Thailand’s Titanic Struggle

[hammered]

A Mom Luang I know reckons March, 6 months on from the original coup, will be the time when "something big happens" concerning the govt. But he wont tell me specifics.

That's the talk of town. Problem though is the rumor is mostly based on speculation.

It is mostly based on the fact that this is the time the university holidays start, and many fear that because of that the demonstrations will attract large numbers. The Police were given already the order that in case demonstrations become large they will not be as leniently treated as they were last year.

Another factor is that the the infights over who is going to become next army commander in chief when Gen. Sonthi goes into mandatory retirement later this year will heat up.

Lets wait and see.

There is also usually a 6-monthly reshuffle in the civil service, police and military around this time.

[Martin]

"But it does not really say much more than: politically, Thailand is quite immature and nobody knows where the country is heading!"

I think you can substitute in that sentence, for 'Thailand', the name of any and every country/nation in the world.

They are but immature in different ways.

'Politics' being, at base, how a country decides its policies (i.e. what it wants to do, and how it wants to be) is merely different elsewhere. Not better, not worse, merely different.

It happened that, a couple of times in England, I strayed into the edges of politics.

First time, it was local government. Second time, it was parliamentary.

Thankfully, I was never enveighled far in.

But I went far enough in to get an inside view of how the procedures actually happened (rather than just how they were presented as happening).

I sense that it is no better here, nor worse; just a bit different, but with much the same.

[Martin]

"As for the civil war suggestions - maybe - but I don't really see that happening in a large way. This society is too patronistic - and the poor people are too subserviant and deferential to Phooyai - khap-poom. If anything I suspect it would be more like an insurgency by educated marxist types - and would be put down."

I think that you are right in your assessment, 'thaigene 2'.

Just staying well clear of Bangkok, in places where "there is rice in the fields and fish in the water", should be enough to ensure that one is merely a spectator.

[sriracha john]

I appreciate all the moderators' efforts to clean up the garbage from this thread. I see it was a busy time for them. Thank you.

Please remember forum rules that moderation issues are not to be discussed.However if you wish to assist in minimising "garbage" there is one rather obvious step you can take all by yourself.Thank you.

hmm.. it seems even a simple compliment can't get past the deletees comments...

but nevermind...

in an attempt to get this back on track:

Govt plans to clip former PM's wings

Thaksin political comeback 'unacceptable'

The Council for National Security and the Surayud Chulanont government plan to take some ''careful'' but firm steps to clip the wings of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra so that he does not go back on his word to step aside from politics. The former premier has continued to cause worries for the coup-makers and the interim government through his foreign media appearances and interviews, heaping criticism on the Surayud administration and the CNS.

Continued here:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/04Feb2007_news09.php

Edited February 4, 2007 by sriracha john

[tiger tanaka]

Some interesting bits here, and other articles too at Asia Sentinel

Leashing Thailand’s Cops

David Fullbrook

02 February 2007

With Thaksin Shinawatra gone, the generals in charge are going after his power base inside the national police.

continue here

www.asiasentinel.com

[papakapbaan]

"As for the civil war suggestions - maybe - but I don't really see that happening in a large way. This society is too patronistic - and the poor people are too subserviant and deferential to Phooyai - khap-poom. If anything I suspect it would be more like an insurgency by educated marxist types - and would be put down."

I think that you are right in your assessment, 'thaigene 2'.

Just staying well clear of Bangkok, in places where "there is rice in the fields and fish in the water", should be enough to ensure that one is merely a spectator.

Not really reassuring.

(I note you are writing from rural Udon Thani...)

Anyway: a civil war does not necessarily have to involve a lot of civilians.

Precisely because Thailand is a patronistic society with "subservent" poor, it's quite possible that military factions will be allowed to fight for power without anybody in the civil society standing up to say "enough of this mess"!

(BTW Completely unthinkable of in the West! That's where we have at least one major difference in political developments, no?!)

In other words...

Some middle class citizens in Bangkok were developed enough politically to stay stop to Thaksin's cronyism and conflicts of interests.

But there will apparently be no middle classes to stand up against the patronistic society of the old clique (military/bureaucracy).

When the military/bureaucracy and its patronistic interests will be back in full force: maybe not just fighting the new order of Thaksin, but possibly fighting amongst themselves too!

We will be without any guarantee that a civil society will say "we have had enough!"

I personally believe that there is only ONE major political "force" against a civil war (of military factions) in Thailand... (Have to stop writing here).

[dannyboy1234]

Thailand’s Titanic Struggle

The article by Thitnan Pongsudhirak is excellent, informative and on the money. In the U. S. some of the Top City managers are in prison now for corruption, in Conneticut where I live Three (3) Top and excellent produceing Mayors are all in Prison, as is our Governor who was just released, John Rowland, good former friend of George Bush, Insurance Executive, but a good governor who went bad with judgement. Thanksin has a brilliant background, in Marketing, Criminology, being a CEO, owning and selling large corporate assets. The timing of this coup was poor, the military seemed ill prepared to manage and operate the government. Now with the devaluation of the U. S. Dollar which continues to drop, Ford Motor Co, and others are getting scared. The military are just that Soldiers, with little or no business experience. You need clean, well educated Executives to manage Thailands affaris, and the country is full of them. Thailand has to learn also to focus on what Thaksin began with programs for the poor, and create a middle class.

The backbone of Thailand is the Farmers, and the poor need to be treated with dignity, and given more opportunities by the government, such as Affordable Housing, creations of Jobs, and protection by Uncorrupt police.

Thailand will come out from this okay, but it shall take leadership and time.

With all Thaksins faults, he "knew how to make money" for Thailand, as well as himself. When corruption is so prevalent on a huge scale it is more than a cancer to eradicate, but you can eradicate it useing honest military, and honest police and strong penalities for those who continue to be corrupt.

I am an American who plans to retire in the Land of Smiles, this coup has not dampened by spirts for this wonderful country, its people and its warm culture. The U. S. has much to learn from the Thai people, especially about caring for its elderly, and how family there is everyting. Here you get old and your kids avoid you, want to know what they will get when you die, and put you in a Nursing Home, or Wharehouse of death. Thai familes, relatives take care of their own, with or without money.

By Thitnan Pongsudhirak

Thaksin lost political power but not his potency to trigger another military coup

BANGKOK: -- After more than a year of prolonged political crisis and confrontation, capped by last September’s military coup, Thailand’s murky political environment appears headed towards even greater uncertainty and instability. The coup restored the “holy trinity” of the military, the bureaucracy and the monarchy to the apex of Thailand’s socio-political hierarchy, and put down, at least for the time being, the upstart new order represented by deposed Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his crew. However, the putsch did not put away Thaksin politically for the myriad corruption accusations and alleged abuses of power that hounded his five-year rule.

By New Year’s Eve, when multiple and coordinated bomb blasts convulsed central Bangkok, it became clear that what has transpired since September 19 is a coup gone wrong. Insinuating that remnants of Thaksin’s ousted regime were culpable for the lethal bomb attacks, the military junta, the self-styled Council for National Security, still looked inept because of its inability to maintain security in the capital.

Already reeling from a series of setbacks ranging from the failed liberalization of the underground lottery and slow progress in prosecuting the Shinawatra family’s shady land purchase and tax evasion to policy flip-flops on capital controls, the government of caretaker Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, an erstwhile privy councillor and former army commander-in-chief, consequently became more reliant on the CNS as security priorities surged to the forefront of its policy agenda against the backdrop of its apparent technocratic incompetence.

As both the CNS and the Surayud government have lost their way in the aftermath of the coup, what is likely to take place from here onwards is the continuation of a titanic struggle between the forces of the Establishment and those of Thaksin. At stake will be no less than Thailand’s very heart and soul. Three concurrent trends portend why and how this grand battle will run its course.

First, Thaksin still represents a potent and unrivalled political phenomenon previously unseen in Thailand. He commands deep pockets, thanks to a telecommunications and media empire built on state concessions and government connections. The sale of his family’s flagship company, Shin Corp, to Temasek Holdings early last year netted Thaksin a 73.3 billion baht (US $2 billion) windfall.

Moreover, Thaksin is a unique, consummate personality, who can count on a vast network of contacts, informants, sympathizers, and loyalists in many echelons of the police, the military, the bureaucracy, the private sector, not to mention the rural masses and urban poor who voted his Thai Rak Thai party into office in January 2001 with two successful re-elections in February 2005 and April 2006 (the latter result subsequently nullified).

Most important, Thaksin believes in the righteousness of his cause. Although his opponents have justifiably denounced him for corruption and abuses of power, Thaksin sees his pro-poor, populist platform as a clutch of innovative ideas to remake Thailand into a more egalitarian society, upending its neo-feudal underpinnings. The Thaksin phenomenon, his denials in media outlets such as CNN notwithstanding, is thus unstoppable because of the sheer force of Thaksin’s personality, belief and resources.

Second, the CNS generals have unwittingly facilitated Thaksin’s political longevity.

After failing to take Thaksin to task aggressively in the fortnight after the coup, the CNS set up a lackluster cabinet full of elderly and mostly retired hands from the bureaucracy, and followed up with the appointment of a national assembly with substantial military representation.

The ruling generals also failed to press their coup justifications of Thaksin’s corruption, constitutional usurpation, societal polarization, and disrespect of the king. Their post-coup management had been so dismal that the New Year’s Eve bomb blasts led to rumors of another coup to tighten the military’s grip and get rid of Thaksin’s agents provocateurs and other agitators for good. Indeed, if its security maintenance slips further and Thaksin continues to gain ground on the generals, a harsher, incumbency coup may be in the offing. It would be a coup staged in the same direction with similar objectives, but with a new leadership and tougher methods and means. Another coup in 2007 would almost certainly delay the already contentious and problematic constitution-drafting and election timetables, and could become a source of street protests, with enabling conditions for Thaksin to make his political comeback.

Finally, the September 19 coup was unlike previous putsches in contemporary Thailand for its critical timing. Its tumultuous aftermath is panning out as Thais enter the twilight of their monarch’s glorious 60-year-old reign in a 21st century kingdom characterized by unresolved polarization and an ongoing tussle for the country’s future after the royal succession. Thailand as it is known today has modernized from an Asian backwater to a middle-income nation with a gleaming metropolitan capital, weighed down by social and income disparities between the rich and middle classes on the one hand and the poor on the other, between Bangkok and the countryside.

Unless the Establishment makes greater efforts in bridging this yawning gap, Thaksin may well get another turn. Whichever side comes out on top in this grand struggle, Thailand as we know it is coming to an end. A new Thailand will emerge in an arduous and contested process during which its denizens and foreign friends from near and far should lend a helping hand as much as they can for as smooth a transition as possible.

-- The Irrawaddy 2007-02-03

[mitrapaap]

Brilliant!!

At last a real snapshot of what is REALLY going on in Thai politics.

Thaksin tried to help the poor and was crucified for his efforts.

If helping the poor would make one as rich as Taksin got by "helping the poor" the entire Thai high society would queue up to help the poor. But they don't...

[blaze]

Brilliant!!

At last a real snapshot of what is REALLY going on in Thai politics.

Thaksin tried to help the poor and was crucified for his efforts.

If helping the poor would make one as rich as Taksin got by "helping the poor" the entire Thai high society would queue up to help the poor. But they don't...

Are you saying he accumulated his wealth during the period he was ostensibly 'helping the poor'?

[z21rhd]

Brilliant!!

At last a real snapshot of what is REALLY going on in Thai politics.

Thaksin tried to help the poor and was crucified for his efforts.

If helping the poor would make one as rich as Taksin got by "helping the poor" the entire Thai high society would queue up to help the poor. But they don't...

Are you saying he accumulated his wealth during the period he was ostensibly 'helping the poor'?

Is it not generally accepted that he was a rich man from a rich family before he introduced populist policies wherein he provided (wasted) government millions to the peasantary

[blaze]

Brilliant!!

At last a real snapshot of what is REALLY going on in Thai politics.

Thaksin tried to help the poor and was crucified for his efforts.

If helping the poor would make one as rich as Taksin got by "helping the poor" the entire Thai high society would queue up to help the poor. But they don't...

Are you saying he accumulated his wealth during the period he was ostensibly 'helping the poor'?

Is it not generally accepted that he was a rich man from a rich family before he introduced populist policies wherein he provided (wasted) government millions to the peasantary

I think it is generally accepted that he was a fairly rich man from a fairly rich family before he became a very rich man with a very rich family. And THEN provided (or wasted, depending on your bias) government millions to the peasantry.

[Francis Maube]

Whichever side comes out on top in this grand struggle, Thailand as we know it is coming to an end. A new Thailand will emerge in an arduous and contested process during which its denizens and foreign friends from near and far should lend a helping hand as much as they can for as smooth a transition as possible.

Thailand Changing? In order for the country to change the people have to change first. If there is one thing human being hate, it is changes. No one want to step into the unknown and this apply to every corner of the earth. The problem is probably more accute in LOS because the social safety net is always present. No one starve in LOS, one can always drop by relative and friends to get shelter for one night or for one year. Government will come and go, politicians will get richer before falling out of favor, civil servants will continue to view public service as a means to supplement their income, some hard working and smart students will climb into the middle class and in some distant future might think for themselves, the occasional military backed government will either make a mess out of it or improve things ( Anand did) and the farmers,as usual, will be kept in the dark and used to buy votes.

Is the Western model the alternative? Judging by the number of westerners who decided to leave the western way of life, probably not. Could Thailand come up with its own recipe improving its people life? The optimistics might say, maybe, the pessimistics will say not in this lifetime.

Well, relax, sit back and enjoy the show, one thing for sure is, we foreigners , will not be allowed and should not attempt to steer the changes in any direction whatsoever. I'll have another cold can in the meanwhile.

[DrDweeb]

Most politicions in Thailand are simply crooks. They are in politics only to protect their business interests.

Hah! That should read "most politicians the world over are crooks". Just because we're better at hiding the corruption in the west doesn't mean it's not there.

I can point to our ex-pres Bill Clinton as a shining example. The man grew up middle class, worked for the government his entire life, yet somehow (wink wink, nudge nudge, say no more) managed to become a multi-millionaire. And when his mother said live on CNN she wouldn't vote for him because he was a pathological liar, CNN never repeated the story and no other press would touch it. So much for a free press looking out for the interests of the people.

Remember the old Chinese saying: Power attracts the corruptible.

In the vast majority of cases, changing governments simply changes who's pockets the money goes into.

Actually, I think you will find the WhitwaterWorld and Kenn Starr business bankrupted the Clintons, and he was probably the poorest President ever when he left office. He has earned considerable money since his leaving office.

Dweeb

[DrDweeb]

I was in Thailand as a young GI in the early 70's (Udorn) and fell in love with the place. When I retired in 2003 I moved to bangkok/Pattaya. I lasted about 15 months. The noise, pollution and complete character change of the locals was a total turnoff. Also the young "Monks" have made a mockery of Buddhism.

The food and beaches are still great. But that's about it. Its a great place to visit. You can have it for long term residency. Its also great if you are a middle aged, over weight alcoholic pedaphile looser with no friends. Regards.

Well, you need to go travel throughout the country for a while. And FYI - the paedophilia capital of the world is not Thailand, most of the farangs in Thailand are probably well under 50 and in my experience have plenty of friends. I have met only Thai alcaholics - you can read the alcohol statistics for Thailand yourself.

So, go live in Vietnam - you probably left your mind there.

Dweeb

[Scott]

Thailand, like most countries, especially ones with some type of democratic institutions, is a work in progress. Right now it doesn't appear to be on the right track, but like a lot of other countries, it will get there eventually.

These things are like a pendulum--they move back and forth. The country has managed to make it this long and will continue in the future.

As the old saying goes "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst."

[Martin]

I nodded in agreement with post #102, by 'Francis Maube', on forecasts such as:

"the occasional military backed government will either make a mess out of it or improve things ( Anand did)"

but the next forecast :

"and the farmers, as usual, will be kept in the dark and used to buy votes"

may not come about.

My scenario is:

1. Americans come to the end of spending money that they haven't got on things that they don't need, and the knock-on effect is a world-wide recession,

2. For Thailand, with jobs disappearing due to the loss of overseas customers, the Social Security system described by 'Francis Maube' kicks in, and there is a massive return to the villages of those of the villages' most progressive daughters and sons who have, over the past two generations, been drawn away to urbania,

3. The villages get 'middle-class leadership' thereby and the Graduate Peasantry become a force to be reckoned with, ("Enrolments for Peasantry 101 at Window 1, please"),

4. Bangkok power groups have to compromise with rural power groups, and this is done by hammering out a few more constitutions that are tried and found wanting (but get progressively more democratic) between periods of 'military' government.

5. Finally, a constitution lasts, with periodic amending, and periods of 'military' government do not recur.

The timescale of that scenario would be a long one---probably two generations, at least---but it could be within the lifetime of some who are already born today.

I put commas round 'military' because I don't see that it means the same here as in the West. There taking up a military career means taking a conscious decision to forgo a political one. Thailand's 'military' seem to start with a view to being a lot more involved with civilianity, and politically active. (The 'Greening Isaan' programme, for instance.)

I look at my greatgrandchildren and think: "You will live in interesting times".

[astral]

An unfortunate title.................

I seem to remember that the Titanic sank...................

[llopatka]

So what will result of all this turmoil? I used to strongly question my decision to ditch medical school in Canada to pursue family land business on Samui, and to study economics at Chulalongkorn instead.

I will say, I was an illegal 19/20-year old teacher in Thailand for well over a year -- without a work permit OR a fake degree -- until my citizenship situation got sorted out several months ago. (Although I was born on Samui, I didn't get citizenship because I wasn't "Thai enough;" at my time of birth, you could only hold citizenship if your father was Thai -- the workings of a previous, just-as-stupid, and mysogenist neo-national junta). I used to work in all of those low-paying junk jobs at bilingual and wish-they-were-International schools, and can say, for one, that yes, Thailand needs to revamp their education system. Paedophilles, racists, and plumbers that can't spell plumber surely have nothing to invest in my country excepting a couple bahts every Friday for an all-you-can-Chang at the Cathouse and a hooker.

However, the changes that will take place will most certainly not be in the form of pay-rises tempting an influx of young, energetic, and qualified Western teachers. Instead, keeping sufficiency in mind, the non-elite Thai schools will simply hire Filipinos: they have degrees, there's lots of them, and they'll work for peanuts. Unfortunately, in my dealings with Thai students in Thai (I speak read and write -- apparently it makes me less desirable as a candidate), I can conclude that most of them cannot understand what it is that those Filipinos are saying. Perhaps being able to speak, read, and write in grammatically, situationally appropriate, comprehensible English should be the new requirement, maybe even with a TEFL attached. That would seem reasonable, given the 20-50K pay.

Given that I now have citizenship (and out of those schools), I'm homefree. However, there's also the issue of land-retention rights and the future of foreign investment in Thailand, which is a major concern to the family: we deal in land-development. But as it looks, foreign investment, no matter what the outcome, is here to stay. Why all the panic? Certainly, a country with three mainstays -- coconut trees, tourists and dimebag gogo-girls, can't afford to cut their own throats.

So, no matter how stupid the people responsible for the New Year's bombings, be assured that they know Thailand can't afford to clean up its image up that much. The struggle is over who owns the wallet, not who fills it: both sides like to keep their pockets lined, and the profits reeled in on Samui, Phuket and elsewhere are too large to be risked at whole. Thailand's been through this on average every 10 years -- it's the same old dirt road, walked on by lots of flip-flops. Constitution ammendments will only change whose rich hands are in power. Poor people will still be poor, rich people will still most certainly be rich, farangs will still be farangs, and whores will be whores. To all the illegal teachers: "Good luck next time." To investors: nothing's new, and keeping it Thai, "Jai-yen yen..."

Cheers,

Cathouse, 4 o'clock, Friday...

Lucas

Edited February 5, 2007 by llopatka

[Old Man River]

The authorities need to get rid of the dead wood, corrupt officials ie: police, military, MP's, judges ...

The problem is, often, these are the authorities.

[johnwills]

I have no idea about Thai Politics so this maybe a stupid question, if TRT put forward Taksin as the candidate for the next election, would this be allowed and if so, if he won would the current powers that be let him take power again?

[Old Man River]

I have no idea about Thai Politics so this maybe a stupid question, if TRT put forward Taksin as the candidate for the next election, would this be allowed and if so, if he won would the current powers that be let him take power again?

Not a stupid question, but it is a moot point. They won't allow him back in the country unless it is to answer charges before they put him jail. Also, there is a good chance the TRT will be disbanded. Hence, the question will never come up.

[sriracha john]

I have no idea about Thai Politics so this maybe a stupid question, if TRT put forward Taksin as the candidate for the next election, would this be allowed and if so, if he won would the current powers that be let him take power again?

Not a stupid question, but it is a moot point. They won't allow him back in the country unless it is to answer charges before they put him jail. Also, there is a good chance the TRT will be disbanded. Hence, the question will never come up.

I agree it's a moot point, but for a different reason in that if TRT (IF they somehow manage to avoid their dissolution) did attempt to put forth Thaksin as their candidate, he would graciously decline as he has repeatedly said on an infinite number of occasions that he is finished with politics and would not run. It's especially moot considering that he is man of such high honor and integrity that he would never lie on such important matters.

[Ozziepaul]

Love this place, my wife, the kids, the culture, the food, the people, the sites etc.

But more and more, with things seen and heard I am personally and sadly coming to the following conclusion.

TIT = This is Toy land.

I will keep my hands clasped in prayer that clarity and a greater sense of security returns. Sooner than later.

[johnnyk]

... Thailand's been through this on average every 10 years -- it's the same old dirt road, walked on by lots of flip-flops....

Brilliant!!!

The point about who owns the wallet is spot on! One reason why its proving 'difficult' to pin stuff on Mr. Tee is that many of the current 'reform' actors will have had fingers in at least some of the pies.