UK banks say business investment slowing further ahead of Brexit

[snoop1130]

UK banks say business investment slowing further ahead of Brexit

By Sinead Cruise, Iain Withers

 

FILE PHOTO: Hot air balloons fly over Canary Wharf during the Lord Mayor's Hot Air Balloon Regatta, in London, Britain June 9, 2019. REUTERS/Simon Dawson

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s major banks have seen a growing number of business customers delay decisions on investments and borrowing in recent weeks, as the probability of a disorderly exit from the European Union inches higher.

 

Britain’s banks have largely played up the resilience of businesses since the June 2016 referendum decision to leave the EU, but senior executives speaking to Reuters say that in recent weeks they have seen a dip in firms’ activity levels.

 

The country’s largest lenders - Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) (RBS.L), Lloyds (LLOY.L), Barclays (BARC.L), HSBC (HSBA.L), and the UK arm of Spain’s Santander (SAN.MC) - are all set to publish half-year results in the coming weeks, with investors watching for any signs of strain.

 

Bankers responsible for tens of billions of pounds in business debt told Reuters that activity among corporate customers had fallen in recent months, as the two candidates to be Britain’s next prime minister have both said they are ready to take the country out of the EU without a withdrawal deal.

 

“The world has changed a bit,” one bank executive who asked not to be named told Reuters. “There is a slowdown across the commercial piece. It started off with people holding off investment, now they’re just not transacting.”

 

An executive at a second bank said more big corporates were delaying investment decisions, with the conversion rate of the bank’s potential new commercial business pipeline falling from 70% to 50% in recent months, although lending to smaller firms was holding up.

 

The executives said they were preparing for a potentially disorderly Brexit, including refining ‘early warning’ systems to identify struggling clients and spot possible weak links in their supply chains.

 

Frontrunner to be the next prime minister, Boris Johnson, has committed to Britain leaving the EU by the Oct. 31 deadline with or without a deal, concerning firms that want to see an orderly departure to avoid disruption to cross-border trade.

 

RBS, HSBC and Barclays have all previously taken multi-million pound provisions against potential future loan losses if the economy dips. The Bank of England has said lenders are resilient enough to cope with a no-deal Brexit.

 

Banks are also braced for an expected spike in costs for meeting claims for mis-sold insurance known as PPI, which has already cost more than 35 billion pounds ,ahead of an August deadline for claims.

 

Britain’s economy grew more than expected in May, according to official statistics published last week, but economists warned the outlook remained weak.

 

Small businesses in Britain are planning the least investment in two years, a survey by the Federation of Small Businesses found this month.

 

GETTING ON WITH IT

 

One bank executive said communication efforts with business customers about potential Brexit disruption had been stepped back up after a lull following the extension of the original departure date from March 29.

 

This lender was trying to offer clients products to help, such as extending supplier financing and currency hedging, but said take up had been slow.

 

Britain’s state-backed RBS has committed 5 billion pounds of its 6 billion pound small business growth fund - partly designed to help businesses out with Brexit – although only a small proportion of this has been drawn down, a source familiar with the situation said.

 

RBS has contacted 15,000 businesses to assess their potential exposures, mapping risks across supply chains from big retailers like Sainsbury’s (SBRY.L) and Tesco (TSCO.L) through to farmers and putting in extra credit lines where necessary.

 

The political impasse is frustrating lenders, who believe the Bank of England and Treasury are likely to step in to boost the economy if Britain does leave without a deal.

 

“I think there will be a raft of government and central bank measures to support the economy (in a no deal scenario) because they’ll be needed,” said Ian Smith, chief financial officer at mid-sized lender CYBG (CYBGC.L).

 

Jeremy Hunt, Johnson’s rival to be prime minister, has pledged a 6 billion pound no-deal Brexit fund to help farmers and the fishing industry cope with any fallout.

 

Although businesses are delaying big spending decisions, this is creating pent-up demand, the executive at the second lender said.

 

“If I’m in my optimistic frame of mind, and my glass half full, you could get a very positive Brexit bounce, because people know all the things that they want to do, but they’re just not pressing the buttons.”

 

-- © Copyright Reuters 2019-07-15

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[Mavideol]

3 minutes ago, snoop1130 said:

“There is a slowdown across the commercial piece. It started off with people holding off investment, now they’re just not transacting.”

brexit reality starts to hit the fan.... pound downhill, business downhill, consumer confidence downhill oh but Boris is uphill... old saying "anything goes up will have (sooner or later) to come down "

[damascase]

Just over 40 minutes now, and still nobody denies it or blames it to the remainers and/or the EU? What’s happening?

[bomber]

4 minutes ago, damascase said:

Just over 40 minutes now, and still nobody denies it or blames it to the remainers and/or the EU? What’s happening?

they have all gone to visit tommy in his cell

[Loiner]

Woe, woe and thrice woe. Sorry, but you are all too late with your Project Fear. Brexit is happening anyway.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

[ivor bigun]

brexit reality starts to hit the fan.... pound downhill, business downhill, consumer confidence downhill oh but Boris is uphill... old saying "anything goes up will have (sooner or later) to come down "

But the dollor is down,the euro is down ,most currencies are down ,i know blame Brexit.

Sent from my SM-A720F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app

[Thairealist]

 

 The Bankers have said so, thus it must be true. 55555

[bomber]

2 hours ago, ivor bigun said:

But the dollor is down,the euro is down ,most currencies are down ,i know blame Brexit.

Sent from my SM-A720F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

pound is well down on the euro,any idea's why?

[beautifulthailand99]

Marin Wolff of the FT doesn't mince his words...

The British have played an outsized role in the world. But what might be the future of England on its own, at open loggerheads with the EU? One option would be to follow behind President Donald Trump’s unilateralist and solipsistic US, probably as another enemy of the EU. The Corbyn option would presumably be to support any notionally leftwing tyrant he can find. Can a country dithering between Ayn Rand and Leon Trotsky truly count in the world? What justification can there be for its staying on as a permanent member of the UN Security Council?

What is happening is not worthy of a serious country. The conclusion is that the UK is no longer such a country.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/de6e2b14-a3bc-11e9-974c-ad1c6ab5efd1?segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6&fbclid=IwAR1Ocr2JQXBrwVjh8V97gnJQQRl_gslMYd8EpITR_okYkWifA5HbxjtsuCg

[bristolboy]

3 hours ago, Thairealist said:

 

 The Bankers have said so, thus it must be true. 55555

Were you of the same mind when they were claiming  business was holding up since brexit?

[bomber]

8 hours ago, Loiner said:

Woe, woe and thrice woe. Sorry, but you are all too late with your Project Fear. Brexit is happening anyway.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

facts show it didnt happen and highly unlikely to happen,luckily it will save the teddyboy having to pay £1.30 for a beer at his local 7/11 in issan,iam sure he will drink to that ????   

[alant]

15 hours ago, Mavideol said:

brexit reality starts to hit the fan.... pound downhill, business downhill, consumer confidence downhill oh but Boris is uphill... old saying "anything goes up will have (sooner or later) to come down "

the £ is down yes, but we are still in the EU, it has been declining for years

[OneMoreFarang]

Boris promised a free trade agreement with the USA by the 31st October.

We all should be happy that Boris is such a reliable expert who will get it done.

I am surprised he didn't start the slogan Make Britain Great Again. But then, first people would have to realize that Briton is not great anymore since a long time already. Denial at it's finest.

[bomber]

1 hour ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Boris promised a free trade agreement with the USA by the 31st October.

We all should be happy that Boris is such a reliable expert who will get it done.

I am surprised he didn't start the slogan Make Britain Great Again. But then, first people would have to realize that Briton is not great anymore since a long time already. Denial at it's finest.

didnt Boris once come out with a <deleted> bizzness statement? ,iam sure he did,nice to know the UK is in good hands

[Rimmer]

An off topic personal attack has been removed also replies and the troll post that started this spat

[Basil B]

15 hours ago, ivor bigun said:

But the dollor is down,the euro is down ,most currencies are down ,i know blame Brexit.

Sent from my SM-A720F using Thailand Forum - Thaivisa mobile app
 

But that is not the story...

 

Businesses just do not know whether to invest, and invest in what. 

[sawadee1947]

19 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Jeremy Hunt, Johnson’s rival to be prime minister, has pledged a 6 billion pound no-deal Brexit fund to help farmers and the fishing industry cope with any fallout.

Hey, it's not a gift, not for free. You are to pay your debts. 

It's just BS, and will not stop the down turn of economy and rising prices by increasing debts. 

[Baerboxer]

19 hours ago, Loiner said:

Woe, woe and thrice woe. Sorry, but you are all too late with your Project Fear. Brexit is happening anyway.


Sent from my iPhone using Thaivisa Connect

 

Same mentality that stopped putting enough lifeboats on the Titanic - won't ever sink so don't worry; and leadership reminiscent of WW1 mentality - "we all have to make sacrifices - only the politicians won't be.

[HauptmannUK]

The public are unaware of what a complete mess the government is in. I don't just mean the politics, but the basic machinery that runs the country.

I used to work on Technology Transfer projects in the Department of International Trade (DIT) until 2018.

In order to cut costs (i.e. staff) we had calls for voluntary severance in 2015, 2016 and 2017. I applied in December 2017 and left in mid-2018. The deal was good for me but the main reason I left is that I didn't want any part of the train wreck I could seen unfolding. One of my last projects was a trade mission to Hong Kong around Easter 2018 with Liam Fox - words cannot describe the incompetence and bungling of Davis, Fox and Johnson. They have been described as a Dad's Army - but that is too kind. The UK DIT now has about 30% fewer staff than before the referendum. The most experienced staff have left. I cannot emphasise enough how dire the situation is. The UK is totally unprepared for Brexit. A no deal will turn the UK into the Greece of Northern Europe.

[bomber]

22 minutes ago, HauptmannUK said:

The public are unaware of what a complete mess the government is in. I don't just mean the politics, but the basic machinery that runs the country.

I used to work on Technology Transfer projects in the Department of International Trade (DIT) until 2018.

In order to cut costs (i.e. staff) we had calls for voluntary severance in 2015, 2016 and 2017. I applied in December 2017 and left in mid-2018. The deal was good for me but the main reason I left is that I didn't want any part of the train wreck I could seen unfolding. One of my last projects was a trade mission to Hong Kong around Easter 2018 with Liam Fox - words cannot describe the incompetence and bungling of Davis, Fox and Johnson. They have been described as a Dad's Army - but that is too kind. The UK DIT now has about 30% fewer staff than before the referendum. The most experienced staff have left. I cannot emphasise enough how dire the situation is. The UK is totally unprepared for Brexit. A no deal will turn the UK into the Greece of Northern Europe.

Does that mean it will be warmer? 

[Thairealist]

12 hours ago, Baerboxer said:

 

Same mentality that stopped putting enough lifeboats on the Titanic - won't ever sink so don't worry; and leadership reminiscent of WW1 mentality - "we all have to make sacrifices - only the politicians won't be.

 

 

 But the E.U. Is our Titanic, that’s why we voted to abanded ship.

Unfortunately the crew (M.P’s). are trying to stop us. But we will prevail.

[bomber]

51 minutes ago, Thairealist said:

 

 

 But the E.U. Is our Titanic, that’s why we voted to abanded ship.

Unfortunately the crew (M.P’s). are trying to stop us. But we will prevail.

thats what tommy and farage had you believe,they brainwashed you,the EU will out live farage,tommy,Bj,JRM,Trump,me and YOU,btw how are you enjoying todays new 21 year low for the pound v Baht ????    thats reality MrRealist

[beautifulthailand99]

11 hours ago, HauptmannUK said:

The public are unaware of what a complete mess the government is in. I don't just mean the politics, but the basic machinery that runs the country.

I used to work on Technology Transfer projects in the Department of International Trade (DIT) until 2018.

In order to cut costs (i.e. staff) we had calls for voluntary severance in 2015, 2016 and 2017. I applied in December 2017 and left in mid-2018. The deal was good for me but the main reason I left is that I didn't want any part of the train wreck I could seen unfolding. One of my last projects was a trade mission to Hong Kong around Easter 2018 with Liam Fox - words cannot describe the incompetence and bungling of Davis, Fox and Johnson. They have been described as a Dad's Army - but that is too kind. The UK DIT now has about 30% fewer staff than before the referendum. The most experienced staff have left. I cannot emphasise enough how dire the situation is. The UK is totally unprepared for Brexit. A no deal will turn the UK into the Greece of Northern Europe.

If we're lucky - going to be a larf though for those cannily invested. Let them eat Brexit. Will flush out the impoverished riff-raff from Thailand and that's one positive worth paying for. 

[bomber]

9 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

If we're lucky - going to be a larf though for those cannily invested. Let them eat Brexit. Will flush out the impoverished riff-raff from Thailand and that's one positive worth paying for. 

do you mean the skint baldy singha slobs who were banging there changs on the tables in the new plaza shouting out means out,and they need us more for 3 years while predicting 50+ soon as the EU was doomed ???????? as farage would say "not laffing now are they"   HOME MEANS HOME 

[nkg]

On 7/15/2019 at 5:57 PM, bomber said:

pound is well down on the euro,any idea's why?

 

Same as it was 6 months ago. Same as it was 3 months after the Brexit vote, too.

 

Did you make any posts about how the pound was rising against the euro between January 2019 and March 2019? ????

 

 

 

 

 

[nkg]

2 hours ago, bomber said:

thats what tommy and farage had you believe,they brainwashed you,the EU will out live farage,tommy,Bj,JRM,Trump,me and YOU,btw how are you enjoying todays new 21 year low for the pound v Baht ????    thats reality MrRealist

 

Erm .... I don't think you've thought this through, bomber. Almost every currency in the world is "enjoying" a new 21 year low vs the baht! ????

 

US dollar monthly average against Thai baht

1/1998    52.657055
7/2019    30.744882

 

Euro monthly average against Thai baht

1/1998    56.871117
7/2019    34.628917

 

 

[Mavideol]

9 hours ago, Thairealist said:

 

 

 But the E.U. Is our Titanic, that’s why we voted to abanded ship.

Unfortunately the crew (M.P’s). are trying to stop us. But we will prevail.

not enough float rings,  you all sink 555

[soalbundy]

On 7/15/2019 at 6:41 PM, damascase said:

Just over 40 minutes now, and still nobody denies it or blames it to the remainers and/or the EU? What’s happening?

yes indeed where are all the 'fear tactics' 'fake news' and of course,  'just get on with it we will be fine'. After all we are British, the world owes us a living, yuk!

[soalbundy]

23 hours ago, Basil B said:

But that is not the story...

 

Businesses just do not know whether to invest, and invest in what. 

British industry ????????, sorry I'll get my coat.

[bomber]

8 hours ago, nkg said:

 

Same as it was 6 months ago. Same as it was 3 months after the Brexit vote, too.

 

Did you make any posts about how the pound was rising against the euro between January 2019 and March 2019? ????

 

 

 

 

 

sorry to tell you but the pound is down on 6 months ago,1 year ago please get your facts correct and stop looking for 1-7 days in them periods when it "might" of fractionally being higher. against the baht it is at a 21 year low,come on tell us but but but it was lower in 1985