UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[transam]

This topic............

 

 

[mommysboy]

My idea-it is Sunday and I'm looking outside the box:

 

A Final vote on the deal, advisory only. The two options definitely not available: remain, or no deal.  

 

A. The Government's deal.

B.  Single market option.

 

Thereafter the decision is entirely down to the Government, and there should be no Parliamentary vote.  

 

 

 

 

 

If there is to be a Parliamentary vote it should be secret ballot, and a free vote.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[tebee]

43 minutes ago, melvinmelvin said:

There is a pot (piece of text) re Brexit in today's Bangkok Post.

 

It may appear that the chief DUP chick is aiming for a hard Brexit.

 

Last year's snap election in order to bolster Tory, cabinet and PM-ego was probably not a good investment.

 

There is No solution for NI that the DUP will accept that is also acceptable to the EU. Therefore either May dumps the DUP (or Brexit ) or we get a hard no deal brexit with no transition.

 

 

Of course that inevitably leads to Irish reunification, but the DUP doesn't think that far ahead....

[Orac]

My idea-it is Sunday and I'm looking outside the box:
 
A Final vote on the deal, advisory only. The two options definitely not available: remain, or no deal.  
 
A. The Government's deal.
B.  Single market option.
 
Thereafter the decision is entirely down to the Government, and there should be no Parliamentary vote.  
 
 
 
 
 
If there is to be a Parliamentary vote it should be secret ballot, and a free vote.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Firstly there would need to be a parliamentary vote to authorise this to start with which would be a tough job. Secondly, should the govt be unable to reach a deal the default would be single market which many would object to - ‘will of the people’ and all that - accompanied by the cries of all the EU needs to do is stonewall any deal and force SM retention. Also not sure on the legal position of a secret ballot in parliament.


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[Orac]

Duplicate

[My Thai Life]

3 hours ago, sandyf said:

Feel free to make up your own 'facts'.

Your theory is that an exporter needs to have an office in every country that they are exporting to (or regulatory region in the case of the EU).

 

This is complete and utter nonsense.

 

My "facts" come from a major Master's strand in International Trade, Tariffs and Finance plus a lifetime of international experience.

[melvinmelvin]

23 minutes ago, tebee said:

There is No solution for NI that the DUP will accept that is also acceptable to the EU. Therefore either May dumps the DUP (or Brexit ) or we get a hard no deal brexit with no transition.

 

 

Of course that inevitably leads to Irish reunification, but the DUP doesn't think that far ahead....

yes, I gather that much

 

drop DUP, let EU have the kind of border controls they prefer, focus on other matters

 

the EU's wish for border control is totally reasonable

the DUP view is totally unreasonable

 

if Catholics and Protestants in NI feel the need to bomb and shoot each other because of

border measurements between EU and none EU - let them.

after all, the Irish have several hundred years experience in killing and murdering

 

 

[My Thai Life]

51 minutes ago, tebee said:

There is No solution for NI that the DUP will accept that is also acceptable to the EU.

You seem to be forgetting that we don't actually need the EU's approval on the UK-Irish border.

[My Thai Life]

1 hour ago, tebee said:

Therefore either May dumps the DUP (or Brexit ) or we get a hard no deal brexit with no transition.

Actually the option you refer to (no deal) is quite possibly the most likely one at present. And it may be the best in the long term. Do you read the economists who say it is? Or do you only read stuff that reflects your prejudices (the aptly-titled "echo chamber")?

 

The referendum was a simple in-out vote. The UK voted out.

 

As I've said many times, I'm neutral in this discussion. But trying to overthrow a democratic vote will create far more long-lasting damage than a hard exit; and trying to overthrow the referendum result is fundamentally undemocratic, no matter how people try to justify it.

 

Of all the remain posters, you seem to be (in general) the most polite and civilised and informed, but also the most worried. Given your business situation I can understand this. Things always change in business, as you know I'm sure.

Edited October 14, 2018 by My Thai Life

[aright]

6 hours ago, Grouse said:

I missed that. Kindly repost the most relevant links

THE European Union is the most protectionist trade bloc in the world and tops the "hypocrisy list" for blocking exports from poor and developing countries, according a report released by Oxfam International yesterday.

While the EU imposes fewer tariffs on Third Word products than the US, it uses a variety of other stealth barriers to protect its own industry.

Brussels specialises in "spurious" anti-dumping inquiries, taking advantage of a clause in the World Trade Organisation rules that allows states to impose fines or extra duties on products for up to five years if there is a suspicion of anti-competitive practice.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2759451/EU-is-most-protectionist-trade-bloc-in-the-world.html

[Orac]

THE European Union is the most protectionist trade bloc in the world and tops the "hypocrisy list" for blocking exports from poor and developing countries, according a report released by Oxfam International yesterday.

While the EU imposes fewer tariffs on Third Word products than the US, it uses a variety of other stealth barriers to protect its own industry.

Brussels specialises in "spurious" anti-dumping inquiries, taking advantage of a clause in the World Trade Organisation rules that allows states to impose fines or extra duties on products for up to five years if there is a suspicion of anti-competitive practice.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2759451/EU-is-most-protectionist-trade-bloc-in-the-world.html

As I mentioned earlier - an article from 2002 that does not take into account significant changes in trade between EU and developing nations in recent years.


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[mommysboy]

27 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Actually the option you refer to (no deal) is quite possibly the most likely one at present. And it may be the best in the long term. Do you read the economists who say it is? Or do you only read stuff that reflects your prejudices (the aptly-titled "echo chamber")?

 

The referendum was a simple in-out vote. The UK voted out.

 

As I've said many times, I'm neutral in this discussion. But trying to overthrow a democratic vote will create far more long-lasting damage than a hard exit; and trying to overthrow the referendum result is fundamentally undemocratic, no matter how people try to justify it.

 

Of all the remain posters, you seem to be (in general) the most polite and civilised and informed, but also the most worried. Given your business situation I can understand this. Things always change in business, as you know I'm sure.

'Actually the option you refer to (no deal) is quite possibly the most likely one at present.'

 

Just as it should be clearly understood that Remain is not an option, it should be agreed that 'no deal' is also off the table, in fact it has never been on.

 

In my opinion, the options at hand are the Government Plan and the Free Trade Deal (Norway).  Both have 'silent majority appeal'. The Government should now be left to choose which is preferred by the electorate.

 

I think it is no exaggeration to say it would be a grave error to ignore the will of the people.  The sensible strategy would be a Final Say on those 2 options, but those options only. 

Edited October 14, 2018 by mommysboy

[aright]

9 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

 

As I mentioned earlier - an article from 2002 that does not take into account significant changes in trade between EU and developing nations in recent years.


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Tell us about the changes then!

 

Mapped: Protectionism is on the rise as US and EU implement thousands of restrictive trade measures 

 

It would seem the main offenders for creating harmful trade policies are the US and EU, according to an analysis by law firm Gowling WLG

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/28/mapped-protectionism-rise-us-eu-implement-thousands-restrictive/

Edited October 14, 2018 by aright

[My Thai Life]

11 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

Just as it should be clearly understood that Remain is not an option, it should be agreed that 'no deal' is also off the table, in fact it has never been on.

Well now you're getting into the realm of speculation rather than fact. And your speculation may, or may not, be correct.

 

If there is no deal, or if a deal is voted down resulting in a no deal, we are in a no deal situation. There is no precedent for this. You may have one opinion about how that plays out. Other people may have other opinions. None of us, including May or Corbyn, has a crystal ball onto the outcome; that's why it's so fascinating to a neutral observer like myself.

Edited October 14, 2018 by My Thai Life

[Orac]

Tell us about the changes then!

You don’t need to look back far - I have pointed out several over the last few hours.

Key ones are the EBA initiative and EPAs that have developed from them along with the zeroing of subsidies on ag products to developing nations in 2009 and total removal in 2014.


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[Orac]

Tell us about the changes then!

 

Mapped: Protectionism is on the rise as US and EU implement thousands of restrictive trade measures 

 

It would seem the main offenders for creating harmful trade policies are the US and EU, according to an analysis by law firm Gowling WLG

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/11/28/mapped-protectionism-rise-us-eu-implement-thousands-restrictive/

 

 

This article makes no specific mention of developing nations and also identifies US as “by far the most protective” suggesting this is far more about trade between major players, which makes up the bulk of intl trade.

 

 

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[My Thai Life]

 

8 minutes ago, Orac said:

This article makes no specific mention of developing nations

Really?

 

"While 15 of the 20 countries to have passed the highest number of trade-restricting policies since the financial crisis are advanced economies, many others have also imposed harmful measures.

India, Russia and Argentina have all imposed hundreds of harmful trade policies across the research"period.

[Orac]

 

Really?

 

"While 15 of the 20 countries to have passed the highest number of trade-restricting policies since the financial crisis are advanced economies, many others have also imposed harmful measures.

India, Russia and Argentina have all imposed hundreds of harmful trade policies across the research"period.

But we were not talking about developing nations imposing trade restricting policies but the EU imposing them on developing nations.


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[My Thai Life]

9 minutes ago, Orac said:

But we were not talking about developing nations imposing trade restricting policies but the EU imposing them on developing nations.

The tariffs imposed by the EU on nations, developing or otherwise,  have been referred to numerous times on this forum. And on the linked article, which you appear not to have read.

Edited October 14, 2018 by My Thai Life

[aright]

17 minutes ago, Orac said:

 

 

This article makes no specific mention of developing nations and also identifies US as “by far the most protective” suggesting this is far more about trade between major players, which makes up the bulk of intl trade.

 

 

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You are misinterpreting the article but try this one

 

The EU common agriculture policy enables, if not compels, EU farmers to dump their excess but cheap farm produce on African markets, thus forcing African farmers to sell their products at a loss or leave the market altogether. And, while pushing for ever more foreign aid to Africa, the EU also imposes stiff tariffs on African agricultural imports, thus making it impossible for Africa to trade itself out of poverty. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/28/the-european-union-is-an-ongoing-disaster-for-africa

[My Thai Life]

27 minutes ago, Orac said:

Key ones are the EBA initiative and EPAs that have developed from them along with the zeroing of subsidies on ag products to developing nations in 2009 and total removal in 2014.

Eh? Please try English.

 

Who is applying which subsidies to whom, where and when?

[BwindiBoy]

15 hours ago, kwilco said:

Sorry if you find this scary ... but really, be afraid....be very afraid, it really is going to happen

Please tell me why I, personally, should be afraid.

[whatsupdoc]

21 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Well now you're getting into the realm of speculation rather than fact. And your speculation may, or may not, be correct.

 

If there is no deal, or if a deal is voted down resulting in a no deal, we are in a no deal situation. There is no precedent for this. You may have one opinion about how that plays out. Other people may have other opinions. None of us, including May or Corbyn, has a crystal ball onto the outcome; that's why it's so fascinating to a neutral observer like myself.

Like you (quote: "the EU is a bullying protectionist cartel" see post #4691), I myself am also an utterly impartial and completely neutral observer (but one who actually thinks the Brexit vote was about the most stupid thing the UK has ever done).????

 

But we do agree on one thing: no deal is indeed going to be fascinating. 

[sandyf]

1 hour ago, My Thai Life said:

Your theory is that an exporter needs to have an office in every country that they are exporting to (or regulatory region in the case of the EU).

I have said no such thing and it is against the forum rules to deliberately take comments out of context. This is what I said

"Post brexit, as a third country companies exporting to the EU where the product requires CE marking will be required to have representation within the EU. Either there own office or an agent,"

 

Since when does "Representation within the EU" mean an office in every country, gross distortion.

If you bothered to read the regulations on CE marking you would see what I said is perfectly correct.

[My Thai Life]

4 minutes ago, whatsupdoc said:

Like you (quote: "the EU is a bullying protectionist cartel" see post #4691), I myself am also an utterly impartial and completely neutral observer (but one who actually thinks the Brexit vote was about the most stupid thing the UK has ever done)

So evidently you are not, by your own description, impartial.

 

An international troll may be a better description.

Edited October 14, 2018 by My Thai Life

[Orac]

10 minutes ago, aright said:

You are misinterpreting the article but try this one

 

The EU common agriculture policy enables, if not compels, EU farmers to dump their excess but cheap farm produce on African markets, thus forcing African farmers to sell their products at a loss or leave the market altogether. And, while pushing for ever more foreign aid to Africa, the EU also imposes stiff tariffs on African agricultural imports, thus making it impossible for Africa to trade itself out of poverty. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/28/the-european-union-is-an-ongoing-disaster-for-africa

 

 

It is a letter in the Guardian which seems to be rather out of touch. As I have already pointed out earlier with links, the EU no longer imposes stiff tariffs on African agricultural imports  so the letter writer is wrong in his assertion. 

 

Here are are the current preference agreements in place.

 

 

[mommysboy]

41 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Well now you're getting into the realm of speculation rather than fact. And your speculation may, or may not, be correct.

 

If there is no deal, or if a deal is voted down resulting in a no deal, we are in a no deal situation. There is no precedent for this. You may have one opinion about how that plays out. Other people may have other opinions. None of us, including May or Corbyn, has a crystal ball onto the outcome; that's why it's so fascinating to a neutral observer like myself.

 

Speculation!  Well we do know for certain there was vote to leave.  And a sanity check tells us that no deal simply isn't wanted by the electorate.

 

Many surmise that a no deal Brexit is possible, some even want it.  In fact, it represents no Brexit, a certain defeat on the Brexit Bill, and a no confidence vote for the Government.  There would be a GE.  What happens after that is anyone's guess.

Edited October 14, 2018 by mommysboy

[Orac]

7 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

Eh? Please try English.

 

Who is applying which subsidies to whom, where and when?

 

 

Erm nobody - that is what zero and total removal mean.

 

We did discuss this earlier in case it has slipped your memory.

[BwindiBoy]

 

4 minutes ago, sandyf said:

I have said no such thing and it is against the forum rules to deliberately take comments out of context. This is what I said

"Post brexit, as a third country companies exporting to the EU where the product requires CE marking will be required to have representation within the EU. Either there own office or an agent,"

 

Since when does "Representation within the EU" mean an office in every country, gross distortion.

If you bothered to read the regulations on CE marking you would see what I said is perfectly correct.

If your original post didn't contain so many grammatical errors, maybe MTL would have had a sporting chance of understanding what you were trying to say.

[My Thai Life]

2 minutes ago, sandyf said:

"Post brexit, as a third country companies exporting to the EU where the product requires CE marking will be required to have representation within the EU. Either there own office or an agent,"

Exporters do not require an office in the target country. This is one of the basic principles of international trade.

 

If you agree with this then we agree. But your previous posts do not agree with this, despite your selective quoting.