Disorder, deal or dead-end: How will Brexit play out?

[Odysseus123]

Well..err..pretty jolly obvious isn't it?

 

However if England could retool their factories to make imitation Spitfires,Hurricanes and Lancasters then they are in there with a fighting chance..

[Sir Dude]

A Swiss style answer to trade goods and something else for people that doesn't make it difficult for like EU citizens with passports to just bail through easily at some points, maybe with an exempt for Irish who just wave a card through at some machine on all roads...all others need real visas. Should work fine. No reason remoaners should have a hissy-fit about something like this. I'm not an expert but if I can come up with that off-the-cuff (in under a minute) then all the civil servants can probably do better if they are not too busy trying to frustrate everything. It's not an impossible problem to solve, it's just that the EU don't want to discuss it seriously as it's their leverage against the UK. If you trust these duplicitous liars in Brussels then you are lost...they care for nothing other than for their own agenda. The UK is not alone in thinking this.

Edited September 21, 2018 by Sir Dude

[beautifulthailand99]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

It's amazing that some people still pretend this can end somehow positive for the UK.

The EU is not perfect, but staying in the EU is still by far the best deal they will ever get. It's obvious for anybody who pays attention and uses a brain.

I can understand the no-hoper living in Lincolnshire who says F'em I ain't got nothing so what's the difference - but for a pensioner on a fixed income living in Thailand they will get really rinsed. And yet still they cheer on the destruction. Just transferred 10k sterling into Baht at 42.1 which is starting to look like a good rate .

[Magneto]

20 minutes ago, CG1 Blue said:

Take what Sweden & Norway are using, then appoint one of our incredible tech companies to develop it further.  But this can't be done while the Remain establishment / the EU refuse to discuss it.

If they had done this much earlier we would be ready by now.

You can't just take it, but we could trade it however there are trade regulations and things that we in the EU uses.

But you dont want to be part of that so... ?

(Banter) 

[Sir Dude]

4 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I can understand the no-hoper living in Lincolnshire who says F'em I ain't got nothing so what's the difference

Yes, there are a lot of these types around now. As for expats, well, role the dice on exchange rates, and shouldn't rely on it staying the same or on it being any kind of figure really. Pound is under-valued atm and many see it rising at end of the year as some sort of deal will be made. Much posturing and grandstanding is going on at the moment so as to not lose face....but when it comes to it they will figure something out that is pragmatic.

[CG1 Blue]

6 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I can understand the no-hoper living in Lincolnshire who says F'em I ain't got nothing so what's the difference - but for a pensioner on a fixed income living in Thailand they will get really rinsed. And yet still they cheer on the destruction. Just transferred 10k sterling into Baht at 42.1 which is starting to look like a good rate .

Sterling should come back once the uncertainty goes away. But I appreciate it must be difficult right now for those in that situation.

[CG1 Blue]

26 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

If you read in detail, you will see that there are checks close to the border that still take many hours. Also, Sweden and Norway have a large smuggling problem, and this would most likely become the main smuggling route into the UK.

https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-ireland-border-customs-norway-sweden/


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Can you give an example scenario of smuggling that might take place via Ireland after Brexit, and also explain why that same smuggling doesn't  /can't take place already? Please include the benefits of a post-Brexit Ireland to the smugglers, e.g. how will it be so much more lucrative after Brexit (is it the different tax regimes etc.?)

 

I'm not being facetious. I just want to understand this argument better.

 

 

 

[brucec64]

Can you give an example scenario of smuggling that might take place via Ireland after Brexit, and also explain why that same smuggling doesn't  /can't take place already? Please include the benefits of a post-Brexit Ireland to the smugglers, e.g. how will it be so much more lucrative after Brexit (is it the different tax regimes etc.?)
 
I'm not being facetious. I just want to understand this argument better.
 
 
 

This is like a university essay question!

But yes, the smuggling will be based on different laws, taxes and tarriffs. Lets say there is no deal.and there are large tarriffs in place, especially on alcohol, tobacco and luxury goods, this border would become the conduit. The concern is that in order to police this, border checkpoints and/or border security forces would be needed on both sides, and this could reignite tensions in the area.

Also, im not sure how passport control plays into this - are there passport controls in place between Northern Ireland and Britain? If not, then this border will be the border of choice for illegal immigrants targeting the generous social system in the UK, and stopping this immigration seems to be the overriding reason for Brexit in the first place.



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[Mikeasq60]

I'm an American and I can assure the British people its for the Best. Do you want Brussells deciding your fate? Monetary, Immigration

[CG1 Blue]

6 minutes ago, brucec64 said:

This is like a university essay question!

But yes, the smuggling will be based on different laws, taxes and tarriffs. Lets say there is no deal.and there are large tarriffs in place, especially on alcohol, tobacco and luxury goods, this border would become the conduit. The concern is that in order to police this, border checkpoints and/or border security forces would be needed on both sides, and this could reignite tensions in the area.

Also, im not sure how passport control plays into this - are there passport controls in place between Northern Ireland and Britain? If not, then this border will be the border of choice for illegal immigrants targeting the generous social system in the UK, and stopping this immigration seems to be the overriding reason for Brexit in the first place.



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Difficult to know how it would all play out. There may well be issues as you describe. It would only become a real problem if material tariffs were applied by either side, and I assume neither side would want to do that.

 

I still don't understand why illegal immigrants would use Ireland to enter the UK after Brexit, i.e. why will it be easier for them after Brexit, why don't they use Ireland already? Maybe it's my hangover!

[brucec64]

Difficult to know how it would all play out. There may well be issues as you describe. It would only become a real problem if material tariffs were applied by either side, and I assume neither side would want to do that.
 
I still don't understand why illegal immigrants would use Ireland to enter the UK after Brexit, i.e. why will it be easier for them after Brexit, why don't they use Ireland already? Maybe it's my hangover!

Its not just tarriffs. Taxes and legality come into play. Norway has much higher alcohol taxes than Sweden so this has resulted in alcohol smuggling.

Currently, UK and EU laws are the same. But when they split, laws will diverge, and this creates smuggling opportunities. For example, Canada just legalized marijuana. This creates smuggling opportunities to the US. But that border is not open so the risk is fairly high. Just using that as an example, but its why EU wont easily create an open border.

Sorry for the hangover!

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[Spidey]

2 hours ago, brucec64 said:

Please give your solution the the Irish problem. So far, on this thread and others totalling thousands of posts, I have not seen one solution from any pro brexit poster, nor any understanding of the short and long term implications of no deal.

Please enlighten us with your wisdom that allows you to degree "complete nonsense". Looks like May could use your help right now.

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Easiest solution in the World and it would suit the majority of people in Ireland.

 

                                                      Give Northern Ireland back to the Republic.

 

It's been nothing but trouble since day one and a massive burden on the British taxpayer.

 

It would also allow us to call ourselves British again, rather than the confusing title, UK citizens.

[brucec64]

Easiest solution in the World and it would suit the majority of people in Ireland.
 
                                                      Give Northern Ireland back to the Republic.
 
It's been nothing but trouble since day one and a massive burden on the British taxpayer.
 
It would also allow us to call ourselves British again, rather than the confusing title, UK citizens.

May would be all over that but then she would lose her majority. Once again, politics wins over common sense.

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[damascase]

28 minutes ago, Mikeasq60 said:

I'm an American and I can assure the British people its for the Best. Do you want Brussells deciding your fate? Monetary, Immigration

By far the most uninformed ‘assurance’ I have come across here. Have you any idea of how decisions are being taken in Brussels? Let me help you: by the democratically elected governments of the EU Member States. Of course telling that to the British people wouldn’t help the Brexiteers, so any decision taken in Brussels by the Cabinet Ministers that meets opposition at home, is then referred to as being a ‘dictate’ frome the ‘unelected EU burocracy’. British people have been lied to and  have been misled - and now the EU is being blamed for not accepting the UK proposals. Well, the UK wants to leave the club. Fine, OK,  pay your outstanding contribution and you are free to go. Oh wait, you want to leave the club, not pay your fees anymore, not wear the club’s colours, not rotate in jobs to keep the club going, but you DO want to keep playing? And you want the club to compromise on your proposal?

Brexit - one of the biggest mistakes ever, I’m afraid.

[Spidey]

Just now, damascase said:

By far the most uninformed ‘assurance’ I have come across here. Have you any idea of how decisions are being taken in Brussels? Let me help you: by the democratically elected governments of the EU Member States. Of course telling that to the British people wouldn’t help the Brexiteers, so any decision taken in Brussels by the Cabinet Ministers that meets opposition at home, is then referred to as being a ‘dictate’ frome the ‘unelected EU burocracy’. British people have been lied to and  have been misled - and now the EU is being blamed for not accepting the UK proposals. Well, the UK wants to leave the club. Fine, OK,  pay your outstanding contribution and you are free to go. Oh wait, you want to leave the club, not pay your fees anymore, not wear the club’s colours, not rotate in jobs to keep the club going, but you DO want to keep playing? And you want the club to compromise on your proposal?

Brexit - one of the biggest mistakes ever, I’m afraid.

Great first post!

[bristolboy]

1 hour ago, Sir Dude said:

A Swiss style answer to trade goods and something else for people that doesn't make it difficult for like EU citizens with passports to just bail through easily at some points, maybe with an exempt for Irish who just wave a card through at some machine on all roads...all others need real visas. Should work fine. No reason remoaners should have a hissy-fit about something like this. I'm not an expert but if I can come up with that off-the-cuff (in under a minute) then all the civil servants can probably do better if they are not too busy trying to frustrate everything. It's not an impossible problem to solve, it's just that the EU don't want to discuss it seriously as it's their leverage against the UK. If you trust these duplicitous liars in Brussels then you are lost...they care for nothing other than for their own agenda. The UK is not alone in thinking this.

Switzerland allows for complete freedom of movement for members of most EU states. So they didn't get to choose free trade in goods but not free movement of people. Yours is just wishful thinking and another example of having your cake etc...

Maybe next time you should stop and think that if your thoughts can give birth to such a notion in under a minute the odds are overwhelming that it's stillborn.

Edited September 21, 2018 by bristolboy

[Odysseus123]

Tru

2 minutes ago, damascase said:

By far the most uninformed ‘assurance’ I have come across here. Have you any idea of how decisions are being taken in Brussels? Let me help you: by the democratically elected governments of the EU Member States. Of course telling that to the British people wouldn’t help the Brexiteers, so any decision taken in Brussels by the Cabinet Ministers that meets opposition at home, is then referred to as being a ‘dictate’ frome the ‘unelected EU burocracy’. British people have been lied to and  have been misled - and now the EU is being blamed for not accepting the UK proposals. Well, the UK wants to leave the club. Fine, OK,  pay your outstanding contribution and you are free to go. Oh wait, you want to leave the club, not pay your fees anymore, not wear the club’s colours, not rotate in jobs to keep the club going, but you DO want to keep playing? And you want the club to compromise on your proposal?

Brexit - one of the biggest mistakes ever, I’m afraid.

True..but if it comes to naught we will deploy our contemptible little army to the left of General Lanrezac's 5th Army ..advance on Mons and biff the boche!

 

That'll teach 'em.

[damascase]

3 minutes ago, Spidey said:

Great first post!

Thank you. I’ve been reading this forum for a long time, but there are times when you have to do more than reading alone. Got so fed up with the misinformation that I registered......... 

[damascase]

5 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Switzerland allows for complete freedom of movement for members of most EU states. So they didn't get to choose free trade in goods but not free movement of people. Yours is just wishful thinking and another example of having your cake etc...

Maybe next time you should stop and think that if your thought can give birth to such a notion in under a minute the odds are overwhelming that it's stillborn.

Yes, Switzerland is a signatory to the Schengen Agreement - something that the UK refused.

[BritManToo]

3 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

It's amazing that some people still pretend this can end somehow positive for the UK.

It worked out OK in 1945.

But I'm betting the UK won't leave (or it'll say it's left, while effectively still being in).

Edited September 21, 2018 by BritManToo

[OneMoreFarang]

5 minutes ago, BritManToo said:

It worked out OK in 1945.

But I'm betting the UK won't leave (or it'll say it's left, while effectively still being in).

Exactly which part from 2018 is comparable to 1945?

[bristolboy]

Just now, OneMoreFarang said:

Exactly which part from 2018 is comparable to 1945?

Counting on the Americans to bail out the UK.

[CG1 Blue]

17 minutes ago, damascase said:

By far the most uninformed ‘assurance’ I have come across here. Have you any idea of how decisions are being taken in Brussels? Let me help you: by the democratically elected governments of the EU Member States. Of course telling that to the British people wouldn’t help the Brexiteers, so any decision taken in Brussels by the Cabinet Ministers that meets opposition at home, is then referred to as being a ‘dictate’ frome the ‘unelected EU burocracy’. British people have been lied to and  have been misled - and now the EU is being blamed for not accepting the UK proposals. Well, the UK wants to leave the club. Fine, OK,  pay your outstanding contribution and you are free to go. Oh wait, you want to leave the club, not pay your fees anymore, not wear the club’s colours, not rotate in jobs to keep the club going, but you DO want to keep playing? And you want the club to compromise on your proposal?

Brexit - one of the biggest mistakes ever, I’m afraid.

The European Commission is responsible for proposing legislation, spending the lion's share of the budget and overseeing approved legislation, programmes and expenditure and represents the EU in trade agreements.

The Commission also decides on competition policy in Europe, e.g, whether state subsidies should be approved, and whether mergers should go ahead.

The British people don't elect the EC. The British people elect MEPs, of which the UK has 72 out of 750+ in the parliament.

The UK have voted against EU legislation on 70+ occasions, and the legislation has been passed.

 

Whilst in the EU we definitely have limited powers over legislation.

 

However, I do agree things have been exaggerated  - but on both sides of the argument

[j8k]

The UK needs to be out of the EU completely. 

 

There are interesting ideas being put forward by the CANZUK organisation that advocates for free movement and trade between Canada, AU, NZ and the UK. 

 

The CANZUK block would be the third largest economy in the world covering a huge geographical area.

 

A shared history and values would bind the countries together even closer. 

 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/CANZUK/

 

http://www.canzukinternational.com/

 

 

[bomber]

10 minutes ago, j8k said:

The UK needs to be out of the EU completely. 

 

There are interesting ideas being put forward by the CANZUK organisation that advocates for free movement and trade between Canada, AU, NZ and the UK. 

 

The CANZUK block would be the third largest economy in the world covering a huge geographical area.

 

A shared history and values would bind the countries together even closer. 

 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/CANZUK/

 

http://www.canzukinternational.com/

 

 

it means <deleted> all,all this talk of these great deals to be had are a load of <deleted>,germanys biggest trading partner is china,says it all really

[bristolboy]

3 minutes ago, j8k said:

The UK needs to be out of the EU completely. 

 

There are interesting ideas being put forward by the CANZUK organisation that advocates for free movement and trade between Canada, AU, NZ and the UK. 

 

The CANZUK block would be the third largest economy in the world covering a huge geographical area.

 

A shared history and values would bind the countries together even closer. 

 

https://www.facebook.com/groups/CANZUK/

 

http://www.canzukinternational.com/

 

 

It's  a fact of economics that the amount of trade countries do with each other is inversely proportional to their distance from each other.  In addition the populations of Canada, Australia and New Zealand are just about equal to the population of France.  The UK is going to be very hard pressed to increase its exports to Canada given that it shares a border with the USA. Of course if NAFTA collapses that would help somewhat but still the proximity of the US is a formidable barrier to increased trade.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_United_Kingdom

[nausea]

I'd be worried if there weren't some last minute manoeuverings. Who'll blink first, that's the real question.

[baboon]

1 hour ago, damascase said:

Thank you. I’ve been reading this forum for a long time, but there are times when you have to do more than reading alone. Got so fed up with the misinformation that I registered......... 

And it's good to have you on board. Welcome to Thaivisa as a poster!

[Sir Dude]

Well Chompy...a refreshing change that you are laughing instead of usually being confused. Renaissances are not just something that happen to other people...lol

[Chomper Higgot]

1 hour ago, BritManToo said:

It worked out OK in 1945.

But I'm betting the UK won't leave (or it'll say it's left, while effectively still being in).

1945 was the start of Britain being stripped of its empire, the continuation of rationing, the first istallments on a war debt that would take decades to clear and the commencement of a decline in Britain’s fortunes that did not turnaround untill after the U.K. joined the European Common Market.