UK voters should make final Brexit decision if talks with EU collapse: poll

[tebee]

44 minutes ago, mommysboy said:

 

It's basic marketing really- you find out what floats someone's boat then channel news/fake news at them in order to elicit the required outcome. 

 

How can a foreign power influence this?  By putting up the money via a front man in the UK.

There is a book been written about it https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35944685-alternative-war

 

[Grouse]

7 hours ago, vinny41 said:

and if anyone checks the YouGov website no such poll exists so no one can check

https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/

It's not being done through YouGov. For rather obvious reasons.

[Grouse]

7 hours ago, rixalex said:

Kwilco states as a matter of fact that workers will have less rights if the UK is out of the EU.

 

You can speculate on what the Tories would do, but you really don't know. They have stated that they intend to maintain them. Maybe they are lying. Maybe they aren't. There's only one way to find out.

 

At the end of the day, outside of the EU, it will be up to the country what the workers' rights are. I'm ok with that as i really do think we are capable of deciding this stuff for ourselves.

Then you are being astonishingly naive.

 

Our "government" tries to opt out, work around or ignore much of what the EU tries to do. The EU is fundamentally social democrat. Can you really not see what's going to happen? The CONs are almost shouting it in your face and you still don't get it.

[vinny41]

7 minutes ago, Grouse said:

It's not being done through YouGov. For rather obvious reasons.

Strange that the article mentions YouGov then

YouGov’s technique proved far more accurate than conventional polling in successfully predicting a hung parliament last year, it pointed out.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-final-say-referendum-labour-leave-eu-jess-phillips-a8615011.html

Same Article from the Guardian states

The campaign commissioned a YouGov study based on polling of 26,000 people in the hope of persuading Labour MPs to vote for a second referendum if May’s Brexit deal is rejected and the party cannot force a general election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/02/majority-in-all-labour-seats-back-second-referendum-study-says

 

Any Group that not willing to publish their Polls can only be regarded as Fake News

 

"

[vinny41]

5 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Then you are being astonishingly naive.

 

Our "government" tries to opt out, work around or ignore much of what the EU tries to do. The EU is fundamentally social democrat. Can you really not see what's going to happen? The CONs are almost shouting it in your face and you still don't get it.

I see it was Tony Blair Goverment that requested and was responsible for the creation of Article 50 in The Lisbon Treaty

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/revealed-former-labour-mp-inadvertently-laid-groundwork-brexit/

Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty was included at the wishes of the British Government, was written by Lord Kerr and enacted into the treaty on December 1 2009.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1039971/Brexit-news-EU-UK-Ireland-border-backstop-Article-50-mistakes-Franklin-Dehousse

So I guess your are correct the Labour government wanted to have an opt-out clause for leaving the EU

 

 

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, dick dasterdly said:

But surely someone has to read those "masses of tweets facebook-entries"??

 

They can't just enter someones fb page to enter a post (?) - so someone would have to actually access their fb/tweet account and read them?

 

News/articles/radio/tv programmes - most support remain!

 

Pamphlets/rallies?  Really?  Evidence please.

You ever use YouTube? How is it that it always suggests things for you to look at that actually is a decent list? You think I get the same list? Who develops the list offered to you? Nobody. A machine did it, on its own.

 

Evrrytime I search for "teen lesbian", the top response is Brexit the Movie ????

 

[this is NOT nonsense, things are actually running this way - it's why social media is free and the companies are hugely wealthy].

 

Some people need to wake up and think for themselves 

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

Mr post was not about Farage, as it said. it looks like you have been TV'ing too hard! I recommend an entertaining sojourn, like the one I enjoyed yesterday.

How much is a good sojourn these days?

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

Dick, both my Bachelor's and Master's had a substantial element of this kind of analysis. And I've spent a large chunk of my life managing projects in this field, but for corporates, not political parties, though the principles and methods are exactly the same.

 

The basic idea is very simple and grew out of the kind of marketing analysis that we all know about – eg, what type of product does this group of customers buy, or if a customer buys product A what other product is s/he likely to buy. In business it’s called “targeted marketing”.

 

Specifically, The Cambridge Analytica type analysis was based on a couple of core techniques:

 

(1)    Facebook users were “segmented” = put into groups – based on information that FB users entered about themselves for example gender, age and education.

(2)    The responses of these groups to specific ad campaigns or postings were measured by the “likes” they gave or received.

(3)    Based on the results of the analysis in 1&2, messages (ie Facebook posts and ad campaigns) were fine-tuned to influence targeted groups of users to vote in a specific direction.

 

None of this analysis is illegal, though some of the data that was fed into it had been collected in ways that were borderline legal – see Note 1 below.

 

The foreign influence is exercised by:

 

(1)    Troll farms acting on forums, newsgroups, comment sections in the press etc.

(2)    Bots – automated ro"bot" trolls - acting  on forums, newsgroups, comment sections in the press etc.

(3)    Fake news, which can go viral via the troll farms and bots.

(4)    Secretive funding for legitimate ad campaigns (which use the messages defined by the results of the analysis above).

(6)    Hacking email accounts and servers (as in the US election).

 

Note 1. One of the interesting discoveries that came out of the post-mortem for all of this was the extent to which Facebook was collecting data in ways that no-one was previously aware of, for example names, addresses (including postcodes - useful for electoral correlation) and phone numbers of user contacts in their mobile phones.

Yes. However, the use of neural network simulations is resulting in new and unexpected correlations. This is particularly true of multilayer (so called "deep") neural networks. This is different from traditional data mining. Off topic for this thread but well worth researching. Facebook maintains large, and increasing, ly large, records on each user, each with large numbers of independently accessable fields. A kind of relational data base. I will leave it to your imagination but the huge database links are cause for concern. Don't you think FB "knows" that you have a Tesco loyalty card ????. Man, they know your NI number, passport number, car Reg, you went to Tenerife, You support Man U, that you eat curry, you bought condoms last Saturday, you're low on Bristol Cream and you voted Brexit. AND, by passing that through the neural network, they know you are good target for a high end mountain bike because the neural network has seen it dozens of other records (except The Bristol Cream)!

 

No more naivety please ????????

[Grouse]

2 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

The reading is done by computer, specifically the "likes", which are correlated to specific messages and campaigns (which are also indexed in the computer). The campaign messages are increasingly fine-tuned over successive cycles, based on their success as measured by the number of "likes".

 

Now, given that we have been told many times that Leave voters are old, and not the core user base for Facebook, one really must question the extent to which these FB campaigns influenced the referendum outcome.

 

As you've mentioned before, the Remain campaign used tax-payers' money. This is wholely unacceptable in my opinion.

 

By the way, you can safely ignore Grouse's comments on this topic. He seems to be trying to blind you with science, or maybe he's just confused himself. You don't need neural networks for this kind of analysis at all.

Please feel free to ignore me. Please!

 

We were using neural networks two or three decades ago for financial, military, and security applications. Do you know what a list X company is?

 

The "new" technology is multi layer neural networks, not just back propagation.

 

These allow the extraction of patterns from huge amounts of data. Let's take "non disclosed passenger groupings". How about we identify four people on a flight who have all eaten at a particular restaurant in Paris over the last six months but are on the same flight but in different parts of the aircraft. I'll say no more on that

 

Do you know why you were refused a motgage? No, neither does the bank manager. A machine has decided based on undisclosed and non defined patterns 

 

Or how about intelligent torpedoes being able to distinguish between real cavitation noise and a decoy?

 

Traditional data mining is, er, passé 

 

ENOUGH!

 

All you need to know is that this is real. Nothing to be frightened of but certainly cautious. YOU are being manipulated, as is everyone.

 

Finally, in high finance do you think "quants" with PhDs in maths are there because they can do sums? Ask CAL Futures.

 

It is complex and not a suitable topic for here. I tried to give you a helicopter overview but....

 

Right, GandT please.

[Grouse]

56 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

I see it was Tony Blair Goverment that requested and was responsible for the creation of Article 50 in The Lisbon Treaty

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/02/revealed-former-labour-mp-inadvertently-laid-groundwork-brexit/

Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty was included at the wishes of the British Government, was written by Lord Kerr and enacted into the treaty on December 1 2009.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1039971/Brexit-news-EU-UK-Ireland-border-backstop-Article-50-mistakes-Franklin-Dehousse

So I guess your are correct the Labour government wanted to have an opt-out clause for leaving the EU

 

 

What's your point? Colossus is overloaded at the min.

[Patriot1066]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Yes, a bit like that for your loyalty card.

 

Same technology decides if you get a credit card

 

Or what movie you may like

 

Actually, rather scary stuff as there is no human intervention

 

We developed a system for Experian to replace credit scoring and another for Barclaycard to help identify fraud. (And some security stuff)

I remember when a man in a dark suit who drove a Rover car decided on my credit getting abilities, he was my bank manager, but my new one just puts stuff in his computer like I can do at home, and he always tries to sell me credit I don’t need. No wonder people get in a mess. Things have changed so much! Not all for the better.

 

That’s quiet interesting about fraud. My masters is in security but I don’t get involved in the computer side much more on the tools so to speak.

 

I don’t have a loyalty card or Facebook and try to use mostly cash, but now lots of places in London don’t take it at all even for a sandwich! I ordered some bacon rolls and bits for a morning meeting at a place called Vital. When I gave the girl on the till two £20 notes she looked at me like I had violently murdered both her parents. 

 

I blame the EU (only joking)

[Patriot1066]

1 minute ago, Grouse said:

What's your point? Colossus is overloaded at the min.

Actually I think Labour ultimately caused the Brexit vote due to them constantly topping us up with ‘New British’. Obviously thinking each one was an extra vote. But the Shires hold them back (At the moment).

[Grouse]

4 minutes ago, Patriot1066 said:

I remember when a man in a dark suit who drove a Rover car decided on my credit getting abilities, he was my bank manager, but my new one just puts stuff in his computer like I can do at home, and he always tries to sell me credit I don’t need. No wonder people get in a mess. Things have changed so much! Not all for the better.

 

That’s quiet interesting about fraud. My masters is in security but I don’t get involved in the computer side much more on the tools so to speak.

 

I don’t have a loyalty card or Facebook and try to use mostly cash, but now lots of places in London don’t take it at all even for a sandwich! I ordered some bacon rolls and bits for a morning meeting at a place called Vital. When I gave the girl on the till two £20 notes she looked at me like I had violently murdered both her parents. 

 

I blame the EU (only joking)

Not a bad strategy actually

[Grouse]

2 minutes ago, Patriot1066 said:

Actually I think Labour ultimately caused the Brexit vote due to them constantly topping us up with ‘New British’. Obviously thinking each one was an extra vote. But the Shires hold them back (At the moment).

I agree with you. Cynical bastards opened the flood gates assuming a majority would support Labour 

[Patriot1066]

10 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Please feel free to ignore me. Please!

 

We were using neural networks two or three decades ago for financial, military, and security applications. Do you know what a list X company is?

 

The "new" technology is multi layer neural networks, not just back propagation.

 

These allow the extraction of patterns from huge amounts of data. Let's take "non disclosed passenger groupings". How about we identify four people on a flight who have all eaten at a particular restaurant in Paris over the last six months but are on the same flight but in different parts of the aircraft. I'll say no more on that

 

Do you know why you were refused a motgage? No, neither does the bank manager. A machine has decided based on undisclosed and non defined patterns 

 

Or how about intelligent torpedoes being able to distinguish between real cavitation noise and a decoy?

 

Traditional data mining is, er, passé 

 

ENOUGH!

 

All you need to know is that this is real. Nothing to be frightened of but certainly cautious. YOU are being manipulated, as is everyone.

 

Finally, in high finance do you think "quants" with PhDs in maths are there because they can do sums? Ask CAL Futures.

 

It is complex and not a suitable topic for here. I tried to give you a helicopter overview but....

 

Right, GandT please.

Actually Grouse is quit clever for a remainer, and bit correct.

 

If your told something often enough you will believe it. ‘EU is good’ ‘Brexit is bad’ constantly goes around the remainers brains like a loop of zombie  Deadism where the leavers brain is not in a closed loop and can work out ‘EU bad’ Brexit good’ as that annoying meet at on the telly says Simplze.

[Patriot1066]

2 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Not a bad strategy actually

So our computer guys tell me!

 

But I am never sure if the humour me as old?

????

[Grouse]

5 minutes ago, Patriot1066 said:

So our computer guys tell me!

 

But I am never sure if the humour me as old?

????

No, I'm being serious! You're making some great moves. Never use FB to log on to another site. Never use a loyalty card. ????

[Patriot1066]

Just now, Grouse said:

No, I'm being serious! You're making some great moves. Never use FB to log on to another site. Never use a loyalty card. ????

Yea I know that’s best, but they do humour me sometimes.

 

Where’s my tin foil hat!

[rixalex]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Then you are being astonishingly naive.

 

Our "government" tries to opt out, work around or ignore much of what the EU tries to do. The EU is fundamentally social democrat. Can you really not see what's going to happen? The CONs are almost shouting it in your face and you still don't get it.

As i say, outside of the EU it will be within our power, as a country, to create whatever workers' rights we want to. If the Tories are as bent on taking them all away and exploiting the working classes, as you believe, i trust as a country that we will vote for a party that doesn't.

 

After all, you keep confidently declaring how the majority of people in Britain now, like you, favour staying in the EU. Well, all of your like-minded EU lover friends will surely not stand for those EU workers' rights being eroded away, and will make their voices heard at the next general election.

[Patriot1066]

6 minutes ago, rixalex said:

As i say, outside of the EU it will be within our power, as a country, to create whatever workers' rights we want to. If the Tories are as bent on taking them all away and exploiting the working classes, as you believe, i trust as a country that we will vote for a party that doesn't.

 

After all, you keep confidently declaring how the majority of people in Britain now, like you, favour staying in the EU. Well, all of your like-minded EU lover friends will surely not stand for those EU workers' rights being eroded away, and will make their voices heard at the next general election.

Hehe stop making salient points it won’t change their mindless zombie like remainers minds????

[vinny41]

41 minutes ago, Grouse said:

What's your point? Colossus is overloaded at the min.

useful information for anyone that didn't know 

[Patriot1066]

3 minutes ago, vinny41 said:

useful information for anyone that didn't know 

Interesting retort?

[vinny41]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Yes. However, the use of neural network simulations is resulting in new and unexpected correlations. This is particularly true of multilayer (so called "deep") neural networks. This is different from traditional data mining. Off topic for this thread but well worth researching. Facebook maintains large, and increasing, ly large, records on each user, each with large numbers of independently accessable fields. A kind of relational data base. I will leave it to your imagination but the huge database links are cause for concern. Don't you think FB "knows" that you have a Tesco loyalty card ????. Man, they know your NI number, passport number, car Reg, you went to Tenerife, You support Man U, that you eat curry, you bought condoms last Saturday, you're low on Bristol Cream and you voted Brexit. AND, by passing that through the neural network, they know you are good target for a high end mountain bike because the neural network has seen it dozens of other records (except The Bristol Cream)!

 

No more naivety please ????????

Interesting Post so are you saying if the data that was mined and sold off to whoever was willing to pay for it, the new data owners  could use that data in  a way that whenever they ran a poll they could predict the outcome  before they launched the poll and that the results would always be  postive results ( so long as the poll results were hidden and not made available)  in favour of the poll sponsor

Seems  like the recent peoplevote poll

[nauseus]

2 hours ago, Grouse said:

How much is a good sojourn these days?

About 3 pound a week.

[Grouse]

1 hour ago, rixalex said:

As i say, outside of the EU it will be within our power, as a country, to create whatever workers' rights we want to. If the Tories are as bent on taking them all away and exploiting the working classes, as you believe, i trust as a country that we will vote for a party that doesn't.

 

After all, you keep confidently declaring how the majority of people in Britain now, like you, favour staying in the EU. Well, all of your like-minded EU lover friends will surely not stand for those EU workers' rights being eroded away, and will make their voices heard at the next general election.

Who should I vote for? Who do YOU recommend?

[rixalex]

51 minutes ago, Grouse said:

Who should I vote for? Who do YOU recommend?

Get in the much-travelled remainer time machine, travel in to the future, pick up copies of all the political party's manifestos at the time of the next general election, return to the present, copy and paste said manifestos here..... then ask me again.

 

[mommysboy]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Who should I vote for? Who do YOU recommend?

We have two parties with a realistic prospect of government: so to oppose the party in power is to choose the other.

 

But anyone who opposes this Government but who is not a natural Labour supporter has a dilemma; although a big hit with millions of supporters, Corbyn does not appeal to the mid ground.

[Grouse]

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eu_referendum_2016_/2673628-Piglet-and-Pooh-the-slightly-more-sympathetic-version

[SheungWan]

3 hours ago, Patriot1066 said:

I don’t have a loyalty card or Facebook and try to use mostly cash, but now lots of places in London don’t take it at all even for a sandwich! I ordered some bacon rolls and bits for a morning meeting at a place called Vital. When I gave the girl on the till two £20 notes she looked at me like I had violently murdered both her parents.

Making things up again I see doesn't seem to bother some Brexiteers.

Edited November 3, 2018 by SheungWan

[SheungWan]

1 hour ago, Grouse said:

Who should I vote for? Who do YOU recommend?

The only call right now worth considering would be in terms of a Parliamentary vote in the event of Theresa May bringing an agreement to the House of Commons to vote on.