Trade war has little to no impact on Thai economy: UTCC

[simoh1490]

Well that was a debate killer, two Americans who try to debate Thailands trade deficit and when presented with some facts, one slings some mud and then runs away and hides whilst the other diverts by talking about how important America is to the world, there's no hope I'm afraid!

[Johnnyngai]

As long as Thailand plays good boy to the big countries,

Thailand can have all the trade deficits with all the big countries.   

No one would smack a smiling little boy.   

[simoh1490]

52 minutes ago, Johnnyngai said:

As long as Thailand plays good boy to the big countries,

Thailand can have all the trade deficits with all the big countries.   

No one would smack a smiling little boy.   

Exactly, which is why there's no hard and fast rules regarding percentages or ratio's/ The US clearly wants Thailand as an ally in the region, evidence Cobra Gold et al, after all, if they don't have Thailand who else is going to partner with them: the PI and Japan are already sick of their behaviour and trying to close their bases there, I suppose there's always Laos and Myanmar! That sort of relationship is typically one that gets bought via trade, especially when it comes to small, inconsequential countries, it's a cheap solution. Personally, if I were Thailand and the US wanted the relationship with me that it does from Thailand, I'd be asking for more, lots more.

[thailand49]

6 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

That was my question to you but in reverse! So since you can't or won't answer that question, try and answer this one:

 

What should the ratio of exports to imports be between two countries, 1:1, clearly you don't like 2:1! And if it's supposed to be 1:1, why must it balanced other than to demonstrate a perfect world, which it is far from. Clearly, American business sees advantages to having manufacturing plants in Thailand/Asia in order to service regional markets, that makes sense to them and to most people but not to some members of the US government. That being the case, why penalise the host country for providing a more cost-effective and accommodative business environment than their own country does.

I don't need to really answer the question. I am not disputing your number but in reality in life on the ground it doesn't benefit or even remotely close to being equal.  I didn't support Trump but even before him this was a problem but he is the only one addressing it. Even him doesn't really expect a 1 or 1 ratio I don't.  

As article after article being written explain the position as to why America there is a difference in trade due to the War in Europe the principle has gone far beyond the intend. Even the new trade deals with Canada/Mexico there isn't a 1-1 ratio I noted again if you missed it the first time I don't expect a 1-1 ratio, I note just like Trump FAIR!

 

Prior to Trump other countries to their credit as you noted " cost-effective accommodation business wise as we all know American government taxation them to move and he has since made attempt to reverse that by providing more incentive to American companies to return without by reducing the taxes they need to pay to bring pay the billion that are sitting off shore example is Apple return of billions to the U.S.

 

Sure companies still operate outside because the labor and operating cost is still less these large companies like a franchise store can produce and lose money in one market but in the end the bottom numbers is what matters as long as it is in the black?  Take for example 7/11 you think every store is making huge amount of money as they use to go around selling if you buy one of their franchise?  

 

Today, Americans are paying for loving cheap T.V. the Walmarts, etc.. that is how companies and government officials who got large donations to vote for these types of trade agreements. While Americans were buying 50 flat screens behind their backs they were paying more in other area's for other items this is the perfect storm for the Chinese since they are the master of the art of war.  What you see isn't what you are going to get this theory goes far beyond just trade you see it everyday in conflicts with China, Russia, Iran, North Korea even Thailand.

 

With China,  you have to provide your intellectual property to operate and companies are so hard that they will because they can still make a profit but many of these same companies get large tax benefits from our government talk about entitlement and socialism?  When it comes to China, I've seen it first hand when the four economic zones were started, companies like Nike did what they had to do to get where they are today they sold their soles for the all mighty dollar on the backs of millions of Chinese in their sweat shops while claiming they knew nothing.  

 

When it comes to Thailand whether you want to pay it or not or have the money to do it, it does nothing for a consumer from the West who lives here when you go into a super market franchise from the West, or Europe that hires millions of Thai workers and you stroll down the shelves and see the mark ups.

 

Everything 35-40 markup 

Cheese, potato chips, deli meat, American beef T-bone 1 kg 3000 baht = $100 USD,  Timberland shoes made in Thailand/Indonesia still 7000-10,000 baht. I can list you another thousand of examples.  Today go to the new Terminal 21 in Pattaya and see the markups I too wonder how these so called American companies make money but like you I guess they do somehow or otherwise why bother but boots on the ground everyday life for Expats it doesn't seem fair does it when their products enter our country barely tax what so ever.  In the end, is it right I don't if you do we will just end with agree to disagree. 

[simoh1490]

1 hour ago, thailand49 said:

I don't need to really answer the question. I am not disputing your number but in reality in life on the ground it doesn't benefit or even remotely close to being equal.  I didn't support Trump but even before him this was a problem but he is the only one addressing it. Even him doesn't really expect a 1 or 1 ratio I don't.  

As article after article being written explain the position as to why America there is a difference in trade due to the War in Europe the principle has gone far beyond the intend. Even the new trade deals with Canada/Mexico there isn't a 1-1 ratio I noted again if you missed it the first time I don't expect a 1-1 ratio, I note just like Trump FAIR!

 

Prior to Trump other countries to their credit as you noted " cost-effective accommodation business wise as we all know American government taxation them to move and he has since made attempt to reverse that by providing more incentive to American companies to return without by reducing the taxes they need to pay to bring pay the billion that are sitting off shore example is Apple return of billions to the U.S.

 

Sure companies still operate outside because the labor and operating cost is still less these large companies like a franchise store can produce and lose money in one market but in the end the bottom numbers is what matters as long as it is in the black?  Take for example 7/11 you think every store is making huge amount of money as they use to go around selling if you buy one of their franchise?  

 

Today, Americans are paying for loving cheap T.V. the Walmarts, etc.. that is how companies and government officials who got large donations to vote for these types of trade agreements. While Americans were buying 50 flat screens behind their backs they were paying more in other area's for other items this is the perfect storm for the Chinese since they are the master of the art of war.  What you see isn't what you are going to get this theory goes far beyond just trade you see it everyday in conflicts with China, Russia, Iran, North Korea even Thailand.

 

With China,  you have to provide your intellectual property to operate and companies are so hard that they will because they can still make a profit but many of these same companies get large tax benefits from our government talk about entitlement and socialism?  When it comes to China, I've seen it first hand when the four economic zones were started, companies like Nike did what they had to do to get where they are today they sold their soles for the all mighty dollar on the backs of millions of Chinese in their sweat shops while claiming they knew nothing.  

 

When it comes to Thailand whether you want to pay it or not or have the money to do it, it does nothing for a consumer from the West who lives here when you go into a super market franchise from the West, or Europe that hires millions of Thai workers and you stroll down the shelves and see the mark ups.

 

Everything 35-40 markup 

Cheese, potato chips, deli meat, American beef T-bone 1 kg 3000 baht = $100 USD,  Timberland shoes made in Thailand/Indonesia still 7000-10,000 baht. I can list you another thousand of examples.  Today go to the new Terminal 21 in Pattaya and see the markups I too wonder how these so called American companies make money but like you I guess they do somehow or otherwise why bother but boots on the ground everyday life for Expats it doesn't seem fair does it when their products enter our country barely tax what so ever.  In the end, is it right I don't if you do we will just end with agree to disagree. 

Firstly: 7/11 in Thailand is a franchise so it's not the 7/11 you know from the US, I have no doubt that 7/11 USA is making a very healthy profit from it's franchised operations in Thailand.

 

Secondly: you appear to look at trade as being the total picture, in reality trade is only a part of the picture since the US is effectively buying a relationship which gives them a presence in Thailand, a special relationship of sorts and that's worth money which is translated into trade concessions, in that respect perhaps even a 3:1 ratio is viewed as fair by all parties, dunno.

 

I used to get hung up on the high cost of imported goods in Thailand, over time I've come to realise that I don't need most of them and many are just nice to have from time to time. I've just returned to Thailand following three months in the UK where I've had the first chance in almost twenty years to look closely at price comparisons between the two countries. The tea that I prefer costs pennies back in the UK, here it costs pounds, the solution is not to buy it and to buy Asian tea instead which is equally as good....similar examples abound on all fronts, mostly that's a state of mind rather than anything tangible although the cost of some medical supplies seems unwarranted.

 

The key question is, is Thailand a currency manipulator and the answer to that must surely be yes, if the criteria for being one is to export more than it imports and if the criteria also is to maintain export ratio's of 2:1 or greater with the major exporting countries! Given those things are true can Thailand really be blamed for being successful in developing an export led economy, after all, nobody forces other countries to buy their products nor to set up business here. And even if, in a worst-case scenario, Thailand is believed to be conducting underhand business as a result of that success, they are nothing more than a bit player in the global economy hence the impact on global trade is almost non-existent.....it's only expat Americans who miss their inexpensive nike's and steaks who think they are being cheated, everyone else understands that Thailand is playing by the rules that others have made for them.

 

 

 

 

 

[thailand49]

2 hours ago, simoh1490 said:

Firstly: 7/11 in Thailand is a franchise so it's not the 7/11 you know from the US, I , that 7/11 USA is making a very healthy profit from it's franchised operations in Thailand.

 

Secondly: you appear to look at trade as being the total picture, in reality trade is only a part of the picture since the US is effectively buying a relationship which gives them a presence in Thailand, a special relationship of sorts and that's worth money which is translated into trade concessions, in that respect perhaps even a 3:1 ratio is viewed as fair by all parties, dunno.

 

I used to get hung up on the high cost of imported goods in Thailand, over time I've come to realise that I don't need most of them and many are just nice to have from time to time. I've just returned to Thailand following three months in the UK where I've had the first chance in almost twenty years to look closely at price comparisons between the two countries. The tea that I prefer costs pennies back in the UK, here it costs pounds, the solution is not to buy it and to buy Asian tea instead which is equally as good....similar examples abound on all fronts, mostly that's a state of mind rather than anything tangible although the cost of some medical supplies seems unwarranted.

 

The key question is, is Thailand a currency manipulator and the answer to that must surely be yes, if the criteria for being one is to export more than it imports and if the criteria also is to maintain export ratio's of 2:1 or greater with the major exporting countries! Given those things are true can Thailand really be blamed for being successful in developing an export led economy, after all, nobody forces other countries to buy their products nor to set up business here. And even if, in a worst-case scenario, Thailand is believed to be conducting underhand business as a result of that success, they are nothing more than a bit player in the global economy hence the impact on global trade is almost non-existent.....it's only expat Americans who miss their inexpensive has gotten and steaks who think they are being cheated, everyone else understands that Thailand is playing by the rules that others have made for the

 

 

 

8

I think the topic has gotten off track a bit either you or me?

One the big picture? My reference or example of using 7/11 was Thailand I never refer it or compare it to U.S.

 

Two, I don't believe I'm looking at trade as a total picture although I use China as a reference my comments have always been in reference to Thailand.

 

Just because I'm negative as to the duty Thailand is placing on Western items doesn't mean I'm buying them. I've lived here for close to 15 years and rarely do I buy the Western products although I can afford it I pass the majority of the time unless I have an urge. As you noted it is in the mindset. Whenever I visit the States which is like twice a year I basically load up and that includes beef, pork and cheese.

 

The topic of currency has never been the major topic for me I've known Thailand as one for years whether they omit it or not like China. You can actually get a gauge whenever their leaders are interviewed regarding the currency. 

 

It doesn't matter if Thailand is a bit player or not it is all relative the fact that they are regardless of their size is the issue. You say no one forcing that is where you are so wrong! The high duty is one reason so many companies end up opening factory here particular the car sector, Toyota, Ford, and even Chevy for example that itself is to get around the large duty. You take BMW and Benz who recently want more into the Thai market doing so they open some factories.

 

Whether I look at the small or large picture, in the end, the added duty by the Thai government on a product the manufactural passes it on to the consumer. A clear example if the duty was in place or not as high it isn't rocket science that you would buy your English tea instead of Thai. Regardless of the fact whether it is American or Brit ( I sense some resentment from your first response you got something against Americans?) and what Trump is doing nevertheless Thai export economy is doing wonders especially their Rice because it is barely paying a tariff of 5% vs 35-40 percent for Western product and that includes Briton.

 

With the trade war with China, I know first hand since I have family members in China know the government is starting to ship their unfinished products to Thailand and have packaged as a Thai brand to avoid the tariff U.S. has imposed on Chinese products.

 

Good conversation as I noted will end here to agree to disagree.