What will be the domino affect of these amended visa deposit requirements?

[inThailand]

Won't these changes to deposits needed for marriage or retirement visas have a huge domino affect? 

 

What will be affected? 

 

Will these be enough that they rescind these new policies? 

 

 

Possiblity affecting... 

 

Switching to tourist visas? Many will opt for a tourist visa instead? 

 

When tourist visas are no longer possible, becoming an overstayer and eventually being caught and deported and banned? Forced departure from LOS. 

 

Voluntarily moving to a new country, leaving behind gf, wife, kids, dogs or taking them with? 

 

With many expats leaving Thailand, a fire sale of houses, condos, cars, motorcycles, expat owned businesses are looming? 

 

More rental properties available, should mean lower rent prices for the remaining expats and even for tourists?

 

What about the slow business that already exists at many restaurants, bars, massage shops, go go bars, real estate companies, etc? Many will just close to serve a small customer base? Prompting even more girls to working online? 

 

If expats abuse tourist visas, will they become even harder to get and thus impacting tourists numbers as well? 

 

Less or more expat English teachers? 

 

Less beer sales means higher wholesale and retail prices, ie from the beer companies and at the bar? 

Same for falang imported food, less sales will result in higher prices? 

 

What else is a fallout from these visa changes?

 

Have they grossly underestimated the impact of these changes? 

[MikeN]

I think you have grossly overestimated the effect of a few disgruntled retiree expats leaving will have on the Thai economy ......

[inThailand]

12 minutes ago, MikeN said:

I think you have grossly overestimated the effect of a few disgruntled retiree expats leaving will have on the Thai economy ......

Please re-read the post, it's primarily about the affect on expats, their families, their assets and their businesses. 

 

Agreed, litte impact on the Thai economy, but how much on the expat community? 

[MikeN]

And i think you are overestimating the number who will leave, and the miniscule effect of those that do.

With many expats leaving Thailand,   

If even as many as 10% of expats leave, (and it will not be anywhere near that !) do you think that is going to have an effect on the real estate market ?

Do you think the retirees you expect to leave drink so much that the bars and breweries will go broke ?

Perhaps there might be some very localised effect in places like pattaya, where a few businesses that are borderline now might go under, but over the whole country it will be negligible.

35million tourists account for around 15% of Thai GDP, or 0.4% per million tourists. How much effect do you think a few cheap charlie expats leaving would have on the GDP ?

It would not even be noticeable in the overall figures....there will not be a domino effect.

 

[impulse]

These changes simply force expats to confirm what they've already told immigration...  That they have 400K to their names (or income...).

 

They're not nearly as drastic as the changes since 2014 that completely eliminated the monthly visa runs and the perpetual ED visas.  Other than an Elite visa, there were huge numbers of long stay expats that could no longer qualify to stay even though there was no change in their finances.  I don't see that happening this time when all they're asking is to verify what we've already told them.

 

I'm forecasting a lot of harumphing, some money begrudgingly transferred from higher yielding accounts elsewhere, maybe some assets sold off to generate some cash.  Then there will be very little long term change.  The sky won't fall, apartments will still be overbuilt, beer will still flow, and expats will find something else to moan about.

 

[ukrules]

Based on what I've read here many married people over the age of 50 have in the past been encouraged to go for retirement extensions instead of an extension based on marriage and I believe plenty of people did that because it was 'less hassle' at the time.

 

There are lots of stories on this forum about people who have been sent away to take additional photos in front of the house, etc when going for an extension based on marriage.

 

This trend will be immediately reversed for a lot of people as it's now more hassle to go the retirement route, maybe not much more hassle but it's there.

 

I expect many people who are both married and over 50 and currently using retirement extensions will now convert over to extensions of stay based on being married to a Thai.

 

That's a lot of extra work for the immigration department, I hope they're prepared for it.

[ukrules]

2 hours ago, inThailand said:

Won't these changes to deposits needed for marriage or retirement visas

The change only affects retirement visas.

[inThailand]

2 hours ago, MikeN said:

And i think you are overestimating the number who will leave, and the miniscule effect of those that do.

With many expats leaving Thailand,   

If even as many as 10% of expats leave, (and it will not be anywhere near that !) do you think that is going to have an effect on the real estate market ?

Do you think the retirees you expect to leave drink so much that the bars and breweries will go broke ?

Perhaps there might be some very localised effect in places like pattaya, where a few businesses that are borderline now might go under, but over the whole country it will be negligible.

35million tourists account for around 15% of Thai GDP, or 0.4% per million tourists. How much effect do you think a few cheap charlie expats leaving would have on the GDP ?

It would not even be noticeable in the overall figures....there will not be a domino effect.

 

What percent of expats do their visa by.. 

 

Monthly income? 

 

Thai Bank deposit? 

 

Combo of monthly & bank? 

 

Agent assisted deposit? 

[namatjira]

These changes only effect retirement visas......

a small caution for the marriage visa recipients,

dont hold your breathe........you may well be lucky last.

one things for sure.....you will not be overlooked.

[observer90210]

The effect will be that all the dominos will fall into neighbouring Vietnam, Cambodia or Laos...✈️????

[steve187]

4 hours ago, inThailand said:

Won't these changes to deposits needed for marriage or retirement visas

what changes to 'married to Thai' extension of stay

[ocddave]

There will be an exodus of Retirees, those left will prop up the banks that will ensue give the money away in questionable loans to Thai's, thus propping up the Thai economy. My guess is the banks will also start using our guaranteed money to buy greenbacks at a discount, while we buy baht at a future loss to us. Great scheme, but may come back to bite them in the end.

[ubonjoe]

I see no reason for this topic. Just pure speculation and not completely related to visas.

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