Elected govt to be at mercy of Senate

By SOMROUTAI SAPSOMBOON 
THE NATION

 

 

PRIME MINISTER Prayut Chan-o-cha recently admitted to his “interest in politics”, which observers interpret as opting to become a political party’s prime ministerial candidate in the next general election.
 

If General Prayut really wants to return as head of a post-election government, at the least he is guaranteed strong support from the 250-member Senate, which is to be appointed by the ruling junta – the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).

 

Judging from the current Constitution, which came into effect in April 2017, the Upper House is designed to serve as a helping hand for a pro-NCPO government and a big obstacle to one that is anti-NCPO.

 

 

The first Senate under the new charter, which will serve a five-year term, will be entirely appointed by the junta. Although 50 out of the 250 members will be voted in by fellow applicants and nominees, they need to get their final approval from the NCPO.

 

The junta will select the final 50 from a list of 200 candidates who get the highest number of votes from fellow applicants and nominees. People who want to become senators can apply directly to be voted by fellow applicants to get the first 100 candidates. Eligible organisations can also nominate their candidates to be voted on by fellow nominees, to get another 100 candidates.

 

Also, transitory provisions of the Constitution give the first Senate extra powers that certainly favour the NCPO while also making it hard for its rivals. 

 

These include the power to vote along with the 500-member House of Representatives to select a prime minister in the event that the Lower House is unable to reach an accord over the matter. 

 

For the first five years, the Senate also is empowered to jointly deliberate with the House of Representatives on any bills deemed to be related to national reform. And the Senate has the power to veto, at joint meetings of the two Houses, any bill on amnesty.

 

If a pro-junta political party forms the government after the election, the Upper House is likely to provide strong support during its rule. But if anti-junta parties win the election and gain political power, the Senate could become a stumbling block, making it difficult for that government to rule.

 

In the past, only MPs were allowed to vote in the selection of a prime minister. This time, if they fail to agree on who should become the new head of government, senators will be allowed to also join in the choosing. To be able to form a new government, the winner needs support from more than half of both Houses, or at least 376 parliamentarians.

 

Major political parties – including Pheu Thai and Democrat – have stressed that any party that could garner support from more than half of the House of Representatives, or 250 MPs, should be allowed to form the next coalition government. They said the voters’ mandate should not be distorted.

 

The senators are unlikely to back someone unrelated to the junta to become the next prime minister. And unlike the previous one, this Constitution does not set any deadline for the House to select a prime minister. 

 

That means General Prayut, who heads the NCPO, could remain in his seat as the government head and have wide-ranging powers under Article 44 of the post-coup interim charter, for as long as election winners are unable to form a coalition administration.

 

Regarding the Senate’s power to jointly deliberate reform-related bills with the Lower House, a pro-NCPO government may interpret the Constitution in a way that their draft laws – even the budget bills – are regarded as relating to national reform. This way they could get support from the Upper House during parliamentary voting.

 

If he returns as prime minister, Prayut’s main concern in Parliament is likely to involve censure debates – as only the House of Representatives are involved in these and thus the Senate would not be able to offer him a helping hand.

 

The Senate will prove a major hurdle for a post-election government formed by anti-NCPO parties such as Pheu Thai, which some view as a proxy for former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

 

Upper House members could seek joint deliberations for bills proposed by an anti-NCPO government on the grounds that they are related to national reform. Any disagreement over the matter would be decided by a joint committee chaired by the Senate speaker, according to the Constitution.

 

If they want, senators may also join forces with opposition MPs in voting down government-backed bills. And an embarrassing loss in Parliament over major legislation could result in the government being pressured to take responsibility.

 

Regarding the Senate’s power to veto amnesty bills, a pro-Thaksin coalition would find it more difficult to do what the Yingluck Shinawatra government did in 2013. At that time, government MPs managed to push through a law that would have offered blanket amnesty to all involved in recent political conflicts, including those facing corruption and murder charges. Parliament’s passage of the bill led to street protests, culminating in the military coup in May 2014.

 

The new charter states that support from two-thirds of both Houses, or at least 500 parliamentarians, is required to pass an amnesty bill.

 

In order to block a non-NCPO government, the junta needs to prevent either Pheu Thai or Democrat parties from winning more than half of the MP seats so that neither of them could quickly form a government without coalition partners. The junta’s goal is for Palang Pracharat Party, which is expected to nominate General Prayut as prime minister, to come second in terms of MP numbers.

 

If they can achieve that goal, the pro-junta party would have a better chance to form a coalition government, with support from the Democrats. Pheu Thai and Democrats have long been bitter enemies and are unlikely to work together.

 

It remains to be seen if the junta’s manoeuvring will result in the junta leader-cum-prime minister returning to power. But at least the senators they appoint will become a major unified force in Parliament and be able to influence politics after the election.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/politics/30355996

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2018-10-08

Interesting article; I wonder how many Thai people will read it and understand that they voted for it during the 'referendum'?

 

"...Judging from the current Constitution, which came into effect in April 2017, the Upper House is designed to serve as a helping hand for a pro-NCPO government and a big obstacle to one that is anti-NCPO..."

 

The above quote is accurate, but I believe not relevant.

 

if Prayut and the Junta cheat their way back into power through "elections", the Senate won't matter.

 

If the democratic forces make up a majority and select a Prime Minister, they will have 'legitimacy' and the Senate/Senators will not. In such a scenario, the first thing they should do is provoke a fight with the Senate; if they win, they will have gained the upper hand. If they lose, they will have exposed Thailand to international ridicule and laughter as a fake democracy. Further they would force the Junta to act; if there is another coup, then the military would be discredited. Yes, the military would likely take power again, but if they take power again, so shortly after returning it, they are the ones who will suffer politically.

 

Governments, even authoritarian military ones, need a certain amount of public support. If the forces of Democracy force a confrontation, they will win in the short term through public backing or in the long-term through the discrediting of the military as a governing force (I'd be hoping for the former!).

 

What is required is for the Thai people to give the forces of goodness a big mandate. Will they do it? I sure as hell hope so...

 

2 hours ago, webfact said:

The first Senate under the new charter, which will serve a five-year term, will be entirely appointed by the junta. Although 50 out of the 250 members will be voted in by fellow applicants and nominees, they need to get their final approval from the NCPO.

the plan is laid more bare, following in the myanmar model; fake democracy

For the citizens that depend on TV and social media for their news the 'forced silence' that accompanied the constitution referendum was a major victory for the NCPO. Many have probably still not worked out quite how this election has been fixed before a vote has been cast. The reality will come post election when they find out their votes meant very little. 

4 hours ago, webfact said:

That means General Prayut, who heads the NCPO, could remain in his seat as the government head and have wide-ranging powers under Article 44 of the post-coup interim charter

 

Edited October 8, 20187 yr by RichardColeman

4 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

if Prayut and the Junta cheat their way back into power through "elections", the Senate won't matter.

Can't the Senate block any constitutional amendments (ie., change or repeal the NCPO 20-year reform plan), assuming an elected/appointed PM Prayut is not able to block them in the Parliament?

3 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Can't the Senate block any constitutional amendments (ie., change or repeal the NCPO 20-year reform plan), assuming an elected/appointed PM Prayut is not able to block them in the Parliament?

The lesson of twenty plus constitutions in eighty years is that political change in Thailand does not rely on written rules, laws or constitutions.

 

If an elected government gains power with a mandate from the people, they will have great power. If the people do not support them, they won't.

 

Constitutions, laws, rules and regulations don't matter. Political support does.

 

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The junta will select the final 50 from a list of 200 candidates

Even worse than alleged vote buying. 

23 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

Can't the Senate block any constitutional amendments (ie., change or repeal the NCPO 20-year reform plan), assuming an elected/appointed PM Prayut is not able to block them in the Parliament?

It's either a three fifiths or a two thirds majority of the combined both Houses that is needed to change the Constitution. A tall order indeed when all the senators are in the junta's pocket. However, an elected government could hold a referendum to propose changes to the Constitution. This would be supported by all the political parties and could heap pressure on the senators to agree to changes.

...and there are still people calling this planned charade an 'election'.

There will be a new coup. They will tire of Prayut. He will join Yingluck

7 hours ago, webfact said:

The first Senate under the new charter, which will serve a five-year term, will be entirely appointed by the junta. Although 50 out of the 250 members will be voted in by fellow applicants and nominees, they need to get their final approval from the NCPO.

What if the NCPO will be replaced by an interim government which mean that the selection and appointment panel for the senators will not be in junta's grasp. Anything is possible now.  

2 hours ago, bannork said:

It's either a three fifiths or a two thirds majority of the combined both Houses that is needed to change the Constitution. A tall order indeed when all the senators are in the junta's pocket. However, an elected government could hold a referendum to propose changes to the Constitution. This would be supported by all the political parties and could heap pressure on the senators to agree to changes.

It's worse than that. It needs the agreement of 20% of MPs of each political party to modify the constitution. So any small pro-military party can block it. And also one third of senators.

I wonder what rules they have designed about calling for a referendum. Anyone knows?

"Regarding the Senate’s power to jointly deliberate reform-related bills with the Lower House, a pro-NCPO government may interpret the Constitution in a way that their draft laws – even the budget bills – are regarded as relating to national reform. This way they could get support from the Upper House during parliamentary voting."

 

We've been wondering for some time how an outsider PM may be able to pass laws without a clear majority in the lower house. Now we know....

1 hour ago, candide said:

I wonder what rules they have designed about calling for a referendum. Anyone knows?

Found this.

2017 Constitution, CHAPTER VIII, Council of Ministers, Article 166:

• In the case where are reasonable grounds, the Council of Ministers may call for a referendum on any matter which is not contrary to or inconsistent with the Constitution or an issue relating to any individual or a group of persons as provided by law.*

The Election Commission would be responsible for conducting the referendum voteas per the Constitution.

How the referendum would be delivered to the public maybe look to the 2017 referendum on the 2016 draft constitution as a guide. The pro-military appointed NLA passed the Referendum Act that severely limited freedom of speech that likely favored majority acceptance of the junta-drafted constitution.

 

*translation has been prepared by Legal Opinion and Translation Section, Foreign Law Division under the legal duty of the Office of the Council of State for information purpose only.

Military ladened legislative body.

 

Imagine that.

 

And this is why the whole process is a sham , no person in there right mind should stand for politics when this 250 senators elected by the junta is to be used, the Senate is a sham, the Prayut government is a sham.

10 hours ago, Samui Bodoh said:

Political support does.

How well did the majority political support put Yingluck back in as PM in 2014? It didn't.

The lesson of twelve (out of twenty total) successful military coups in eighty years is that political change in Thailand has relied on support from a minority elitist backed by military extra-constitutional power. Political change by the majority will require more than elections and, as you mentioned, constitutions.

In short there has to be a restructuring of Thailand's pillars of society that truly places sovereignty of Thailand into a wai to the Thai Peoples.

37 minutes ago, chainarong said:

And this is why the whole process is a sham , no person in there right mind should stand for politics when this 250 senators elected by the junta is to be used, the Senate is a sham, the Prayut government is a sham.

To add: The on-again/off-again so called "civilian democratic" governments that Thailand has enjoyed of the last couple of decades, one will be noticing the dominate military presence throughout both houses. 

 

It's a way of life throughout Thai political history. 

A military oligarchical state. 

31 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

How well did the majority political support put Yingluck back in as PM in 2014? It didn't.

The lesson of twelve (out of twenty total) successful military coups in eighty years is that political change in Thailand has relied on support from a minority elitist backed by military extra-constitutional power. Political change by the majority will require more than elections and, as you mentioned, constitutions.

In short there has to be a restructuring of Thailand's pillars of society that truly places sovereignty of Thailand into a wai to the Thai Peoples.

.....and the connective dots go missing.

Seems as few can figure out the puzzle, even when it's in plain sight.

10 hours ago, Srikcir said:

Found this.

2017 Constitution, CHAPTER VIII, Council of Ministers, Article 166:

• In the case where are reasonable grounds, the Council of Ministers may call for a referendum on any matter which is not contrary to or inconsistent with the Constitution or an issue relating to any individual or a group of persons as provided by law.*

The Election Commission would be responsible for conducting the referendum voteas per the Constitution.

How the referendum would be delivered to the public maybe look to the 2017 referendum on the 2016 draft constitution as a guide. The pro-military appointed NLA passed the Referendum Act that severely limited freedom of speech that likely favored majority acceptance of the junta-drafted constitution.

 

 

 

*translation has been prepared by Legal Opinion and Translation Section, Foreign Law Division under the legal duty of the Office of the Council of State for information purpose only.

Hmmmm... Is a referendum about scratching this constitution contrary to the constitution? I guess the Constitutional Court must decide about it. It's not likely they would accept it.

Real gamblers do not gamble. They rely on stacked decks.

Somebody in the forum asked 'what do thais think?' My thai partner said 'Everything in thailand is corruption, there is no democracy'. Well i guess that just about sums it up.

10 hours ago, Srikcir said:

How well did the majority political support put Yingluck back in as PM in 2014? It didn't.

The lesson of twelve (out of twenty total) successful military coups in eighty years is that political change in Thailand has relied on support from a minority elitist backed by military extra-constitutional power. Political change by the majority will require more than elections and, as you mentioned, constitutions.

In short there has to be a restructuring of Thailand's pillars of society that truly places sovereignty of Thailand into a wai to the Thai Peoples.

An excellent post as always...

 

I fully agree with looking at the past in order to try to create a predictive political model for the future, as imperfect a method as that may be.

 

My dispute with your post above is that one of the prime variables of Thai history since the middle of the last century has changed, and when a prime variable changes, it has unknown ripple effects through all models of predictive political behaviour.

 

Thailand 2018/19 is not the same as Thailand 1973-76, Thailand 1992, Thailand 2006 or even Thailand 2013/14.

 

Variables, variables...

 

 

 

Edited October 8, 20187 yr by Samui Bodoh

On 10/7/2018 at 4:54 PM, webfact said:

If General Prayut really wants to return as head of a post-election government, at the least he is guaranteed strong support from the 250-member Senate, which is to be appointed by the ruling junta – the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).

There can only be one master!

27 minutes ago, chama said:

There can only be one master!

....and more important, the puppet master.