big chaotic mess.

 

Citizens in Eurozone countries are going to wake up that their voting is meaningless. Now, only governments allowed by the ECB and those controlling Brussels will be permitted. An insidious way of getting political control. But the EU powerhouses have realized controlling the money supply and putting others in your debt makes you the piper - and call the tune they will.

 

The Italian president has seemingly over stepped his powers, for political bias, and must be impeached if Italy is to remain democratic. Otherwise, we are seeing how the EU countries will all be governed in the future and only allowed to elect 'approved" governments.

I really meant an analysis of possible outcomes. You see Italy has massive debt - 128% of GDP? It's all very well for rightwingers to demand tax cuts and antiestablishment loonies to promise lowered retirement age, massive infrastructure investment and guaranteed incomes for all but who is to pay for it? I'm sure the Italians would also like free Barolo and subsidised Grappa!

 

I don't think the President had a choice. He has a duty to the country first

 

Now, again, what happens if ECB stops buying up Italian bonds? What if they have to adopt a new Euro? Will we have Italian refugees flooding north? Will I be able to buy an Alfa Giulia Veloce for ten quid?

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21 hours ago, soalbundy said:

You can't have your born nationality cancelled, he did warn the party that he wasn't a rubber stamp and would do his duty in the interests of the country, it's his job. He also said that he wouldn't sign any financial statutes that weren't balanced, the coalitions financial policies are anything but balanced.

It depends on which country you were born in. My country of birth annulled my citizenship in 1984.

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1 hour ago, Knee Jerk Reaction said:

It depends on which country you were born in. My country of birth annulled my citizenship in 1984.

Usually, if that happens it's when you acquire citizenship from another country. Some countries have strict exclusionary laws about that. I don't think that's what Soalbundy is referring to.

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2 hours ago, Grouse said:

I really meant an analysis of possible outcomes. You see Italy has massive debt - 128% of GDP? It's all very well for rightwingers to demand tax cuts and antiestablishment loonies to promise lowered retirement age, massive infrastructure investment and guaranteed incomes for all but who is to pay for it? I'm sure the Italians would also like free Barolo and subsidised Grappa!

 

I don't think the President had a choice. He has a duty to the country first

 

Now, again, what happens if ECB stops buying up Italian bonds? What if they have to adopt a new Euro? Will we have Italian refugees flooding north? Will I be able to buy an Alfa Giulia Veloce for ten quid?

Well, rhetoric aside, he did have a choice. And now that he's made this one, most likely he's only strengthened the Lega and possibly 5 star. So next time, they may well have strength to vote him out of office. 

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3 hours ago, bristolboy said:

f I were blaming prudent well managed economies, why wouldn't I include the UK in that list? Or Sweden? Or Denmark?or Norway? Or Switzerland  It's because I'm not blaming prudent, well managed economies. I'm blaming the Eurozone economy. And if you think that saying that it would be preferable if Italy were to have its own currency is somehow letting Italy off the hook, I would have to say that your thought processes must be paralyzed by a misplaced sense of righteousness.. If Italy had had its own currency, the consequences of its imprudence would have occurrd much more quickly and be very severe. More quickly because bankers wouldn't be betting, as it turn out correctly, that the Eurozone would bail the bankers out if things went badly. (And let's be very clear. The bailout of Greece was actually a bailout of the bankers. 95 percent of the money lent by the Eurozone  to Greece actually was given to the bankers who otherwise would have gone belly up.) And the consequences for Italy would be very severe. Massive inflation and massive erosion of purchasing power. . But the effective devaluation of the lira would mean that Italian exports would become more competitive. And the devaluation if Italy's currency would not have the effect of massively slowing the restructuring of the Italian economy which is an effect of being a member of the Eurozone.

In fact, Italy couldn't have gotten into the state it's in now because lending would have dried up or become much more expensive well before the crash.

were the Greek bankers lending to Greeks who didn't pay back the loans?

Without the Euro the Italians would have done what they do, devalue. Italy is a good case why Brussels /Macron want more integration, forced prudence. Greece seems to be on the way to recovery now.

Anyway somebody would have had to,or will, dictate to them, either the EU or the IMF, a beggar can only beg for money he can't decide how much or on what terms, in the end finance and the markets will always trump ideology, only the well heeled politicians care for ideology, the working man wants food and a roof over his head.

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2 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

At some point there will be a big chaotic mess.

 

Citizens in Eurozone countries are going to wake up that their voting is meaningless. Now, only governments allowed by the ECB and those controlling Brussels will be permitted. An insidious way of getting political control. But the EU powerhouses have realized controlling the money supply and putting others in your debt makes you the piper - and call the tune they will.

 

The Italian president has seemingly over stepped his powers, for political bias, and must be impeached if Italy is to remain democratic. Otherwise, we are seeing how the EU countries will all be governed in the future and only allowed to elect 'approved" governments.

No, he hasn't overstepped his powers. This kind of thing has been done before. That said, it was a bad idea. I believe this tactic by the President will ultimately fail and make things worse.

Well, it was one thing for the Eurozone powers to threaten Greece. Quite another to threaten Italy. There's on old joke that roughly applies to this situation which most likely you're familiar with. If you owe your banker 50 billion Euros, he owns you. If you owe him several trillion, (or whatever Italy's debt is) you own him.

Many of the economic problems that are blamed on the EU are actually Eurozone problems.  It would be on balance, a good thing if Italy were able to exit from it.

Of course, that doesn't exempt the EU. According to its rules, refugees are the responsibility of the country whose soil they first land on. Obviously all the EU nations should bear responsibility for funding the costs incurred by refugees, if in fact, it is a free trade zone with freedom of movement.

 

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1 minute ago, soalbundy said:

were the Greek bankers lending to Greeks who didn't pay back the loans?

Without the Euro the Italians would have done what they do, devalue. Italy is a good case why Brussels /Macron want more integration, forced prudence. Greece seems to be on the way to recovery now.

Anyway somebody would have had to,or will, dictate to them, either the EU or the IMF, a beggar can only beg for money he can't decide how much or on what terms, in the end finance and the markets will always trump ideology, only the well heeled politicians care for ideology, the working man wants food and a roof over his head.

The Italians wouldn't have done anything. The markets would devalue the lira. And why is that a bad thing compared to the achingly slow process of deflation that Greece and Spain have gone through. Do you realize that it took the Eurozone longer to recover from the Great Recession than it did for the region that now encompasses to recover from the Great Depression? Greece and Spain are still in bad shape. Compare their situations to Iceland which also had a huge collapse. They had their own currency, it inflated, they went through a comparatively short period of hardship and are now doing fine. And unlike Euro countries, they could simply refuse to honor the debts of their failed banks. It's important to remember that, for example, in the case of Ireland and Spain, it wasn't government debts that were the problem, it was debts to private lenders who unwisely financed the construction booms. But the Germans and French could impose upon them because of the Euro.

And yes, Greek banks did lend to Greeks as well. Like the other banks, they were counting on the Eurozone to bail them out. Which is exactly what happened.

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8 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Well, rhetoric aside, he did have a choice. And now that he's made this one, most likely he's only strengthened the Lega and possibly 5 star. So next time, they may well have strength to vote him out of office. 

or maybe a shocked Italian public will vote for their wallets this time while their hearts beat for 5 star, happens in France all the time, the first vote puts the communists or Le Pen in the lead but the second decisive vote goes back to the establishment, polls have continually shown that the Italian electorate don't want to loose the Euro.

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3 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

The Italians wouldn't have done anything. The markets would devalue the lira. And why is that a bad thing compared to the achingly slow process of deflation that Greece and Spain have gone through. Do you realize that it took the Eurozone longer to recover from the Great Recession than it did for the region that now encompasses to recover from the Great Depression? Greece and Spain are still in bad shape. Compare their situations to Iceland which also had a huge collapse. They had their own currency, it inflated, they went through a comparatively short period of hardship and are now doing fine. And unlike Euro countries, they could simply refuse to honor the debts of their failed banks. It's important to remember that, for example, in the case of Ireland and Spain, it wasn't government debts that were the problem, it was debts to private lenders who unwisely financed the construction booms. But the Germans and French could impose upon them because of the Euro.

And yes, Greek banks did lend to Greeks as well. Like the other banks, they were counting on the Eurozone to bail them out. Which is exactly what happened.

unlike the UK with RBS. The Euro zone recovery has been described as slow but solidly steady even considering the burdens of Greece,Italy and brexit. Yes the markets would have devalued the Lira and then their imports would become more expensive, I remember during the days of the all powerful DM (no need for the Euro) that Germany stood guaranty for Italy's oil imports otherwise they wouldn't have been sold any.

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10 hours ago, Grouse said:

I'm sure there are some well informed contributors who can explain possible outcomes.

 

Right now, this I shall a single if large Euro zone country. If the ECB stops being the purchaser of last resort of Italian bonds, what happens?

 

If public sector salaries and pensions can not be paid, then what?

 

I would appreciate any explanations.

Late 30's

 

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