Baht's strength reflects robust Thai economic fundamentals - Deputy PM

[mfd101]

Sigh. There are conspiracies everywhere. I just don't know which way to turn!

[bkk6060]

1 hour ago, Time Traveller said:

It's funny that people like you believe that. So, let me give you a tip about the "elite".

They don't care about the exchange rate. That's what poor people do.

 

Nothing unusual about the strong Baht. It just reflects Thailand's current economic situation.

Yes and anyone with economic sense will structure their financial portfolios for inflation or fluctuations in currency.

Be prepared. I

am sure everyone understands this....

 

Edited February 26, 2019 by bkk6060

[lipflipper]

When the exports of a country continue to go down the toilet, when those in charge of exports beg the Bank of Thailand to reign in the baht, when those pleas are constantly rebuffed you know that the Baht is being manipulated to benefit a select few. TIT and if you are an average Thai you don't count. Money talks, the rest walk.

Sent from my CMR-AL19 using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Artisi]

3 hours ago, Chassa said:

If the Baht is so strong how come most imported food prices have gone up? Food from the UK should be as cheap as hell!

gouging by the importers and resellers, but probably unsustainable as prices increase for imported goods so does demand (well in my case it does - I refuse to be ripped off). Have seen some items in places like Lotus increase by 10 -15% when in fact they should be falling by this amount.

[Eric Loh]

Central banks manipulating their currencies downward to gain export competitiveness. Sound a simple strategy. If every central banks can do that, it really re-set the new level and a race to the bottom. Maybe there are other fundamentals in play to determine currency rates. ???? 

[sungod]

4 hours ago, zoza said:

      I have never got my head around when they were firing rocket propelled grenades at the airport, and the Baht did not move.

     

     

And countless coups. I asked the same question to a foreign economist who said despite all the political shenanigans, financially little changes in Thailand regardless who is feeding at the trough thus  making it attractive for its financial stability. Look at the amount of MNCs in Bangkok.

[Sydebolle]

1997 is in a remake process. The high Baht cannot be justified with high exports (I know of lots of European buyers who switched away from Thailand for cheaper sources). The Chinese spend 20% of what the average tourist of alien origin spent 15 years ago; most of that money is spent in China and stays in China = zero dollar tourism. 

Having a high Baht serves all those who want to buy Dollars at, say, THB 30 - wait for the nose dive and then bring back the Dollar and sell it for, say THB 56. So happened 20+ years ago. There is no other reason as imported products did not get cheaper - contrary, the prices went up. Go figure! 

The writing is, once more again, on the wall! 

[maxcorrigan]

3 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Profiteering !

Exactly just generating a lot of wind!????

[RichardColeman]

Can't see the baht weakening until the junta is out and a real government in place. At  which point any manipulation will stop, baht will fall the good old army boys will be back claiming Thailand was economically better under them 

[Ulic]

Nothing to do with economic fundamentals and everything to do with the size of the foreign currency account surplus due to tourism. Foreign tourists bring foreign currency. Domestic tourists just move domestic currency around the country. In EU/Western countries 80%-90% of tourism is domestic bringing in little foreign currency (but stopping the domestic currency from possibly leaving the country) in Thailand 90% of tourism is foreign bringing in large amounts of foreign currency driving up the foreign currency account balance and the baht upward. Even with exports, a large part of the production costs are for imported raw materials, fuel/fertilizers needed to manufacture the products. So while exports do help increase the foreign currency account balance it does not increase the foreign currency account balance as much as tourism. 

[marcusarelus]

44 minutes ago, Ulic said:

Nothing to do with economic fundamentals and everything to do with the size of the foreign currency account surplus due to tourism. Foreign tourists bring foreign currency. Domestic tourists just move domestic currency around the country. In EU/Western countries 80%-90% of tourism is domestic bringing in little foreign currency (but stopping the domestic currency from possibly leaving the country) in Thailand 90% of tourism is foreign bringing in large amounts of foreign currency driving up the foreign currency account balance and the baht upward. Even with exports, a large part of the production costs are for imported raw materials, fuel/fertilizers needed to manufacture the products. So while exports do help increase the foreign currency account balance it does not increase the foreign currency account balance as much as tourism. 

Is tourism part of the Thai economy?  Of course it is.  For the rest please list the total amount of imports vs exports in Thailand in 2018.  http://www2.bot.or.th/statistics/BOTWEBSTAT.aspx?reportID=643&language=ENG
 

[pattayadgw]

The bahts being manipulated just like the ownership of the million baht +++ watch collection :))) 

[Skeptic7]

Off the back of next to nothing labor costs. Great economy...strong currency...zero unemployment...record tourism...blah blah blah  =  SLAVE LABOR WAGES 

[nasa123]

The last 4 years, this government has borrowed almost 816,808,123 million dollar from the Norwegian pension fund, and then 2018 is not yet counting.  https://www.nbim.no/en/the-fund/holdings/holdings-as-at-31.12.2017/?fullsize=true                                       https://www.nbim.no/en/                        

Edited February 26, 2019 by nasa123

[marcusarelus]

2 hours ago, pattayadgw said:

The bahts being manipulated just like the ownership of the million baht +++ watch collection :))) 

Who is manipulating it?  If you are rich you would want the baht to go down not up so you could export more goods and get more tourists in your hotels.  Who is manipulating the baht and how are they doing it?  How much would one have to buy to make a movement of 5%?  If you can't answer you don't know what you are talking about. 

[Chippy151]

I've asked Thai people quite often how the economy has been in the last 5 years. Mostly business owners with nothing to do with tourism.

Still waititing for a positive respose.

Usually a smile or a laugh and the answer is either "not good or very bad".

[nasa123]

24 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

Who is manipulating it?  If you are rich you would want the baht to go down not up so you could export more goods and get more tourists in your hotels.  Who is manipulating the baht and how are they doing it?  How much would one have to buy to make a movement of 5%?  If you can't answer you don't know what you are talking about. 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/india-thailand-risk-fx-manipulator-watchlist-as-reserves-swell

[sitanonchai]

or you are a hiso in the army and you want some more bugs for your money that you want to send abroad before the downfall.

[marcusarelus]

50 minutes ago, Chippy151 said:

I've asked Thai people quite often how the economy has been in the last 5 years. Mostly business owners with nothing to do with tourism.

Still waititing for a positive respose.

Usually a smile or a laugh and the answer is either "not good or very bad".

Proves you know a lot of losers - nothing else.  Try the more traditional forms of measuring an economy if you want accurate information.  My wife is a part of a large multinational manufacturing company who are hiring more people this year than the previous 4 years.  She is not a loser. 

[marcusarelus]

48 minutes ago, nasa123 said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/india-thailand-risk-fx-manipulator-watchlist-as-reserves-swell

You do realize your link is manipulation to reduce the value of the baht not increase as the xenophobic posters on this thread are implying?

[zydeco]

18 hours ago, webfact said:

"But the central bank can't intervene too much at a time of a weak dollar. It's already making a loss," he said.

This is it. And Trump has repeatedly said he is a weak dollar guy. If there is one person driving expats on the margin to ruin, it is Donald J. Trump.

[mehrdad]

13 hours ago, Chassa said:

If the Baht is so strong how come most imported food prices have gone up? Food from the UK should be as cheap as hell!

And oil prices!

[Chippy151]

4 hours ago, marcusarelus said:

Proves you know a lot of losers - nothing else.  Try the more traditional forms of measuring an economy if you want accurate information.  My wife is a part of a large multinational manufacturing company who are hiring more people this year than the previous 4 years.  She is not a loser. 

I certainly didn't ask any losers. A couple of them employ more than a hundred people. They just gave an honest answer. Why wouldn't they?

[marcusarelus]

4 hours ago, Chippy151 said:

I certainly didn't ask any losers. A couple of them employ more than a hundred people. They just gave an honest answer. Why wouldn't they?

It is why anecdotal evidence is useless in evaluating economies.  My wife's company is doing better today than 10 years ago.  So?  She is a success and the people you asked aren't.  Try and google financial indicators.  Or something more accurate than your or my local knowledge. 

[SmartyMarty]

BOT is buying up all the baht to keep the currency high. 

[Chippy151]

40 minutes ago, marcusarelus said:

It is why anecdotal evidence is useless in evaluating economies.  My wife's company is doing better today than 10 years ago.  So?  She is a success and the people you asked aren't.  Try and google financial indicators.  Or something more accurate than your or my local knowledge. 

I asked factory owners about the state of the Thai economy not their own businesses. You asked your wife.

It's not about winners or losers, successes or failure. I will repeat myself. Nobody I have ever asked has said the Thai economy is doing well. That's how I know.

Reading and believing government statistics and Watching Prayut on Friday evenings is not what I do.

[Snow Leopard]

On 2/26/2019 at 4:23 AM, ChrisY1 said:

Exports down....businesses failing...but the elite love the baht being high.

They can buy their travel cash a lot cheaper now!

Exactly. What would this guy know anyway? I am sure he studied economics at one of the top Universities. 

[WeekendRaider]

30 minutes ago, Snow Leopard said:

Exactly. What would this guy know anyway? I am sure he studied economics at one of the top Universities. 

honestly, this isn't academic stuff but I agree with your sentiment.  and the Baht is not overvalued.  it was in the high 20's against the dollar before the 1997 crisis and since... hey!.... the US is running bigger twin deficits than... even with the shale gas thing.  and Thailand??? still running surpluses in it's current account.  expats that want to be long term and have fx concerns need to be hedged with local holdings as much as they can muster.

Edited February 27, 2019 by WeekendRaider

[Snow Leopard]

5 minutes ago, WeekendRaider said:

honestly, this isn't academic stuff but I agree with your sentiment.  and the Baht is not overvalued.  it was in the high 20's against the dollar before the 1997 crisis and since... hey!.... the US is running bigger twin deficits than... even with the shale gas thing.  and Thailand??? still running surpluses in it's current account.  expats that want to be long term and have fx concerns need to be hedged with local holdings as much as they can muster.

I hear what you are saying but I think the Baht/$ is probably reaching equilibrium naturally. It could actually go the other way under a civil government. It all depends on how fiscally savvy they want to be. They might also actively try to devalue it as well. A trade-off between the farmers and the middle class.