A three-horse race for the next election?

 

 

In just a few more weeks, Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan–o–cha will make known his political future.  Many may wonder why Gen Prayut needs to wait until September to unveil what is in his mind.

 

Political observers believe the prime minister is not just trying to buy time, but his move is well–calculated.  If everything goes right, the two laws on MP elections and selection of senators will be published in the Royal Gazette in mid–September. They will take effect 90 days after that and a general election will have to be held within 150 days afterwards.

 

Also in September, the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) plans to hold a long–awaited meeting with representatives of political parties to discuss steps to pave the way to the election.  One important item on the agenda will be the partial lifting of the ban on political activities.  Politicians see the ban as a major obstruction to their preparations for the election.

 

Full story: http://englishnews.thaipbs.or.th/a-three-horse-race-for-the-next-election/

 

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2018-08-25

3 horses.....the same jockey.

 

1 minute ago, rooster59 said:

In just a few more weeks, Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan–o–cha will make known his political future

The PM has been on the campaign trail with his Thai Niyom election slush fund long enough for it to be obvious to even Blind Freddy what his political intentions are. 

This election will be a farce. The next one will be more interesting. 

The word and term poaching was used in the article. I guess the Thai PBS group will be called in now.

A three horse race where two of them are definitely non-starters. I'm willing to give the third horse the benefit of the doubt until I find out who it is.

19 minutes ago, dyertribe said:

This election will be a farce. The next one will be more interesting. 

 

When the current lot finally allow an election it may be the last one for a long while.

 

The election has already been held on a one person one vote basis. The current PM won because his is the only vote that counts. The result has not yet has not yet been published but he will win.

1 hour ago, rooster59 said:

A three-horse race for the next election

A lot of smart money is on the gelding which is flying up the home straight while the rest of the field is still behind the starting gate. The punters are screaming at the stewards and demanding the gelding be swabbed. 

Edited August 25, 20188 yr by Cadbury

32 minutes ago, billd766 said:

 

When the current lot finally allow an election it may be the last one for a long while.

 

The election has already been held on a one person one vote basis. The current PM won because his is the only vote that counts. The result has not yet has not yet been published but he will win.

 He won't win. That would be too obvious. Remember: the junta will be counting the votes and they have 60 days to announce the results - they will give PTP the most votes, but not an absolute majority (say 35 - 40%). The opposition parties will then form a coalition and select Prayuth as an outside PM.

 

And if they don't form a coalition, which leads to a hung parliament in terms of PM selection, the matter geta deferred to the Senate...so Prayuth becomes PM.

Edited August 25, 20188 yr by SABloke

1 hour ago, coulson said:

3 horses.....the same jockey.

the other two horses will probably consist of those cutouts of himself Prayut likes. 

 

 

If the race  has three jockeys i would bet that there will be a closed room discussion with the winner decided weeks before the election.

an illusion of choice. nice. Thailand like America and other democratic countries seem to keep chugging on down the same route despite who is at the wheel.

 

PT and Future Forward would trounce any Junta related coalition,

5 hours ago, rooster59 said:

A three-horse race for the next election?

It might be rather a two-horse and one donkey race.

As the military cannot lose the 3 horses are all from the same stable or also rans perhaps

Aaaand it's Pinocchio by a nose!

5 hours ago, dyertribe said:

This election will be a farce. The next one will be more interesting. 

If there is a next one.

You know.... as in the past..... assination plots are seldom known till the 'deed' is done......

I can almost feel that somewhere nearby the plotting is currently going on, in secret meetings..... I wish them sucess.....

4 hours ago, AsiaHand said:

If the race  has three jockeys i would bet that there will be a closed room discussion with the winner decided weeks before the election.

7 hours ago, dyertribe said:

This election will be a farce. The next one will be more interesting. 

You mean the one 6 juntas from now?

7 hours ago, coulson said:

3 horses.....the same jockey.

Spot on.

Same theatre, change of players.

1 hour ago, sawadeeken said:

You know.... as in the past..... assination plots are seldom known till the 'deed' is done......

I can almost feel that somewhere nearby the plotting is currently going on, in secret meetings..... I wish them sucess.....

Or....a coup and then a counter coup and so forth. 

And so it goes. The cycles continue along their lovely path.

3 hours ago, Dave67 said:

 

PT and Future Forward would trounce any Junta related coalition,

 

I don't think that they would trounce the opposition as the election is unlikely to be held un til the current lot are certain of the win, meanwhile trashing and charging the opposition with anything is a good way for them to sow fear and confusion. 

 

If they drag the cases out for long enough they can ban quite a few members by not allowing them to fight the election while they are out on bail or whatever.

6 hours ago, alant said:

As the military cannot lose the 3 horses are all from the same stable or also rans perhaps

Let us for a moment assume you are wrong and that the military can lose. What next? The government of the day are to be only be executives of NCPO and their backers' policy for the next 20 years and will carry the can for any failures.

Not so much a three horse race as a donkey derby...

3 hours ago, billd766 said:

 

I don't think that they would trounce the opposition as the election is unlikely to be held un til the current lot are certain of the win, meanwhile trashing and charging the opposition with anything is a good way for them to sow fear and confusion. 

 

If they drag the cases out for long enough they can ban quite a few members by not allowing them to fight the election while they are out on bail or whatever.

Pretty much sums it up: 'Either we run this place or nobody does.'

Call me a pessimist. 

I doubt there will be an election in 2018 , so I don't waste my time talking about pie in the sky. 

12 hours ago, Dave67 said:

 

PT and Future Forward would trounce any Junta related coalition,

Unfortunately not if Future Forward are convicted of "Computer crimes" which looks incredibly likely

16 minutes ago, lincolnshire poacher said:

Unfortunately not if Future Forward are convicted of "Computer crimes" which looks incredibly likely

You really think with the money they have anything will happen? Their lawyer is involved they can drag it out until after the election

I envision a Stolen Election just like LBJ's 1948 US Senate election.