How to win votes in rural Thailand? Reform the lottery  

By Peerasit Kamnuansilpa  
Special to The Nation

 

 

Many Thais will always play the lottery in the hope of obtaining quick cash, even though it is common knowledge that winning is extremely unlikely.

 

One of the earliest high-profile junta actions was to reform the government lottery system. However, after five years of military rule, gamblers have switched back to the underground lottery, showing much more must be done to make the government lottery efficient and equitable. 

 

In 2014, when the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) came to power, it promised to tackle the problem of overpriced government lottery tickets.

 

Yet after initial fanfare surrounding the re-organisation of lottery ticket distribution, little has been achieved to control the prices of the government-run lottery or to curtail abuses of its underground counterpart. Limited intervention by the NCPO has produced few results from the perspective of lottery ticket buyers. 

 

It is common to see a set of 15 lottery tickets with the same “lucky” number sold in booklets at prices of Bt2,500 to Bt3,000, a set of 10 at Bt1,200 to Bt1,500, and a set of two to five tickets at Bt100 per ticket. Few single lottery tickets are available at the face value of Bt80.

 

One reason why single tickets are hard to find is that syndicates are still controlling distribution, which makes it difficult for small vendors, most of whom are from rural areas, to secure a small number of tickets.

 

Instead of selling directly to individual customers, most of those who succeed in the fierce competition for a bulk number of tickets, 1,000 or so, prefer to sell theirs at a marginal profit to business syndicates. 

 

The syndicates bundle the tickets into sets with the same numbers and sell them to the vendors, who then offer them directly to consumers at exorbitant prices. The real winners of the government lottery are thus those involved in printing and marketing.

 

The losers are the customers. 

 

To investigate the reality, in November 2018 Khon Kaen University conducted a survey in rural Kalasin. The study found a lower demand for government lottery tickets than for the underground lottery. 

 

Underground lottery winning

 

One explanation is that most rural residents are from socio-economically depressed groups who cannot afford to enter the government lottery,  which can cost as much as 38 per cent of their monthly income for the two monthly draws. More tickets can be bought for the same sum on the underground lottery. 

 

The other explanation is that the marketing strategies of the underground lottery are part of daily village life. The sellers are almost always fellow villagers who reach out to potential buyers. Compared to the government lottery, participating in the underground lottery is effortless.

 

Moreover, the buyers can select their favourite numbers, which is not always possible with the government lottery. Also, underground tickets can be sold on a “buy now, pay later” basis, provided the payment is made before the next draw. 

 

‘Tax’ on the poor 

 

The majority of surveyed villagers were poor. These rural citizens stated that their economic conditions are worse than before the coup. Amid these economic hardships, the lottery provides a ray of hope that they could win cash to help support their families.

 

Those hopes have grown in tandem with the current economic downturn, meaning they now buy more underground lottery tickets than ever. The Bt500 cash handout to low-income earners under the government welfare programme often simply provides additional cash for playing the underground lottery.

 

In the eyes of the underground lottery operators, the villagers’ creditworthiness has simply been improved by the welfare programme. They see it as a guarantee that customers will have sufficient money to pay their gambling debts before the next draw. 

 

Asked about their problems in the playing the underground lottery, the villagers complained operators often halve the pay-out rate when many people have the same winning number.

 

To prevent such abuses, they would like the government to revive two- and three-digit lotteries, similar to those operated under Thaksin Shinawatra’s administration. Respondents also said that proceeds from the government lottery should go to community improvement programmes, education scholarships for rural children, and the wellbeing of the poor. 

 

These policy recommendations have both economic and political implications. An estimated 65 per cent of rural adults regularly play the underground lottery. On average, respondents spent Bt1,300, or 12.5 per cent of their income on the underground lottery’s two monthly draws.

 

This is twice as much as the amount currently spent on the government lottery. Estimated nationwide spending on the underground lottery is nearly Bt166 billion per year, equivalent to 1.2 per cent of Thailand’s GDP in 2017.

 

While not all of that money can be channelled to GDP growth, it seems obvious that creating an accessible, affordable and transparent government-run lottery would stimulate economic growth. 

 

From the political perspective, the approximately 20 million people who participate in the underground lottery is almost three times higher than the number of farmers nationally, indicating its popularity.

 

Reforming the government lottery so that it truly replaces the underground lottery, while returning the proceeds to the poor and the needy, will help any political party win votes and would also lead to more fairness for all.

 

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/opinion/30365196

 

-- © Copyright The Nation 2019-03-05

of  course  why not  just do some hard work and stop expecting a get rich quick scheme to work............like  most in Thailand do

Why try so hard? the 'old way' always worked, a 100 baht a person to put the right ticket at the ballots and a 1000 baht to the organisers.. worked like a charm for many years, why fix something that's it ain't broken...

12 minutes ago, ezzra said:

Why try so hard? the 'old way' always worked, a 100 baht a person to put the right ticket at the ballots and a 1000 baht to the organisers.. worked like a charm for many years, why fix something that's it ain't broken...

Yep, that's how it works where I live.  Take money from whoever is handing it out and vote for the person that gave you the most.  That's exactly what my wife did and I'm not sure whether she voted for the one that gave her the most money or just whoever she wanted.She came home one day with 20000 baht in 100 baht notes and said that she was holding it for the Puyai as he didn't want to be seen with all that small cash.

Edited March 4, 20197 yr by wayned

Mean while in the USA.   ????

 

Winner of $1.5 billion Mega Millions jackpot has come forward in South Carolina.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/03/04/winner-of-mega-millions-jackpot-collects-prize/3060263002/

   

 

The Junta has been very busy with the lottery tickets...so after 5 years the prices are up again??  ????

They seem very reluctant to change it to a modern style lottery system, probably for two reasons: the lottery salespeople would lose their jobs and there's probably pressure form the influential persons who run the underground lotteries to keep it as it is; they wouldn't be able to complete with the chance, albeit slim, for someone to win 100s of millions of baht. 

 

 

 

 

Must be the worst value lottery in the world as well as the most inconvenient to play. If you want certain numbers you have to go out hunting for them, unless you play the illegal lottery which is a huge business as well but at least you can pick your numbers. One day you will be able to go into 7/11, pick your numbers and walk out with the printed off ticket, one day Thailand will catch up.

4 hours ago, wayned said:

Yep, that's how it works where I live.  Take money from whoever is handing it out and vote for the person that gave you the most.  That's exactly what my wife did and I'm not sure whether she voted for the one that gave her the most money or just whoever she wanted.She came home one day with 20000 baht in 100 baht notes and said that she was holding it for the Puyai as he didn't want to be seen with all that small cash.

 

"and vote for the person that gave you the most.  That's exactly what my wife did and I'm not sure whether she voted for the one that gave her the most money"

 

Sorry, what exactly did your wife do?

It must be one of the biggest rip offs in Thailand and me and the wife never play it.i know of many farang that have wives that spend massive amounts on it and they don't even know it.they are that stupid they will spend 10,000b to win 2,000b and think they have won.only yesterday a pal told me his mates mrs has won 40,000b but don't mention it to him as he don't know she plays the lottery.meanwhile he's scratching his head thinking about where's all his norway pension going each month and he's clueless to it all.

i know of many women that have actually gambled there farang boyfriends away by running up massive debts.they see farang money as free money.

Lottery is playing against the odds which translates to stupidity. At least some get a little entertainment value out of it for the excitement of waiting for the numbers.

3 hours ago, Orton Rd said:

Must be the worst value lottery in the world as well as the most inconvenient to play. If you want certain numbers you have to go out hunting for them, unless you play the illegal lottery which is a huge business as well but at least you can pick your numbers. One day you will be able to go into 7/11, pick your numbers and walk out with the printed off ticket, one day Thailand will catch up.

 

Lottery players are not interested in value.

 

Quote

People Do Not Exercise Rationality in Lottery GamblingResearchers, particularly economists, generally assume rationality and point out that, at anexpected value of 50 cents to each dollar of purchase price, buying lottery tickets is a baddeal. The instances when the expected value exceeded the purchase price were very rare(Matheson2001). It is possible that the lottery gamblers do not use rationality or expectedvalue in their gambling; participants with knowledge of mathematics had more erroneousperceptions of gambling (Pelletier and Ladouceur2007). Recent studies showed thatimprovement in knowledge and skill in gambling odds was not associated with anydecreases in actual gambling behavior (Williams and Connolly2006). Gamblers seemed toswitch off their rational belief during gambling and switch it on again after gambling(Sevigny and Ladoucer2003).

http://walkerd.people.cofc.edu/360/AcademicArticles/LotteryReviewJGS.pdf

Down here the Pollies (word ) going around that one party pays THB 500 and an other one is paying THB 2000 if they vote for them . Guess who's getting the most votes in and around our village some households can make up to THB 12000 + . ????  ????

2 hours ago, digger70 said:

Down here the Pollies (word ) going around that one party pays THB 500 and an other one is paying THB 2000 if they vote for them . Guess who's getting the most votes in and around our village some households can make up to THB 12000 + . ????  ????

 

We have seen this happen at every election and what we know is that people take the money and then vote for who they want to, they can offer what they like outside but as they cannot follow you in they have no idea who you voted for.