'Limited time' for daring rescue mission to free Thailand's trapped boys

[Eligius]

As many posters here will know, I am the first person to criticise Thai officialdom; but I truly believe that the main people involved in this rescue effort have all (I'm not talking about Prayut and his ilk, with their crass advocacy of the cave as a 'tourist attraction') been sincerely and genuinely doing their very best in an almost impossible situation. What decision to take on the rescue of these boys has been incredibly, soul-searingly difficult. I certainly would not want to criticise these brave volunteers and advisers for all they have been doing. 

 

What happens now is partly down to the weather - the skill of the rescue party (which is immense) - the resilience of the brave young boys (who are absolute heroes, in my book) - and ultimately lies in the hands of the gods. We all (I know) are rooting for the youngsters and the rescuers with every fibre of our being. I hope the youngsters know that they have the love and support of the whole world carrying them through all of this horrible nightmare.

 

Edited July 7, 2018 by Eligius

[InfinityandBeyond]

2 minutes ago, Eligius said:

As many posters here will know, I am the first person to criticise Thai officialdom; but I truly believe that the main people involved in this rescue effort have all (I'm not talking about Prayut and his ilk, with their crass advocacy of the cave as a 'tourist attraction') been sincerely and genuinely doing their very best in an almost impossible situation. What decision to take on the rescue of these boys has been incredibly, soul-searingly difficult. I certainly would not want to criticise these brave volunteers and advisers for all they have been doing. 

 

What happens now is partly down to the weather - the skill of the rescue party (which is immense) - the resilience of the brave young boys (who are absolute heroes, in my book) - and ultimately lies in the hands of the gods. We all (I know) are rooting for the youngsters and the rescuers with every fibre of our being. 

Well said. From the beginning of this debacle, I noticed that those with the least to give have given the most--street vendors from local communities cooking food for rescue crews, and lest we forget the ex-SEAL who sacrificed his life only a few days ago.

That being said, it seems like the former governor of Chiang Rai (now transferred to Phayao)  and defacto incident commander has decided to hang in there (whether by choice or by force, I don't know).

I find it strange that while the eyes of the world are on Thailand during this epic international rescue attempt, Government House is silent. They have managed to push through in recent days a 20-year rule in the legislative assembly, but not one word on this crisis up north. The snakes are hedging their bets on this crisis--if lives are lost they will shift blame. If lives are saved they will take credit.

If there was anytime to bring "reconciliation" and "happiness" and "unite" the people, this was the junta's rare opportunity in the last 4 years.

They missed out on a big chance to gain some political capital in the upcoming elections in the year of "whenever."

Summary: entitled, greedy, self-serving puppets and bureaucrats that care nothing about the nation or its people that do their masters' bidding.

The junta speaks of "Thai Niyom" while the honourable Thais of all walks of life and the handful of foreigners lending their expertise in this crisis live it: Honour. Strength. Compassion. Humility. Sacrifice.

The kids and rescuers have shown these characteristics throughout their ordeal.

Hope to see all the kids in the loving arms of their parents soon.

 

 

[Eligius]

9 minutes ago, InfinityandBeyond said:

Well said. From the beginning of this debacle, I noticed that those with the least to give have given the most--street vendors from local communities cooking food for rescue crews, and lest we forget the ex-SEAL who sacrificed his life only a few days ago.

That being said, it seems like the former governor of Chiang Rai (now transferred to Phayao)  and defacto incident commander has decided to hang in there (whether by choice or by force, I don't know).

I find it strange that while the eyes of the world are on Thailand during this epic international rescue attempt, Government House is silent. They have managed to push through in recent days a 20-year rule in the legislative assembly, but not one word on this crisis up north. The snakes are hedging their bets on this crisis--if lives are lost they will shift blame. If lives are saved they will take credit.

If there was anytime to bring "reconciliation" and "happiness" and "unite" the people, this was the junta's rare opportunity in the last 4 years.

They missed out on a big chance to gain some political capital in the upcoming elections in the year of "whenever."

Summary: entitled, greedy, self-serving puppets and bureaucrats that care nothing about the nation or its people that do their masters' bidding.

The junta speaks of "Thai Niyom" while the honourable Thais of all walks of life and the handful of foreigners lending their expertise in this crisis live it: Honour. Strength. Compassion. Humility. Sacrifice.

The kids and rescuers have shown these characteristics throughout their ordeal.

Hope to see all the kids in the loving arms of their parents soon.

 

 

What a brilliant post, InfinityandBeyond! You've said it all: the ordinary Thais are often tremendously helpful and caring - whereas those who 'rule' over them are scarcely human. I mean, what sort of a person (a 'leader') would actually publicly start talking, at a time like this, about 'let's turn this cave into a tourist attraction'? If that is not sick, I don't know what is.

 

As you say, these brave kids, trapped in that cave, and all the decent, sincere Thais (and foreigners too) desperately trying to help them - can and do teach this bunch of power-thieves what it means to be honourable, caring, self-sacrificing, decent human beings. Yes, they LIVE their humanity - not just talk empty words, and do NOTHING.

 

     

Edited July 7, 2018 by Eligius

[JAZZDOG]

4 hours ago, Jack100 said:

Seems drilling a hole seems the safest option to me . To drill a  reasonable width hole , say 20" would

require a big size  water well type drilling  rig .? Is it  possible to drag  such a rig up over their location?

Anyone have any ideas  on this ?

Elon Musk will be meeting with officials here tomorrow is my understanding. He tweeted that he has been working on a couple ideas, one is a design for an enclosed pod to bring the kids out. The other is a company that copyrighted a drill that uses infrared in front of the bit to super heat the rock before the bit bores through. He thinks he can drill the hole in 1/5 the time it normally takes. He also has the tech to locate the direction to drill from within the cave. I don't even pretend to understand this sh*t but the guys a genus like sent back from the George Jetson era. 

[JAZZDOG]

2 hours ago, InfinityandBeyond said:

If true, that is good news. 

My assessment is this: waiting until Dec or Jan is a death sentence for the team (and possibly a number of rescuers). 

Striking while the iron is hot (when all available resources are at hand, the kids are in good spirits, and the weather is cooperating) may not see everyone egress from the cave alive, but even one survivor is better than none. 

That being said, the reality is that families should prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. 

In all due respect one death is not an option until all options that will bring ALL the kids home have been exhausted. One survivor is better than none expectations are for fools. Only on TVF could I expect to hear anything so insane.

Nobody ever said Dec or Jan. One hundred days plus or minus max, Google up an almanac. Elon Musk is working with experts here on an escape pod design to extract the kids plus a high-tech drill designed to cut drilling time by 80%. The official who signs off on this is going to own it to the grave. Political suicide is too kind of a way to describe it. If this goes down as I predict it will be the saddest day since the Tsunami. When they start pulling out those body bags they better have some iron clad geological proof that flooding in that cave typically reaches the ceiling at Pattaya Beach because that is the only justification there could be for this reckless kneejerk extraction. There also needs to be an investigation into exactly why an unlimited shipment of pumps with maximum ability to move water were not drop shipped on day 2. Not rocket science that we needed much more capacity from the jump and needed to add to that capacity continually until that hole was dry. The lack of proactive logic is inexcusable. If this insanity takes place, which I doubt, I will be hoping for the best while preparing for the worst. Pura Vida

[JAZZDOG]

4 hours ago, Ulic said:

What is the probability the whole cave floods out during the rainy season? The first minor monsoon rain of the season was described as turning the cave water flow into a Colorado river like rapid that was impossible to move through. Unless they are certain that there is an area in the cave that remains dry and it will have breathable air they should probably attempt to swim out before the next rain.

A geologist can certainly determine mean and max high water marks. Only excuse for this bull rush extraction of kids totally unprepared would be if it was shown water typically reaches the ceiling of Pattaya Beach or whatever other location seems best for a long term site. The maximum stay of 100 days. Most likely much less if plans for a semi-horizontal boring pans out. The fact that this cave just ended the life of a veteran navy seal should be more than enough reason for anyone with two brain cells to rub together to conclude dragging out a freaking kid who cant swim is a fools game with a likely 50/50 chance of success. Likely less after todays downpours. Hoping whoever in charge will deep six this insane idea. Real life isn't like the movies.

[Ron19]

Flame post removed.

[jerry921]

8 hours ago, Jack100 said:

Seems drilling a hole seems the safest option to me . To drill a  reasonable width hole , say 20" would

require a big size  water well type drilling  rig .? Is it  possible to drag  such a rig up over their location?

Anyone have any ideas  on this ?

This is the equipment that drilled the 28" hole needed to rescue the Chilean miners. It's 130,000 lbs, too big to lift by helicopter so it would have to drive in on a road made to the drilling location.

 

In an earlier post on another thread I incorrectly said it was too big to be airlifted to Thailand by anything but a Russian plane, but I was accidentally comparing the 130,000 lbs to another table that listed airlift capacities in kg. The rig is under 60,000 kg, so it could be airlifted by, e.g. a C-5 or C-17.  Airlift capacities.

 

A small hole, like 4 or 5.5 inches, could be drilled from a rig mounted on the back of a pickup, which could be helicoptered in, if they knew where to drill, which they don't.

 

In my view, the contribution Musk's team can best make is their advanced underground sonar location equipment, which might help with identifying where to drill.

 

If they are truly 700 m underground, the idea that they can wander around the rough terrain until they find a natural chimney that will be of any use seems fantastically unrealistic. OTOH, it doesn't get in the way.

[Nigeone]

11 minutes ago, jerry921 said:

This is the equipment that drilled the 28" hole needed to rescue the Chilean miners. It's 130,000 lbs, too big to lift by helicopter so it would have to drive in on a road made to the drilling location.

 

In an earlier post on another thread I incorrectly said it was too big to be airlifted to Thailand by anything but a Russian plane, but I was accidentally comparing the 130,000 lbs to another table that listed airlift capacities in kg. The rig is under 60,000 kg, so it could be airlifted by, e.g. a C-5 or C-17.  Airlift capacities.

 

A small hole, like 4 or 5.5 inches, could be drilled from a rig mounted on the back of a pickup, which could be helicoptered in, if they knew where to drill, which they don't.

 

In my view, the contribution Musk's team can best make is their advanced underground sonar location equipment, which might help with identifying where to drill.

 

If they are truly 700 m underground, the idea that they can wander around the rough terrain until they find a natural chimney that will be of any use seems fantastically unrealistic. OTOH, it doesn't get in the way.

Not as easy as you make out as the cave is situated near the base of a big slope or even mountain which is pretty much covered by dense trees and undergrowth . You would need to identify the area then clear the forestation etc ,level the ground ,all needing big machinery , then bring in the drilling gear and hope they can drill down and it's in the right place while it's bucketing down rain

Edited July 7, 2018 by Nigeone

[jerry921]

47 minutes ago, Nigeone said:

Not as easy as you make out as the cave is situated near the base of a big slope or even mountain which is pretty much covered by dense trees and undergrowth . You would need to identify the area then clear the forestation etc ,level the ground ,all needing big machinery , then bring in the drilling gear and hope they can drill down and it's in the right place while it's bucketing down rain

I wasn't trying to make out it is easy, but if they can identify the area, I think it's doable to clear a small area with chain saws and lower in a small rig by helicopter. It doesn't need a concrete pad or perfectly level ground. The big rig, I agree, is not easy. You'd need to use heavy equipment to clear a road in.

 

But it's my opinion that once they found them they should have been working on this all along, in parallel to plan's A and B.

[RC8]

2 hours ago, JAZZDOG said:

A geologist can certainly determine mean and max high water marks. Only excuse for this bull rush extraction of kids totally unprepared would be if it was shown water typically reaches the ceiling of Pattaya Beach or whatever other location seems best for a long term site. The maximum stay of 100 days. Most likely much less if plans for a semi-horizontal boring pans out. The fact that this cave just ended the life of a veteran navy seal should be more than enough reason for anyone with two brain cells to rub together to conclude dragging out a freaking kid who cant swim is a fools game with a likely 50/50 chance of success. Likely less after todays downpours. Hoping whoever in charge will deep six this insane idea. Real life isn't like the movies.

Yes....real life dosn't wait for holes to be calculated and drilled while O2 falls and CO2 rises.  NOBODY wants to bring them out by diving but given a choice of that or death by CO2 poisoning they will have to take the chance. 

 

Could of, should of, would of..... too late.

 

A fools game it may be ..... but I fear its the only game in town given the deteriorating atmosphere underground. 

 

 

[lamyai3]

4 hours ago, JAZZDOG said:

A geologist can certainly determine mean and max high water marks. Only excuse for this bull rush extraction of kids totally unprepared would be if it was shown water typically reaches the ceiling of Pattaya Beach or whatever other location seems best for a long term site. 

If this was clearly established, why has it not been mentioned yet in the very detailed news reportage? Until right before the kids were found everyone was dead certain they were on Pattaya Beach, but on arrival they found contrary to expectation that area was flooded and the party had had to venture several hundred metres further into the cave. Comments have been made that there are places inside that never flood and have plenty of air, why then are they reporting oxygen is down to 15%?

 

Much more likely is that the territory inside there is very poorly charted. It's not known if there's an exit route for instance, and little is really known about the variation of conditions inside in the event of extreme rain, or the effect on oxygen levels if several people are in there breathing for a prolonged period. I doubt anyone in the course of human history has set up on Pattaya Beach in the rainy season to measure these things. 

[Nyezhov]

Guessing, analyzing and criticizing from the safety of mommys basement is wonderful, but the best rescue folks in the world from the US and GB are on the ground and they aren't talking. But he'll I'd trust them before I trusted Musk

[midzo]

19 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

Letter from Nik: “I love you father & mother and Toy. If we can get out, please can you take me to eat at a pan fried pork restaurant? I love you.”

 

แม่-พ่อ นิครักพ่อกับแม่เน้อ กับน้องโตย ถ้าออกไปได้ พ่อ-แม่พาไปกินหมูกระทะหน่อย นิครักพ่อ-แม่-แม่ #ThamLuang #ถ้ำหลวง #Thailand

I was confused by "pan-fried pork restaurant." Nik wants to eat "หมูกระทะ," better known to most of us as Moo Kata. 

 

Probably what I would want after weeks in a cave, too. 

 

Wishing the best for these guys. May they soon return safely to their families.

[NCC1701A]

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1015757631070195714

 

(7:35am) WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR: All media have been told to leave #ThamLuang. In addition, anyone not directly related to the rescue attempt must leave. Reasons unknown. There will be a press conference at the local administration office in Pong Pha #ThamLuang #ถ้ำหลวง #Thailand

[NCC1701A]

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1015759347651973120

 

7:28am Deputy Governor leading the parents and relations of the missing 13 to a meeting at #ThamLuang #13ชีวิตรอดแล้ว #ถ้ำหลวง #Thailand Photo @Thairath_TV

[NCC1701A]

https://twitter.com/RichardBarrow/status/1015760692253634560

 

7:43am All media have until 9am to leave the Tham Luang cave complex area. Photo of officials and rescue workers arriving at the cave

[NCC1701A]

https://twitter.com/jamesmassola/status/1015762842753085440

 

And the Australian @AusFedPolice diving team has just arrived on site at #thamluang cave RT @jamesmassola: Looks like some of the American team has arrived pic.twitter.com/Ynxf9mPlv6

[NCC1701A]

https://twitter.com/Beaking_News/status/1015763635451228162

 

WATCH: Everyone - apart from rescuers, medics & security forces - now being cleared from main site next to the entrance of #ThamLuang cave in Chiang Rai. No reason given but governor said last night it was a “perfect time” to embark on a rescue attempt. #ถ้ำหลวง #13ชีวิตติดถ้ำ

[Eligius]

4 minutes ago, NCC1701A said:

https://twitter.com/Beaking_News/status/1015763635451228162

 

WATCH: Everyone - apart from rescuers, medics & security forces - now being cleared from main site next to the entrance of #ThamLuang cave in Chiang Rai. No reason given but governor said last night it was a “perfect time” to embark on a rescue attempt. #ถ้ำหลวง #13ชีวิตติดถ้ำ

I know what the Governor means - but I think his expression the 'perfect time' is a little ill-judged - considering that they have decided (it seems) to move precisely when the rains start bucketing down (when for days before that it was dry).

 

I'm not criticising, however - as all decisions in this case are fraught with difficulty, danger and uncertainty.

[africasiaeuro]

Here we are three weeks later. Thai 'experts' still figuring what's best to do.

 

Experts from everywhere, all circles of life, all kinds of backgrounds, with or without clues are calling different versions of how to to get these poor guys out from their watery cave.

 

With the huge logistic complex the super powers have at their disposal, none came forward to offer the equipment that could have solved the problem in a few days.

 

They have pumps which can drain 15 Olympic size pools in an hour. By now such eqquipment could be in place and move every drop of water out, never mind the location.

 

All could have been set up within days.

Platforms, power supply, flexible suction tubes a la Elon Musk style Kevlar reinforced.

 

But no, we are still doing guesswork, hearing this, or that.

 

Now, limestone drilling may be easy.

Question is : Are they drilling 1 mile down shafts and are they correctly positioned, or are we then saying another thing?

 

When considering all the factors, pumping out the sludge and water would have been the best, though not the cheapest way.

 

To move a 5000 HP centrifugal pump to a hillside in Chiangrai requires planning, and experts no doubt. All these are not available in the country.

 

The military operation where a country like Iraq was levelled to ashes wasn't cheaper, but brought more revenue.

 

This is where the problem lies.

 

Anyone who has been involved in logistics operations in Thailand understands the indecisiveness that is seen locally everywhere.

 

Without a clue of what is to be done at the precise moment.

 

This disaster has proven this phenomena again.

 

Drilling 500 holes: what it really means is: someone has made a contract with a drilling firm and collects huge kickbacks on the back of the taxpayer. It also means they have no clue where to drill, hence 500 drilling positions.

 

I guess, in the end it's going to be Elon Musks 'rescue tubes' that will succeed.

 

He is the kind of visionary and has the right instincts to make it work.

 

The only question will again logistics and time.

 

But if Elon puts his hands - and brains behind it - at least there is substantial hope these guys get finally out of their misery.

 

africasiaeuro

[SEAsia Traveler]

^shut up muppet

 

the rescue operation has begun

[tingtongtourist]

1 hour ago, NCC1701A said:

https://twitter.com/Beaking_News/status/1015763635451228162

 

WATCH: Everyone - apart from rescuers, medics & security forces - now being cleared from main site next to the entrance of #ThamLuang cave in Chiang Rai. No reason given but governor said last night it was a “perfect time” to embark on a rescue attempt. #ถ้ำหลวง #13ชีวิตติดถ้ำ

i am a minority that does not have twitter, so i appreciate that you post these updates, thanks

 

about "perfect time".. he says this in English?

 

If big storms coming maybe they assess a higher risk level in the cave

so its the best or only option left right now.

 

lets hope they get them out and none of the tunnels is pounded while they doing it.

 

[smutcakes]

2 minutes ago, tingtongtourist said:

i am a minority that does not have twitter, so i appreciate that you post these updates, thanks

 

about "perfect time".. he says this in English?

 

If big storms coming maybe they assess a higher risk level in the cave

so its the best or only option left right now.

 

lets hope they get them out and none of the tunnels is pounded while they doing it.

 

I agree this is the case. The risk of leaving in there with heavy rain imminent has been judged higher than try to get them out. 

 

 

[Jonathan Fairfield]

BREAKING: Rescue mission to free 'Tham Luang 13' has started: 

 

https://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/1047052-rescuers-begin-evacuation-of-tham-luang-13/