Just finished reading "The Looming Towers ' by Lawrence Wright , tracing the road to 9/11 etc and the rise of Bin Laden.

 

At one point Laden caused so much havoc in Egypt , Algeria etc  that the Saudis considered  an  assassination attempt

but concluded the were " clumsy assassins "  and tried to sub contract the job.

 

No change there then !

 

Well, Ms. Haspel's Senate briefing doesn't bode well for messrs trump, mattis and pompeo.

 

"There is no smoking gun...there is a smoking bone saw."

 

Oh, no he didn't.

 

 

Saudi crown prince 'ordered, monitored' killing of Khashoggi, Corker says

 

Washington (CNN)Republican senators reacted with outrage Tuesday after leaving a classified briefing about the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, promising swift action to confront both Saudi Arabia and the White House's timid response to the killing.

 

GOP Sens. Bob Corker of Tennessee and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina are leading the charge to offer new legislation that would rebuke Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as potentially limit US involvement in the Saudi-led war in Yemen, saying their push was bolstered by the classified briefing, which detailed intelligence linking the Saudi leader to the murder of the US-based journalist.

"There's not a smoking gun, there's a smoking saw," said Graham, referring to reports that the Saudi team had included a forensic expert who arrived with equipment to dismember Khashoggi's body.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/04/politics/haspel-briefing-khashoggi/index.html

 

 

 

if you go back and listen to Pompeo and Mathis's explanation, they said that there is no evidence that direectly ties MBS to ordering the murder.  I suspect that they are right unless there is a confession or a recording of a call that MBS told somebody to kill him.  What the CIA has said is also correct as they have done the investigation and there is  evidence that MBS most likely ordered the murder and this was presented to Corker and Graham and they agree.  So they both are right, but, unfortunately, Trump wags the tail of the dog!to

5 minutes ago, mtls2005 said:

Saudi crown prince 'ordered, monitored' killing of Khashoggi

The CIA said it had "high confidence" to this conclusion.

"High Confidence" in the intelligence community is at least 95%.

Compare to the intelligence confidence that Obama faced regarding Bin Laden's suspected residence in Islamabad:

• CIA assigned team leader - 95%
• Deputy Director of Intelligence Michael Morell - 60%
• "Other people" - 30% to 80%

Obama concluded 50/50 odds that bin Laden was living in Abbottabad.

https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/fs/rzeckhau/Estimative_Probability.pdf

Obama took immediate action and Bin Laden paid for his crimes against the American people.

Trump lies to the American people and protects a murderer.

Make America Goosestep Again.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, mtls2005 said:

Well, Ms. Haspel's Senate briefing doesn't bode well for messrs trump, mattis and pompeo.

 

"There is no smoking gun...there is a smoking bone saw."

 

Oh, no he didn't.

 

 

Saudi crown prince 'ordered, monitored' killing of Khashoggi, Corker says

 

Washington (CNN)Republican senators reacted with outrage Tuesday after leaving a classified briefing about the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi, promising swift action to confront both Saudi Arabia and the White House's timid response to the killing.

 

GOP Sens. Bob Corker of Tennessee and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina are leading the charge to offer new legislation that would rebuke Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as potentially limit US involvement in the Saudi-led war in Yemen, saying their push was bolstered by the classified briefing, which detailed intelligence linking the Saudi leader to the murder of the US-based journalist.

"There's not a smoking gun, there's a smoking saw," said Graham, referring to reports that the Saudi team had included a forensic expert who arrived with equipment to dismember Khashoggi's body.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/12/04/politics/haspel-briefing-khashoggi/index.html

 

 

 

They will back down. Graham has been shouting a lot but never did anything substantial that went against Trump. This time will be the same.

On 12/5/2018 at 8:58 AM, Srikcir said:

The CIA said it had "high confidence" to this conclusion.

"High Confidence" in the intelligence community is at least 95%.

Compare to the intelligence confidence that Obama faced regarding Bin Laden's suspected residence in Islamabad:

• CIA assigned team leader - 95%
• Deputy Director of Intelligence Michael Morell - 60%
• "Other people" - 30% to 80%

Obama concluded 50/50 odds that bin Laden was living in Abbottabad.

https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/fs/rzeckhau/Estimative_Probability.pdf

Obama took immediate action and Bin Laden paid for his crimes against the American people.

Trump lies to the American people and protects a murderer.

Make America Goosestep Again.

 

 

 

 

"High Confidence" in the intelligence community is at least 95%.

 

As far as I'm aware and recall, "high confidence" would denote a range between 75%-80% to 93%-95%. It would depend on which "set" was applied (there were at least two versions). So not "at least" - but rather, at most. The WMD thing was "high confidence" as well, by the way.

4 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

"High Confidence" in the intelligence community is at least 95%.

 

As far as I'm aware and recall, "high confidence" would denote a range between 75%-80% to 93%-95%. It would depend on which "set" was applied (there were at least two versions). So not "at least" - but rather, at most. The WMD thing was "high confidence" as well, by the way.

But in the WMD case lots of pressure was being applied by the White House to come to that conclusion. In this case the pressure from the White House would be in exactly the opposite direction.

6 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

But in the WMD case lots of pressure was being applied by the White House to come to that conclusion. In this case the pressure from the White House would be in exactly the opposite direction.

 

Doesn't have much to do with the point made, which was more "technical" in nature. If anything, your comment illustrates that even the phrasing system employed is not fully resistant to undue attempts to influence or spin conclusions.

18 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Doesn't have much to do with the point made, which was more "technical" in nature. If anything, your comment illustrates that even the phrasing system employed is not fully resistant to undue attempts to influence or spin conclusions.

I didn't invoke the WMD example. Someone must have thought it to be relevant or else why mention it at all? So I'm afraid I'm going to have to defend the validity of raising the issue in the post by the Morch who did so (but not his conclusion)  and not by the Morch who now seeks to discount it.

Edited December 10, 20187 yr by bristolboy

And now there are reports by the WPO that Kushner has been  "conniving" ( my word) with MBS on how to best address his response to the accusations.  It' reported that he is doing this by un-monitored phone calls and emails directly to MBS.  No senior official other than the president is supposed to have any communication with a foreign power unless it is monitored by a NsA representative.  The Trump clan really think that they are above the law!

10 minutes ago, wayned said:

And now there are reports by the WPO that Kushner has been  "conniving" ( my word) with MBS on how to best address his response to the accusations.  It' reported that he is doing this by un-monitored phone calls and emails directly to MBS.  No senior official other than the president is supposed to have any communication with a foreign power unless it is monitored by a NsA representative.  The Trump clan really think that they are above the law!

The Wooing of Jared Kushner: How the Saudis Got a Friend in the White House

 

Senior American officials were worried. Since the early months of the Trump administration, Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and Middle East adviser, had been having private, informal conversations with Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the favorite son of Saudi Arabia’s king.

Given Mr. Kushner’s political inexperience, the private exchanges could make him susceptible to Saudi manipulation, said three former senior American officials...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/08/world/middleeast/saudi-mbs-jared-kushner.html

48 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

But in the WMD case lots of pressure was being applied by the White House to come to that conclusion. In this case the pressure from the White House would be in exactly the opposite direction.

The real pressure came from the FED, the IMF, and the world banking community. Saddam had started selling his oil in Euros. Not good for the petro-dollar that.

4 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

The real pressure came from the FED, the IMF, and the world banking community. Saddam had started selling his oil in Euros. Not good for the petro-dollar that.

Sure. Why wouldn't we trust your judgement about this. Weren't you the party who predicted that dollar would collapse by November of 2018? 

4 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Sure. Why wouldn't we trust your judgement about this. Weren't you the party who predicted that dollar would collapse by November of 2018? 

I forecast December (this month). Or a big war to bolster the dollar.

 

Not my judgment; matter of fact about the sale of oil in Euros.

 

My opinion about why Saddam was overthrown

 

21 minutes ago, wayned said:

It' reported that he is doing this by un-monitored phone calls and emails directly to MBS. 

NSA intelligence agencies have authority to intercept and monitor foreign citizen communications outside the US while foreign nations can do the same with Americans inside the US. Under the Five Eyes Agreement US and Allies share intelligence intercepts (ie., see Steele dossier).

So it's likely that phone calls and emails received by MBS have been intercepted by the US and phone calls and emails received by Kushner have been intercepted by US Allies.

Also, if the FBI can prove a prima facie case that Kushner might be operating as an unregistered agent for a foreign state, it could with a FISA warrant under the Foreign Agents Registration Act intercept Kushner's domestic communications with MBS.

Cutting to the chase, it would be alleged un-monitored phone calls and emails directly to MBS.

26 minutes ago, owl sees all said:

The real pressure came from the FED, the IMF, and the world banking community. Saddam had started selling his oil in Euros. Not good for the petro-dollar that.

Hello! Its the Conspiracy Theory Team just arrived on the thread with their loopy analysis.

3 minutes ago, SheungWan said:

Hello! Its the Conspiracy Theory Team just arrived on the thread with their loopy analysis.

Won't you feel foolish when war breaks out or the dollar collapses in the next 21 days.

59 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

I didn't invoke the WMD example. Someone must have thought it to be relevant or else why mention it at all? So I'm afraid I'm going to have to defend the validity of raising the issue in the post by the Morch who did so (but not his conclusion)  and not by the Morch who now seeks to discount it.

 

Oh, look...another routine attempt to pick a pointless argument over a side issue. Twist it all you like, my original post was about the "high confidence" thing.

8 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Won't you feel foolish when war breaks out or the dollar collapses in the next 21 days.

Not if I am a leading member of The Conspiracy.

56 minutes ago, Morch said:

 

Oh, look...another routine attempt to pick a pointless argument over a side issue. Twist it all you like, my original post was about the "high confidence" thing.

Just because you introduced a piece of evidence, that doesn't mean you get to own it. Just accept that it backfired on you and move on.

7 minutes ago, bristolboy said:

Just because you introduced a piece of evidence, that doesn't mean you get to own it. Just accept that it backfired on you and move on.

 

It wasn't "introduced" as a "piece of evidence", other than in your rendering of my post. Rather, it's your usual way of focusing on minor issues, and blowing them out of proportion. Nothing "backfired", and it is you who should move on, but doubt you will.