Most Thais Think Economy Bad, Getting Worse

[LomSak27]

Just now, simoh1490 said:

You've got it back to front, inflation is a concern for people on fixed income, retirees and similar, people who have jobs get salary increases to compensate.

Which is why expats harp on it ....... got that. The news article was about what thais think of the economy in general .......hmmmmmmm.

[carmine]

On 6/6/2018 at 2:25 PM, spidermike007 said:

One thing about the economy I know for sure, is that inflation is alot higher than the goons in charge are willing to admit. And also, nearly all of the tourist establishments I talk to are complaining. Most say business is nothing like it used to be.

Exactly as i see it and as you say, everyone in the tourist establishments have been feeling the pinch for quite a while now.  Nowhere near what it used to be.

[carmine]

5 hours ago, arithai12 said:

I believe you are not making this up, but what do you expect if you increase the number of tourists by say 30%, and the number of tourist-based businesses by 300%.

Especially if there is a large number of those tourists that do no choose at will but are in package tours where the money flows in pre-arranged directions.

Sorry to say, all i hear for all parties in the tourist sector is that business is nowhere near as good as it used to be.  Is everyone lying?  If so, why would they?  Its an unhappy reality.

[simoh1490]

3 minutes ago, LomSak27 said:

Which is why expats harp on it ....... got that. The news article was about what thais think of the economy in general .......hmmmmmmm.

There are retired Thai's here also, people on fixed income, duh!

[petedk]

1 minute ago, carmine said:

Exactly as i see it and as you say, everyone in the tourist establishments have been feeling the pinch for quite a while now.  Nowhere near what it used to be.

Not only the tourist industry. 

 

Yesterday I was talking to the sales director of a cosmetic company. She was telling me how much sales have dropped the last year or so. She also said that only the well established outlets can survive. Many start ups close down after 2 or 3 months.

 

As for inflation. Two recent examples.

The motorcycle taxis near my home have increased their fares by 50% (not only for me, but for Thais too).. I know the amount (5 baht) is small but 50% is a big increase.

A coffee shop I visit regularly has just increased coffee prices from 50 to 60 Baht. (20 %). The list could go on and on.

 

If I increase my prices by 50% then i would say goodbye to all my customers.

[simoh1490]

Motor cycle taxi fares and coffee shop prices are meaningless indicators of the economy, neither one pays taxes because they don't make enough money hence they are not even in the Thai economy per se.

 

The sales Director is slightly more useful, Elizabeth Arden, Nivea, L'Oreal or similar? But if it was one of the zillion of Thai/Chinese cosmetic companies that have sprung up, it's probably in a similar category as the motor cycle taxi, that space has become overpopulated and many will not survive.!

[mogandave]

Not only the tourist industry. 
 
Yesterday I was talking to the sales director of a cosmetic company. She was telling me how much sales have dropped the last year or so. She also said that only the well established outlets can survive. Many start ups close down after 2 or 3 months.
 
As for inflation. Two recent examples.
The motorcycle taxis near my home have increased their fares by 50% (not only for me, but for Thais too).. I know the amount (5 baht) is small but 50% is a big increase.
A coffee shop I visit regularly has just increased coffee prices from 50 to 60 Baht. (20 %). The list could go on and on.
 
If I increase my prices by 50% then i would say goodbye to all my customers.

Is the article about inflation or the economy?

Clearly if the economy were poor, the motorcycle taxies and the coffee shop would not be able to raise prices so much.

Buffalo harness sales are way down as well...

[mogandave]

I saw no fewer than 20 tower cranes driving downtown this morning...

[Eric Loh]

57 minutes ago, simoh1490 said:

Motor cycle taxi fares and coffee shop prices are meaningless indicators of the economy, neither one pays taxes because they don't make enough money hence they are not even in the Thai economy per se.

 

The sales Director is slightly more useful, Elizabeth Arden, Nivea, L'Oreal or similar? But if it was one of the zillion of Thai/Chinese cosmetic companies that have sprung up, it's probably in a similar category as the motor cycle taxi, that space has become overpopulated and many will not survive.!

Petedk was talking about inflation when referring to rise in motor taxi fares and coffee shop coffee prices. He is right as transportation and food are the primary categories in the total weight in calculating inflation.

 

The drop in cosmetic sales has nothing to do with inflation. 

[Eric Loh]

37 minutes ago, mogandave said:

I saw no fewer than 20 tower cranes driving downtown this morning...

Are we re-visiting 2008 real estate bubble burst. What you think. 

[mogandave]

Are we re-visiting 2008 real estate bubble burst. What you think. 

I think there were more than 20 back then.

But you know, most all those job-sites ultimately got finished-up.

[mogandave]

If you have rising salaries, and rising property values, how can you not have inflation?

[Brunolem]

12 hours ago, Dumbastheycome said:

And   how  much  comment  is there  on the  long term strategy  of  that?   The  greed  is   short term  because  beggars   cannot  pay. So  why?  I  have  no direction  to  understanding  what  is  happening. That the world  is  becoming  strange  is  not  a satisfactory   answer.  

I am not sure I understand your question(s)...

[Eric Loh]

3 minutes ago, mogandave said:

 

I think there were more than 20 back then.

But you know, most all those job-sites ultimately got finished-up.

 

I would venture a guess that all those 20 cranes were for building of condos which are based on build and sell model. In this economic climate, who are the buyers. I advertised to rent my condo which is near Central Lad Prao for nearly a year and still empty now. 

[mogandave]

I would venture a guess that all those 20 cranes were for building of condos which are based on build and sell model. In this economic climate, who are the buyers. I advertised to rent my condo which is near Central Lad Prao for nearly a year and still empty now. 

You (apparently) bought at least one. Plenty of people with plenty of money. I drop my kid off at a downtown government school in the morning and there’s a long line of nice cars dropping kids off. I can only imagine the cars lined up at the expensive international schools.

Unfortunately, if you’ve been trying to rent something for a year without success you either need to change your strategy or lower your price.

My wife is looking to rent a small condo around Siam Square and can’t seem to find anything.

[bkk6060]

16 minutes ago, mogandave said:

If you have rising salaries, and rising property values, how can you not have inflation?

Those are actually two of the more important factors that create inflation.

More money, more spending, more demand, prices go up.

 

 

 

Consumer Confidence: When unemployment is low and wages are stable, consumers are more confident and more likely to spend money. This confidence drives up prices as manufacturers and providers charge more for goods and services that are in high demand. One example is the market for new housing. In a booming economy, people purchase more new houses. Contractors experience greater demand for their services, and they raise their prices to capitalize on that demand. Similarly, the building materials included in the houses also cost more as supplies dwindle and consumers increase what they are willing to pay to complete the project. (For related reading, see: How Inflation and Unemployment Are Related.)

Decreases in Supply: One of the basic causes of inflation is the economic principle of supply and demand. As demand for a particular good or service increases, the available supply decreases. When fewer items are available, consumers are willing to pay more to obtain the item. Supply decreases for several reasons. Oftentimes a natural disaster or environmental effect is at fault for a supply-chain interruption, such as when a tornado destroys a factory or a severe drought kills crops. Supplies also decrease when an item is immensely popular, a phenomenon that frequently is seen when new cellphones or video games are released.

 

[Brunolem]

11 hours ago, AloisAmrein said:

It always ends bad for the people when armies try to run countries. Has been proven in Latin America and even in Europe with the dictatorships in Spain, Portugal and Greece. To run an entire economy of a country is a far bit more difficult then to run an army camp.

But is the army really running this country?

[mogandave]

But is the army really running this country?

No, they are just puppets for the puppet masters!!!

[petedk]

Petedk was talking about inflation when referring to rise in motor taxi fares and coffee shop coffee prices. He is right as transportation and food are the primary categories in the total weight in calculating inflation.
 
The drop in cosmetic sales has nothing to do with inflation. 

I just mentioned these 2 items as they both turned up in conversation yesterday.

I know inflation is not based on these items, but these are just 2 examples.

There are countless other items that have increased in price.

Sent from my BLL-L22 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[simoh1490]

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Petedk was talking about inflation when referring to rise in motor taxi fares and coffee shop coffee prices. He is right as transportation and food are the primary categories in the total weight in calculating inflation.

 

The drop in cosmetic sales has nothing to do with inflation. 

I don't think those things are inflation, that's just people in small businesses deciding they want more money for their goods or services. 

[petedk]

Are we re-visiting 2008 real estate bubble burst. What you think. 

I work with some property evaluators and last year they predicted that there would be a real estate bubble within a couple of years.

Many of the luxury condos being built are bought up by the same investors. Some of these investors are now stopping their investments, but construction continues at full speed.

Sent from my BLL-L22 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[petedk]

I would venture a guess that all those 20 cranes were for building of condos which are based on build and sell model. In this economic climate, who are the buyers. I advertised to rent my condo which is near Central Lad Prao for nearly a year and still empty now. 

Do like Thai people - put the price up.

Joking of course, but that seems to be the Thai model. Both my wife and her sister have property they rent out. If they can't find a tenant, they increase the price and strangely enough succeed every time in finding someone.

Sent from my BLL-L22 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[thaibeachlovers]

On ‎6‎/‎7‎/‎2018 at 1:02 PM, mogandave said:

 

What was the GFC?

Banks print money?
 

 

Google tells you what the GFC was.

The banks don't print money, but criminal bankers invented underhand means to make money from nothing. None were convicted and punished, which says something about the US government of the time.

[mogandave]

Google tells you what the GFC was.
The banks don't print money, but criminal bankers invented underhand means to make money from nothing. None were convicted and punished, which says something about the US government of the time.

Who were some of the “...criminal bankers...” that should have been arrested, and what were a few of the “...underhand means to make money from nothing...” they invented?

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, petedk said:

I know inflation is not based on these items, but these are just 2 examples. 

Food and transportation are the 2 largest components in inflation. Matter of fact, motor taxi constitute almost 20% of the transportation matrix which include private cars, rail etc. 

[JAG]

6 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Motor cycle taxi fares and coffee shop prices are meaningless indicators of the economy, neither one pays taxes because they don't make enough money hence they are not even in the Thai economy per se.

 

The sales Director is slightly more useful, Elizabeth Arden, Nivea, L'Oreal or similar? But if it was one of the zillion of Thai/Chinese cosmetic companies that have sprung up, it's probably in a similar category as the motor cycle taxi, that space has become overpopulated and many will not survive.!

Your second paragraph ( cosmetic sales) rather illustrates the problem with the argument which has ranged over the last twenty odd pages. The OP is about what most Thais think. Only a very small proportion of Thais buy cosmetics from Elizabeth Arden, Nivea or L'Oréal. The vast majority buy from the" zillion of Thai/Chinese cosmetic companies that have sprung up." Similarly, few shop in Robinson's or Central, eat in McDonalds, or have significant amounts invested in the SET, either as individuals or as members of Pension Funds. To use all these as measures of how well the economy is doing, for most Thais, is missing the point.

 

Very very many scratch a living as peasant farmers, supplemented by wages (minimum) from day labouring jobs, often unsure whether they will have any cash next week. Those employed in factories and in construction are usually so miserably paid that they have no surplus cash. They may (do) have little money, little purchasing power and little industrial muscle to improve their lot, but you cannot claim that as they don't  pay taxes because they don't make enough money  they are "not even in the Thai economy per se."

They are just as much part of the economy as the monied are. They are the "most Thais" for whom the economy is not doing well. They are the ones which it is leaving behind. This has huge social and political implications which if not addressed will some day really hurt the economy, and by extension the relatively small number that you might classify as being" in the Thai economy per se."

 

Now some may dismiss that as socialist/communist anti capitalist claptrap. It is neither, I am neither. But I do realise, and I think history has shown that if you ignore such a significant economic underclass, and do not improve their lot, then things have a habit of turning round and biting you on the bum!

[Brunolem]

1 hour ago, JAG said:

Your second paragraph ( cosmetic sales) rather illustrates the problem with the argument which has ranged over the last twenty odd pages. The OP is about what most Thais think. Only a very small proportion of Thais buy cosmetics from Elizabeth Arden, Nivea or L'Oréal. The vast majority buy from the" zillion of Thai/Chinese cosmetic companies that have sprung up." Similarly, few shop in Robinson's or Central, eat in McDonalds, or have significant amounts invested in the SET, either as individuals or as members of Pension Funds. To use all these as measures of how well the economy is doing, for most Thais, is missing the point.

 

Very very many scratch a living as peasant farmers, supplemented by wages (minimum) from day labouring jobs, often unsure whether they will have any cash next week. Those employed in factories and in construction are usually so miserably paid that they have no surplus cash. They may (do) have little money, little purchasing power and little industrial muscle to improve their lot, but you cannot claim that as they don't  pay taxes because they don't make enough money  they are "not even in the Thai economy per se."

They are just as much part of the economy as the monied are. They are the "most Thais" for whom the economy is not doing well. They are the ones which it is leaving behind. This has huge social and political implications which if not addressed will some day really hurt the economy, and by extension the relatively small number that you might classify as being" in the Thai economy per se."

 

Now some may dismiss that as socialist/communist anti capitalist claptrap. It is neither, I am neither. But I do realise, and I think history has shown that if you ignore such a significant economic underclass, and do not improve their lot, then things have a habit of turning round and biting you on the bum!

That's the problem with large scale stats.

 

In the US, stats show less than 4% unemployment, and yet there are 96 million working age people considered as out of the workforce!

In a supposedly booming economy, American households have never been more indebted, and more than 40% of them couldn't face an unexpected 400 dollar expense!

 

Something similar is going on here, as well as almost everywhere else.

All the money flows to a few pockets (watch the shops at Siam Paragon!), while the rest of the population gets the crumbs and makes ends meet by taking on debt.

Credit is made easy, with low interest rates, so as to encourage people in buying things they don't need with money they don't have.

 

As for any rebellion, it seems very unlikely as long as people are fed enough.

Most rebellions stem from hunger, not anger.

On top of that, the media (MSM) are working hand in hand with the powers that be to present an idyllic picture of the situation, and most of those watching while eating pizza believe it because it is so much more comfortable than opening their eyes, and using their brains...

Finally, real education is dispensed to the few that can afford it, while the masses finish high school barely literate, unable to pass tests that their predecessors, decades ago, were given upon entering high school...

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, JAG said:

Your second paragraph ( cosmetic sales) rather illustrates the problem with the argument which has ranged over the last twenty odd pages. The OP is about what most Thais think. Only a very small proportion of Thais buy cosmetics from Elizabeth Arden, Nivea or L'Oréal. The vast majority buy from the" zillion of Thai/Chinese cosmetic companies that have sprung up." Similarly, few shop in Robinson's or Central, eat in McDonalds, or have significant amounts invested in the SET, either as individuals or as members of Pension Funds. To use all these as measures of how well the economy is doing, for most Thais, is missing the point.

 

Very very many scratch a living as peasant farmers, supplemented by wages (minimum) from day labouring jobs, often unsure whether they will have any cash next week. Those employed in factories and in construction are usually so miserably paid that they have no surplus cash. They may (do) have little money, little purchasing power and little industrial muscle to improve their lot, but you cannot claim that as they don't  pay taxes because they don't make enough money  they are "not even in the Thai economy per se."

They are just as much part of the economy as the monied are. They are the "most Thais" for whom the economy is not doing well. They are the ones which it is leaving behind. This has huge social and political implications which if not addressed will some day really hurt the economy, and by extension the relatively small number that you might classify as being" in the Thai economy per se."

 

Now some may dismiss that as socialist/communist anti capitalist claptrap. It is neither, I am neither. But I do realise, and I think history has shown that if you ignore such a significant economic underclass, and do not improve their lot, then things have a habit of turning round and biting you on the bum!

I'm not suggesting for one second that the plight of the impoverished and very poor is not important, I personally believe it's extremely important. But any discussion and analysis of economics is, by it's very nature, a cold hard look at facts, one of those facts is that trying to examine the behaviour and actions of the poorer people in society wont allow you a good understanding of the state of the economy - just because the rural poor are struggling in many areas doesn't mean the economy of Thailand is in bad shape hence what happens to cheap cosmetic company sales doesn't help our understanding of the economic situation.

 

If you were to broaden the subject from economics to include socio-economics a different discussion may prevail, my interest however is purely in economics, a subject which fascinates me because of its interlinking aspects. So it's not that I don't care about people, I do, very much, it's just that my focus is more clinical and tunnel-visioned as far as these debates are concerned.

[mogandave]

Your second paragraph ( cosmetic sales) rather illustrates the problem with the argument which has ranged over the last twenty odd pages. The OP is about what most Thais think. Only a very small proportion of Thais buy cosmetics from Elizabeth Arden, Nivea or L'Oréal. The vast majority buy from the" zillion of Thai/Chinese cosmetic companies that have sprung up." Similarly, few shop in Robinson's or Central, eat in McDonalds, or have significant amounts invested in the SET, either as individuals or as members of Pension Funds. To use all these as measures of how well the economy is doing, for most Thais, is missing the point.
 
Very very many scratch a living as peasant farmers, supplemented by wages (minimum) from day labouring jobs, often unsure whether they will have any cash next week. Those employed in factories and in construction are usually so miserably paid that they have no surplus cash. They may (do) have little money, little purchasing power and little industrial muscle to improve their lot, but you cannot claim that as they don't  pay taxes because they don't make enough money  they are "not even in the Thai economy per se."
They are just as much part of the economy as the monied are. They are the "most Thais" for whom the economy is not doing well. They are the ones which it is leaving behind. This has huge social and political implications which if not addressed will some day really hurt the economy, and by extension the relatively small number that you might classify as being" in the Thai economy per se."
 
Now some may dismiss that as socialist/communist anti capitalist claptrap. It is neither, I am neither. But I do realise, and I think history has shown that if you ignore such a significant economic underclass, and do not improve their lot, then things have a habit of turning round and biting you on the bum!

Yes, attack anyone that disagrees as uncaring. Just because people do not believe leftist programs really help the poor does not mean they don’t care.

It is interesting that you treat as fact an article that is based on a “survey”, even though none of the details of the survey were included in the article. Why is that?

[KiwiKiwi]

6 hours ago, Brunolem said:

But is the army really running this country?

 

I don't believe so. The army is doing exactly as it's told.