‘Overshooting’ baht raises fears of sluggish growth

[BritManToo]

2 hours ago, Father Fintan Stack said:

My mate's neighbour just died on St. 172 in PP. Heart attack apparently although he was banging hookers and taking ice late in his 50's.

 

IMO Cambo is not a place for a happy retirement as health care is very limited, it's dirty, far more crime than Thailand, the expats are generally much lower quality

Yes, you're talking about me and my mates, although we prefer excess hookers booze and marijuana in out 60s.

Also admit to being 'lower quality', no educated hiso, white Chinese wife for me, dark skinned bar girls are fine IMHO.

But good (and cheap) Indian restaurants on every corner does make me feel more at home there.

I don't care about health care either, no insurance, I'll go when I'm called.

Edited February 4, 2019 by BritManToo

[BritManToo]

8 hours ago, leeneeds said:

one dollar us 

                   = Laos kip = 8,565

                   =Cam Riel = 4,012

                   = Viet Dong =23,191

                   = Myan Kyat 1,506

Just to point out Cambodia uses USD for everything except transactions below $1.

No point in worrying about Cambodian Riel, because that currency is not longer real (it's $$$$s).

Even the banks and ATMs hand out USD.

Edited February 4, 2019 by BritManToo

[tlandtday]

7 hours ago, oldhippy said:

1/ I used to be a macro economics lecturer, so maybe I know what I am talking about.

2/ I have no Thai work permit, so I can not teach you the basics of macro economics

3/ Please tell me what you think "GDP" means. In your own words, not paste copy from wiki. I am convinced that by answering that question, you will realise your error.

4/ yes there are lots of others making the same mistake, I don't blame you

 

Sorry but from what we have all seen lately with economists they are about as accurate as weathermen at best lol.

[Bangkokazy]

7 hours ago, Fex Bluse said:

I see you have accepted defeat. Thanks. 

 Be impossible for (someone) to understand.

‘this line of reasoning defeats me, I must confess’

[JackGats]

Grow less than 4%? And that's bad? Most modern economies are glad when they grow 2%.

[DJ54]

Wow I’m just on the first page and the emails are flying....easy fellas it’s just life 

[DrTuner]

5 hours ago, NCC1701A said:

Ring ring:

 

"Hello, big boss of Thai banks."

"Yes I am super big boss of Thailand and I am buying a house in the South of France. Need strong baht."

"But that might cause of recession!"

"I don't care. No smog in Monaco."

Yup, the strong baht is good for the überrich Thais to get their cash out of Thailand before letting it dip. Rinse & repeat and you've got a nice little earner.

[Stargeezr]

The Thai baht is vastly inflated. Everyone knows it. What can we do about it, quit coming to Thailand, or squat. Our choice.. Some have made that choice already. I have a friend who flew to Vietnam, spent a month, came to Thailand to say hi to friends, and back to Vietnam. He says he has saved money and has had a great vacation. I will visit other Asian countries to see for myself, the advantages and disadvantages. Maybe it is bye bye Thailand for me as well.

Geezer

[whimsicalmike]

lots of talk about the strength of the Baht

My Q is how is the Baht value determined. If its a floating currency the markets find a level between in and out flows of currency.

I have no idea but i get the impression it is set by the Junta or their lacky department. If the junta set it then any discussion about its value is basically irrelevant. The value is what the Junta want.  If they are shoveling big sums out then they want the baht high and don't really care about the economy. Maybe they are maximizing their offshore holdings before the erection and levels will calm down after that. 

I have no idea but am curious

Edited February 4, 2019 by whimsicalmike

[Accidental Tourist]

I still remember the time before the Thailand finance crisis in 1997. Thai baht was then 25 thb to 1 usd for a long time. Many condominiums where empty and housing for "Farangs"was underdeveloped.

And then the finance crisis hit 28 - 38 - 42 and 61 thb for 1 usd in January 1998. Condominium sales to foreigners went sky high when finally the baht settled for 35 thb. Live was cheap then in Thailand and Pattaya, Phuket and Hua Hin developed. We the long time expats have all survived this and will keep going on.

Live have to go on and prices increased for food for Thai and Farangs alike, now in par with many European country's (but keep in mind the salary differences for the Thai locals). So the burden is more for the Thais, then us "better off" Farangs.

Tourist will come they came then and coming in much bigger numbers now, as despite all the fuss LOS is still a very affordable tourist destination, especially for Asian country's.  

[tlandtday]

1 hour ago, Stargrazer9889 said:

The Thai baht is vastly inflated. Everyone knows it. What can we do about it, quit coming to Thailand, or squat. Our choice.. Some have made that choice already. I have a friend who flew to Vietnam, spent a month, came to Thailand to say hi to friends, and back to Vietnam. He says he has saved money and has had a great vacation. I will visit other Asian countries to see for myself, the advantages and disadvantages. Maybe it is bye bye Thailand for me as well.

Geezer

I will travel to Vietnam oncea gain this year to further check it out.  I have been impressed with it in the past.  Last year on the plane a Vietnamese man walked up to me on deboarding and shook my hand and thanked me for coming to his country.  I have been coming here on and off for 15 years and have never seen anything remotely close to this lol.

[Khaeng Mak]

In the past a much repeated mantra among posters here on this forum was that the baht was strengthening because it is pegged to the Greenback.

 

However last week the baht kept moving up while the Greenback correctly against other currencies.

 

So are we in a new paradigm now? And if yes, why?

 

Or is the "pegged with the USD" mantra just BS?

[Psimbo]

11 hours ago, alanrchase said:

It will all sort itself out once all the TV posters move to Cambodia due to new immigration rules.

Only a third of those here and 50% on Facebook though. ????

[Psimbo]

10 hours ago, carstenp said:

Thailand welcomed some 35 million foreign tourists in 2017, bringing in 1.8 trillion baht in revenue. The tourism industry has played a significant role over the past several years in driving the economy economy, creating jobs and distributing income to locals. Including domestic tourism, the sector generated as much as 2.76 trillion baht, representing about 20% of GDP in 2017.
Source: Tourism and Sports Minister Weerasak Kowsurat

Tourism will continue to be a powerful driver for economic growth this year, expected to generate 2.21 trillion baht in income from 41.1 million international arrivals.



 

You were doing so well up to this point.  ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

 

[5633572526]

On 2/4/2019 at 5:59 AM, oldhippy said:

1/ I used to be a macro economics lecturer, so maybe I know what I am talking about.

2/ I have no Thai work permit, so I can not teach you the basics of macro economics

3/ Please tell me what you think "GDP" means. In your own words, not paste copy from wiki. I am convinced that by answering that question, you will realise your error.

4/ yes there are lots of others making the same mistake, I don't blame you

 

Actually I think you are a BSer who has smoked too much marijuana 

[jayceenik]

[oldhippy]

Imagine that the following amounts are correct for the tourism sector:

A (the original producer) sells goods/services to B for 100.

B (wholesaler) sells these same g/s to C for 120.

C (hotel) sells these same g/s to the tourists for 150.

 

Total sales of the tourist sector = 100 +120 + 150 = 370

Contribution of the tourist sector to GDP = 150

 

So according to common misunderstanding, the tourist sector contributes 370 : 150 = 247% of GDP to the GDP that it generates.

 

Comparing sales to GDP may be usefull for international comparisons, or evolution in time. But turnover is not the same as GDP.

Sales, turnover can be compared to GDP, but they are not part of GDP.

[oldhippy]

I guess all this goes way over the head of some posters. Calling people trolls, or ridiculing them is more their style.

 

[Naam]

On 2/4/2019 at 6:55 PM, Khaeng Mak said:

In the past a much repeated mantra among posters here on this forum was that the baht was strengthening because it is pegged to the Greenback.

 

However last week the baht kept moving up while the Greenback correctly against other currencies.

 

So are we in a new paradigm now? And if yes, why?

 

Or is the "pegged with the USD" mantra just BS?

since mid 1997 that "mantra" is pure refined BS². look at the USD/THB chart.

 

 

[jabis]

10 minutes ago, Naam said:

since mid 1997 that "mantra" is pure refined BS². look at the USD/THB chart.

 

 

Yep it's on a basket of currencies based on the major trading partners of the Kingdom - tho USD is still on more than a prevalent percentage, which makes the basket seem to be teflon, as the major currency dipped quite a bit, the secondaries as well, but THB holds stronger than nearby currencies holding equal baskets. 

Edited February 7, 2019 by jabis

[boonrawdcnx]

People here keep talking about tourism but forget that exports account for approx. 2 thirds of Thailands GDP - this combined with tourism and capital inflow into short term bonds creates the demand for and hence a strong Baht.

Besides people’s arguments that Thailand’s exports will be hit by the strong Baht the numbers tell a different story.

While exports declined in December 2018 for the first time especially to China their number 1 trading partner by 7% ( but increased by 0.6 % to the US in the same period and 12% during November 2018 - so much for making America strong again ! ) - the year 2018 still showed an export increase of almost 7%.

August 2018 showed an all time high in Thai exports and exports are forecast to grow by at least 4 % - some estimates are even 8 % ( the government’s !) in 2019.

So unless something really unexpected is happening the strong Baht is here to stay.




Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[boonrawdcnx]

Doesn't matter? Ha! Let me give you a clue. It will also effect exports. 

 It does not have the impact it would have in other countries and I tell you why.

 

Thailand’s exports are mostly electronics, cars, machinery and equipment, food stuff and farm products.

 

The largest part of Thais especially farmers and factory workers are poor and payed peanuts.

The money made in exports is usually made by the owners and middle man and they have huge bargaining power and a huge profit margin to play with.

 

Farmers are paid peanuts for their products so the middle men can easily absorb let’s say a 5% Baht appreciation. Factories for electronics and in the car industry, machinery, equipment are mostly produced in special economic zones at special conditions using cheap labor and can easily absorb that Baht appreciation - might hurt profits a bit but nothing to really worry about as imports for components get cheaper with a stronger Baht.

 

Exports have been growing in 2018 and forecast still shows growth for 2019 - so no - so far the strong Baht has not much impact on exports.

For SME exporters it very likely means less profits it depends on their products and if they can re-negotiate with their suppliers to lower their costs.

 

China’s economic slowdown as their number 1 trading partner will of course have an impact on the long run but that has nothing to do with the strong Baht.

 

Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

 

 

[oldhippy]

4 hours ago, boonrawdcnx said:

People here keep talking about tourism but forget that exports account for approx. 2 thirds of Thailands GDP - this combined with tourism and capital inflow into short term bonds creates the demand for and hence a strong Baht.

Besides people’s arguments that Thailand’s exports will be hit by the strong Baht the numbers tell a different story.

While exports declined in December 2018 for the first time especially to China their number 1 trading partner by 7% ( but increased by 0.6 % to the US in the same period and 12% during November 2018 - so much for making America strong again ! ) - the year 2018 still showed an export increase of almost 7%.

August 2018 showed an all time high in Thai exports and exports are forecast to grow by at least 4 % - some estimates are even 8 % ( the government’s !) in 2019.

So unless something really unexpected is happening the strong Baht is here to stay.




Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

"exports account for 2 thirds of the GDP".

Add to that the 17% of tourism.

That adds up to 83%.

So the Thai purely internal economy, including government and production for Thai consumption accounts for only 17% of GDP?

Maybe reread my last 2 posts 110 1nd 111.

 

Edited February 7, 2019 by oldhippy

[boonrawdcnx]

"exports account for 2 thirds of the GDP".
Add to that the 17% of tourism.
That adds up to 83%.
So the Thai purely internal economy, including government and production for Thai consumption accounts for only 17% of GDP?
Maybe reread my last 2 posts 110 1nd 111.
 

Well 65 % is roughly 2/3 isn’t it ?








Sent from my iPhone using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[oldhippy]

YES, you can say that exports or tourism or whatever other sector of the economy amounts to X percent AGAINST the amount of the GDP.

This can be very usefull for international comparisons or to study evolution in time.

 

NO, you can not say that exports or tourism or whatever other sector of the economy amounts to the same X percent OF the amount of the GDP.

 

One is turnover, sales, the other is added value.

 

Conclusion: Foreign tourism or exports are important to GDP, but not as important to GDP as most people (including economists and politicians) think it is.

 

By the way: you could also say that IMPORTS are a certain % AGAINST GDP.........

Where clearly imports are 0% OF GDP.

 

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS

I can only assume that the economists of the worldbank understand their own statistics, and -maybe?- realise that their statistics will be misunderstood by many.

[Naam]

Quote

Khaeng Mak said:

In the past a much repeated mantra among posters here on this forum was that the baht was strengthening because it is pegged to the Greenback.

 

 

12 hours ago, Naam said:

since mid 1997 that "mantra" is pure refined BS². look at the USD/THB chart.

 

 

and i forgot to mention that this is not the only "mantra among posters here on this forum" which is BS² if not BS³ when the comments pertain to finance in general and especially exchange rates. oh well... 

[RobbyXNorway]

Ok, so here is the story that I have heard. And I have heard this from a few sources.

 

In the 1990s Thailand took on a loan from China nominated in US Dollars. The loan was 150 billion USD. That loan is to be repaid in the near future. Hence it is in Thailands interest to have a strong currency towards the USD. And it is also likely the reason why Thailand has accumulated the foreign reserves.

 

From what I have understood this loan is "off the books".

 

Conspiracy theory? Perhaps, but it plays well with what we are seeing now with the exceptionaly strong baht. Which is damaging towards tourism and export-industry.

[oldhippy]

On 2/4/2019 at 12:16 PM, Psimbo said:

Including domestic tourism, the sector generated as much as 2.76 trillion baht, representing about 20% of GDP in 2017.

Psimbo is talking about tourism >>>>>>> 20% 0f GDP.

 

On 2/7/2019 at 8:26 AM, boonrawdcnx said:

Well 65 % is roughly 2/3 isn’t it ?

Boonrawdcnx is talking about exports >>>>>>> 65% of GDP

 

The worldbank is talking about imports >>>>>>>>>>54% 0f GDP

Thailand (Source https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS

54.63

 

I guess we better stop counting now, since we already have 140% of GDP, or are education, agriculture. government etc perhaps negative contributors to GDP?

 

Maybe, just maybe, my posts do make sense (I tried to keep it real simple in several posts on page 8), and maybe I am not a troll or BS artist after all, maybe I know what I am talking about.

 

And to all tourists and expats and importers of Thai products: we are - by far - not as important to the Thai economy as we like to think, basing ourselves on macro economic data that we do not understand.

 

[oldhippy]

Has anybody done their homework yet? (just a friendly reminder from your teacher).