11 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Let’s not get too far ahead of reality as Thanathorn and his party will not win the election neither will he be the PM. His party is still new and he is lesser known outside Bangkok. He has to earn the barami with the population in the south and north. He and his party will have to work diligently and maintain their ideology and show the electorate that they have the vision and intellectualism to move Thailand forward to be a government to be considered.

 

IMHO at in the coming election, his party will be mid-size and capable to win 12-15 seats in Bangkok, central and part of the south. PTP will win their incumbent seats at around 220 seats. Together with FFP and CTP, they should gain the majority.

 

It will be interesting if the coalition will have Thammasat law lecturer Khun Piyabutr as Justice Minister whose portfolio will be law reform and Khun Thanathorn as Defense Minister in charge of the military and police. 

Eric-you are kinda fixated about the upcoming elections which,I must remind you,have not actually been announced yet.

 

Thanathorn (and his family) are not stupid so it is about seeking an imprimatur,an approval, so to speak.

 

He has called fora revocation of the current constitution and,let's face it,no-one has batted an eyelid.

 

Make of that what you will.

3 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

Eric-you are kinda fixated about the upcoming elections which,I must remind you,have not actually been announced yet.

 

Thanathorn (and his family) are not stupid so it is about seeking an imprimatur,an approval, so to speak.

Yes, I really hope the Thais will gradually get behind Thanathorn. Honestly, at the present time, I can see no better option for the Thais and Thailand than this idealistic and honourable (as it seems) young  man. Quite honestly, he appears to me to be in a class of his own. No Thai politician here in Thailand comes close to him in terms of brains, charisma and (as it as yet appears) integrity. If I were Thai - I would almost certainly vote for him (if ever a genuine election were to be held!).

1 hour ago, Odysseus123 said:

Possibly...

 

But what happens if Thanatorn has very powerful backers?

 

Remember that in the East power is really exercised by those behind the veiled curtain rather than those in the front.

 

Viziers come and go.

When the military goes after him his present backers if he has many will disappear. He will be left to go down alone.

  Let me relate another story.

  Pitsanulok again.

  There was  young guy  doing quite well. Building resorts opening new restaurants, whole shopping plaza's of small shops etc. One night I went for dinner with an retired army major . I was introduced to a young woman who ask me to go with her the next night to a plaza,that this young man owns I agreed. I think they wanted me to see what was going on,because I had friends who owned shops in the plaza.

 I show up the next night there are 2 Bangkok big wig policemen there we sit with.  Then this young man shows up not the owner his brother. The owner is hiding in the mountains waiting to see how this meeting goes.The police talk t the woman I came with. She talks to the brother of the owner. The police would not even address him had a woman do it.The brother is sweating like a stuffed pig and is nodding and agreeing to every thing that is said. In the end the police let the brother go to tell his brother in hiding to come out. All the properties this man had sat empty for more than a decade. Perhaps 2 decades I quit paying attention.. The man lost it all but was spared his life.

  

20 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

Eric-you are kinda fixated about the upcoming elections which,I must remind you,have not actually been announced yet.

 

Thanathorn (and his family) are not stupid so it is about seeking an imprimatur,an approval, so to speak.

 

He has called fora revocation of the current constitution and,let's face it,no-one has batted an eyelid.

 

Make of that what you will.

However, he may not remain alone. According to the other journal, Chartthaipattana and Pheu Thai also voiced support for this initiative.

17 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

When the military goes after him his present backers if he has many will disappear. He will be left to go down alone.

  Let me relate another story.

  Pitsanulok again.

  There was  young guy  doing quite well. Building resorts opening new restaurants, whole shopping plaza's of small shops etc. One night I went for dinner with an retired army major . I was introduced to a young woman who ask me to go with her the next night to a plaza,that this young man owns I agreed. I think they wanted me to see what was going on,because I had friends who owned shops in the plaza.

 I show up the next night there are 2 Bangkok big wig policemen there we sit with.  Then this young man shows up not the owner his brother. The owner is hiding in the mountains waiting to see how this meeting goes.The police talk t the woman I came with. She talks to the brother of the owner. The police would not even address him had a woman do it.The brother is sweating like a stuffed pig and is nodding and agreeing to every thing that is said. In the end the police let the brother go to tell his brother in hiding to come out. All the properties this man had sat empty for more than a decade. Perhaps 2 decades I quit paying attention.. The man lost it all but was spared his life.

  

This is so slovenly expressed and generally obtuse that it's difficult to understand what point is being made.As it stands it's just vague bar talk.

3 minutes ago, candide said:

However, he may not remain alone. According to the other journal, Chartthaipattana and Pheu Thai also voiced support for this initiative.

Exactly.

 

And not a peep out of the Thai media really.They are too busy talking about monks-who General Prayuth has been forced to apologize to.

 

I reckon there's a right old frenzy going on at Gov't House at the moment.

5 hours ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

The Nation is a dreadful rag but remember they've had a change of ownership. Perhaps some professionalism came riding in on the back of that. Time will tell., though I think the opportunistic leopard will not change it's spots, certainly not easily...

From what I heard, the new owners are even more "establishment"  than the last lot, which makes it even more interesting that they are coming out with anti-junta editorials. 

31 minutes ago, GarryP said:

From what I heard, the new owners are even more "establishment"  than the last lot, which makes it even more interesting that they are coming out with anti-junta editorials. 

 

Indeed. One of the reasons for my (admittedly) extensive theorising today. Something is definitely up, and I strongly suspect (for this and some other, more arcane reasons), that Prayuth will be a touch depressed today. If he's bright enough to even see, let alone read, the writing on the wall.

 

Now is the time for some more coffee, and I might even allow myself a small bag of popcorn. This ought to be really good and I make no apology for admitting how great my enjoyment is going to be, just watching and smirking  as the rascal's whole world turns to faeces.

5 hours ago, KiwiKiwi said:

Fully agree. With both. He was definitely aiming for the PC and he's going to get a rather large disappointment. I hate to see grown men cry, but in this case I will be hard-pressed to feel any sympathy at all. This man is unfit from the top of his raggy head to the tips of his raggy toes.

 

I only hope that his absence from the line opens up a clear shot by someone at his miserable brother and his even more miserable and grasping brother's wife.The army must clean the stables of it's own soil or perish, this is not 1992, and a certain person on high has been quietly building up military strength of his own for years. I have an odd feeling that some old markers are being called in, not for Mr T's benefit, that time has long gone, but for persons or people close. In general, mothers do not leave their babies...

But for a country such as Thailand, perhaps a dysfunctional military, split by classes/years and geographic groupings is probably for the best. Centralized with one is quite frightening.   

31 minutes ago, GarryP said:

But for a country such as Thailand, perhaps a dysfunctional military, split by classes/years and geographic groupings is probably for the best. Centralized with one is quite frightening.   

 

 

Maybe...

 

Nah. The one thing you can truly say about the idiot brigade is that they do stupid exceedingly well. Imagining one of their colleagues doing stupid even better is really hard.

8 hours ago, baboon said:

Do it on pay-per-view and get Don King to promote it...

I'm in! Where do I sign up?

1 hour ago, Odysseus123 said:

Eric-you are kinda fixated about the upcoming elections which,I must remind you,have not actually been announced yet.

 

Thanathorn (and his family) are not stupid so it is about seeking an imprimatur,an approval, so to speak.

 

He has called fora revocation of the current constitution and,let's face it,no-one has batted an eyelid.

 

Make of that what you will.

True and will be more clearer after we hear

the constitutional court verdict for the last election law. Likely the court will approve or just small amendments. Then the junta will be binded by election law to have the organic election laws submitted for royal approval and preparation for the election. By law it will be 90 + 150 days leading to around Feb. 

 

There are very few wriggle room to delay election. No one will buy any more discovery of armed cache. It will only draw public anger and junta risk backlash in many forms. 

 

Even if the 2 bereavements do unfortunately occurred, it will not affect the election. One is only a senior public servant and unlikely elaborate service. The other will have to follow Buddhist rites and will be a long process of mourning. 

 

There are also pressure from disgruntled establishment who fear the unpopular Prayut may result in chaos. Prayut has overstay their welcome and his bad governance is hurting their pockets too and they fear he has been intoxicated with power.  

9 hours ago, Cadbury said:

Even with unassailable authority Mr. Grumpy is losing his grip on political reality. And just about everyone can see it. I suspect it is even obvious to his toadying cronies and they won't want to back a loser.

Every chance he will go into emotional meltdown before the year is out and the election approaches.

"his toadying cronies"   continue to advise him all is well and he's a shoe-in come elections. Just gotta' keep a cap on them pesky "activists".

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

True and will be more clearer after we hear

the constitutional court verdict for the last election law. Likely the court will approve or just small amendments. Then the junta will be binded by election law to have the organic election laws submitted for royal approval and preparation for the election. By law it will be 90 + 150 days leading to around Feb. 

 

There are very few wriggle room to delay election. No one will buy any more discovery of armed cache. It will only draw public anger and junta risk backlash in many forms. 

 

Even if the 2 bereavements do unfortunately occurred, it will not affect the election. One is only a senior public servant and unlikely elaborate service. The other will have to follow Buddhist rites and will be a long process of mourning. 

 

There are also pressure from disgruntled establishment who fear the unpopular Prayut may result in chaos. Prayut has overstay their welcome and his bad governance is hurting their pockets too and they fear he has been intoxicated with power.  

As always, you make sensible observations, Eric. One thing I would say, though, is that ONE of those possible bereavements would certainly affect the prospect of any election; in fact, it would rule out the whole process of political debate and electioneering (as if the latter is ever going to be truly allowed!) for at the very least a full six months - possibly a year. 

That would suit Prayut and his gang perfectly ...

 

 

I'm not a pro him or a anti-her !....

 

Just that to this day, the immigration police hassle with their red tape and highly hint to get corrupt.

 

The customs are a disaster, cheat and apply their own laws when you import stuff, the police on the road enjoy harassing farangs to get money, the bureaucracy hassles are no better say for a driving licence with their time consuming requests of documents, hassle you just to get a bribe through an agent.....not to mention a general anti farang climate that is being generated from [nowhere].........so well, who can clean this all up ?

 

Of course, for the many  lucky ones, with divine auras and magnetic personnalities, they have obviously never,  never run into any of these  problems in Thailand ?

Prayut's eventual treason trial will be "must see TV".

2 minutes ago, KhunFred said:

Prayut's eventual treason trial will be "must see TV".

If only ....!!!

Just now, Eligius said:

If only ....!!!

I just don't see what you chaps have got against the little guy.

 

I mean..he has moiled,he has toiled..to bring happiness and harmony in a world torn by division and strife and just look at the thanks he gets-you ungrateful cads..

9 hours ago, Eligius said:

Right, JAG. This whole thing ain't going to end pleasantly. There will be a 'car wreck'. Totally avoidable, of course - but the Leader will not step down gracefully. So much is clear ...

yep. I see a dinosaur fighting a losing battle.

7 hours ago, KiwiKiwi said:

 

Personally, I think it's a lot worse than that, and am awaiting the signs that point to a huge and disastrous reversal of backing, and I'm convinced that others, including our friends in Dubai and London also know it's coming. Tears before bedtime for out Mr Childish I fear.

 

Under the bus he is definitely going, and I would not be surprised to see a counter-coup, which will be Thailands last little game of soldiers.

 

I believe that history will record this disaster being laid directly at the door of Prayuth with his family and Mr Piggy withhis watches and both men with their arrogance.

 

Yesterday's men indeed, but the Thai people appear not to much like getting the government they deserve. In the meantime, I only hope the dopey buggers wake up to themselves and start to get a grip. The good Loed knows it would not be before time.

 

 

Too late for a grip, the dinosaurs are holding on by their fingernails and are soon extinct.

Strange is that the upward fallen elite does not realize that and give up their fight. In that case they deserve

what is coming to them soon.

2 hours ago, jayboy said:

This is so slovenly expressed and generally obtuse that it's difficult to understand what point is being made.As it stands it's just vague bar talk.

Ok sorry if it is hard to understand my point. My point is guys here are discussing this as if it is political and discuss who is playing their game the best.

 I am simply trying to show that this is Thailand and power will do as it pleases. Guys can discuss it till eternity but there are no rules here. The ones who have power keep it with force always have always will. So to talk the crap most are here is just that crap talk.

  Thanatorn  and his party may not even make it to the election. It is very possible a witch hunt will see him out.

  It is good to see intellectual discussion but it is senseless regarding  this. Peoples short term memory is very short term. Remember Yingluck wanting to hold an election.It never happened under threat of lost ballot boxes etc. But there was lots of wasted discussion about how the election would turn out. and it ended up no election because that is what the powers that be wanted. 

   So does any one really believe Thanatorn will get any where. We are wasting our time even giving it notice.

   The powers that be want their charter and will keep it. Trouble makers will be ran out simple as that.Many people here do not understand dynasties.

  Political discussion is great but holds no value in Thailand.

4 minutes ago, wabothai said:

Too late for a grip, the dinosaurs are holding on by their fingernails and are soon extinct.

Strange is that the upward fallen elite does not realize that and give up their fight. In that case they deserve

what is coming to them soon.

And to add: Steven 100 was smarter than his rolemodel and pulled out.

5 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

Ok sorry if it is hard to understand my point. My point is guys here are discussing this as if it is political and discuss who is playing their game the best.

 I am simply trying to show that this is Thailand and power will do as it pleases. Guys can discuss it till eternity but there are no rules here. The ones who have power keep it with force always have always will. So to talk the crap most are here is just that crap talk.

  Thanatorn  and his party may not even make it to the election. It is very possible a witch hunt will see him out.

  It is good to see intellectual discussion but it is senseless regarding  this. Peoples short term memory is very short term. Remember Yingluck wanting to hold an election.It never happened under threat of lost ballot boxes etc. But there was lots of wasted discussion about how the election would turn out. and it ended up no election because that is what the powers that be wanted. 

   So does any one really believe Thanatorn will get any where. We are wasting our time even giving it notice.

   The powers that be want their charter and will keep it. Trouble makers will be ran out simple as that.Many people here do not understand dynasties.

  Political discussion is great but holds no value in Thailand.

In general, I think you are very much right.

But there are some strange signs (unexpected signs) of change recently, a change in the direction that the wind is blowing  - so that gives some of us hope (perhaps foolishly!).

3 minutes ago, lovelomsak said:

Ok sorry if it is hard to understand my point. My point is guys here are discussing this as if it is political and discuss who is playing their game the best.

 I am simply trying to show that this is Thailand and power will do as it pleases. Guys can discuss it till eternity but there are no rules here. The ones who have power keep it with force always have always will. So to talk the crap most are here is just that crap talk.

  Thanatorn  and his party may not even make it to the election. It is very possible a witch hunt will see him out.

  It is good to see intellectual discussion but it is senseless regarding  this. Peoples short term memory is very short term. Remember Yingluck wanting to hold an election.It never happened under threat of lost ballot boxes etc. But there was lots of wasted discussion about how the election would turn out. and it ended up no election because that is what the powers that be wanted. 

   So does any one really believe Thanatorn will get any where. We are wasting our time even giving it notice.

   The powers that be want their charter and will keep it. Trouble makers will be ran out simple as that.Many people here do not understand dynasties.

  Political discussion is great but holds no value in Thailand.

Lovelomsak,

 

I understand your point but we must discuss this for it is our birthright to do so.

 

We stop discussing things and we might as well just sit here chorusing "Sanook,sanook..sabai,sabai.." and where the heck does that get us?

 

Besides of which..discussing a fully functioning medieval society in the 21st century does have it's lighter moments,does it not?

12 minutes ago, Odysseus123 said:

We stop discussing things and we might as well just sit here chorusing "Sanook,sanook..sabai,sabai.." and where the heck does that get us?

 

Same place it gets Thais. Under-intelligent, under-educated, over-exploited, generally screwed over and an all-around laughing stock.

 

"Sanook,sanook..sabai,sabai.." LOL nice one. I can't tell you of the image I had when I read that, several of them sat around picking the fleas out of each other's fur and muttering "sabai sabai" furiously to teach other. That image will probably stay with me for a while dammit.

4 hours ago, Eligius said:

Very informative post. I like your phrase (it should be used widely): 'Thana-thorn is a thorn' in the side of the repressive dinosaurs!

I definitely agree with you: if Thanathorn is sincere and genuine (and so far he appears to be), then he will be stopped by Prayut and his junta (if they continue to hold power - which they will do everything possible to ensure).

 

Thanathorn seems to me to represent a whole new face of modern Thailand - a face of fairness, justice, democracy and reason. Whether that face is backed up by substance or is just a mask - remains to be seen. But I must confess that increasingly I am being impressed by Thanathorn's (apparent) principled bravery.

Thanathorn's thorn may very well be the thorn that nails Prajuth's and Prawit's 'çoffin' closed.

1 minute ago, wabothai said:

Thanathorn's thorn may very well be the thorn that nails Prajuth's and Prawit's 'çoffin' closed.

 

 

OOh, something to look forward to as an alternative to the otherwise unending stupidity to be found here.

2 minutes ago, wabothai said:

Thanathorn's thorn may very well be the thorn that nails Prajuth's and Prawit's 'çoffin' closed.

REALLY hope you are right. That would be a whole string of Christmases come early!

Rather more conspiracy theories on this thread than there are actual conspiracies out in the real world, I should think.

 

One of the outstanding signs of the autodidact. Adolf Hitler was a classic example.

9 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

Rather more conspiracy theories on this thread than there are actual conspiracies out in the real world, I should think.

 

One of the outstanding signs of the autodidact. Adolf Hitler was a classic example.

Goodness me..couldn't you at least have quoted Jean-Paul Sartre and 'Nausea'?