Analysis: Loss of U.S. House leaves Republicans more tied to Trump than ever

[webfact]

Analysis: Loss of U.S. House leaves Republicans more tied to Trump than ever

By James Oliphant

 

A sign directs voters towards a polling place near the state capitol in Madison, Wisconsin, U.S. November 6, 2018. REUTERS/Nick Oxford

 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republicans' loss of control of the U.S. House of Representatives will leave the party with a more conservative congressional caucus that is even more bound to President Donald Trump and more united around his provocative rhetoric and hardline agenda.

 

Although moderate Republicans who remain in the House may view the result as an indictment of Trump's strategy of focusing relentlessly on illegal immigration in the final stretch of the campaign, they will be a small minority.

 

Major U.S. TV networks projected Democrats would take control of the House while Republicans would retain the majority in the Senate.

 

Many Republicans who lost their seats were moderates from suburban-heavy districts who tried to keep some distance from Trump and his rhetoric, but lost anyway. That leaves a shrunken core dominated by conservatives from rural areas whose constituents overwhelmingly support Trump.

 

In short, Trump will stay Trump. Although some Republicans may blame him for Tuesday's losses, they are unlikely to be emboldened to rebel, especially given that the party kept control of the Senate.

 

Over the past two years, the president has shown little inclination to change his slash-and-burn style or turn conciliatory. He knows that he remains without question the most popular figure in his party.

 

Now, Trump begins his run for re-election in earnest, where he will make every effort to galvanize his base of passionate supporters.

 

That means that even in the face of stronger Democratic opposition, Trump is likely to advocate for his "America First" agenda that prioritizes hot-button issues, such as illegal immigration and trade protectionism. This, in turn, will accelerate his dramatic reshaping of a party that for decades was defined by fiscal, social and national security conservatism.

 

Knowing that House Democrats will not approve funding for a wall along the U.S. border, for example, will not keep Trump from continuing to make it an issue. In fact, he may find it more politically effective to have House Democrats as a foil.

 

The surviving Republican members in the House, too, will have little interest in cooperating with the new Democratic majority, leaving Republican congressional power focused in the Senate and the government largely gridlocked.

 

“A Democratic House means that if the president wants to get things done, he’s going to have to work across the aisle," said Jason McGrath, a Democratic pollster in Chicago. "He hasn’t shown any inclination to do that, but it will be interesting to see if this is a moment he will want to govern rather than just make points.”

 

SUBURBAN SHIFT

The shift has long-term implications for Republicans in districts that flipped Democratic on Tuesday and gives Democrats an opportunity to build on gains in once-reliably Republican suburbs where education levels and incomes are above the national average - and where skepticism of Trump runs deep.

 

The party already faced challenges in trying to grow beyond its base of middle-class Trump supporters, white men, and evangelicals. It has lost ground among women, suburban voters, voters with college degrees, while showing little ability to win over young and minority voters.

 

That will almost certainly continue if a shrinking congressional caucus paves the way for greater fealty to Trump.

 

In the Senate, centrist Democrats from states that Trump won in 2016 such as Joe Donnelly in Indiana and Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota were replaced by conservative Republicans who may credit their victories to the president.

 

Moreover, Trump’s fiercest Republican critics in the Senate, Bob Corker and Jeff Flake, are retiring. So is Paul Ryan, the Republican speaker of the House who at times differed with the president’s tone, if not his policies.

 

All of it leaves Trump a more dominant force in the party than he was even two years ago. And Trump, who campaigned heavily in rural states, can point to those Senate wins as evidence he can still drive his voters to the polls.

 

LOW EXPECTATIONS

All year, Republicans have been clear-eyed about their potential losses in the House, and so likely will not view Tuesday's result as a warning sign the party needs to change its ways.

 

Historically, the party in power loses several seats during the first midterm election of a new president, particularly if his national job approval ratings are low.

 

Democrats lost 63 seats in 2010 with Barack Obama in the White House, handing control to the Republicans, who brought Obama’s agenda largely to a halt.

 

In the closing weeks of the election, Trump stoked fears over a caravan of migrants approaching the United States from Central America and warned of the threat from liberal “mobs” if Democrats won power, trying to stoke his base to the polls.

 

Several Republican candidates and advocacy groups such as the Congressional Leadership Fund joined in, concluding that the party’s economic message was not resonating. In two years, should economic growth slow, the party may not even have that argument.

 

With Congress expected to produce little in the way of meaningful legislation in coming months, Republican candidates in the next election cycle are likely to have few accomplishments to point to. A 2017 tax-cut law will be a distant memory.

 

Those Republican candidates who run for office with Trump at the top of the ticket will have a difficult time establishing their own political identities – and they may not want to, as U.S. presidents by and large win their second terms.

 

(Reporting by James Oliphant; Editing by Jason Szep and Tomasz Janowski)

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2018-11-07

[Tug]

Hope not hoping now they become country before party just dreaming probably 

[vinegarbase]

It didn't matter regardless. The incompetent morons in the Republican had a majority in the house and senate for 2 years and got nothing done at all. They had a chance to repeal Obamacare, repeal DACA, pass immigration law to finally get some real enforcement in the country, pass real tax reforms, but we got nothing. There is nothing but pure corruption in the halls of the congress and the senate. Trump is the only one that has really gotten anything good done. 

[Zack61]

You get the government you deserve. 

[Justin Side]

1 hour ago, vinegarbase said:

Trump is the only one that has really gotten anything good done. 

Oh dear. I cannot believe that you believe that.

But then again....

Edited November 7, 2018 by Justin Side

[Grouse]

I am so disappointed 

 

What does it take America?

 

How could you not repel this repellent POTOS?

 

I was expecting a mighty rebellion

 

Very sad!

 

Is it, just like the UK, that your population is being swamped by people who just don't understand?

 

????

[vinegarbase]

1 minute ago, Justin Side said:

I cannot believe that you believe that.

Believe it. You do realize that there are going to be people in the world that don't all believe the same as you do. Or should I be a group think leftist NPC? Sorry, can't do it. MAGA.

[Tug]

On the bright side now we can see his tax returns and check out that laundry for ruples lol yep we will see donald

[charmonman]

1 hour ago, vinegarbase said:

Believe it. You do realize that there are going to be people in the world that don't all believe the same as you do. Or should I be a group think leftist NPC? Sorry, can't do it. MAGA.

Personally, I can completely believe there are people in the world who are complete idiots. MAGA indeed. How about just governing the country without a racist, ignorant group think right wing ideology?

[FritsSikkink]

3 hours ago, vinegarbase said:

Believe it. You do realize that there are going to be people in the world that don't all believe the same as you do. Or should I be a group think leftist NPC? Sorry, can't do it. MAGA.

We already know that "My Attorney Got Arrested", and more will follow shortly.  

[thaibeachlovers]

 

16 hours ago, webfact said:

Many Republicans who lost their seats were moderates from suburban-heavy districts who tried to keep some distance from Trump and his rhetoric, but lost anyway.

More fool them, then. Trump IS the factor that gets GOP politicians elected.

Reminds me of when Al Gore distanced himself from Clinton, and lost, because he didn't understand that Clinton was popular, regardless of what he had done.

Actually, it's good that the loser GOP politicians are out of the way now, so Trump can lead a more unified party into the next election, without all the infighting of the past 2 years.

Losing the house isn't even a loss, as the Dems will probably revert to full on TDS, trying to get him impeached ( not going to happen given the Senate remains GOP ) etc and generally turning the voters off the Dems, which will give the GOP a working majority in 2 years time. It's not as though a GOP house was working with Trump anyway, and a Dem house in mega anti Trump mode is going to be very entertaining, as they will be unable to actually do much about it anyway. IMO, they'll get his tax records now and leak them, but that will make them look vindictive, and strengthen Trump's base.

Far as I can see, all they have gained is control of the committees, and they were generally a waste of time in the past 2 years anyway. Even a GOP house wouldn't fund the wall, so that's no different.

Regardless of the Dem's propaganda, they lost big time, as they didn't gain the senate, so Trump should be able to get at least another conservative onto the SCOTUS.

Also, Trump will be able to get a new AG approved by the senate, which would not have happened with a Dem majority senate. Hopefully, Sessions will be gone pronto, and Trump will get an AG that will make Mueller come up with something to justify his investigation, or be closed down ( I expect it to be closed down fairly soon after a new AG is appointed ). 

So, on to the next election and hopefully the Dems will be so OTT the voters will elect a large majority GOP congress, so things will really get done after 2020.

[thaibeachlovers]

7 hours ago, Grouse said:

I am so disappointed 

 

What does it take America?

 

How could you not repel this repellent POTOS?

 

I was expecting a mighty rebellion

 

Very sad!

 

Is it, just like the UK, that your population is being swamped by people who just don't understand?

 

????

Erm, it's called DEMOCRACY, and just because you don't like the result, does not invalidate it.

Warmonger Bush the younger was a far worse president, yet I don't remember the leftists coming out so OTT about him.

IMO, the reason the Dems did so poorly ( not gaining the senate was a major lose for them, and they should have won it easily ) is that they have nothing to offer the voters other than Trump hatred. If they have any actual policies, I missed them. I watched some of Warren's speech yesterday, and she had a lot of words and nothing of substance to offer. Seems all they have is words to offer.

 

BTW, the only "swamping" of the US is by the illegal immigrants that the Dems are so attached to. Trump voters are descendants of people that have been in the US for generations.

 

????

[quandow]

9 hours ago, vinegarbase said:

Trump is the only one that has really gotten anything good done. 

I am ABSOLUTELY NO FAN of the uncouth boor, but can't disagree with your statement. Stats show unemployment IS down, economic gains ARE being made, but the cost of his short-sighted approaches will cost us all in the long run. He has alienated America from all civilized countries and made her a global laughing stock. He is a bull in a china shop, and while he is making headway, he leaves a trail of broken glass in his wake.

[quandow]

20 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Trump voters are descendants of people that who have been in the US for generations.

And all of them VERY white, VERY WASP, VERY happy to keep people of color in their places (back of the bus, out picking cotton etc). Fortunately, their days are numbered as this election just showed. Sure, the Dems didn't win all they wanted to, but the fact that Cruz and Kemp (to name just two red politicians) won by such narrow victories indicates the rule of old white guys is coming to an end.

[thaibeachlovers]

28 minutes ago, quandow said:

And all of them VERY white, VERY WASP, VERY happy to keep people of color in their places (back of the bus, out picking cotton etc). Fortunately, their days are numbered as this election just showed. Sure, the Dems didn't win all they wanted to, but the fact that Cruz and Kemp (to name just two red politicians) won by such narrow victories indicates the rule of old white guys is coming to an end.

You might do well to educate yourself as to who actually rules the world, and it ain't governments.

By equating all Trump supporters to racists, you have apparently swallowed the propaganda put out by those that hate Trump, and his supporters.

BTW, I think machines pick cotton now.

[heybruce]

17 hours ago, vinegarbase said:

It didn't matter regardless. The incompetent morons in the Republican had a majority in the house and senate for 2 years and got nothing done at all. They had a chance to repeal Obamacare, repeal DACA, pass immigration law to finally get some real enforcement in the country, pass real tax reforms, but we got nothing. There is nothing but pure corruption in the halls of the congress and the senate. Trump is the only one that has really gotten anything good done. 

What you are saying is that Trump was unable to work with Congress when his own party controlled both the House and the Senate, but he's doing a good job?

 

Could you explain that a little better?

 

As far as Trump accomplishments, the only one's I recall are questionable judges, a trade war with most of the world (including our allies), more money for the rich, a larger budget deficit, and abandoned treaties (Trump, the great deal breaker).

[Becker]

9 minutes ago, heybruce said:

What you are saying is that Trump was unable to work with Congress when his own party controlled both the House and the Senate, but he's doing a good job?

 

Could you explain that a little better?

 

As far as Trump accomplishments, the only one's I recall are questionable judges, a trade war with most of the world (including our allies), more money for the rich, a larger budget deficit, and abandoned treaties (Trump, the great deal breaker).

And don't forget cozying up to dictators while alienating traditional and democratic allies. He really is despicable.

[heybruce]

11 minutes ago, Becker said:

And don't forget cozying up to dictators while alienating traditional and democratic allies. He really is despicable.

Also worth noting that he has yet to get Mexico to pay for a border wall.  That was his big campaign issue.

 

Oh, and let's not forget "Repeal and replace Obamacare".  He was surprised when he learned there wasn't a replacement bill waiting for his signature when he took office.

Edited November 8, 2018 by heybruce

[mikebike]

16 hours ago, Grouse said:

Is it, just like the UK, that your population is being swamped by people who just don't understand?

No. It is a result of gerrymandering, voter suppression and purging. USA is a dysfunctional democracy.