Thai Baht Hits New Nine-year High

[george]

Thai baht hits new nine-year high

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.

The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.

The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.

--AFP 2007-03-14

[luangtom]

Thai baht hits new nine-year high

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.

The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.

The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.

--AFP 2007-03-14

Does anyone else feel this is giving things a false sense of security? How can this currency hold against

the world's other currencies when there is nothing to promote such activity? A unstable government,

a South in turmoil and discord and a nation under threat of insurgency. What is propping this over-

value up?

Edited March 14, 2007 by luangtom

[jbowman1993]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

[ThaiGoon]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

[pjallittle]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

It's just plain silliness. Kind of like talking about the weather, it's hardly in anyone's control against World currencies. Maybe it just gives Thai banks a sense of importance.

Many other countries have been through much worse, Canada, Germany, USA, UK Australia, to name a few.

[h90]

Thai baht hits new nine-year high

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.

The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.

The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.

--AFP 2007-03-14

Does anyone else feel this is giving things a false sense of security? How can this currency hold against

the world's other currencies when there is nothing to promote such activity? A unstable government,

a South in turmoil and discord and a nation under threat of insurgency. What is propping this over-

value up?

Well the other key currencies also don't look that bright. USD: the disaster in Iraq, danger of attacking Iran, rumours that some countries change from USD-Euro.

While Euro: the countries have all different opinions, some even tell they want to switch back (thats of course only propaganda for the most stupid voter, but not increase confident).

So in that compare the Thai baht does not look that bad.....

[Rdrokit]

Since my pension is in US dollars it does not look good. I have checked some currency trader websites (just google Thia baht vs. USD) and the forcast is not good for the dollar. The projection is by the end of July the rate will be at 32 baht/USD. When I first came here 2 years ago it was 42baht/USD. I think this is not because the baht is doing so good it is because the US dollar is doing so badly. In the past 2 years it went from 1.13 Euro to 1.31 Euro. Thank you President Bush

[manutoo]

in offshore market (ie: outside Thailand, so every other countries in the world), 1 USB = ~33 Bahts, since several weeks, with a top hit at around 32.6b :

http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi?template...=USD&To=THB

http://www.x-rates.com/d/THB/USD/graph30.html

[cosmont]

Thai baht hits new nine-year high

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.

The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.

The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.

--AFP 2007-03-14

Does anyone else feel this is giving things a false sense of security? How can this currency hold against

the world's other currencies when there is nothing to promote such activity? A unstable government,

a South in turmoil and discord and a nation under threat of insurgency. What is propping this over-

value up?

Well the other key currencies also don't look that bright. USD: the disaster in Iraq, danger of attacking Iran, rumours that some countries change from USD-Euro.

While Euro: the countries have all different opinions, some even tell they want to switch back (thats of course only propaganda for the most stupid voter, but not increase confident).

So in that compare the Thai baht does not look that bad.....

Bad news

Nothing can justify that the monkey money is so high, Euro is going down too with USD (43.6B)

Thai economy is not stable at moment, everyone have to be careful about investing in Thailand now

Edited March 14, 2007 by cosmont

[Hurricane51]

If you look at the past year, the baht's gains have been mostly against the US dollar. Here are Bangkok Bank's comparison of exchange rates for buying of TT (Telegraphic Transfers).

14-Mar-2006

$US: 39.05

GB Pound: 67.55

Euro: 46.58

$Aus: 28.51

14-Mar-2007

$US: 35.01

GB Pound: 67.41

Euro: 46.05

$Aus: 27.26

This says more about the weakening $US than about the baht. And it says a lot about the Iraqi war costs, which is currently costing the US taxpayers $1.5 BILLION PER DAY! As they say, a billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money.

[carlwhile]

Since my pension is in US dollars it does not look good. I have checked some currency trader websites (just google Thia baht vs. USD) and the forcast is not good for the dollar. The projection is by the end of July the rate will be at 32 baht/USD. When I first came here 2 years ago it was 42baht/USD. I think this is not because the baht is doing so good it is because the US dollar is doing so badly. In the past 2 years it went from 1.13 Euro to 1.31 Euro. Thank you President Bush

I understood that the Thai govt. was proping up the baht by pumping loads of money into the market to support the currency as required, as well as the current trading restrictions?

There is a big difference between the ofshore exchange rate and the onshore rate.

Couple this with the investment market blues here, the all but dead housing market, and lack of direction from the govt. and the picture is not very bright for the not too distant future.

Only the big housing project companies keep telling you how good it is and you should buy now, but they would, wouldn't they.!!

It will reach a point where the baht will collapse if the govt. does not get the policy right very soon as confidence is waning fast.

Most foreign money has left for safer regions, foreign house buyers are scared to buy, foreign companies holding houses are very worried, and foreigners are frightened to bring money in in case there is yet another change of rules and they lose it all.

Never mind the 30% witholding....

Add the unrest in the south and possible bomb attacks elsewhere.....

Big business is looking elsewhere to develope and all short/medium term signs look very negative at the minute, all these factors are only just starting to creep into the market and as always it will take time to surface.

The trouble is the Thai govt. just seems to be content to let it happen, they are only concerned with the welfare of the Thai people, so if the foreigner should lose out..tough luck..after all you are only a visitor here??!!

[ThaiGoon]

If you look at the past year, the baht's gains have been mostly against the US dollar. Here are Bangkok Bank's comparison of exchange rates for buying of TT (Telegraphic Transfers).

14-Mar-2006

$US: 39.05

GB Pound: 67.55

Euro: 46.58

$Aus: 28.51

14-Mar-2007

$US: 35.01

GB Pound: 67.41

Euro: 46.05

$Aus: 27.26

This says more about the weakening $US than about the baht. And it says a lot about the Iraqi war costs, which is currently costing the US taxpayers $1.5 BILLION PER DAY! As they say, a billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money.

Great stuff, Hurricane.

[ThaiGoon]

Since my pension is in US dollars it does not look good. I have checked some currency trader websites (just google Thia baht vs. USD) and the forcast is not good for the dollar. The projection is by the end of July the rate will be at 32 baht/USD. When I first came here 2 years ago it was 42baht/USD. I think this is not because the baht is doing so good it is because the US dollar is doing so badly. In the past 2 years it went from 1.13 Euro to 1.31 Euro. Thank you President Bush

I understood that the Thai govt. was proping up the baht by pumping loads of money into the market to support the currency as required, as well as the current trading restrictions?

There is a big difference between the ofshore exchange rate and the onshore rate.

Couple this with the investment market blues here, the all but dead housing market, and lack of direction from the govt. and the picture is not very bright for the not too distant future.

Only the big housing project companies keep telling you how good it is and you should buy now, but they would, wouldn't they.!!

It will reach a point where the baht will collapse if the govt. does not get the policy right very soon as confidence is waning fast.

Most foreign money has left for safer regions, foreign house buyers are scared to buy, foreign companies holding houses are very worried, and foreigners are frightened to bring money in in case there is yet another change of rules and they lose it all.

Never mind the 30% witholding....

Add the unrest in the south and possible bomb attacks elsewhere.....

Big business is looking elsewhere to develope and all short/medium term signs look very negative at the minute, all these factors are only just starting to creep into the market and as always it will take time to surface.

The trouble is the Thai govt. just seems to be content to let it happen, they are only concerned with the welfare of the Thai people, so if the foreigner should lose out..tough luck..after all you are only a visitor here??!!

You are right. It's all doom and gloom.

http://www.bangkokpost.net/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=117376

Fujitsu to build B15.8 bln factory

(dpa) - Japan's Fujitsu conglomerate plans to invest 15.8 billion baht ($439 million) in a new hard-disk drive plant in Thailand despite the country's instable political situation, media reports said on Monday.

Fujitsu (Thailand) Company, the Thai subsidiary of the Japanese electronics manufacturer, received the approval of Thailand's Board of Investment (BOI) to go ahead with the project last month.

Once fully operational the plant will have a capacity to produce 70 million units per annum and will employ more than 13,000 people.

BOI Secretary-General Satit Charnjavanakul cited the Fujitsu investment as proof that foreign investors do not regard the current political instability and fluctuations of the baht currency as impediments to investment in Thailand.

[gregor200]

I think the Thai Baht, as well as the free floating currencies of Asian Countries like Vietnam, is the gambling zone for chinese speculants. As long as the Thai Baht is moving up against the USD, they stay in the game.

[Pattayatony]

Thai baht hits new nine-year high

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.

The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.

The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.

--AFP 2007-03-14

Come on Topfield where are you when we need you????

[bendix]

Despite my salary being determined in US dollars and paid in Baht and despite all my cash reserves being in either Australian dollars or NZ dollars (including the proceeds of a house sale two weeks ago), I'm not too worried about this. It's annoying, yes, but not earth-shattering.

Whenever you see headlines like 'Nine Year Highs' it only becomes a matter of time before corrections occur. The more the baht strengthens, the higher it climbs on the back of nothing, the harder and more likely it is to fall.

It's just a matter of time.

And I'd like to correct the guy who said it's only rallied against the US dollar. Not true. It's strengthened almost as much against the Aussie, Kiwi, Euro and Sterling albeit not on the exact year to year time scale. It wasnt long ago that 1 $A bought 31 baht and a Kiwi bought 28 baht. Both have fallen 10-15% from that.

[andook]

"Cash from Chaos" like the old Sex Pistols maxim?

Bad news for exporters and retirees though.

[Hurricane51]

Since my pension is in US dollars it does not look good. I have checked some currency trader websites (just google Thia baht vs. USD) and the forcast is not good for the dollar. The projection is by the end of July the rate will be at 32 baht/USD. When I first came here 2 years ago it was 42baht/USD. I think this is not because the baht is doing so good it is because the US dollar is doing so badly. In the past 2 years it went from 1.13 Euro to 1.31 Euro. Thank you President Bush

I understood that the Thai govt. was proping up the baht by pumping loads of money into the market to support the currency as required, as well as the current trading restrictions?

There is a big difference between the ofshore exchange rate and the onshore rate.

Couple this with the investment market blues here, the all but dead housing market, and lack of direction from the govt. and the picture is not very bright for the not too distant future.

Only the big housing project companies keep telling you how good it is and you should buy now, but they would, wouldn't they.!!

It will reach a point where the baht will collapse if the govt. does not get the policy right very soon as confidence is waning fast.

Most foreign money has left for safer regions, foreign house buyers are scared to buy, foreign companies holding houses are very worried, and foreigners are frightened to bring money in in case there is yet another change of rules and they lose it all.

Never mind the 30% witholding....

Add the unrest in the south and possible bomb attacks elsewhere.....

Big business is looking elsewhere to develope and all short/medium term signs look very negative at the minute, all these factors are only just starting to creep into the market and as always it will take time to surface.

The trouble is the Thai govt. just seems to be content to let it happen, they are only concerned with the welfare of the Thai people, so if the foreigner should lose out..tough luck..after all you are only a visitor here??!!

Actually, the government is not propping up the baht -- it needs no propping up. That's what the government tried to do in 1997, and it was a losing battle. The baht went from 25 per 1 $US dollar (which it had been linked to for years) and was allowed to float, eventually hitting a high of about 50 per 1 $US. It meant that the Thai people (and anyone relying on the baht as their money source) had about 1/2 the buying power. If you had US dollars, you suddenly had about twice the buying power.

The biggest danger (and there are many) of the strong baht is that Thailand's goods are getting more expensive to the biggest consumer nation: The US. And this is a particularly bad time to face that prospect, with China and now Vietnam rushing in to fill any gap left by Thai exporters. Which has a domino effect, but that's another story entirely, and one which I'm not qualified to comment on.

[SmokeandIce]

As I am reading this, there are 296 other people also here. I think this has become a major interest for most expatriates living in Thailand. I think we are all just trying to figure out where the Baht stops and what to expect.

[ThaiGoon]

It will be very interesting to see what happens after 30% withholding rule is actually lifted. What kind of measures will Chalongphob use to stabilize Baht (besides lowering the interest rates)? And (of course) how effectve will they be? Hmmmm...

[maxman71]

Thai baht hits new nine-year high

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.

The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.

The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.

--AFP 2007-03-14

Does anyone else feel this is giving things a false sense of security? How can this currency hold against

the world's other currencies when there is nothing to promote such activity? A unstable government,

a South in turmoil and discord and a nation under threat of insurgency. What is propping this over-

value up?

As a professional trader in the US stock index futures markets whol lives and work in Thailand, I also follow the Thai baht market as I have a sizeable chunk in Thai baht in the bank. I moved a bunch of US$'s into baht back in Dec 2005, when the US$ was worth about 41 baht. I too, have been curious as to why the baht has been appreciating more against the buck than any other currency over tha last 1+ years. Here is my theory:

Forget about currency controls, ad nauseum...money goes where it wants to. Now, as I live in Nakhom Pathom and I observe that there is a substantial investment in Thailand by the Chinese. Lot's of Chinese owned factories, Chinese land developers out here in the countryside, etc. I think the professional Forex traders are using the Thai baht as a "surrogate" currency for the Chinese RMB. Since the Chinese RMB valuations are tightly controlled by the Chinese gov't, traders are going to find some way to make money off the obvious true under-valuation of the RMB. Given China's large trade relationship with Thailand, and that Thailand still represents the most free-market economy of many of China's SE Asia neighbors/trading partners, it makes a good vehicle to exploit the RMB's under valuation.

The REAL risk to Thailand's economy is not currency controls or the befuddled Thai Generalissimos...it is a Bali-style terrorist attack in Phuket, Koh Samui, Pattaya, BKK, etc. If something like that happens, you can kiss off the tourist trade and a good chunk of foreign investment in Thailand...and the Thais know it.

[longway]

Thai baht hits new nine-year high

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.

The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.

The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.

--AFP 2007-03-14

Does anyone else feel this is giving things a false sense of security? How can this currency hold against

the world's other currencies when there is nothing to promote such activity? A unstable government,

a South in turmoil and discord and a nation under threat of insurgency. What is propping this over-

value up?

Well the other key currencies also don't look that bright. USD: the disaster in Iraq, danger of attacking Iran, rumours that some countries change from USD-Euro.

While Euro: the countries have all different opinions, some even tell they want to switch back (thats of course only propaganda for the most stupid voter, but not increase confident).

So in that compare the Thai baht does not look that bad.....

Bad news

Nothing can justify that the monkey money is so high, Euro is going down too with USD (43.6B)

Thai economy is not stable at moment, everyone have to be careful about investing in Thailand now

dont clean ur ears whatever u do, ur brain might fall out.

[Master of the court]

Thai baht hits new nine-year high

BANGKOK: -- The Thai baht hit a new nine-year high against the dollar on Wednesday amid growing speculation that the army-backed government will soon lift controversial currency controls, dealers said.

The Thai currency reached 35.07 to the dollar in early morning trade, up from Tuesday's finish at 35.14-15.

The baht has risen nearly 12 percent over the past year, prompting the government to impose the capital rules in December in a bid to halt the currency's rise which has been dampening exports.

--AFP 2007-03-14

Does anyone else feel this is giving things a false sense of security? How can this currency hold against

the world's other currencies when there is nothing to promote such activity? A unstable government,

a South in turmoil and discord and a nation under threat of insurgency. What is propping this over-

value up?

Well the other key currencies also don't look that bright. USD: the disaster in Iraq, danger of attacking Iran, rumours that some countries change from USD-Euro.

While Euro: the countries have all different opinions, some even tell they want to switch back (thats of course only propaganda for the most stupid voter, but not increase confident).

So in that compare the Thai baht does not look that bad.....

Bad news

Nothing can justify that the monkey money is so high, Euro is going down too with USD (43.6B)

Thai economy is not stable at moment, everyone have to be careful about investing in Thailand now

dont clean ur ears whatever u do, ur brain might fall out.

Dont worry.........the Baht will go down, next week........ofcourse.......I already told them to do so........maybe Tuesday or Wednesday, OK ?

[chiang mai]

If you look at the past year, the baht's gains have been mostly against the US dollar. Here are Bangkok Bank's comparison of exchange rates for buying of TT (Telegraphic Transfers).

14-Mar-2006

$US: 39.05

GB Pound: 67.55

Euro: 46.58

$Aus: 28.51

14-Mar-2007

$US: 35.01

GB Pound: 67.41

Euro: 46.05

$Aus: 27.26

This says more about the weakening $US than about the baht. And it says a lot about the Iraqi war costs, which is currently costing the US taxpayers $1.5 BILLION PER DAY! As they say, a billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money.

There's something not quite 100% with those figures. I track GBP and the rate has never been that low during the past year. GBP has traded consistently in the 70 to 75 range during 2006, onshore. During the recent climb in the dollar it has matched a climb by all Asian currencies so I'm not sure about the data shown here.

[Sing_Sling]

As far as reasons go, isn't the BoT buying up baht on the market? Isn't it in Thailand's interest to have a strong baht to buy in 'cheaper' oil to help fund the diesel market . . . keeping the peasants happy by continuing the cheap price of their fule is a major concern for the government.

Could be wrong, but it may be one of the factors.

[JiveTalker]

If you look at the past year, the baht's gains have been mostly against the US dollar. Here are Bangkok Bank's comparison of exchange rates for buying of TT (Telegraphic Transfers).

14-Mar-2006

$US: 39.05

GB Pound: 67.55

Euro: 46.58

$Aus: 28.51

14-Mar-2007

$US: 35.01

GB Pound: 67.41

Euro: 46.05

$Aus: 27.26

This says more about the weakening $US than about the baht. And it says a lot about the Iraqi war costs, which is currently costing the US taxpayers $1.5 BILLION PER DAY! As they say, a billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you're talking real money.

There's something not quite 100% with those figures. I track GBP and the rate has never been that low during the past year. GBP has traded consistently in the 70 to 75 range during 2006, onshore. During the recent climb in the dollar it has matched a climb by all Asian currencies so I'm not sure about the data shown here.

Hmm I was thinking the same thing. On xe.com the baht was about 68-71 to the GBP last year and today it's round about 63. The lowest I have ever seen it. Friends here on holiday have noticed that their money doesn't go quite as far as it did.

[bendix]

The BOT is as keen to weaken the baht as any of us.

Today's Bkk Post talks of a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee yesterday in which it was urged to cut interest rates by as much as one percent over the next few months in an attempt to weaken it.

[Old Man River]

As far as reasons go, isn't the BoT buying up baht on the market? Isn't it in Thailand's interest to have a strong baht to buy in 'cheaper' oil to help fund the diesel market . . . keeping the peasants happy by continuing the cheap price of their fule is a major concern for the government.

Could be wrong, but it may be one of the factors.

The BOT is not buying up THB, but rather doing the opposite (these things are easy to confuse). They want to protect agricultural exports, hence, would be happier if the THB was weakening. To accomplish this, they are selling THB and receiving USD's, which is why their foreign exchange reserves are on the increase.

While you are correct that normally the government does want to mitigate high oil prices at the pump (thankfully petroleum prices have dropped), they normally do this through subsidies.

[paulmw]

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

Yes will do wonders for tourism?

Remember when it was 43 B to the UKP not many tourists then.

Are we going the same way again.

Paul

[PeaceBlondie]

Gasoline prices (for 91 non-ethanol benzene) has gone back up, well above 27 baht to the liter here in smoke-filled Chiang Mai. I booked a return trip on Aerlingus last night, thinking they were quoting euros (they're the flagship of Ireland), but it was pounds, and before taxes. Then I charged it in dollars at exchange rate of $2.02, plus a 3.75% service fee! Ouch.

Since I have never understood forex, I assume there's a conspiracy. I suspect that this entire Asian currency bubble is caused by some arcane speculative thingamabob, like derivatives of porkbellies delivered in Orange County by illegal Samoans, denominated in yen divided by rubles plus 3.75%. And when the speculators decide to change investments, the Asian forex market will be a shambles.

Dr. Tarisa and the rest of the Ph.D. economists in Thailand may discover that they have been played for the fool. Or, they might make a trillion yen profit; who knows?