An inflammatory post and responses to it have been removed.

 

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6 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

There have been some interesting posts on CAP since I was last here.

 

The EEC/EU was from its origins shaped by the interests of French farmers and German industrialists: French farmers could charge excessive prices and receive mouthwatering subsidies, and Germany had a captive market for industrial goods.

 

This system of agricultural protectionism survives to this day, exemplified in import duties of 69 percent on beef and 26 percent for pork. Because of the CAP, European agricultural prices are, on average, around 20 percent above world market levels. This affects all EU consumers, but especially the poorest people who have to spend a large share of their income on food. There is a lot more to the CAP debate than gross or net beneficiaries.

 

This system of industrial distribution has provided Germany with the biggest trade surplus in history. This would be ok if Germany was using the Deutschmark: national currency fluctuations play a very important part in balancing international trade. But as part of the Eurozone this consigns countries like Greece to perpetual economic servitude. Currency union without political union can only end in tears.

 

Neither of these two points is simple. And well beyond the scope of the mudslinging that tends to dominate forums. And I think this is another problem with the EU (and politics in general): it’s become so complicated. The average Joe or Joanna just doesn’t have the time for it.

“This system of industrial distribution has provided Germany with the biggest trade surplus in history”

 

Nothing to do with Germany maintaining its industry and producing high quality, high value goods that the rest of the world wants to buy then?!

On 9/15/2018 at 9:47 AM, welovesundaysatspace said:

Oh wait, I forgot the bargaining power that exists in the phantasy world of the Brexiteers. The same world in which a Deal would be super easy and give the U.K. all the benefits plus more without any obligations and a 350mm per week for the NHS on top. Keep living in la-la land. 

 

 

Another classic mistake....... La La Land (or your “ph”antasy world) is where people live who think that Brexit is not going to happen/there is going to be a second referendum...... grow up, and stop wasting valuable reading time with your repetitive, anti-Brexit/anti-British diatribe. 

An honest question regardless of politics - do you think the UK will reach a deal or crash out with nothing?

1 hour ago, oilinki said:

 

 

I tried fish n chips once. 

 

 

 

 

The fact that it was only once says everything about you....

 

 

......you have zero credibility ??

12 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

“This system of industrial distribution has provided Germany with the biggest trade surplus in history”

 

Nothing to do with Germany maintaining its industry and producing high quality, high value goods that the rest of the world wants to buy then?!

Only In part also driven by a grossly undervalued single currency.  

1 hour ago, vogie said:

We made the choice 18 months ago, we voted to leave, have you forgot already. But should everything go belly up we will always know our American friends tried to warn us.

 

I am no great fan of May”s Chequers Brexit deal. However, I voted to leave the EU.

 

NO MORE, NO LESS.

 

In a democracy the government of the day are mandated by the electorate and I have to my trust in that government to arrange the finer details of the exit.

 

If they fork it up they will be accountable to the electorate. In this case there will be no U-turn and re-entry into the EU , so the Tories may well be returned.

 

I also recognize that whilst ‘no deal’ would be quite fun, it would not be in the UK’s best (short-term) interests. If that means May’s “My deal, or no deal” then I will go with her deal. Imperfect as it is, it is at least a start in the post-EU world.

11 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

The fact that it was only once says everything about you....

 

 

......you have zero credibility ??

The fact that he survived speaks well of him.

9 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

The fact that it was only once says everything about you....

 

......you have zero credibility ??

Think again. There might be other ways to view it. And don't worry. Italians laugh at my country's specialities as well. ?

13 minutes ago, baboon said:

An honest question regardless of politics - do you think the UK will reach a deal or crash out with nothing?

 

Toss a coin. Best 2 from 3 wins or 3 from 5 or 4 from 7.

 

TBH I think that it is a game of Call my Bluff but in the last 3 months both sides will cobble up and agreement that not many people will like, just to save face.

19 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

 

Another classic mistake....... La La Land (or your “ph”antasy world) is where people live who think that Brexit is not going to happen/there is going to be a second referendum...... grow up, and stop wasting valuable reading time with your repetitive, anti-Brexit/anti-British diatribe. 

I still don't see how Brexit is going to happen - we still have no idea what we want - How are we supposed to negotiate this very important deal?

 

 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, billd766 said:

 

Toss a coin. Best 2 from 3 wins or 3 from 5 or 4 from 7.

 

TBH I think that it is a game of Call my Bluff but in the last 3 months both sides will cobble up and agreement that not many people will like, just to save face.

 

I think Barnier has sent enough signals in the last couple of weeks.

 

I also firmly believe that “no deal” is not in the best interests of the EU member countries.

2 minutes ago, tebee said:

I still don't see how Brexit is going to happen - we still have no idea what we want - How are we supposed to negotiate this very important deal?

And it was so easy going in wasn't it ?

 

We don't have to negotiate the deal before exit day, we have to conclude a framework agreement. The detail is for later. Unless of course we "crash out", but I don't think the various parties involved will let that happen, still a possibility though.

3 minutes ago, Jip99 said:

 

I think Barnier has sent enough signals in the last couple of weeks.

 

I also firmly believe that “no deal” is not in the best interests of the EU member countries.

 

But Barnier can be over ruled.

 

I have no idea what would be the best deal for the UK as there is no firm commitment on either side yet. That is what the 650 MPs are paid to sort out knowing that if they get it wrong. they can be on the dole after the next election.

7 hours ago, My Thai Life said:

There have been some interesting posts on CAP since I was last here.

 

The EEC/EU was from its origins shaped by the interests of French farmers and German industrialists: French farmers could charge excessive prices and receive mouthwatering subsidies, and Germany had a captive market for industrial goods.

 

This system of agricultural protectionism survives to this day, exemplified in import duties of 69 percent on beef and 26 percent for pork. Because of the CAP, European agricultural prices are, on average, around 20 percent above world market levels. This affects all EU consumers, but especially the poorest people who have to spend a large share of their income on food. There is a lot more to the CAP debate than gross or net beneficiaries.

 

This system of industrial distribution has provided Germany with the biggest trade surplus in history. This would be ok if Germany was using the Deutschmark: national currency fluctuations play a very important part in balancing international trade. But as part of the Eurozone this consigns countries like Greece to perpetual economic servitude. Currency union without political union can only end in tears.

 

Neither of these two points is simple. And well beyond the scope of the mudslinging that tends to dominate forums. And I think this is another problem with the EU (and politics in general): it’s become so complicated. The average Joe or Joanna just doesn’t have the time for it.

How exactly did the EU promote German dominance in manufacturing? It's true that the financial crisis did end up giving Germany a big boost because of the artificially low level of the Euro in relation to the German economy. Do you think Germany planned that? It's also true that Britain did massively decline as a manufacturing power, But that was not only in relation to Germany but to pretty much all of the developed nations of the EU. 

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Throwing the decision on the final deal or no deal back to the electorate is a win win for the government.

 

Whatever the majority decide, they the electorate take the blame.

 

The only people let down will be the minority.

 

 

 

I think he may be referring to you.....

 

 

 

Throwing the decision on the final deal or no deal back to the electorate is a win win for the government.
 
Whatever the majority decide, they the electorate take the blame.
 
The only people let down will be the minority.
 
 

Quite wrong. It would be lose lose for the government to call another vote.

It guarantees the EU offering a terrible deal, and so if British public still vote leave in spite of that terrible deal, the government would find it ten times harder to make a success of Brexit. They'd get voted out for failing to make Brexit work.

And in the more likely event of the British public being forced to say no thanks to that terrible deal, and voting to stay in the EU, the government would take the blame for having promised to respect and honour the 2016 vote, and not having done so, they'd take the blame for the EU having offered the terrible deal, because they were the ones who decided to have a second vote, and Britain would return to the EU as an embarrassing laughing stock. Leavers would hate them for the betrayal. Remainers gratitude to them for having given in to their demands for another vote would be short-lived, and they'd hate them for having kicked off they EU debate in the first place, and for being responsible for us returning to the EU on less favourable terms. They'd get voted out.

Proceeding with Brexit is by far the safest option for the government. Least dangerous perhaps that should be.

If Brexit proves the disaster you are certain it will be, the government has the excuse that they were fulfilling their pledge to the electorate and that they respected the vote. If on the other hand, Brexit is a success, they'll be able to revel in having stuck to their guns in spite of all the advice to the contrary, and having prevailed, as you would believe, against all the odds.

Not that I'm certain this government WILL take the least dangerous option. They are a shambles and so nothing would surprise me at this point.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

17 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

And it was so easy going in wasn't it ?

 

We don't have to negotiate the deal before exit day, we have to conclude a framework agreement. The detail is for later. Unless of course we "crash out", but I don't think the various parties involved will let that happen, still a possibility though.

Yes but I don't even see us being anywhere near a working agreement for that framework - indeed we seem to have gone backward from what was agreed in December. 

 

But leaving without an idea of what the future holds - the so called blind Brexit option - surely leaves the the UK at a terrible disadvantage in the negotiations? We have to have something in place at the end of the 21 months transition period,  otherwise we just crash out then instead. We'll have to accept whatever crumbs the EU decides to throw our way. 

16 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

How exactly did the EU promote German dominance in manufacturing?

You're missing the main point, which is about the distortion within the Eurozone due to the German surplus and the fact that currency union without political union is not tenable in the long term, we've seen the cracks already, and they'll get worse.

 

The pseudo-quote that you ascribe to me is not mine.

 

 

Six months ahead of when UK is due to leave EU...

 

...we are facing a Brexit no sensible person acting in public interest would want, even if they are in favour of Brexit in principle...

 

...but we are going to do it anyway...

 

...future generations will think we are out of our minds.

 

This is no way to do Brexit.

6 minutes ago, tebee said:

Six months ahead of when UK is due to leave EU...

 

...we are facing a Brexit no sensible person acting in public interest would want, even if they are in favour of Brexit in principle...

 

...but we are going to do it anyway...

 

...future generations will think we are out of our minds.

 

This is no way to do Brexit.

In the Remainers' eyes there will never be a right time to Brexit. We will never be ready in their eyes.

 

It's a bit like the well paid couples who keep putting off having a child because they 'can't afford it'...

 

We have to do it now, or it won't happen at all. This is our one and only chance to escape.

2 minutes ago, tebee said:

Yes but I don't even see us being anywhere near a working agreement for that framework - indeed we seem to have gone backward from what was agreed in December. 

 

But leaving without an idea of what the future holds - the so called blind Brexit option - surely leaves the the UK at a terrible disadvantage in the negotiations? We have to have something in place at the end of the 21 months transition period,  otherwise we just crash out then instead. We'll have to accept whatever crumbs the EU decides to throw our way. 

I don't really understand you Tebee. You seem to be a smart guy. And you're definitely less abusive than most of the other remainers. But what are you trying to achieve with your posts - persuade the leavers that they were wrong, posthumously influence the result, secure a new referendum; or just let off steam?

 

I've asked other remainers this, but have rarely got a reply. Do you have a personal stake in the outcome? How will it affect you and your business?

 

( Just for the record, again, I am British, a Free Trade exit will provide me with business opportunities, but I won't have time to follow them up. Leave or stay I don't mind. I didn't vote - didn't get a vote, and I'm ok with that.)

40 minutes ago, tebee said:

Six months ahead of when UK is due to leave EU...

 

...we are facing a Brexit no sensible person acting in public interest would want, even if they are in favour of Brexit in principle...

 

...but we are going to do it anyway...

 

...future generations will think we are out of our minds.

 

This is no way to do Brexit.

When are you going to stop this conjecture?  Suspecting and knowing are different. We are leaving  with Parliamentary consent,on whatever terms the negotiators come up with. We have no influence over that.

You et al are starting to sound like those soldiers still fighting the war on Pacific islands 20 years after its conclusion. 

 

 

 

18 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

I don't really understand you Tebee. You seem to be a smart guy. And you're definitely less abusive than most of the other remainers. But what are you trying to achieve with your posts - persuade the leavers that they were wrong, posthumously influence the result, secure a new referendum; or just let off steam?

 

I've asked other remainers this, but have rarely got a reply. Do you have a personal stake in the outcome? How will it affect you and your business?

 

( Just for the record, again, I am British, a Free Trade exit will provide me with business opportunities, but I won't have time to follow them up. Leave or stay I don't mind. I didn't vote - didn't get a vote, and I'm ok with that.)

 

 

It already has affected my business - the drop in the £ post referendum has lost me 50-75%  of my UK sales.  I'm a small scale specialist designer and manufacturer, I'm based in France (but buy most of my inputs in $) and pre referendum 60% of my sales were to the UK market. I set up in France as the business would not have been viable in the UK - there I bought 2 houses + a 140 sqm workshop for £50k cash. In the UK I'd be paying £1000  per month to rent something similar and I wouldn't have had the rest of the equity from the UK house to kick start the business.  

 

Now most of the items I sell are in the £20 - 30 range. Post hard Brexit those will be subject to customs duty and Vat + the £7 fee the post office charges to collect them. I'll have to fill out a customs declaration for each thing I post . 

 

And of course there is the minor inconvenience that I have no idea if I'll have any legal right to live and work in France then.  

 

I'm adapting of course, I'm transitioning to selling digital products rather than physical ones and designing items to appeal to the North American market.

 

On a personal level, my Thai stepson, who is a doctor was intending to do his specialist studies in the UK , he has now decided to go to Germany instead as we have no idea if a British qualification will still be recognized in the rest of Europe.

 

Why do I post ? well I'm just hoping to give a few of the older leavers apoplexy and cause them to have heart attacks and so marginally shift the vote when the next referendum comes.  

 

More seriously, it's probably all of the reasons you state, and in particular the fact that I can't believe we have ended up with such stupid and dishonest politicians at Westminster  that we will end up crashing out with no deal. Yet that seems increasingly like the most likely outcome. My personal nightmare is that we leave, it all goes badly, have a GE and we end up with a Corbyn government with Henry 8th powers. 

 

 

18 minutes ago, My Thai Life said:

I don't really understand you Tebee. You seem to be a smart guy. And you're definitely less abusive than most of the other remainers. But what are you trying to achieve with your posts - persuade the leavers that they were wrong, posthumously influence the result, secure a new referendum; or just let off steam?

 

I've asked other remainers this, but have rarely got a reply. Do you have a personal stake in the outcome? How will it affect you and your business?

 

( Just for the record, again, I am British, a Free Trade exit will provide me with business opportunities, but I won't have time to follow them up. Leave or stay I don't mind. I didn't vote - didn't get a vote, and I'm ok with that.)

 

 

It already has affected my business - the drop in the £ post referendum has lost me 50-75%  of my UK sales.  I'm a small scale specialist designer and manufacturer, I'm based in France (but buy most of my inputs in $) and pre referendum 60% of my sales were to the UK market. I set up in France as the business would not have been viable in the UK - there I bought 2 houses + a 140 sqm workshop for £50k cash. In the UK I'd be paying £1000  per month to rent something similar and I wouldn't have had the rest of the equity from the UK house to kick start the business.  

 

Now most of the items I sell are in the £20 - 30 range. Post hard Brexit those will be subject to customs duty and Vat + the £7 fee the post office charges to collect them. I'll have to fill out a customs declaration for each thing I post . 

 

And of course there is the minor inconvenience that I have no idea if I'll have any legal right to live and work in France then.  

 

I'm adapting of course, I'm transitioning to selling digital products rather than physical ones and designing items to appeal to the North American market.

 

On a personal level, my Thai stepson, who is a doctor was intending to do his specialist studies in the UK , he has now decided to go to Germany instead as we have no idea if a British qualification will still be recognized in the rest of Europe.

 

Why do I post ? well I'm just hoping to give a few of the older leavers apoplexy and cause them to have heart attacks and so marginally shift the vote when the next referendum comes.  

 

More seriously, it's probably all of the reasons you state, and in particular the fact that I can't believe we have ended up with such stupid and dishonest politicians at Westminster  that we will end up crashing out with no deal. Yet that seems increasingly like the most likely outcome. My personal nightmare is that we leave, it all goes badly, have a GE and we end up with a Corbyn government with Henry 8th powers. 

 

 

19 minutes ago, aright said:

When are you going to stop this conjecture?  Suspecting and knowing are different. We are leaving  with Parliamentary consent,on whatever terms the negotiators come up with. We have no influence over that.

You et al are starting to sound like those soldiers still fighting the war on Pacific islands 20 years after its conclusion. 

 

 

 

Well the leave faction keep say we are leaving come what may - surely this is equally conjecture ?

 

but we have the most incompetent government possible - everything they say seems to be undermining the UK negotiating position. Does it not worry you that these are the people who will define the terms on which we leave ?

 

Times is rapidly running out and there is as yet no consensus on what we should be looking to get from this - even within the Conservative party.

 

I still reckon there is a good chance of it all being abandoned at the last moment. 

 

 

14 hours ago, transam said:

As if the ordinary Joe voter knew anything about deal or no deal.....?

 

Perhaps the question should be...

 

 As folk on the street, Do you like the way YOUR country is going belonging to the EU...

 

YES or NO...?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-imf-deal-uk-eu-remain-christine-lagarde-europe-better-article-iv-a8541111.html

8 hours ago, rixalex said:

Quite wrong. It would be lose lose for the government to call another vote.

It guarantees the EU offering a terrible deal, and so if British public still vote leave in spite of that terrible deal, the government would find it ten times harder to make a success of Brexit. They'd get voted out for failing to make Brexit work.

And in the more likely event of the British public being forced to say no thanks to that terrible deal, and voting to stay in the EU, the government would take the blame for having promised to respect and honour the 2016 vote, and not having done so, they'd take the blame for the EU having offered the terrible deal, because they were the ones who decided to have a second vote, and Britain would return to the EU as an embarrassing laughing stock. Leavers would hate them for the betrayal. Remainers gratitude to them for having given in to their demands for another vote would be short-lived, and they'd hate them for having kicked off they EU debate in the first place, and for being responsible for us returning to the EU on less favourable terms. They'd get voted out.

Proceeding with Brexit is by far the safest option for the government. Least dangerous perhaps that should be.

If Brexit proves the disaster you are certain it will be, the government has the excuse that they were fulfilling their pledge to the electorate and that they respected the vote. If on the other hand, Brexit is a success, they'll be able to revel in having stuck to their guns in spite of all the advice to the contrary, and having prevailed, as you would believe, against all the odds.

Not that I'm certain this government WILL take the least dangerous option. They are a shambles and so nothing would surprise me at this point.

Sent from my SM-G610F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

Wouldn’t it have been a great idea to have considered this in the Brexit plans put to the electorate before the referendum.

11 hours ago, oilinki said:

Remind me again, who are the two parties which are involved in Brexit. UK and Britain? 

 

For me it's quite ok that Britain leaves our union. It's stupid, but it's ok.

 

I tried fish n chips once. 

 

 

 

 

 

9 hours ago, Jip99 said:

The fact that it was only once says everything about you....

 

 

......you have zero credibility ??

 

Fish n chips is a traditional Belgian dish imported to the U.K. in the aftermath of WW1.

 

Doh!

 

 

9 hours ago, Jip99 said:

 

I am no great fan of May”s Chequers Brexit deal. However, I voted to leave the EU.

 

NO MORE, NO LESS.

 

In a democracy the government of the day are mandated by the electorate and I have to my trust in that government to arrange the finer details of the exit.

 

If they fork it up they will be accountable to the electorate. In this case there will be no U-turn and re-entry into the EU , so the Tories may well be returned.

 

I also recognize that whilst ‘no deal’ would be quite fun, it would not be in the UK’s best (short-term) interests. If that means May’s “My deal, or no deal” then I will go with her deal. Imperfect as it is, it is at least a start in the post-EU world.

You are entitled to your opinion and others are entitled to change their opinion.

 

In a democracy you don’t get what you want by denying others the right to change their mind.